• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model variability

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Stochastic response of suspension bridges for various spatial variability models

  • Adanur, Suleyman;Altunisik, Ahmet C.;Soyluk, Kurtulus;Dumanoglu, A. Aydin
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.1001-1018
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this paper is to compare the structural responses obtained from the stochastic analysis of a suspension bridge subjected to uniform and partially correlated seismic ground motions, using different spatial correlation functions commonly used in the earthquake engineering. The spatial correlation function employed in this study consists of a term that characterizes the loss of coherency. To account for the spatial variability of ground motions, the widely used four loss of coherency models in the literature has been taken into account in this study. Because each of these models has its own characteristics, it is intended to determine the sensitivity of a suspension bridge due to these losses of coherency models which represent the spatial variability of ground motions. Bosporus Suspension Bridge connects Europe to Asia in Istanbul is selected as a numerical example. The bridge has steel towers that are flexible, inclined hangers and a steel box-deck of 1074 m main span, with side spans of 231 and 255 m on the European and Asian sides, respectively. For the ground motion the filtered white noise model is considered and applied in the vertical direction, the intensity parameter of this model is obtained by using the S16E component of Pacoima Dam record of 1971 San Fernando earthquake. An analytically simple model called as filtered white noise ground motion model is chosen to represent the earthquake ground motion. When compared with the uniform ground motion case, the results obtained from the spatial variability models with partial correlation outline the necessity to include the spatial variability of ground motions in the stochastic dynamic analysis of suspension bridges. It is observed that while the largest response values are obtained for the model proposed by Harichandran and Vanmarcke, the model proposed by Uscinski produces the smallest responses among the considered partially correlated ground motion models. The response values obtained from the uniform ground motion case are usually smaller than those of the responses obtained from the partially correlated ground motion cases. While the response values at the flexible parts of the bridge are totally dominated by the dynamic component, the pseudo-static component also has significant contributions for the response values at the rigid parts of the bridge. The results also show the consistency of the spatial variability models, which have different characteristics, considered in this study.

Evaluation of Estimation and Variability of Fines Content in Pohang for CPT-based Liquefaction Assessment (CPT 기반 액상화 평가를 위한 포항지역 세립분 함량 예측 및 변동성 평가)

  • Bong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Sung-Ryul;Yoo, Byeong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2019
  • Recently, the use of CPT-based liquefaction assessment method has increased by providing more accurate results than other field tests. In CPT-based liquefaction evaluation, various soil properties are predicted and they are used for liquefaction potential assessment. In particular, fines content is one of the important input parameters in CPT-based liquefaction assessment, so it is very important to use correct prediction model and to make quantitative evaluation of estimating variability of fines content. In this study, the error evaluation of existing models for prediction of fines content through CPT was performed, and the most suitable model was selected for Pohang area, where the liquefaction phenomenon was observed in the 2017. In addition, the inherent variability of soil was analyzed, and the estimating variability of fines content was evaluated quantitatively considering the inherent variability of soil, measurement error of CPT and transformation uncertainty of selected model.

Climate Change Scenario Generation and Uncertainty Assessment: Multiple variables and potential hydrological impacts

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Park, Rae-Gun;Choi, Byung-Kyu;Park, Se-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.268-272
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    • 2010
  • The research presented here represents a collaborative effort with the SFWMD on developing scenarios for future climate for the SFWMD area. The project focuses on developing methodology for simulating precipitation representing both natural quasi-oscillatory modes of variability in these climate variables and also the secular trends projected by the IPCC scenarios that are publicly available. This study specifically provides the results for precipitation modeling. The starting point for the modeling was the work of Tebaldi et al that is considered one of the benchmarks for bias correction and model combination in this context. This model was extended in the framework of a Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) to formally and simultaneously consider biases between the models and observations over the historical period and trends in the observations and models out to the end of the 21st century in line with the different ensemble model simulations from the IPCC scenarios. The low frequency variability is modeled using the previously developed Wavelet Autoregressive Model (WARM), with a correction to preserve the variance associated with the full series from the HBM projections. The assumption here is that there is no useful information in the IPCC models as to the change in the low frequency variability of the regional, seasonal precipitation. This assumption is based on a preliminary analysis of these models historical and future output. Thus, preserving the low frequency structure from the historical series into the future emerges as a pragmatic goal. We find that there are significant biases between the observations and the base case scenarios for precipitation. The biases vary across models, and are shrunk using posterior maximum likelihood to allow some models to depart from the central tendency while allowing others to cluster and reduce biases by averaging. The projected changes in the future precipitation are small compared to the bias between model base run and observations and also relative to the inter-annual and decadal variability in the precipitation.

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(A Formal Model of Component Variability Types and Scope) (컴포넌트 가변성 유형 및 Scope에 대한 정형적 모델)

  • 소동섭;신규석;김수동
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.30 no.5_6
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    • pp.414-429
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    • 2003
  • Component-based development(CBD) has been generalized in industry to master the complexity and reduce the development cost and time. However, current CBD practice is developing the component which is dependent on single application[l][2]. Therefore component variability is emphasized to reuse the component in many family members in a domain[8]. However, components are developed for the reason of replaceability rather than the reusability which is the main purpose of the component due to the insufficiency of the study of component variability definition and type[3]. In this paper, we formally specify the component variability reflecting the characteristics of the component to increase the component reusability. We define the logic variability which was recognized as the existing component variability and we propose all types of variability existing in the component by suggesting three more variability types. And we propose the component variability scope which makes us estimate and verify the number of cases of the variability when we customize the component. We propose these component variability types and scope through formal specification. By applying these techniques in developing components, we can develop high quality components reusable in many family members.

New Considerations on Variability of Creep Rupture Data and Life Prediction (크리프 파단 데이터의 변동성에 대한 새로운 고찰과 수명예측)

  • Jung, Won-Taek;Kong, Yu-Sik;Kim, Seon-Jin
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.33 no.10
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    • pp.1119-1124
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    • 2009
  • This paper deals with the variability analysis of short term creep rupture test data based on the previous creep rupture tests and the possibility of the creep life prediction. From creep tests performed by constant uniaxial stresses at 600, 650 and $700^{\circ}C$ elevated temperature, in order to investigate the variability of short-term creep rupture data, the creep curves were analyzed for normalized creep strain divided by initial strain. There are some variability in the creep rupture data. And, the difference between general creep curves and normalized creep curves were obtained. The effects of the creep rupture time (RT) and steady state creep rate (SSCR) on the Weibull distribution parameters were investigated. There were good relation between normal Weibull parameters and normalized Weibull parameters. Finally, the predicted creep life were compared with the Monkman-Grant model.

Mixed Model with Time Effect for Analyzing Geographic Variability in Mortality Rates

  • Yong Chul Kim
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 1997
  • Tsutakawa(1988) proposed a mixed model for using empirical Bayes method to study the geographic variability in mortality rates of a disease. In particular cases of the analysis in mortality rate, we need to consider the effect of time. If observed data are collected annually for the time period, then time effect will be emphasized. Here, an extended model for estimating the geographic effect and the mortality rates of the disease with time effect is proposed.

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Estimation of Groundwater Recharge with Spatial-Temporal Variability (시공간적 변동성을 고려한 지하수 함양량의 산정방안)

  • Kim, Nam Won;Chung, Il Moon;Won, Yoo Seung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2004.05b
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    • pp.691-695
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    • 2004
  • In recent years, mary studies for efact estimation of groudwater recharge has been performed. They can be categorized into three groups : analytical method by means of groundwater recession curve, water budget analysis based on watershed, and the method using groundwater model. Since groundwater recharge rate shows the spatial-temporal variability due to hydrogeological heterogeneity, existing studies have various limits to deal with these characteristics. The method of estimating daily recharge rate with spatial-temporal variation based on rainfall-runoff model is suggested in this study for this purpose. This method is expected to enhance existing indirect method by means of reflecting climatic conditions, land use and hydrogeological heterogeneity.

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Consistency Checking Rules of Variability between Feature Model and Elements in Software Product Lines (소프트웨어 제품라인의 휘처모델과 구성요소간 가변성에 대한 일관성 검증 규칙)

  • Kim, Se-Hoon;Kim, Jeong-Ah
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2014
  • Many companies have tried to adopt Software Product Line Engineering for improving the quality and productivity of information systems and software product. There are several models defined in software product line methodology and each model has different abstraction level. Therefor it is important to maintain the traceability and consistency between models. In this paper, consistency checking rules are suggested by traceability matrix of work products.

Characteristics of the Simulated ENSO in CGCM (대기-해양 접합 모델에서 모사한 ENSO의 특징)

  • Moon, Byung-Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.343-356
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    • 2007
  • This paper explored the characteristics of the interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the equatorial Pacific by analyzing the simulated data from a newly coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The CGCM simulates well the realistic ENSO variability as well as the mean climatologies including SST, seasonal cycle, precipitation, and subsurface structures. It is argued that the zonal gradient of SST in the equatorial Pacific is responsible for the over-energetic SST variability near the equatorial western boundary in the model. This variability could also be related to the strong westward propagation of SST anomalies which resulted from the enhanced the zonal advection feedback. The simple two-strip model supports this by sensitivity tests. Analysis of the relationship between zonal mean thermocline depth and NINO3 SST index suggested that the ENSO variability is controlled by the recharge-discharge oscillator of the model. The lead-lag regression result reveals that heat buildup process in the western equatorial Pacific associated with the increase of the barrier layer thickness (BLT) is a precedent condition for El $Ni\widetilde{n}o$ to develop.

Simulation Analysis for Multiple-Server Queueing Model with Advertising and Balking (선전과 이탈이 있는 복수 서비스 대기행렬모형에 대한 시뮬레이션 분석)

  • 권치명;김성연;정문상;황성원
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyse the manager's policy to maximize the profit in a multiple-server queueing facility with a limited queue capacity. We assume that the level of advertizing effects on the arrival rate of customers to the facility. The model without ‘word of mouth effect’ is assumed that the arrival rate is independent on the qualify of service level. We estimate the service quality by the balking rate of customers from system. We extend this to the model with ‘word of mouth effect’. To achieve the maximum profit, the most important factor is the considerably high utilization of facility for both models. Given service rate, we should maintain an effective arrival rate to some extent. To this end, among the available options, an increase of advertizing effort is more desirable than reducing the fee if the service value of customers remains unchanged. We also investigate whether the variability of service time has a significant impact on determining the optimal policy. The cost of service variability is not so expensive as that in a single server model due to the reduced variability of service times in a multiple-server model.

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