• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multinomial distribution

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A Study on the Choice Factors and Possibility of Traditional Market - Compared to Other Competing Markets Based on Consumer Behavior Analyses - (소비행태분석을 통한 전통시장과 경쟁시장 간 선택요인 및 이용확률 비교분석)

  • Kim, Hyun-Joong;Cho, Kyu-Young;Lee, Seong-Woo
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.81-102
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    • 2010
  • The present study analyzes the choice factors and possibility of traditional and other competing markets through consumer behavior analyses in order to suggest factors that can help reactivate traditional markets. Hence, Multinomial Logit Model is used as it is an optimum model to understand discrete selection. The results suggested some tendencies regarding traditional market. For example, traditional market is more activated when the market is large and has more parking spaces, and when the level of consumer satisfaction is high. While, increased travel distance and time have negative effects on visitor's choice. Governmental supports are turned out to have less to do with the consumer attraction. People with higher incomes tend to prefer other types of market. The results also suggested there is more likelihood of traditional markets being reactivated if the market is not fiercely competing with other types of markets. Internet market is ranked top in consumer's choice possibility, while traditional market is ranked at the bottom. The plausible factors to reactivate traditional market were physical factors(including increasing shops and parking facilities), which is followed by governmental support.

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Projection of Forest Vegetation Change by Applying Future Climate Change Scenario MIROC3.2 A1B (미래 기후변화 시나리오 MIROC3.2 A1B에 따른 우리나라 산림식생분포의 변화 전망)

  • Shin, Hyung-Jin;Park, Geun-Ae;Park, Min-Ji;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.64-75
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    • 2012
  • To predict the future distribution of forest vegetation, the present forest stand distributions of South Korea were represented by multinomial logit model with the following environmental variables: summer average precipitation, the coldest month average temperature, elevation, degree of base saturation, and soil organic matter. The future forest community was predicted by applying the MIROC3.2 hires A1B scenario. The future climate data were downscaled by statistically method. The coldest month average temperature increased $4.4^{\circ}C$, $6.0^{\circ}C$, and $9.4^{\circ}C$, and 3 months average precipitation changed -1.2%, 5.7%, and 5.3% for 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s respectively. For the projected summer precipitation and the coldest temperature, the future deciduous and mixed forests in the study area increased 56.9% and 8.3% and the coniferous forest decreased 11.2% in 2080s based on present.

Supply Chain-based Freight Distribution Channel Choice Model using Distribution Channel Analysis (유통경로분석을 통한 공급사슬기반의 화물유통경로선택모형 개발)

  • Go, Yeong-Seung;Park, Dong-Ju;Kim, Chan-Seong;Kim, Hyeon-Su;Park, Min-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.133-146
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this study is to develop a supply chain-based freight distribution channel choice model considering shippers' logistics behaviors which will be used for freight demand estimation. For this purpose, this study utilized the distribution channel data of the petrochemical and automobile industries collected by KTDB center. The distribution channel choice models for these industries were developed by including transport mode, time, cost, and shipment size. It was found that the multinomial logit model with transport cost, time and shipment size is the best, and as shipment increases, bigger transport mode is preferred. Generally direct distribution channel with small truck was preferred over the one using distribution center and/or big truck.

Estimating the Interim Rate of Votes Earned Based on the Exit Poll Results during the Coverage of Ballot Results by Broadcasters (선거 개표방송에서 출구조사 자료를 활용한 중간 득표율 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Yoon-Dong;Park, Jin-Woo
    • Survey Research
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.141-152
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    • 2011
  • During major elections, three terrestrial broadcasting stations in Korea have covered the progresses of election results by announcing the simple sum of ballot counts of all ballot counting stations. The current approach, however, does not properly reflect the actual ballot count differences by ballot counting location, leading to cause unnecessary but possible confusions. In addition, the current coverage approach restricts the broadcasters from using regional poll data gained through exit polls by letting them to use the significant information on a one-off purpose to announce the initial prediction of the poll results and to fully disregard the exit poll results during the ballot counting process. Based on the understanding, this paper is designed to suggest a Bayesian approach to consolidate the exit poll results with the progressive ballot counting results and announce them as such. The suggested consolidation approach is expected to mitigate or avoid the possible confusions that may arise in connection with the different ballot counting paces by ballot counting station.

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Size Selectivity of a Shrimp Beam Trawl for the Southern Rough Shrimp Trachysalambria curvirostris with the Extended SELECT Method (확장 SELECT 방법에 의한 새우조망의 꽃새우(Trachysalambria curvirostris) 망목 선택성)

  • Park, Chang-Doo;Park, Hae-Hoon;Kim, Jung-Nyun
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.390-396
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    • 2011
  • Southern rough shrimp Trachysalambria curvirostris is exploited mainly by small shrimp beam trawl in coastal regions of Korea. To determine the size selectivity of a shrimp beam trawl for this species, a series of comparative fishing experiments was conducted in the sea adjacent to Geoje Island off the southern cost of Korea in June and November, 2010, using codends with four different mesh sizes(14.2, 17.8, 25.5, and 35.3 mm). The extended Share Each Length's Catch Total(SELECT) analysis method, based on a multinomial distribution, was applied to the fishing data to obtain a master selection curve. The model with the estimated split parameters fit the catch data best. The master selection curve was estimated to be: s(R)=exp(15.183R-7.872)/[1+exp(15.183R-7.872)], where the relative carapace length, R, is the ratio of carapace length to mesh size. The relative carapace length for 50% retention was 0.518, and the selection range was 0.145. The results suggest that codends with a larger mesh size allow more small-sized shrimps to escape.

Goodness-of-fit tests for a proportional odds model

  • Lee, Hyun Yung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.1465-1475
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    • 2013
  • The chi-square type test statistic is the most commonly used test in terms of measuring testing goodness-of-fit for multinomial logistic regression model, which has its grouped data (binomial data) and ungrouped (binary) data classified by a covariate pattern. Chi-square type statistic is not a satisfactory gauge, however, because the ungrouped Pearson chi-square statistic does not adhere well to the chi-square statistic and the ungrouped Pearson chi-square statistic is also not a satisfactory form of measurement in itself. Currently, goodness-of-fit in the ordinal setting is often assessed using the Pearson chi-square statistic and deviance tests. These tests involve creating a contingency table in which rows consist of all possible cross-classifications of the model covariates, and columns consist of the levels of the ordinal response. I examined goodness-of-fit tests for a proportional odds logistic regression model-the most commonly used regression model for an ordinal response variable. Using a simulation study, I investigated the distribution and power properties of this test and compared these with those of three other goodness-of-fit tests. The new test had lower power than the existing tests; however, it was able to detect a greater number of the different types of lack of fit considered in this study. I illustrated the ability of the tests to detect lack of fit using a study of aftercare decisions for psychiatrically hospitalized adolescents.

Mesh selectivity of a dome-shaped pot for finely-striate buccinum Buccinum striatissimum in the eastern coastal waters of Korea (반구형 통발에 대한 물레고둥 (Buccinum striatissimum)의 망목 선택성)

  • Park, Chang-Doo;Bae, Jae-Hyun;Cho, Sam-Kwang;Kim, In-Ok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.284-291
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    • 2014
  • Finely-striate buccinum Buccinum striatissimum, a species of whelks, is caught mainly by pot in the eastern coastal waters of Korea. In order to determine the size selectivity of pot for the species, comparative fishing experiments were conducted near Yeongil Bay from June to September in 2003 using the dome-shaped pots with different five mesh sizes (17.1, 24.8, 35.3, 39.8, and 48.3 mm). The parameters of logistic equation were estimated by the SELECT (Share Each Length's Catch Total) method based on a multinomial distribution. The model with the estimated split parameter was found to fit the catch data best. The master selection curve was estimated to be s (R)=exp (13.044R-16.438)/[1 + exp (13.044R-16.438)], where R is the ratio of shell height to mesh size. The relative shell height of 50% retention was 1.260, and the selection range was 0.168. Enlargement in mesh size of the pot allows more small-sized whelks to escape.

Acceptance of Social Media as a Marketing Tool : A Quantitative Study

  • Hooda, Apeksha;Ankur, Ankur
    • Asian Journal of Business Environment
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.5-12
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - The purpose of current paper is to identify features of advertisements at social media that generate the ad-click and to further identify if these advertisements lead to purchase. If no purchase is made, then reasons for not making purchase are identified. Users' purchase experience after users clicked at advertisements are also studied. Research design, data, and methodology - Research design followed is exploratory research, where various factors leading to ad-clicks and generating purchase at social media platform were explored. Raw data was gathered by means of survey among a sample of 185 respondents in India using online structured questionnaire. GLM model and multinomial regression were used to analyze the data. Results - Several factors including endorsement by friends, advertisement aesthetics, product reviews, and aggressive pricing played major role in generating ad-clicks. Major impediment to purchase on were product misrepresentation in advertisement, false discounts, and site security. Female users clicked more on social media advertisements and made more purchases compared to their male counterpart. Conclusions - Social media advertisements have significant positive effect on buying behavior of online customers. Transactions culminating from social media ad-click generated significant positive experience for social media users. Thus, social media can be effective marketing tool.

Quality of Entrepreneurship and Micro-, Small- and Medium-sized Enterprises' (MSMEs) Financial Performance in Indonesia

  • HANGGRAENI, Dewi;SINAMO, Timothy
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.897-907
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the quality of entrepreneurship - motivation, entrepreneurial orientation, and risk behavior - in relation to the odds of micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises' (MSMEs) financial performance in Indonesia. Additionally, this paper investigates how these qualities apply for the current challenges perceived by MSMEs' entrepreneurs in Indonesia due to Covid-19 crisis; specifically, this paper examines the odds of MSMEs' financial performance during the pandemic in respect to when these qualities are implemented by the entrepreneurs. The empirical data was obtained from an online survey by means of a structured questionnaire. MSMEs surveyed were randomly selected on a national scale. To test the hypotheses, a quantitative approach is employed, using multinomial regression. The main result shows that, under normal economic environment, the more intrinsically-motivated and continuity-driven entrepreneur is, the more likely the MSME will achieve financial growth compared to remaining stagnant. To our surprise, innovativeness leads to less likelihood of MSME's financial growth, suggesting the significance of innovation does not apply to MSMEs in Indonesia. Lastly, MSMEs' risk behavior to operate in a stable business environment is found more likely to result in a better performance and is true for operational and financial risks, but not marketing risks.

Personal Remittances: An Empirical Study in Oman

  • UDDIN, Mohammed Ahmar;ALAM, Md. Shabbir
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.917-929
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    • 2021
  • This study highlights the importance of remittance, the factors which affect the percentage of income remitted, and the investment options available to reduce remittance. For the year 2019, the remittances from Oman totaled $9.1 billion. Oman was among the top remitters with remittance to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of 11.9%. A survey was conducted on 300 resident expats in Oman. The descriptive analysis shows that the maximum remittance percentage is between 21%-40% of income. The multinomial logistic regression results show that outward remittance depends on gender, age, occupation, number of dependent in Oman, and the number of dependent in the home country. Regarding investment, the most preferred investment option is business, followed by real estate and financial services. Age and education are found to affect investment options. This paper tries to fill the literature gap, especially for the case of Oman, by exploring what determines the level of remittance and the preferred choices for retaining funds. This study adds to the existing literature, as no previous study is available regarding how personal factors can influence the level of remittance and investment in a small oil-exporting developing country like Oman. The study will be helpful to policymakers and academicians in devising policies to retain and invest the outwards remittances in Oman.