• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.313-322
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• 2013

Batteries, which are being used as energy sources in various applications, tend to degrade, and their capacity declines with repeated charging and discharging cycles. A battery is considered to fail when it reaches 80% of its initial capacity. To predict this, prognosis techniques are attracting attention in recent years in the battery community. In this study, a method is proposed for estimating the battery health and predicting its remaining useful life (RUL) based on the slope of the charge voltage curve. During this process, a Bayesian framework is employed to manage various uncertainties, and a Particle Filter (PF) algorithm is applied to estimate the degradation of the model parameters and to predict the RUL in the form of a probability distribution. Two sets of test data-one from the NASA Ames Research Center and another from our own experiment-for an Li-ion battery are used for illustrating this technique. As a result of the study, it is concluded that the slope can be a good indicator of the battery health and PF is a useful tool for the reliable prediction of RUL.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.743-754
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• 2014

In this present paper, we, for the first time, calculated $SO_2$ inflow from China to Korea peninsula based on OMI $SO_2$ products and HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model) backward trajectory calculations. The major factors used to estimate $SO_2$ flux are long range transported $SO_2$ concentration, transport speed of air mass, and thickness of transported air mass layer. The mean and maximum $SO_2$ fluxes are estimated to be 0.81 and $2.11g{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}h^{-1}$, respectively based on OMI products while, those of $SO_2$ fluxes are 0.50 and $1.18g{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}h^{-1}$ respectively using insitu data obtained at the surface. For most cases, larger $SO_2$ inflow values were found at the surface than those estimated for the air mass layer which extends from surface up to 1.5 km. However, increased transport speed of air mass leads to the enhanced $SO_2$ flux at the altitude up to 1.5 km at the receptor sites. Additionally, we calculate uncertainties of $SO_2$ flux using error propagation method.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.126-139
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• 1994

Best-estimate thermal-hydraulic codes, CATHARE2 V1.2 and RELAP5/MOD3, hate been assessed against the BETHSY 6.2 tc six-inch cold leg break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) test. Main objective is to analyze the overall capabilities of the two codes on physical phenomena of concern during the small break LOCA i.e. two-phase critical flow, depressurization, core water level de-pression, loop seal clearing, liquid holdup, etc. The calculation results show that the too codes predict well both in the occurrences and trends of major two-phase flow phenomena observed. Especially, the CATHARE2 calculations show better agreements with the experimental data. However, the two codes, in common, show some deviations in the predictions of loop seal clearing, collapsed core water level after the loop seal clearing, and accumulator injection behaviors. The discrepancies found from the comprision with the experimental data are larger in the RELAP5 results than in the CATHARE2. To analyze the deviations of the two code predictions in detail, several sensitivity calculations have been performed. In addition to the change of two-phase discharge coefficients for the break junction, fine nodalization and some corrections of the interphase drag term are made. For CATHARE2, the change of interphase drag force improves the mass distribution in the primary side. And the prediction of SG pressure is improved by the modification of boundary conditions. For RELAP5, any single input change doesn't improve the whole result and it is found that the interphase drag model has still large uncertainties.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.705-713
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• 2018

An automotive ball joint connects the suspension system to the steering system and helps to enable rotational and linear motion between the two elements for steering. This study examines a ball joint used in medium and large-sized pickup trucks. Ball joints consist of a stud, socket, bearing, and plug. The main structural performance metrics of ball joints are the pull-out strength and push-out strength. These structural parameters must meet certain criteria to avoid serious accidents. Test and simulation methods are used to investigate the design requirements, but tests are time-consuming and costly. In this study, we modeled ball joints in SolidWorks and performed a finite element analysis in Abaqus to predict structural performance. The analysis was used to obtain the structural performance required for the static analysis of a 2D axisymmetric model. The uncertainties in the manufacturing of the ball joint were assumed to be the manufacturing tolerances, and the dimensional design variables were identified through case studies. The manufacturing tolerances at each level were defined, and the results were compared with experimental results.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.149-179
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• 2003

This study is analysing the factors determining individuals' behavior of selecting self-employment not only at the micro-level but also at the macro-level to put a particular emphasis on the financial constraint and unemployment rate representing business cycle. The data used in this study are "Korean Labor and Income Panal Study" of the Korea Labor Institute and "Economically Active Population Survey" of National Statistical Office. The main findings are as follows. First, human capital such as educational attainment and job experience has positive effects on male's selection of self-employment. The effects of job experience, however, changed negative for female's selection of self-employment. Second, real estate is significantly enhancing the selection probabilities of employer selection while the income from financial assets has negative effects. Third, entrepreneurial culture and environment are also raising the self-employment selection probability. Lastly, the regional unemployment rate representing the business cycle has positive effects on the self-employment selection after the financial crisis in 1997 both at the micro and macro level. Moreover, the coefficient of regional unemployment rate has changed positive in the structural model of self-employment selection controlling for selection bias and income opportunities, which means that individual's behavior of self-employment selection is rather complex when accounting for the uncertainties of income opportunities and diverse characteristics of self-employment workforce.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.36 no.5
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• pp.791-803
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• 2016

Recently, frequency of extreme rainfall events in South Korea has been substantially increased due to the enhanced climate variability. Korea is prone to flooding due to being surrounded by mountains, along with high rainfall intensity during a short period. In the past three decades, an increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall events has been observed due to enhanced climate variability and climate change. This study aimed to analyze extreme rainfalls informed by their frequency of occurrences using a long-term rainfall data. In this respect, we developed a Poisson-Generalized Pareto Distribution (Poisson-GPD) based rainfall frequency method which allows us to simultaneously explore changes in the amount and exceedance probability of the extreme rainfall events defined by different thresholds. Additionally, this study utilized a Bayesian approach to better estimate both parameters and their uncertainties. We also investigated the synoptic patterns associated with the extreme events considered in this study. The results showed that the Poisson-GPD based design rainfalls were rather larger than those of based on the Gumbel distribution. It seems that the Poisson-GPD model offers a more reasonable explanation in the context of flood safety issue, by explicitly considering the changes in the frequency. Also, this study confirmed that low and high pressure system in the East China Sea and the central North Pacific, respectively, plays crucial roles in the development of the extreme rainfall in South Korea.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.63-74
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• 1999

A sliding mode fuzzy control (SMFC) algorithm is presented for vibration of large structures. Rule-base of the fuzzy inference engine is constructed based on the sliding mode control, which is one of the nonlinear control algorithms. Fuzziness of the controller makes the control system robust against the uncertainties in the system parameters and the input excitation. Non-linearity of the control rule makes the controller more effective than linear controllers. Design procedure based on the present fuzzy control is more convenient than those of the conventional algorithms based on complex mathematical analysis, such as linear quadratic regulator and sliding mode control(SMC). Robustness of presented controller is illustrated by examining the loop transfer function. For verification of the present algorithm, a numerical study is carried out on the benchmark problem initiated by the ASCE Committee on Structural Control. To achieve a high level of realism, various aspects are considered such as actuator-structure interaction, modeling error, sensor noise, actuator time delay, precision of the A/D and D/A converters, magnitude of control force, and order of control model. Performance of the SMFC is examined in comparison with those of other control algorithms such as $H_{mixed 2/{\infty}}$ optimal polynomial control, neural networks control, and SMC, which were reported by other researchers. The results indicate that the present SMFC is an efficient and attractive control method, since the vibration responses of the structure can be reduced very effectively and the design procedure is simple and convenient.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.19 no.2 s.72
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• pp.171-185
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• 2006

A sophisticated reliability analysis method is proposed to evaluate the reliability of real nonlinear complicated dynamic structural systems excited by short duration dynamic loadings like earthquake motions by intelligently integrating the response surface method, the finite element method, the first-order reliability method, and the iterative linear interpolation scheme. The method explicitly considers all major sources of nonlinearity and uncertainty in the load and resistance-related random variables. The unique feature of the technique is that the seismic loading is applied in the time domain, providing an alternative to the classical random vibration approach. The four-parameter Richard model is used to represent the flexibility of connections of real steel frames. Uncertainties in the Richard parameters are also incorporated in the algorithm. The laterally flexible steel frame is then reinforced with reinforced concrete shear walls. The stiffness degradation of shear walls after cracking is also considered. The applicability of the method to estimate the reliability of real structures is demonstrated by considering three examples; a laterally flexible steel frame with fully restrained connections, the same steel frame with partially restrained connections with different rigidities, and a steel frame reinforced with concrete shear walls.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.23-31
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• 2013

Following the U.S sub-prime mortgage crisis and a slump in properties market, the probability is rising that housing investment would not yield high profit as it used to do until early 2000s. For this reason, the nature of properties market is undergoing a change from a source of lucrative investment to a source of a relatively low but stable profit, such as profit-oriented real estate. This trend is likely to promote REITs market, which is a leading product for indirect investment. Until now, the REITs market has been growing slowly compared to a general housing market or financial markets. However, as the importance of risk management based on portfolio theories increases, stable profit generation of REITs can be effective in risk management. This study conducts an empirical analysis on how investment risks can be diversified by including REITs-a source of relatively stable profit in the equity market-in investment portfolio. The analysis results showed that, similar to food and beverage stocks of highly defensive nature, REITs has a relatively weak correlation with KOSPI that reflects the overall market performance. It also showed very low standard deviation in case of minimum variance portfolio. This suggests that including REITs in investment portfolio can be as effective as including food and beverage stocks for risk diversification. Due to uncertainties, investment always accompanies risks, and balancing potential profits and risks is essential.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.213-236
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• 2017

World trade has entered a stagnant state, protection trade measures are spread due to delayed economic recovery in developed countries, sluggish investment in emerging economies such as China, economic recession in resource exporting countries, and geopolitical and political uncertainties along with the election period in the US and other major industrialized countries. Thus, in the economic structure of our country with a focus on export, for small and medium enterprises to grow, efforts for having various markets are necessary. The importance of the trade insurance system, which can support the risk management of enterprises, is emphasized by the fact that the majority of SME exporters have a risk management level and a lack of corporate capacity to enter the global market. This study was surveyed with 87 small and medium export companies in South Korea. The purpose of this study is to verify the effect relationship how service quality of trade insurance and utilization of trade insurance impact on the risk management of trade payment and export performance. The research hypothesis and model was derived from the basis of existing theory and empirical research, and obtained the following results. Firstly, Service Quality of Trade Insurance showed positive (+) effect on Export Performance. Secondly, Utilization of Trade Insurance showed positive (+) effect on Risk Management of Trade Payment. Thirdly, Risk Management of Trade Payment showed positive (+) effect on Export Performance. This study is differentiated from previous research information by empirically evaluating the relationship between the risk management of trade payment and export performance through utilization of trade insurance. This study contributed to academic by examining the research on the risk management of trade insurance and also practically suggested the direction how small and medium export company is to take the advantage of the trade insurance.