• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model Fit

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A study of the adequate number of questions in a mock test for the paramedic national examination using item response theory (문항반응이론을 적용한 1급 응급구조사 국가시험 대비 모의시험의 적정성 연구)

  • Jung Eun Lee;Jundong Moon;Ajung Kim
    • The Korean Journal of Emergency Medical Services
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.7-19
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: To adjust item numbers in a national test, this study used item response theory to examine changes in average scores, reliability, difficulty, and discrimination according to the adjustment of item numbers. Methods: We analyzed the dichotomous coding of correct and incorrect answers of 473 examinees in a mock test conducted in 2023. Additionally, as an explanatory pilot study, we used an online questionnaire to survey experts on their perceptions of the appropriate item numbers for each test subject from January 18, 2024, to February 15, 2024. Results: Regarding the item numbers on the national exam, experts preferred to reduce the number of management of emergency patients (33.14±6.09, p<.05) and advanced emergency medical care: subtopics (104.49±11.55, p<.05), and the total number of questions (217.82±20.95, p<.05). In a simulation set in which items with low item fit were removed after fitting a two-parameter item response theory model, reliability was maintained at .910 until the 5th test consisting of 185 questions with little loss of difficulty, discrimination, and average score, and there was no correlation between item numbers and average score. Conclusion: Experts responded that reducing the number of items on the national exam was appropriate. As a result of the item reduction simulation, there was no significant loss in the average score, difficulty, discrimination, or reliability. More reliable results could be obtained if the results were based on a validity analysis and analyzed using actual national exams.

Mediating Role of Social Network Support in the Relationship Between Depression and Online Social Networking (우울과 온라인 사회관계망의 관계에서 오프라인 사회관계망의 매개 역할)

  • Kim, In-Hye;Park, Hae-Yean;Nam, Sang-Hun
    • Therapeutic Science for Rehabilitation
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.9-21
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    • 2024
  • Objective : This study investigated the effects of depression on online and offline social interactions among middle-aged and older adults with the aim of enhancing their social connectivity and mental well-being. Methods : Utilizing the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 and the Lubben Social Network Scale-6, this study assessed depression and social relationships in 429 middle-aged adults. We explored the mediation effects of offline relationships on online interactions using path analysis and the Sobel test. Results : Significant links were found between depression and social relationships in a cohort of educated males averaging 63 years of age. Offline interactions mediated 32% of the influence of depression on online relationships, with strong model fit indices emphasizing the importance of offline social interactions. Conclusion : This study highlights the role of active engagement in online and offline networks in improving mental health and managing the impact of depression on social activity among older adults, helping prevent isolation.

A Study on the Framework of Customer Orientation, Interest Rate Sensitivity, and Customer Loyalty in the Banking Services: The Moderating Roles of Deposit Interest and Loan Interest Rates (은행서비스에서 고객지향성, 금리민감도, 고객애호도의 구조에 관한 연구: 예금이자율과 대출이자율의 조절효과)

  • Ha, Hong-Youl;Choi, Chang-bok
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.43-62
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    • 2010
  • The notion of customer orientation is now importantly considered in the context of banking industries. Despite customer-oriented organizational cultures, there are few studies addressing the relationship between customer orientation and its outcomes. In particular, this study aims at testing the effect of customer orientation as a key marketing effort designed by a bank. This is because interest rate sensitivity is critical for evaluating banking services after raising the base rate. In so doing, first, this study investigates the relationships among customer orientation, interest rate sensitivity, and customer loyalty. Second, this paper examines how the moderating effects of both deposit interest and loan interest rates influence the linkages of customer orientation-interest rate sensitivity and customer orientation-customer loyalty. To test the proposed model, research data are collected from 304 subjects who use banking services(e.g., Shin-Han, Kookmin, the First Bank, Hana, and Woori banks). Each construct was measured by published items and the psychometric properties of the three constructs, excluding two constructs of the moderators, were evaluated by employing the method of confirmatory factor analysis via the use of AMOS. The model fit was also evaluated using the CFI, TLI, and RMSEA fit indices that are recommended based on their relative stability and insensitivity to sample size. The findings show that the relationship between customer orientation and customer loyalty is significant, whereas the relationships between customer orientation and interest rate sensitivity and between interest rate sensitivity and customer loyalty are not supported. Although customer orientation is highly evaluated, customers' interest rate sensitivity that results in the comparison of interest rates plays an important role in reducing the effect of customer orientation. As a consequence, interest rate sensitivity does not influence customer loyalty. First of all, one of interesting results in this study is that the moderating effect of loan interest rate is quite different from deposit interest rate. In the case of deposit interest rate, the linkages both customer orientation-interest rate sensitivity and customer orientation-customer loyalty are insignificant. In the case of loan interest rate, however, the two proposed linkages are supported. As our proposed relationships are still in its infancy in the context of banking industry, our study contributes to enhance scholars' knowledge of bank services and provides insights for practitioners when their marketing strategies, particularly both deposit and interest rates, have to be established. Finally, this research also illuminates the need for further research that considers the influence of customer orientation on consumer's decision-making and bank profits. More specifically, the results are encouraging and will lead us to further investigate this key outcome of the banking deposit/interest rates.

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Development and Validation of Career Barrier Scale for Career Interruption Women (경력단절여성 진로장벽 척도 개발 및 타당화)

  • Ae Ri Kim;Jin Kook Tak
    • The Korean Journal of Coaching Psychology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-50
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study is to identify career barrier factors experienced by career interruption women, develop a tool to measure career barrier, and verify their validity. To this end, preliminary questions were developed by reviewing literature, conducting one-on-one in-depth interviews with 10 women on career interruption, and conducting an open questionnaire with 100 women on career interruption. The subjects of the study were married women aged 20 to 54 who had past employment experience, wanted to be re-employed, and experienced retirement due to marriage, pregnancy, childbirth, childcare, and family care, and the period of career interruption was selected for more than one year. After that, 63 questions were selected for 7 factors. A preliminary survey was conducted on 300 women with career interruption in Korea, and as a result, 63 questions of 6 factors were derived through exploratory factor analysis. The main survey was conducted with 44 questions of 6 factors by partially modifying the questions reflecting the important concepts in each factor. In this survey of 600 people, in order to verify the validity of the constituent concept of this test, the entire sample was divided into two groups, and group 1 (G1, N=309) conducted exploratory factor analysis and group 2 (G2, N=291) conducted confirmatory factor analysis. As a result of exploratory factor analysis for Group 1, 34 questions of 6 factors were finally derived, and a confirmatory factor analysis of Group 2(G2) was conducted to confirm the model fit of the derived factors, and it was confirmed that the model fit criteria were met. In order to verify the convergence validity of the developed career barrier scale, a correlation analysis was conducted with the career barrier test for female college students, and as a result of the analysis, the career barrier scale for women with career interruption and the career barrier test for female college students showed statistically significant correlation. In order to verify the validity of the criterion, the results of a correlation analysis with variables of job preparation behavior, job stress, state anxiety, and life satisfaction were all found to be statistically significant. Finally, the academic, practical, and policy significance and limitations of this study and future research directions were presented.

The Impact of e-Store Personality on e-Store Loyalty-Focus on the Mediating Role of Identification, Trust, and Engagement (온라인에서 점포 개성이 점포 충성도에 미치는 영향-동일시, 신뢰, 인게이지먼트의 매개 역할을 중심으로)

  • Park, Hyo-Hyun;Jung, Gang-Ok;Lee, Seung-Chang
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.57-94
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    • 2011
  • Nowadays, it is common that most consumers are purchasing goods in e-stores. The e-stores eager to attract, revisit, retain, and finally convert them into loyal customers. The e-store marketers have planned and executed numerous marketing efforts. As one of the marketing activities, e-store managers attempt to build web sites that meet customers' functional and psychological needs. A wide array of studies has been done to identify factors that could affect customers' response of web sites. Majority of studies were conducted to verify technology-related and functional variables of the website which facilitate transactions and enhance customer responses such as purchase intention and website loyalty. However, there has been little research on the external cues of website and psychological variables of consumer that could have positive influences on customer response. The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of e-store personality on e-store loyalty through mediating variables such as e-store identification, e-store trust, and e-store engagement. The authors of this study develop the model and set up the six main hypotheses and a set of sub-hypotheses based on a literature review, shown in

    . This model is composed of four paths such as dimensions of e-store personality${\rightarrow}$e-store identification, e-store identification${\rightarrow}$e-store loyalty, e-store identification ${\rightarrow}$e-store trust${\rightarrow}$e-store loyalty, and e-store identification${\rightarrow}$e-store engagement${\rightarrow}$e-store loyalty. II. Research Method Ladies under 30s were the respondents of this survey. Data were collected from January 20th to February 26th in 2010. A total of 200 questionnaires were distributed and 169 respondents were analysed finally to test hypotheses because 31 questionnaires had incorrect or missing responses. SPSS 12.0 and LISREL 7.0 program were used to test frequency, reliability, factor, and structural equation modeling analysis. III. Result and Conclusion According to results from factor analysis, eigen value was over 1.0 and items which were below 0.6 were deleted. Consequently, 9 factors(% of total variance is 72.011%) were searched. All Cronbach's ${\alpha}$ values are over the recommended level(${\alpha}$ > 0.7). The overall fit indices are acceptable such as ${\chi}^2$=2028.36(p=0.00), GFI=0.87, AGFI=0.82, CFI=0.81, IFI=0.92, RMR=0.075. All factor loadings were over the recommended level. As the result of discriminant validity check with chi-square difference test between paired constructs, each construct has good discriminant validity. The overall fit indices of final model are acceptable such as ${\chi}^2$=340.73(df=36, p=0.00), GFI=0.92, AGFI=0.81, CFI=0.91, IFI=0.91, RMR=0.085. As test results, 5 out of 6 hypotheses are supported because there are statistically significant casual relationships in structural equation model, shown in . First of all, hypothesis 1 is partially supported because sub-hypothesis 1-1 and 1-2 are supported, whereas sub-hypothesis 1-3, 1-4, and 1-5 are rejected. Specifically, it reveals that warmth and sophistication dimensions in e-store personality have positive influence on e-store identification, however, activity, progressiveness, and strictness does not have any significant relationship on e-store identification. Secondly, hypothesis 2 was supported. Therefore, it can be said that e-store identification has a positive impact on e-store trust. Thirdly, hypothesis 3 is also supported. Hence, there is a positive relationship between e-store identification and e-store engagement. Fourthly, hypothesis 4 is supported too. e-store identification has a positive influence on e-store loyalty. Fifthly, hypothesis 5 is also accepted. This indicates that e-store trust is a precedent variable which positively affects e-store loyalty. Lastly, it reveals that e-store engagement has a positive impact on e-store loyalty. Therefore, hypothesis 6 is supported. The findings of the study imply that some dimensions of e-store personality have a positive influence on e-store identification, and that e-store identification has direct and indirect influence on e-store loyalty through e-store trust and e-store engagement positively. These results also suggest that the e-store identification in e-store personality is a precedent variable which positively affects e-store loyalty directly and indirectly through e-store trust and engagement as a mediating variable. Therefore, e-store marketers need to implement website strategy based on e-store personality, e-store identification, e-store trust, and e-store engagement to meet customers' psychological needs and enhance e-store loyalty. Finally, the limitations and future study directions based on this study are discussed.

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  • Motives for Writing After-Purchase Consumer Reviews in Online Stores and Classification of Online Store Shoppers (인터넷 점포에서의 구매후기 작성 동기 및 점포 고객 유형화)

    • Hong, Hee-Sook;Ryu, Sung-Min
      • Journal of Distribution Research
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      • v.17 no.3
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      • pp.25-57
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      • 2012
    • This study identified motives for writing apparel product reviews in online stores, and determined what motives increase the behavior of writing reviews. It also classified store customers based on the type of writing motives, and clarified the characteristics of internet purchase behavior and of a demographic profile. Data were collected from 252 females aged 20s' and 30s' who have experience of reading and writing reviews on online shopping. The five types of writing motives were altruistic information sharing, remedying of a grievance and vengeance, economic incentives, helping new product development, and the expression of satisfaction feelings. Among five motives, altruistic information sharing, economic incentives, and helping new product development stimulate writing reviews. Store customers who write reviews were classified into three groups based on their writing motive types: Other consumer advocates(29.8%), self-interested shoppers(40.5%) and shoppers with moderate motives(29.8%). There were significant differences among three groups in writing behavior (the frequency of writing reviews, writing intent of reviews, duration of writing reviews, and frequency of online shopping) and age. Based on results, managerial implications were suggested. Long Abstract : The purpose of present study is to identify the types of writing motives on online shopping, and to clarify the motives affecting the behavior of writing reviews. This study also classifies online shoppers based on the motive types, and identifies the characteristics of the classified groups in terms of writing behavior, frequency of online shopping, and demographics. Use and Gratification Theory was adopted in this study. Qualitative research (focus group interview) and quantitative research were used. Korean women(20 to 39 years old) who reported experience with purchasing clothing online, and reading and writing reviews were selected as samples(n=252). Most of the respondents were relatively young (20-34yrs., 86.1%,), single (61.1%), employed(61.1%) and residents living in big cities(50.9%). About 69.8% of respondents read and 40.5% write apparel reviews frequently or very frequently. 24.6% of the respondents indicated an "average" in their writing frequency. Based on the qualitative result of focus group interviews and previous studies on motives for online community activities, measurement items of motives for writing after-purchase reviews were developed. All items were used a five-point Likert scale with endpoints 1 (strongly disagree) and 5 (strongly agree). The degree of writing behavior was measured by items concerning experience of writing reviews, frequency of writing reviews, amount of writing reviews, and intention of writing reviews. A five-point scale(strongly disagree-strongly agree) was employed. SPSS 18.0 was used for exploratory factor analysis, K-means cluster analysis, one-way ANOVA(Scheffe test) and ${\chi}^2$-test. Confirmatory factor analysis and path model analysis were conducted by AMOS 18.0. By conducting principal components factor analysis (varimax rotation, extracting factors with eigenvalues above 1.0) on the measurement items, five factors were identified: Altruistic information sharing, remedying of a grievance and vengeance, economic incentives, helping new product development, and expression of satisfaction feelings(see Table 1). The measurement model including these final items was analyzed by confirmatory factor analysis. The measurement model had good fit indices(GFI=.918, AGFI=.884, RMR=.070, RMSEA=.054, TLI=.941) except for the probability value associated with the ${\chi}^2$ test(${\chi}^2$=189.078, df=109, p=.00). Convergent validities of all variables were confirmed using composite reliability. All SMC values were found to be lower than AVEs confirming discriminant validity. The path model's goodness-of-fit was greater than the recommended limits based on several indices(GFI=.905, AGFI=.872, RMR=.070, RMSEA=.052, TLI=.935; ${\chi}^2$=260.433, df=155, p=.00). Table 2 shows that motives of altruistic information sharing, economic incentives and helping new product development significantly increased the degree of writing product reviews of online shopping. In particular, the effect of altruistic information sharing and pursuit of economic incentives on the behavior of writing reviews were larger than the effect of helping new product development. As shown in table 3, online store shoppers were classified into three groups: Other consumer advocates (29.8%), self-interested shoppers (40.5%), and moderate shoppers (29.8%). There were significant differences among the three groups in the degree of writing reviews (experience of writing reviews, frequency of writing reviews, amount of writing reviews, intention of writing reviews, and duration of writing reviews, frequency of online shopping) and age. For five aspects of writing behavior, the group of other consumer advocates who is mainly comprised of 20s had higher scores than the other two groups. There were not any significant differences between self-interested group and moderate group regarding writing behavior and demographics.

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    Temperature-driven Models of Lipaphis erysimi (Hemiptera: Aphididae) Based on its Development and Fecundity on Cabbage in the Laboratory in Jeju, Korea (양배추에서 무테두리진딧물의 온도의존 발육 및 산자 단위모형)

    • Oh, Sung Oh;Kwon, Soon Hwa;Kim, Tae Ok;Park, Jeong Hoon;Kim, Dong-Soon
      • Korean journal of applied entomology
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      • v.55 no.2
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      • pp.119-128
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      • 2016
    • This study was conducted to develop temperature-driven models for a population model of turnip aphid, Lipaphis erysimi: nymphal development rate models and apterious adult's oviposition (larviparous) model. Nymphal development and the longevity and fecundity of adults were examined on cabbage at six constant temperatures (10, 15, 20, 25, 30, $35{\pm}1^{\circ}C$, 16L:8D). L. erysimi nymphs did not survive at $10^{\circ}C$. Development time of nymphs increased with increasing temperature up to $30^{\circ}C$ and thereafter slightly decreased, ranging from 18.5 d at $15^{\circ}C$ to 5.9 d at $30^{\circ}C$. The lower threshold temperature and thermal constant were estimated as $7.9^{\circ}C$ and 126.3 degree days, respectively. The nonlinear model of Lactin 2 fitted well for the relationship between the development rate and temperature of small (1+2 instar), large (3+4 instar) and total nymph (all instars). The Weibull function provided a good fit for the distribution of development times of each stage. Temperature affected the longevity and fecundity of L. erysimi. Adult longevity decreased as the temperature increased and ranged from 24.4 d at $20^{\circ}C$ to 16.4 d at $30.0^{\circ}C$ with abnormal longevity 18.2 d at $15^{\circ}C$, which was used to estimate adult aging rate model for the calculation of adult physiological age. L. erysimi showed a maximum fecundity of 91.6 eggs per female at $20^{\circ}C$. In this study, we provided three temperature-dependent components for an oviposition model of L. erysimi: total fecundity, age-specific cumulative oviposition rate, and age-specific survival rate.

    Factors Influencing the Adoption of Location-Based Smartphone Applications: An Application of the Privacy Calculus Model (스마트폰 위치기반 어플리케이션의 이용의도에 영향을 미치는 요인: 프라이버시 계산 모형의 적용)

    • Cha, Hoon S.
      • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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      • v.22 no.4
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      • pp.7-29
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      • 2012
    • Smartphone and its applications (i.e. apps) are increasingly penetrating consumer markets. According to a recent report from Korea Communications Commission, nearly 50% of mobile subscribers in South Korea are smartphone users that accounts for over 25 million people. In particular, the importance of smartphone has risen as a geospatially-aware device that provides various location-based services (LBS) equipped with GPS capability. The popular LBS include map and navigation, traffic and transportation updates, shopping and coupon services, and location-sensitive social network services. Overall, the emerging location-based smartphone apps (LBA) offer significant value by providing greater connectivity, personalization, and information and entertainment in a location-specific context. Conversely, the rapid growth of LBA and their benefits have been accompanied by concerns over the collection and dissemination of individual users' personal information through ongoing tracking of their location, identity, preferences, and social behaviors. The majority of LBA users tend to agree and consent to the LBA provider's terms and privacy policy on use of location data to get the immediate services. This tendency further increases the potential risks of unprotected exposure of personal information and serious invasion and breaches of individual privacy. To address the complex issues surrounding LBA particularly from the user's behavioral perspective, this study applied the privacy calculus model (PCM) to explore the factors that influence the adoption of LBA. According to PCM, consumers are engaged in a dynamic adjustment process in which privacy risks are weighted against benefits of information disclosure. Consistent with the principal notion of PCM, we investigated how individual users make a risk-benefit assessment under which personalized service and locatability act as benefit-side factors and information privacy risks act as a risk-side factor accompanying LBA adoption. In addition, we consider the moderating role of trust on the service providers in the prohibiting effects of privacy risks on user intention to adopt LBA. Further we include perceived ease of use and usefulness as additional constructs to examine whether the technology acceptance model (TAM) can be applied in the context of LBA adoption. The research model with ten (10) hypotheses was tested using data gathered from 98 respondents through a quasi-experimental survey method. During the survey, each participant was asked to navigate the website where the experimental simulation of a LBA allows the participant to purchase time-and-location sensitive discounted tickets for nearby stores. Structural equations modeling using partial least square validated the instrument and the proposed model. The results showed that six (6) out of ten (10) hypotheses were supported. On the subject of the core PCM, H2 (locatability ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) and H3 (privacy risks ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) were supported, while H1 (personalization ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) was not supported. Further, we could not any interaction effects (personalization X privacy risks, H4 & locatability X privacy risks, H5) on the intention to use LBA. In terms of privacy risks and trust, as mentioned above we found the significant negative influence from privacy risks on intention to use (H3), but positive influence from trust, which supported H6 (trust ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA). The moderating effect of trust on the negative relationship between privacy risks and intention to use LBA was tested and confirmed by supporting H7 (privacy risks X trust ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA). The two hypotheses regarding to the TAM, including H8 (perceived ease of use ${\rightarrow}$ perceived usefulness) and H9 (perceived ease of use ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) were supported; however, H10 (perceived effectiveness ${\rightarrow}$ intention to use LBA) was not supported. Results of this study offer the following key findings and implications. First the application of PCM was found to be a good analysis framework in the context of LBA adoption. Many of the hypotheses in the model were confirmed and the high value of $R^2$ (i.,e., 51%) indicated a good fit of the model. In particular, locatability and privacy risks are found to be the appropriate PCM-based antecedent variables. Second, the existence of moderating effect of trust on service provider suggests that the same marginal change in the level of privacy risks may differentially influence the intention to use LBA. That is, while the privacy risks increasingly become important social issues and will negatively influence the intention to use LBA, it is critical for LBA providers to build consumer trust and confidence to successfully mitigate this negative impact. Lastly, we could not find sufficient evidence that the intention to use LBA is influenced by perceived usefulness, which has been very well supported in most previous TAM research. This may suggest that more future research should examine the validity of applying TAM and further extend or modify it in the context of LBA or other similar smartphone apps.

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    Population Phenology and an Early Season Adult Emergence model of Pumpkin Fruit Fly, Bactrocera depressa (Diptera: Tephritidae) (호박과실파리 발생생태 및 계절초기 성충우화시기 예찰 모형)

    • Kang, Taek-Jun;Jeon, Heung-Yong;Kim, Hyeong-Hwan;Yang, Chang-Yeol;Kim, Dong-Soon
      • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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      • v.10 no.4
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      • pp.158-166
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      • 2008
    • The pumpkin fruit fly, Bactrocera depressa (Tephritidae: Diptera), is one of the most important pests in Cucurbitaceae plants. This study was conducted to investigate the basic ecology of B. depressa, and to develop a forecasting model for predicting the time of adult emergence in early season. In green pumpkin producing farms, the oviposition punctures caused by the oviposition of B. depressa occurred first between mid- and late July, peaked in late August, and then decreased in mid-September followed by disappearance of the symptoms in late September, during which oviposition activity of B. depressa is considered active. In full-ripened pumpkin producing farms, damaged fruits abruptly increased from early Auguest, because the decay of pumpkins caused by larval development began from that time. B. depressa produced a mean oviposition puncture of 2.2 per fruit and total 28.8-29.8 eggs per fruit. Adult emergence from overwintering pupae, which was monitored using a ground emergence trap, was first observed between mid- and late May, and peaked during late May to early June. The development times from overwintering pupae to adult emergence decreased with increasing temperature: 59.0 days at $15^{\circ}C$, 39.3 days at $20^{\circ}C$, 25.8 days at$25^{\circ}C$ and 21.4 days at $30^{\circ}C$. The pupae did not develop to adult at $35^{\circ}C$. The lower developmental threshold temperature was calculated as $6.8^{\circ}C$ by linear regression. The thermal constant was 482.3 degree-days. The non-linear model of Gaussian equation well explained the relationship between the development rate and temperature. The Weibull function provided a good fit for the distribution of development times of overwintering pupae. The predicted date of 50% adult emergence by a degree-day model showed one day deviation from the observed actual date. Also, the output estimated by rate summation model, which was consisted of the developmental model and the Weibull function, well pursued the actual pattern of cumulative frequency curve of B. depressa adult emergence. Consequently, it is expected that the present results could be used to establish the management strategy of B. depressa.

    A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

    • Kim, Sun-Woong
      • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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      • v.16 no.2
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      • pp.19-32
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      • 2010
    • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.


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