• 제목/요약/키워드: Multi-step prediction

검색결과 76건 처리시간 0.026초

Prediction of Strong Ground Motion in Moderate-Seismicity Regions Using Deterministic Earthquake Scenarios

  • 강태섭
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제11권4호
    • /
    • pp.25-31
    • /
    • 2007
  • For areas such as the Korean Peninsula, which have moderate seismic activity but no available records of strong ground motion, synthetic seismograms can be used to evaluate ground motion without waiting for a strong earthquake. Such seismograms represent the estimated ground motions expected from a set of possible earthquake scenarios. Local site effects are especially important in assessing the seismic hazard and possible ground motion scenarios for a specific fault. The earthquake source and rupture dynamics can be described as a two-step process of rupture initiation and front propagation controlled by a frictional sliding mechanism. The seismic wavefield propagates through heterogeneous geological media and finally undergoes near-surface modulations such as amplification or deamplification. This is a complex system in which various scales of physical phenomena are integrated. A unified approach incorporates multi-scale problems of dynamic rupture, radiated wave propagation, and site effects into an all-in-one model using a three-dimensional, fourth-order, staggered-grid, finite-difference method. The method explains strong ground motions as products of complex systems that can be modified according to a variety of fine-scale rupture scenarios and friction models. A series of such deterministic earthquake scenarios can shed light on the kind of damage that would result and where it would be located.

Prediction models of the shear modulus of normal or frozen soil-rock mixtures

  • Zhou, Zhong;Yang, Hao;Xing, Kai;Gao, Wenyuan
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
    • /
    • 제15권2호
    • /
    • pp.783-791
    • /
    • 2018
  • In consideration of the mesoscopic structure of soil-rock mixtures in which the rock aggregates are wrapped by soil at normal temperatures, a two-layer embedded model of single-inclusion composite material was built to calculate the shear modulus of soil-rock mixtures. At a freezing temperature, an interface ice interlayer was placed between the soil and rock interface in the mesoscopic structure of the soil-rock mixtures. Considering that, a three-layer embedded model of double-inclusion composite materials and a multi-step multiphase micromechanics model were then built to calculate the shear modulus of the frozen soil-rock mixtures. Given the effect of pore structure of soil-rock mixtures at normal temperatures, its shear modulus was also calculated by using of the three-layer embedded model. Experimental comparison showed that compared with the two-layer embedded model, the effect predicted by the three-layer embedded model of the soil-rock mixtures was better. The shear modulus of the soil-rock mixtures gradually increased with the increase in rock regardless of temperature, and the increment rate of the shear modulus increased rapidly particularly when the rock content ranged from 50% to 70%. The shear modulus of the frozen soil-rock mixtures was nearly 3.7 times higher than that of the soil-rock mixtures at a normal temperature.

Modeling and prediction of buckling behavior of compression members with variability in material and/or section properties

  • Gadalla, M.A.;Abdalla, J.A.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • 제22권5호
    • /
    • pp.631-645
    • /
    • 2006
  • Buckling capacity of compression members may change due to inadvertent changes in the member section dimensions or material properties. This may be the result of repair, modification of section properties or degradation of the material properties. In some occasions, enhancement of buckling capacity of compression members may be achieved through splicing of plates or utilization of composite materials. It is very important for a designer to predict the buckling resistance of the compression member and the important parameters that affect its buckling strength once changes in section and/or material properties took place. This paper presents an analytical approach for determining the buckling capacity of a compression member whose geometric and/or material properties has been altered resulting in a multi-step non-uniform section. This analytical solution accommodates the changes and modifications to the material and/or section properties of the compression member due to the factors mentioned. The analytical solution provides adequate information and a methodology that is useful during the design stage as well as the repair stage of compression members. Three case studies are presented to show that the proposed analytical solution is an efficient method for predicting the buckling strength of compression members that their section and/or material properties have been altered due to splicing, coping, notching, ducting and corrosion.

Recurrent Neural Network Models for Prediction of the inside Temperature and Humidity in Greenhouse

  • Jung, Dae-Hyun;Kim, Hak-Jin;Park, Soo Hyun;Kim, Joon Yong
    • 한국농업기계학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국농업기계학회 2017년도 춘계공동학술대회
    • /
    • pp.135-135
    • /
    • 2017
  • Greenhouse have been developed to provide the plants with good environmental conditions for cultivation crop, two major factors of which are the inside air temperature and humidity. The inside temperature are influenced by the heating systems, ventilators and for systems among others, which in turn are geverned by some type of controller. Likewise, humidity environment is the result of complex mass exchanges between the inside air and the several elements of the greenhouse and the outside boundaries. Most of the existing models are based on the energy balance method and heat balance equation for modelling the heat and mass fluxes and generating dynamic elements. However, greenhouse are classified as complex system, and need to make a sophisticated modeling. Furthermore, there is a difficulty in using classical control methods for complex process system due to the process are non linear and multi-output(MIMO) systems. In order to predict the time evolution of conditions in certain greenhouse as a function, we present here to use of recurrent neural networks(RNN) which has been used to implement the direct dynamics of the inside temperature and inside humidity of greenhouse. For the training, we used algorithm of a backpropagation Through Time (BPTT). Because the environmental parameters are shared by all time steps in the network, the gradient at each output depends not only on the calculations of the current time step, but also the previous time steps. The training data was emulated to 13 input variables during March 1 to 7, and the model was tested with database file of March 8. The RMSE of results of the temperature modeling was $0.976^{\circ}C$, and the RMSE of humidity simulation was 4.11%, which will be given to prove the performance of RNN in prediction of the greenhouse environment.

  • PDF

CalTOX 모델을 이용한 대산 석유화학단지의 활동단계에 따른 벤젠 흡입 노출평가 (Prediction of Inhalation Exposure to Benzene by Activity Stage Using a Caltox Model at the Daesan Petrochemical Complex in South Korea)

  • 이진헌;이민우;박창용;박상현;송영호;김옥;신지훈
    • 한국환경보건학회지
    • /
    • 제48권3호
    • /
    • pp.151-158
    • /
    • 2022
  • Background: Chemical emissions in the environment have rapidly increased with the accelerated industrialization taking place in recent decades. Residents of industrial complexes are concerned about the health risks posed by chemical exposure. Objectives: This study was performed to suggest modeling methods that take into account multimedia and multi-pathways in human exposure and risk assessment. Methods: The concentration of benzene emitted at industrial complexes in Daesan, South Korea and the exposure of local residents was estimated using the Caltox model. The amount of human exposure based on inhalation rate was stochastically predicted for various activity stages such as resting, normal walking, and fast walking. Results: The coefficient of determination (R2) for the CalTOX model efficiency was 0.9676 and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 0.0035, indicating good agreement between predictions and measurements. However, the efficiency index (EI) appeared to be a negative value at -1094.4997. This can be explained as the atmospheric concentration being calculated only from the emissions from industrial facilities in the study area. In the human exposure assessment, the higher the inhalation rate percentile value, the higher the inhalation rate and lifetime average daily dose (LADD) at each activity step. Conclusions: Prediction using the Caltox model might be appropriate for comparing with actual measurements. The LADD of females was higher ratio with an increase in inhalation rate than those of males. This finding would imply that females may be more susceptible to benzene as their inhalation rate increases.

사각 컵 배터리 케이스 바닥 벤트 성형을 위한 단조 금형 설계 (Forging Die Design for Vent Forming of Square Cup Battery Case)

  • 이상훈;권순호;정훈;홍석무
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
    • /
    • 제18권6호
    • /
    • pp.330-335
    • /
    • 2017
  • 최근 자동차 산업에서 전기 모터 연료 전지에 대한 수요가 급증했으며, 연료 전지 케이스로 사용되는 사각형 알루미늄 캔에 대한 수요 또한 증가하고 있다. 직사각형 배터리 케이스의 바닥에 있는 에어 벤트는 비정상적으로 높은 압력이 발생할 때 미리 압력을 방출하여 큰 폭발을 방지하는 역할을 한다. 직사각형 컵 배터리 케이스는 6 단계의 다단계 딥 드로잉으로 외형을 만들고 직사각형 배터리 케이스와 용접하여 벤트 부품을 제작해왔다. 그러나 본 연구에서는 직사각형 케이스의 바닥면에 공기 벤트 형상을 직접 추가 하는 연구를 수행하였다. 단조의 초기 형상으로는 사각 컵 다단식 딥 드로잉 성형 해석에서 추출한 두께와 형상을 이용한 유한 요소 해석 기법을 사용 하였다. 그 결과, 예측 정밀도가 향상되고, 배부름 및 파단 등의 결함을 미리 예측할 수 있었다. 초기 분석 결과를 토대로 두 가지 단조 형상이 후보로 제시되었고 성형 해석을 통해 최적의 단조 형상을 결정 하였다. 이러한 결과를 바탕으로 금형을 제작하고 실제 결과와 분석 결과를 비교하여 본 연구의 타당성을 검증하였다.

다중모형조합기법을 이용한 상품추천시스템 (Product Recommender Systems using Multi-Model Ensemble Techniques)

  • 이연정;김경재
    • 지능정보연구
    • /
    • 제19권2호
    • /
    • pp.39-54
    • /
    • 2013
  • 전자상거래의 폭발적 증가는 소비자에게 더 유리한 많은 구매 선택의 기회를 제공한다. 이러한 상황에서 자신의 구매의사결정에 대한 확신이 부족한 소비자들은 의사결정 절차를 간소화하고 효과적인 의사결정을 위해 추천을 받아들인다. 온라인 상점의 상품추천시스템은 일대일 마케팅의 대표적 실현수단으로써의 가치를 인정받고 있다. 그러나 사용자의 기호를 제대로 반영하지 못하는 추천시스템은 사용자의 실망과 시간낭비를 발생시킨다. 본 연구에서는 정확한 사용자의 기호 반영을 통한 추천기법의 정교화를 위해 데이터마이닝과 다중모형조합기법을 이용한 상품추천시스템 모형을 제안하고자 한다. 본 연구에서 제안하는 모형은 크게 두 개의 단계로 이루어져 있으며, 첫 번째 단계에서는 상품군 별 우량고객 선정 규칙을 도출하기 위해서 로지스틱 회귀분석 모형, 의사결정나무 모형, 인공신경망 모형을 구축한 후 다중모형조합기법인 Bagging과 Bumping의 개념을 이용하여 세 가지 모형의 결과를 조합한다. 두 번째 단계에서는 상품군 별 연관관계에 관한 규칙을 추출하기 위하여 장바구니분석을 활용한다. 상기의 두 단계를 통하여 상품군 별로 구매가능성이 높은 우량고객을 선정하여 그 고객에게 관심을 가질만한 같은 상품군 또는 다른 상품군 내의 다른 상품을 추천하게 된다. 제안하는 상품추천시스템은 실제 운영 중인 온라인 상점인 'I아트샵'의 데이터를 이용하여 프로토타입을 구축하였고 실제 소비자에 대한 적용가능성을 확인하였다. 제안하는 모형의 유용성을 검증하기 위하여 제안 상품추천시스템의 추천과 임의 추천을 통한 추천의 결과를 사용자에게 제시하고 제안된 추천에 대한 만족도를 조사한 후 대응표본 T검정을 수행하였으며, 그 결과 사용자의 만족도를 유의하게 향상시키는 것으로 나타났다.

Parametric Analysis of the Solar Radiation Pressure Model for Precision GPS Orbit Determination

  • Bae, Tae-Suk
    • 한국측량학회지
    • /
    • 제35권1호
    • /
    • pp.55-62
    • /
    • 2017
  • The SRP (Solar Radiation Pressure) model has always been an issue in the dynamic GPS (Global Positioning System) orbit determination. The widely used CODE (Center for Orbit Determination in Europe) model and its variants have nine parameters to estimate the solar radiation pressure from the Sun and to absorb the remaining forces. However, these parameters show a very high correlation with each other and, therefore, only several of them are estimated at most of the IGS (International GNSS Service) analysis centers. In this study, we attempted to numerically verify the correlation between the parameters. For this purpose, a bi-directional, multi-step numerical integrator was developed. The correlation between the SRP parameters was analyzed in terms of post-fit residuals of the orbit. The integrated orbit was fitted to the IGS final orbit as external observations. On top of the parametric analysis of the SRP parameters, we also verified the capabilities of orbit prediction at later time epochs. As a secondary criterion for orbit quality, the positional discontinuity of the daily arcs was also analyzed. The resulting post-fit RMSE (Root-Mean-Squared Error) shows a level of 4.8 mm on average and there is no significant difference between block types. Since the once-per-revolution parameters in the Y-axis are highly correlated with those in the B-axis, the periodic terms in the D- and Y-axis are constrained to zero in order to resolve the correlations. The 6-hr predicted orbit based on the previous day yields about 3 cm or less compared to the IGS final orbit for a week, and reaches up to 6 cm for 24 hours (except for one day). The mean positional discontinuity at the boundary of two 1-day arcs is on the level of 1.4 cm for all non-eclipsing satellites. The developed orbit integrator shows a high performance in statistics of RMSE and positional discontinuity, as well as the separations of the dynamic parameters. In further research, additional verification of the reference frame for the estimated orbit using SLR is necessary to confirm the consistency of the orbit frames.

객체지향형 수문 모델링 시스템을 이용한 금강유역 분포형 강우-유출 시스템의 개발 (Development of a Distributed Rainfall-Runoff System for the Guem River Basin Using an Object-oriented Hydrological Modeling System)

  • 이기하;타카라 카오루;정관수;김정엽;전자훈
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국수자원학회 2009년도 학술발표회 초록집
    • /
    • pp.149-153
    • /
    • 2009
  • Physics-based distributed rainfall-runoff models are now commonly used in a variety of hydrologic applications such as to estimate flooding, water pollutant transport, sedimentation yield and so on. Moreover, it is not surprising that GIS has become an integral part of hydrologic research since this technology offers abundant information about spatial heterogeneity for both model parameters and input data that control hydrological processes. This study presents the development of a distributed rainfall-runoff prediction system for the Guem river basin ($9,835km^2$) using an Object-oriented Hydrological Modeling System (OHyMoS). We developed three types of element modules: Slope Runoff Module (SRM), Channel Routing Module (CRM), and Dam Reservoir Module (DRM) and then incorporated them systemically into a catchment modeling system under the OHyMoS. The study basin delineated by the 250m DEM (resampled from SRTM90) was divided into 14 midsize catchments and 80 sub-catchments where correspond to the WAMIS digital map. Each sub-catchment was represented by rectangular slope and channel components; water flows among these components were simulated by both SRM and CRM. In addition, outflows of two multi-purpose dams: Yongdam and Daechung dams were calculated by DRM reflecting decision makers' opinions. Therefore, the Guem river basin rainfall-runoff modeling system can provide not only each sub-catchment outflow but also dam inand outflow at one hour (or less) time step such that users can obtain comprehensive hydrological information readily for the effective and efficient flood control during a flood season.

  • PDF

ViStoryNet: 비디오 스토리 재현을 위한 연속 이벤트 임베딩 및 BiLSTM 기반 신경망 (ViStoryNet: Neural Networks with Successive Event Order Embedding and BiLSTMs for Video Story Regeneration)

  • 허민오;김경민;장병탁
    • 정보과학회 컴퓨팅의 실제 논문지
    • /
    • 제24권3호
    • /
    • pp.138-144
    • /
    • 2018
  • 본 고에서는 비디오로부터 coherent story를 학습하여 비디오 스토리를 재현할 수 있는 스토리 학습/재현 프레임워크를 제안한다. 이를 위해 연속 이벤트 순서를 감독학습 정보로 사용함으로써 각 에피소드들이 은닉 공간 상에서 궤적 형태를 가지도록 유도하여, 순서정보와 의미정보를 함께 다룰 수 있는 복합된 표현 공간을 구축하고자 한다. 이를 위해 유아용 비디오 시리즈를 학습데이터로 활용하였다. 이는 이야기 구성의 특성, 내러티브 순서, 복잡도 면에서 여러 장점이 있다. 여기에 연속 이벤트 임베딩을 반영한 인코더-디코더 구조를 구축하고, 은닉 공간 상의 시퀀스의 모델링에 양방향 LSTM을 학습시키되 여러 스텝의 서열 데이터 생성을 고려하였다. '뽀롱뽀롱 뽀로로' 시리즈 비디오로부터 추출된 약 200 개의 에피소드를 이용하여 실험결과를 보였다. 실험을 통해 에피소드들이 은닉공간에서 궤적 형태를 갖는 것과 일부 큐가 주어졌을 때 스토리를 재현하는 문제에 적용할 수 있음을 보였다.