• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model over-fitting

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Derivation and Application of Survival Functions for Unthinned Forest Plantation (미간벌(未間伐) 인공림(人工林)에서 잔존림목(殘存林木) 추정(推定) 함수(函數)의 유도(誘導)와 적용(適用))

  • Li, Fengri;Chung, Joosang;Kwon, Soonduk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.88 no.3
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    • pp.320-326
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    • 1999
  • In this study, 15 survival functions in integral and difference forms for forest plantation were derived based on assumptions for the number of surviving trees and the differential forms of the mortality rate model. Then, performance of the models was evaluated by fitting to remeasurement data of unthinned white pine(Pinus strobes) forest plantation. As a result, three equations associated with a power function of age, $t^{\beta}$, are somewhat more suitable for describing the effect of self-thinning over time. On the other hand, a general survival function for Japanese larch(Larix leptolepts) forest plantation was derived in order to exam the effect of site quality on self-thinning procedures. The results indicate that the $N_{min}$ is negatively correlated with site index and, even though the same initial stand density was assumed, the survival function curves differ in shapes associated with site index values.

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Alcock-Paczynski Test with the Evolution of Redshift-Space Galaxy Clustering Anisotropy: Understanding the Systematics

  • Park, Hyunbae;Park, Changbom;Tonegawa, Motonari;Zheng, Yi;Sabiu, Cristiano G.;Li, Xiao-dong;Hong, Sungwook E.;Kim, Juhan
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.78.2-78.2
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    • 2019
  • We develop an Alcock-Paczynski (AP) test method that uses the evolution of redshift-space two-point correlation function (2pCF) of galaxies. The method improves the AP test proposed by Li et al. (2015) in that it uses the full two-dimensional shape of the correlation function. Similarly to the original method, the new one uses the 2pCF in redshift space with its amplitude normalized. Cosmological constraints can be obtained by examining the redshift dependence of the normalized 2pCF. This is because the 2pCF should not change apart from the expected small non-linear evolution if galaxy clustering is not distorted by incorrect choice of cosmology used to convert redshift to comoving distance. Our new method decomposes the redshift difference of the 2-dimensional correlation function into the Legendre polynomials whose amplitudes are modelled by radial fitting functions. The shape of the normalized 2pCF suffers from small intrinsic time evolution due to non-linear gravitational evolution and change of type of galaxies between different redshifts. It can be accurately measured by using state of the art cosmological simulations. We use a set of our Multiverse simulations to find that the systematic effects on the shape of the normalized 2pCF are quite insensitive to change of cosmology over \Omega_m=0.21 - 0.31 and w=-0.5 - -1.5. Thanks to this finding, we can now apply our method for the AP test using the non-linear systematics measured from a single simulation of the fiducial cosmological model.

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MULTILAYER SPECTRAL INVERSION OF SOLAR Hα AND CA II 8542 LINE SPECTRA WITH HEIGHT-VARYING ABSORPTION PROFILES

  • Chae, Jongchul;Cho, Kyuhyoun;Kang, Juhyung;Lee, Kyoung-Sun;Kwak, Hannah;Lim, Eun-Kyung
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2021
  • We present an updated version of the multilayer spectral inversion (MLSI) recently proposed as a technique to infer the physical parameters of plasmas in the solar chromosphere from a strong absorption line. In the original MLSI, the absorption profile was constant over each layer of the chromosphere, whereas the source function was allowed to vary with optical depth. In our updated MLSI, the absorption profile is allowed to vary with optical depth in each layer and kept continuous at the interface of two adjacent layers. We also propose a new set of physical requirements for the parameters useful in the constrained model fitting. We apply this updated MLSI to two sets of Hα and Ca II line spectral data taken by the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph (FISS) from a quiet region and an active region, respectively. We find that the new version of the MLSI satisfactorily fits most of the observed line profiles of various features, including a network feature, an internetwork feature, a mottle feature in a quiet region, and a plage feature, a superpenumbral fibril, an umbral feature, and a fast downflow feature in an active region. The MLSI can also yield physically reasonable estimates of hydrogen temperature and nonthermal speed as well as Doppler velocities at different atmospheric levels. We conclude that the MLSI is a very useful tool to analyze the Hα line and the Ca II 8542 line spectral daya, and will promote the investigation of physical processes occurring in the solar photosphere and chromosphere.

A Study on Estimating Earthquake Magnitudes Based on the Observed S-Wave Seismograms at the Near-Source Region (근거리 지진관측자료의 S파를 이용한 지진규모 평가 연구)

  • Yun, Kwan-Hee;Choi, Shin-Kyu;Lee, Kang-Ryel
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.121-128
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    • 2024
  • There are growing concerns that the recently implemented Earthquake Early Warning service is overestimating the rapidly provided earthquake magnitudes (M). As a result, the predicted damages unnecessarily activate earthquake protection systems for critical facilities and lifeline infrastructures that are far away. This study is conducted to improve the estimation accuracy of M by incorporating the observed S-wave seismograms in the near source region after removing the site effects of the seismograms in real time by filtering in the time domain. The ensemble of horizontal S-wave spectra from at least five seismograms without site effects is calculated and normalized to a hypocentric target distance (21.54 km) by using the distance attenuation model of Q(f)=348f0.52 and a cross-over distance of 50 km. The natural logarithmic mean of the S-wave ensemble spectra is then fitted to Brune's source spectrum to obtain the best estimates for M and stress drop (SD) with the fitting weight of 1/standard deviation. The proposed methodology was tested on the 18 recent inland earthquakes in South Korea, and the condition of at least five records for the near-source region is sufficiently fulfilled at an epicentral distance of 30 km. The natural logarithmic standard deviation of the observed S-wave spectra of the ensemble was calculated to be 0.53 using records near the source for 1~10 Hz, compared to 0.42 using whole records. The result shows that the root-mean-square error of M and ln(SD) is approximately 0.17 and 0.6, respectively. This accuracy can provide a confidence interval of 0.4~2.3 of Peak Ground Acceleration values in the distant range.

A Study on Pseudo-Range Correction Modeling in order to Improve DGNSS Accuracy (DGNSS 위치정확도 향상을 위한 PRC 보정정보 모델링에 관한 연구)

  • Sohn, Dong Hyo;Park, Kwan Dong
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.43-48
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    • 2015
  • We studied on pseudo-range correction(PRC) modeling in order to improve differential GNSS(DGNSS) accuracy. The PRC is the range correction information that provides improved location accuracy using DGNSS technique. The digital correction signal is typically broadcast over ground-based transmitters. Sometimes the degradation of the positioning accuracy caused by the loss of PRC signals, radio interference, etc. To prevent the degradation, in this paper, we have designed a PRC model through polynomial curve fitting and evaluated this model. We compared two quantities, estimations of PRC using model parameters and observations from the reference station. In the case of GPS, the average is 0.1m and RMSE is 1.3m. Most of GPS satellites have a bias error of less than ${\pm}1.0m$ and a RMSE within 3.0m. In the case of GLONASS, the average and the RMSE are 0.2m and 2.6m, respectively. Most of satellites have less than ${\pm}2.0m$ for a bias error and less than 3.0m for RMSE. These results show that the estimated value calculated by the model can be used effectively to maintain the accuracy of the user's location. However;it is needed for further work relating to the big difference between the two values at low elevation.

Acoustic Full-waveform Inversion Strategy for Multi-component Ocean-bottom Cable Data (다성분 해저면 탄성파 탐사자료에 대한 음향파 완전파형역산 전략)

  • Hwang, Jongha;Oh, Ju-Won;Lee, Jinhyung;Min, Dong-Joo;Jung, Heechul;Song, Youngsoo
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.38-49
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    • 2020
  • Full-waveform inversion (FWI) is an optimization process of fitting observed and modeled data to reconstruct high-resolution subsurface physical models. In acoustic FWI (AFWI), pressure data acquired using a marine streamer has mainly been used to reconstruct the subsurface P-wave velocity models. With recent advances in marine seismic-acquisition techniques, acquiring multi-component data in marine environments have become increasingly common. Thus, AFWI strategies must be developed to effectively use marine multi-component data. Herein, we proposed an AFWI strategy using horizontal and vertical particle-acceleration data. By analyzing the modeled acoustic data and conducting sensitivity kernel analysis, we first investigated the characteristics of each data component using AFWI. Common-shot gathers show that direct, diving, and reflection waves appearing in the pressure data are separated in each component of the particle-acceleration data. Sensitivity kernel analyses show that the horizontal particle-acceleration wavefields typically contribute to the recovery of the long-wavelength structures in the shallow part of the model, and the vertical particle-acceleration wavefields are generally required to reconstruct long- and short-wavelength structures in the deep parts and over the whole area of a given model. Finally, we present a sequential-inversion strategy for using the particle-acceleration wavefields. We believe that this approach can be used to reconstruct a reasonable P-wave velocity model, even when the pressure data is not available.

Comparison of Survival Prediction of Rats with Hemorrhagic Shocks Using Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Machine (출혈성 쇼크를 일으킨 흰쥐에서 인공신경망과 지원벡터기계를 이용한 생존율 비교)

  • Jang, Kyung-Hwan;Yoo, Tae-Keun;Nam, Ki-Chang;Choi, Jae-Rim;Kwon, Min-Kyung;Kim, Deok-Won
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SC
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 2011
  • Hemorrhagic shock is a cause of one third of death resulting from injury in the world. Early diagnosis of hemorrhagic shock makes it possible for physician to treat successfully. The objective of this paper was to select an optimal classifier model using physiological signals from rats measured during hemorrhagic experiment. This data set was used to train and predict survival rate using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). To avoid over-fitting, we chose the best classifier according to performance measured by a 10-fold cross validation method. As a result, we selected ANN having three hidden nodes with one hidden layer and SVM with Gaussian kernel function as trained prediction model, and the ANN showed 88.9 % of sensitivity, 96.7 % of specificity, 92.0 % of accuracy and the SVM provided 97.8 % of sensitivity, 95.0 % of specificity, 96.7 % of accuracy. Therefore, SVM was better than ANN for survival prediction.

Phosphate Adsorption Characteristics of a Filter Medium, Adphos, and Its Efficiency by the Filtration Experiment Combined with the Vegetation Mat (Adphos 여재의 인 흡착특성과 식생 매트와 결합한 여과실험에 의한 효율)

  • Kim, Ji Ah;Joo, Gwang Jin;Choi, I Song;Chang, Kwang Hyeon;Oh, Jong Min
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.231-237
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze phosphate adsorption characteristic of the filter media applied in water purification technology. And it is also to observe the removal efficiency of the technology that was developed by combining the purification abilities of filter media and the vegetation mat. The filter media, Adphos, is the subject of this study. The result of adsorption test shows that $PO_4{^{3-}-P}$ adsorption characteristics of Adphos is determined by the Langmuir isotherm model fitting and the $q_m$ (maximum adsorption amount) value is calculated as 1.162 mg/g. To verify the removal efficiency of the purification technology, a lab-scale reactor, including a 400 mm depth of filter bed filled by Adphos, was manufactured. Yellow flag Iris (Iris pseudacours L.) was planted on the vegetation bed and the coir-roll was used to fix the root of vegetation. The reactor ran 8 hours per day over 71 days, and the results of filtration experiment show that average removal efficiency of SS, T-N and T-P were calculated as 94%, 41% and 64% respectively. With these results, it was proved that the purification technology is highly effective. And for the long-time use, a maintenance guide is also required.

Incidence of Micronuclei in Lymphocytes of Cattle in the High Background Radiation Area (자연방사선 고준위 지역 사육 소의 림프구 미소핵 발생 평가)

  • Lee, Hae-June;Kang, Chang-Mo;Kim, Se-Ra;Moon, Chang-Jong;Kim, Jong-Choon;Kim, Ill-Hwa;Jo, Sung-Kee;Jang, Jong-Sik;Kim, Sung-Ho
    • Toxicological Research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.417-422
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    • 2006
  • Cytogenetic and hematological analysis was performed in peripheral blood obtained from cattle bred in the high background radiation areas (HBRA, Goesan-gun, Cheongwon-gun, Boeun-gun) and a control area. The frequencies of gamma-ray induced micronuclei (MN) in the cytokinesis-blocked (CB) lymphocytes at several doses were measured in 3 cattle. An estimated dose of radiation was calculated by a best fitting linear-quadratic model based on the radiation-induced MN formation from the bovine lymphocytes exposed in vitro to radiation over the range from 0 mGy to 1,969 mGy. The measurements performed after irradiation showed dose-related increases in the MN frequency in each donors. The results were analyzed using a linear-quadratic model with a line of best fit of $y=(0.0583{\pm}0.0137)D+(0.0366{\pm}0.0081)D^2+(0.0093{\pm}0.0015)$ (y=number of MN/CB cells and D=irradiation dose in Gy). MN rates per 1,000 CB lymphocytes of cattle from the Goesan-gun, Cheongwon-gun, Boeun-gun and the control area were $6.50{\pm}2.72,\;9.00{\pm}4.50,\;10.89{\pm}4.23\;and\;9.60{\pm}4.70$, respectively. The MN frequencies of CB lymphocytes from cattle bred in 4 areas mean that the values are within the background variation in this experiment. The MN frequencies and hematological values were similar regardless of whether the cattle were bred in the HBRA or the control area.

Incidence of micronuclei in lymphocytes of pig in the high background radiation area (Cheongwon-gun and Boeun-gun) (국내 자연 방사선 고준위 지역(청원군, 보은군) 사육 돼지의 림프구 미소핵 발생 평가)

  • Lee, Hae-June;Kang, Chang-Mo;Kim, Se-Ra;Lee, Jin-Hee;Kim, Joong-Sun;Kim, Jong-Choon;Kim, Ill-Hwa;Kim, Tae-Hwan;Ryu, Si-Yun;Jo, Sung-Kee;Choi, Soo-Yong;Kim, Sung-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.469-475
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    • 2005
  • Cytogenetic and hematological analysis was performed in peripheral blood obtained from pigs bred in the high background radiation areas (HBRA) (Cheongwon-gun and Boeun-gun) and a control area. The frequencies of gamma-ray induced micronuclei (MN) in the cytokinesis-blocked (CB) lymphocytes at several doses were measured in three pigs. An estimated dose of radiation was calculated by a best fitting linear-quadratic model based on the radiation-induced MN formation from the swine lymphocytes exposed in vitro to radiation over the range from 0 mGy to 1,969 mGy. The measurements performed after irradiation showed dose-related increases in the MN frequency in each donors. The results were analyzed using a linear-quadratic model with a line of best fit of $y=0.0005404D^2+0.04237D+0.00833$ [y = number of MN/cytokinesis-blocked (CB) cells and D = irradiation dose in Gy]. MN rates per 1,000 CB lymphocytes of pig from the HBRA (Cheongwon-gun, Boeun-gun) and the control area were $6.70{\pm}2.36$, $9.00{\pm}3.50$ and $11.00{\pm}2.98$, respectively. The MN frequencies of CB lymphocytes from pigs bred in three areas means that the values are within the background variation in this experiment. The MN frequencies and hematological values were similar regardless of whether the pigs were bred in the HBRA or the control area.