• Title/Summary/Keyword: Multi-step prediction

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Fast Diagnosis Method for Submodule Failures in MMCs Based on Improved Incremental Predictive Model of Arm Current

  • Xu, Kunshan;Xie, Shaojun
    • Journal of Power Electronics
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.1608-1617
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    • 2018
  • The rapid and correct isolation of faulty submodules (SMs) is of great importance for improving the reliability of modular multilevel converters (MMCs). Therefore, a fast diagnosis method containing fault detection and fault location determination was presented in this paper. An improved incremental predictive model of arm current was proposed to detect failures, and the multi-step prediction method was used to eliminate the negative impact of disturbances. Moreover, a control method was proposed to strengthen the fault characteristics to rapidly locate faulty arms and faulty SMs by detecting the variation rate of the SM capacitor voltage. The proposed method can rapidly and easily locate faulty SMs under different load conditions without the need for additional sensors. The experimental results have validated the effectiveness of the proposed method by using a single-phase MMC with four SMs per arm.

Effect of base isolation on the seismic response of multi-column bridges

  • Saiidi, M.;Maragakis, E.;Griffin, G.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.411-419
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    • 1999
  • A nonlinear model for time-step analysis of bridges subjected to two orthogonal horizontal components of earthquake motions was developed. The focus of the study was on elastomeric isolators with or without lead cores. The hysteretic behavior of the isolators, the columns, abutments, and shear keys was taken into account. The nonlinear analysis showed that, contrary to linear theory prediction, the use of isolators does not necessarily increase the displacement of the superstructure. Furthermore, it was shown that properly designed isolators can reduce the ductility demand in RC bridge columns substantially.

Self-Tuning PID Control of Systems with Time-Varying Delays (시변 지연시간이 존재하는 시스템의 자기동조 PID 제어)

  • 남현도;안동준
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.364-370
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    • 1990
  • In this paper, we propose a self-tuning PID controller for unknown systems with time-varying delay. Using pole placement equations, we derive the controller that can be extended to the multi-step time delay case. The time-varying delays are estimated by a prediction error delay method using multiple predictors. Since the order of the estimation vector is not increased, the persistant exciting condition of control input is alleviated. Since the least square method gives biased parameter estimates for colored noise cases, the recursive instrumental variable method is used to estimate system parameters. The computational burden of the proposed method is less than the conventional adaptive methods. Computer simulations are performed to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method.

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An analysis of characteristics of corrugated horn antenna using surface impedance condition (표면 경계조건을 이용한 코러게이트 혼 안테나 특성 해석)

  • ;;Alexander Shishlov
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.1587-1595
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    • 1996
  • We obtained the predicted and measured results for the reflection coefficient and radiation pattern of Ka-band (20- GHz) corrugated horn, which is usually used for feeder of reflector antenna for satellite communication, using suface impedance condition. In order to predict the reture losses of corrugated horn, we analyzed propagation constant of hybrid mode in the corrugated waveguide and then obtained the total reflection coefficient using the circuti theory of multi-step transformer. We also got the radiation pattern of corrugated horn with small flare angle, considering the phase deviation and integrate transverse field on aperture. A test model of corrugated horn antenna for Ka-band designed using theory and program displayed performance and the results agree with the theoretical prediction.

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A study on Digital Agriculture Data Curation Service Plan for Digital Agriculture

  • Lee, Hyunjo;Cho, Han-Jin;Chae, Cheol-Joo
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.171-177
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, we propose a service method that can provide insight into multi-source agricultural data, way to cluster environmental factor which supports data analysis according to time flow, and curate crop environmental factors. The proposed curation service consists of four steps: collection, preprocessing, storage, and analysis. First, in the collection step, the service system collects and organizes multi-source agricultural data by using an OpenAPI-based web crawler. Second, in the preprocessing step, the system performs data smoothing to reduce the data measurement errors. Here, we adopt the smoothing method for each type of facility in consideration of the error rate according to facility characteristics such as greenhouses and open fields. Third, in the storage step, an agricultural data integration schema and Hadoop HDFS-based storage structure are proposed for large-scale agricultural data. Finally, in the analysis step, the service system performs DTW-based time series classification in consideration of the characteristics of agricultural digital data. Through the DTW-based classification, the accuracy of prediction results is improved by reflecting the characteristics of time series data without any loss. As a future work, we plan to implement the proposed service method and apply it to the smart farm greenhouse for testing and verification.

Using Bayesian tree-based model integrated with genetic algorithm for streamflow forecasting in an urban basin

  • Nguyen, Duc Hai;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.140-140
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    • 2021
  • Urban flood management is a crucial and challenging task, particularly in developed cities. Therefore, accurate prediction of urban flooding under heavy precipitation is critically important to address such a challenge. In recent years, machine learning techniques have received considerable attention for their strong learning ability and suitability for modeling complex and nonlinear hydrological processes. Moreover, a survey of the published literature finds that hybrid computational intelligent methods using nature-inspired algorithms have been increasingly employed to predict or simulate the streamflow with high reliability. The present study is aimed to propose a novel approach, an ensemble tree, Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) model incorporating a nature-inspired algorithm to predict hourly multi-step ahead streamflow. For this reason, a hybrid intelligent model was developed, namely GA-BART, containing BART model integrating with Genetic algorithm (GA). The Jungrang urban basin located in Seoul, South Korea, was selected as a case study for the purpose. A database was established based on 39 heavy rainfall events during 2003 and 2020 that collected from the rain gauges and monitoring stations system in the basin. For the goal of this study, the different step ahead models will be developed based in the methods, including 1-hour, 2-hour, 3-hour, 4-hour, 5-hour, and 6-hour step ahead streamflow predictions. In addition, the comparison of the hybrid BART model with a baseline model such as super vector regression models is examined in this study. It is expected that the hybrid BART model has a robust performance and can be an optional choice in streamflow forecasting for urban basins.

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Geomechanical and thermal reservoir simulation during steam flooding

  • Taghizadeh, Roohollah;Goshtasbi, Kamran;Manshad, Abbas Khaksar;Ahangari, Kaveh
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.66 no.4
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    • pp.505-513
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    • 2018
  • Steam flooding is widely used in heavy oil reservoir with coupling effects among the formation temperature change, fluid flow and solid deformation. The effective stress, porosity and permeability in this process can be affected by the multi-physical coupling of thermal, hydraulic and mechanical processes (THM), resulting in a complex interaction of geomechanical effects and multiphase flow in the porous media. Quantification of the state of deformation and stress in the reservoir is therefore essential for the correct prediction of reservoir efficiency and productivity. This paper presents a coupled fluid flow, thermal and geomechanical model employing a program (MATLAB interface code), which was developed to couple conventional reservoir (ECLIPSE) and geomechanical (ABAQUS) simulators for coupled THM processes in multiphase reservoir modeling. In each simulation cycle, time dependent reservoir pressure and temperature fields obtained from three dimensional compositional reservoir models were transferred into finite element reservoir geomechanical models in ABAQUS as multi-phase flow in deforming reservoirs cannot be performed within ABAQUS and new porosity and permeability are obtained using volumetric strains for the next analysis step. Finally, the proposed approach is illustrated on a complex coupled problem related to steam flooding in an oil reservoir. The reservoir coupled study showed that permeability and porosity increase during the injection scenario and increasing rate around injection wells exceed those of other similar comparable cases. Also, during injection, the uplift occurred very fast just above the injection wells resulting in plastic deformation.

An enhancement of GloSea5 ensemble weather forecast based on ANFIS (ANFIS를 활용한 GloSea5 앙상블 기상전망기법 개선)

  • Moon, Geon-Ho;Kim, Seon-Ho;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.11
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    • pp.1031-1041
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    • 2018
  • ANFIS-based methodology for improving GloSea5 ensemble weather forecast is developed and evaluated in this study. The proposed method consists of two steps: pre & post processing. For ensemble prediction of GloSea5, weights are assigned to the ensemble members based on Optimal Weighting Method (OWM) in the pre-processing. Then, the bias of the results of pre-processed is corrected based on Model Output Statistics (MOS) method in the post-processing. The watershed of the Chungju multi-purpose dam in South Korea is selected as a study area. The results of evaluation indicated that the pre-processing step (CASE1), the post-processing step (CASE2), pre & post processing step (CASE3) results were significantly improved than the original GloSea5 bias correction (BC_GS5). Correction performance is better the order of CASE3, CASE1, CASE2. Also, the accuracy of pre-processing was improved during the season with high variability of precipitation. The post-processing step reduced the error that could not be smoothed by pre-processing step. It could be concluded that this methodology improved the ability of GloSea5 ensemble weather forecast by using ANFIS, especially, for the summer season with high variability of precipitation when applied both pre- and post-processing steps.

Development of stability maps for flashing-induced instability in a passive containment cooling system for iPOWER

  • Lim, Sang Gyu;No, Hee Cheon;Lee, Sang Won;Kim, Han Gon;Cheon, Jong;Lee, Jae Min;Ohk, Seung Min
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.37-50
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    • 2020
  • A passive containment cooling system (PCCS) has been developed as advanced safety feature for innovative power reactor (iPOWER). Passive systems are inherently less stable than active systems and the PCCS encountered the flashing-induced instability previously identified. The objective of this study is to develop stability maps for flashing-induced instability using MARS (Multi-dimensional Analysis of Reactor Safety) code. Firstly, we conducted a series of sensitivity analysis to see the effects of time step size, nodalization, and alternative MARS user options on the onset of flashing-induced instability. The riser nodalization strongly affects the prediction of flashing in a long riser of the PCCS, while time step size and alternative user options do not. Based on the sensitivity analysis, a standard input and an analysis methodology were set up to develop the stability maps of PCCS. We found out that the calculated equilibrium quality at the exit of the riser as a stability boundary above 5 kW/㎡ was approximately 1.2%, which was in good agreement with Furuya's results. However, in case of a very low heat flux condition, the onset of instability occurred at the lower equilibrium quality. In addition, it was confirmed that inlet throttling reduces the unstable region.

Towards improved floor spectra estimates for seismic design

  • Sullivan, Timothy J.;Calvi, Paolo M.;Nascimbene, Roberto
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.109-132
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    • 2013
  • Current codes incorporate simplified methods for the prediction of acceleration demands on secondary structural and non-structural elements at different levels of a building. While the use of simple analysis methods should be advocated, damage to both secondary structural and non-structural elements in recent earthquakes have highlighted the need for improved design procedures for such elements. In order to take a step towards the formation of accurate but simplified methods of predicting floor spectra, this work examines the floor spectra on elastic and inelastic single-degree of freedom systems subject to accelerograms of varying seismic intensity. After identifying the factors that appear to affect the shape and intensity of acceleration demands on secondary structural and non-structural elements, a new series of calibrated equations are proposed to predict floor spectra on single degree of freedom supporting structures. The approach uses concepts of dynamics and inelasticity to define the shape and intensity of the floor spectra at different levels of damping. The results of non-linear time-history analyses of a series of single-degree of freedom supporting structures indicate that the new methodology is very promising. Future research will aim to extend the methodology to multi-degree of freedom supporting structures and run additional verification studies.