• Title/Summary/Keyword: Meteorological effect

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Analysis of Long-term Variations of Sunshine Duration and Precipitation Intensity Using Surface Meteorological Data Observed in Seoul and Busan in Korea (서울과 부산에서 관측된 일조 시간 및 강수 강도의 장기 변동 분석)

  • Lee, Hyo-Jung;Kim, Cheol-Hee
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.243-253
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    • 2009
  • In other to interpret the long-term variations of sunshine duration, cloud lifetime, and precipitation intensity observed in and around Seoul and Busan for the period from 1986 to 2005, aerosol indirect effect was employed and applied. For the identification of long-term trend of aerosol concentration, observed visibility and AOT of AERONET sunphotometer data were also used over the same regions. The result showed that the time series of visibility was decreased and those of AOT increased, especially trends were remarkable in 2000s. In both regions, occurrence frequencies of observed cloudiness (cloud amount ${\leq}6/10$) and strong precipitation (rain rate > $0.5mmhour^{-1}$) have been steadily increased while those of cloudiness (cloud amount > 7/10) and weak precipitation (rain rate ${\leq}0.2mmhour^{-1}$) decreased. These results are corresponding to the trend of both visibility and AERONET data, implying the aerosol indirect effect that makes size of cloud droplet reduce, cloud life-time longer and precipitation efficiency decreased. Our findings demonstrate that, although these phenomena are not highly significant, weather and climate system over Korean urban area have been changed toward longer lifetime of small cloudiness and increasing precipitation intensity as a result of increased aerosol indirect effect.

The Impact of Data Assimilation on WRF Simulation using Surface Data and Radar Data: Case Study (지상관측자료와 레이더 자료를 이용한 자료동화가 수치모의에 미치는 영향: 사례 연구)

  • Choi, Won;Lee, Jae Gyoo;Kim, Yu-Jin
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.143-160
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    • 2013
  • The effect of 3DVAR (Three Dimension Variational data Assimilation) was examined by comparing observation and the simulations of CNTL (to which data assimilation was not applied) and ALL (to which data assimilation was applied using ground observation data and radar data) for the case of a heavy snowfall event (case A) of 11-12 February 2011 in the Yeongdong region. In case A, heavy snow intensively came in the Yeongdong coastal region rather than Daegwallyeong, in particular, around the Gangneung and Donghae regions with total precipitation in Bukgangneung at approximately 91 mm according to the AWS observation. It can be seen that compared to CNTL, ALL simulated larger precipitation along the Yeongdong coastline extending from Sokcho to Donghae while simulating smaller precipitation for inland areas including Daegwallyeong. On comparison of the total accumulated precipitations from simulations of CNTL and ALL, and the observed total accumulated precipitation, the positive effect of the assimilation of ground observation data and radar data could be identified in Bukgangneung and Donghae, on the other hand, the negative effect of the assimilation could be identified in the Daegwallyeong and Sokcho regions. In order to examine the average accuracy of precipitation prediction by CNTL and ALL for the entire Gangwon region including the major points mentioned earlier, the three hour accumulated precipitation from simulations of CNTL and ALL were divided into 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 mm/3hr and threat Scores were calculated by forecasting time. ALL showed relatively higher TSs than CNTL for all threshold values although there were some differences. That is, when considered generally based on the Gangwon region, the accuracy of precipitation prediction from ALL was improved somewhat compared to that from CNTL.

Orographic and Ocean Effects Associated with a Heavy Snowfall Event over Yeongdong Region (영동지역 겨울철 강수와 연관된 산악효과와 해양효과)

  • Cho, Kuh-Hee;Kwon, Tae-Young
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.57-71
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    • 2012
  • Influences of orographic and ocean effect, which depend on the detailed geographic characteristics, upon winter time (December-February) precipitation in the Yeongdong region are investigated. Most of precipitation events in the Yeongdong region during the wintertime are associated with moist northeasterly (coming from the northeast direction) winds and also the spatial distribution of precipitation shows a great difference between Mountain area (Daegwallyeong) and Coastal area (Gangneung). The linear correlation coefficient between the meteorological variables obtained from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data and precipitation amount for each precipitation type is calculated. Mountain type precipitation is dominated by northeasterly wind speed of the low level (1000 hPa and 925 hPa) and characterized with more precipitation in mountain area than coastal area. However, Coastal type precipitation is affected by temperature difference between ocean and atmosphere, and characterized with more precipitation in coastal area than mountain area. The results are summarized as follows; In the case of mountain type precipitation, the correlation coefficient between wind speed at 1000 hPa (925 hPa) and precipitation amount at Daegwallyeong is 0.60 (0.61). The correlation is statistical significant at 1% level. In the case of coastal type precipitation, the correlation coefficient of temperature difference between ocean and 925 hPa (850 hPa) over the East sea area and precipitation amount at Gangneung is 0.33 (0.34). As for the mountain type precipitation, a detailed analysis was conducted in order to verify the relationship between precipitation amount at Daegwallyeong and low level wind speed data from wind profiler in Gangneung and Buoy in the East Sea. The results also show the similar behavior. This result indicates that mountain type precipitation in the Yeongdong region is closely related with easterly wind speed. Thus, the statistical analysis of the few selected meteorological variables can be a good indicator to estimate the precipitation totals in the Yeongdong region in winter time.

Assessment of Drought Severity over South Korea using Standardized Precipitation Evapo-transpiration Index (SPEI) (표준강수 증발산지수(SPEI)를 이용한 남한지역의 가뭄심도 평가)

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Sung, Jang-Hyun;Kang, Hyun-Suk;Cho, Chun-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.9
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    • pp.887-900
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    • 2012
  • Drought is a non-negligible disaster of nature and it is mainly caused by rainfall shortage for a long time though there are many definitions of drought. 'Standard Precipitation Index' (SPI) that is widely used to express the level of meteorological drought intensity has a limit of not being able to consider the hydrological changes such as rainfall and evapotranspiration caused by climate change, because it does not consider the temperature-related variables other than the precipitation. Recently, however, 'Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index' (SPEI), a drought index of new concept which is similar to SPI but can reflect the effect of temperature variability as well as the rainfall change caused by climate variation, was developed. In this study, the changes of drought occurrence in South Korea were analyzed by applying SPEI for meteorological data (1973~2011) of 60 climate observatories under Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). As the result of application, both of SPI and SPEI showed the trend of deepening drought in spring and winter and mitigating drought in summer for the entire nation, with SPI showing greater drought intensity than SPI. Also, SPI and SPEI with 12 months of duration showed that severe droughts with low frequency of around 6 years are generally being repeated.

Influence of Land Use and Meteorological Factors for Evapotranspiration Estimation in the Coastal Urban Area (해안도시 지역에서 증발산량 산정에 토지이용도와 기상인자의 영향성)

  • Yang, Sung-Il;Kang, Dong-Hwan;Kwon, Byung-Hyuk;Kim, Byung-Woo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.295-304
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    • 2010
  • Actual evapotranspiration (AET) in the Suyeong-gu was estimated and correlations between AET and meteorological factors were analyzed. The study area was Suyeong-gu lay at the east longitude $129^{\circ}$ 05' 40" ~ 129$^{\circ}$ 08' 08" and north latitude $35^{\circ}$ 07' 59" ~ $35^{\circ}$ 11' 01". The Kumryun mountain, the Bae mountain, the Suyeong river and the Suyeong bay are located on west, north, northeaster and south side in the study area, respectively. AET was estimated using precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET) and plant-available water coefficient. Meteorological factors to estimate PET were air temperature, dewpoint temperature, atmospheric pressure, duration of sunshine and mean wind speed (MWS). PET and AET were estimated by a method of Allen et al. (1998) and Zhang et al. (2001), respectively. PET was the highest value (564.45 mm/yr) in 2002 year, while it was the lowest value (449.95 mm/yr) in 2003 year. AET was estimated highest value (554.14 mm/yr) in 2002 year and lowest value (427.91 mm/yr) in 2003 year. Variations of PET and AET were similar. The linear regression function of AET as PET using monthly data was AET=0.87$\times$PET+3.52 and coefficient of determination was high, 0.75. In order to analyze relationship between the evapotranspiration and meteorological factors, correlation analysis using monthly data were accomplished. Correlation coefficient of AET-PET was 0.96 high, but they of AET-P and PET-P were very low. Correlation coefficients of AET-MWS and PET-MWS were 0.67 and 0.73, respectively. Thus, correlation between evapotranspiration and MWS was the highest among meteorological factors in Suyong-gu. This means that meteorological factor to powerfully effect for the variation of evapotranspiration was MWS. The linear regression function of AET as MWS was AET=84.73$\times$MWS+223.05 and coefficient of determination was 0.54. The linear regression function of PET as MWS was PET=83.83$\times$MWS+203.62 and coefficient of determination was 0.45.

A Study on the Development of Flight Prediction Model and Rules for Military Aircraft Using Data Mining Techniques (데이터 마이닝 기법을 활용한 군용 항공기 비행 예측모형 및 비행규칙 도출 연구)

  • Yu, Kyoung Yul;Moon, Young Joo;Jeong, Dae Yul
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.177-195
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    • 2022
  • Purpose This paper aims to prepare a full operational readiness by establishing an optimal flight plan considering the weather conditions in order to effectively perform the mission and operation of military aircraft. This paper suggests a flight prediction model and rules by analyzing the correlation between flight implementation and cancellation according to weather conditions by using big data collected from historical flight information of military aircraft supplied by Korean manufacturers and meteorological information from the Korea Meteorological Administration. In addition, by deriving flight rules according to weather information, it was possible to discover an efficient flight schedule establishment method in consideration of weather information. Design/methodology/approach This study is an analytic study using data mining techniques based on flight historical data of 44,558 flights of military aircraft accumulated by the Republic of Korea Air Force for a total of 36 months from January 2013 to December 2015 and meteorological information provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. Four steps were taken to develop optimal flight prediction models and to derive rules for flight implementation and cancellation. First, a total of 10 independent variables and one dependent variable were used to develop the optimal model for flight implementation according to weather condition. Second, optimal flight prediction models were derived using algorithms such as logistics regression, Adaboost, KNN, Random forest and LightGBM, which are data mining techniques. Third, we collected the opinions of military aircraft pilots who have more than 25 years experience and evaluated importance level about independent variables using Python heatmap to develop flight implementation and cancellation rules according to weather conditions. Finally, the decision tree model was constructed, and the flight rules were derived to see how the weather conditions at each airport affect the implementation and cancellation of the flight. Findings Based on historical flight information of military aircraft and weather information of flight zone. We developed flight prediction model using data mining techniques. As a result of optimal flight prediction model development for each airbase, it was confirmed that the LightGBM algorithm had the best prediction rate in terms of recall rate. Each flight rules were checked according to the weather condition, and it was confirmed that precipitation, humidity, and the total cloud had a significant effect on flight cancellation. Whereas, the effect of visibility was found to be relatively insignificant. When a flight schedule was established, the rules will provide some insight to decide flight training more systematically and effectively.

Meteor-Statistical Analysis for Establishment of Jejudo Wind Resource Database (제주도 풍력자원 데이터베이스 구축을 위한 기상통계분석)

  • Kim, Hyun-Goo;Jang, Moon-Seok;Lee, Eon-Jeong
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.591-599
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    • 2008
  • In order to support the development of wind farms in Jejudo, a wind resource database for Jejudo has been established using a meteor-statistical analysis of KIER(Korea Institute of Energy Research) met-mast measurements and KMA(Korea Meteorological Administration) weather data. The analysis included wind statistics, tower shading, an exposure category classification using satellite images, the effect of atmospheric stability on the wind profile exponent, and a correlation matrix of wind speed to gain an understanding of the meteorological correlation between long-term weather observation stations and short-term met-mast measurements. The wind resource database for Jejudo, is to be provided as an add-on to Google $Earth^{TM}$, which is expected to be utilized as a guideline for the selection of an appropriate reference site for long-term correction in the next wind farm development project.

Study on Effectiveness of Ocean Meteorological Variables through Sensitivity Analysis of Ship Infrared Signature (함정 적외선신호 민감도 해석을 통한 기상변수 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Yong-Jin;Jung, Ho-Seok
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.36-42
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    • 2013
  • According to a study on improving ship survivability, an IR signature represents the contrast radiance intensity between the radiation signature from a ship and the background signature. It was found from applying stealth techniques to the process of ship development that the IR signature is remarkably sensitive and dependent on the environment. In this study, marine climate data for the sea near the Korean Peninsula were collected, and the marine meteorological environment in Korean waters was defined. Based on this data, a study on the sensitivity of the IR signature of target objects was performed using analytical methods. The results of the research indicated that clouds have important effects on the infrared signature, but the velocity of the wind and the humidity have only slight effects on the IR signature. In addition, the air and seawater temperatures had hardly any effect on the IR signature, but it is judged that additional study is needed.

Climate Change Impacts on Meteorological Drought and Flood (기후변화가 기상학적 가뭄과 홍수에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Dong-Ryul;Kim, Ung-Tae;Yoo, Chul-Sang
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.315-328
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    • 2004
  • Recent increase of green house gases may increase the frequency of meteorological extremes. In this study, using the index and meteorological data generated by the Markov chain model under the condition of GCM predictions, the possible width of variability of flood and drought occurrences were predicted. As results, we could find that the frequency of both floods and droughts would be increased to make the water resources planning and management more difficult. Thus, it is recommended to include the effect of climate change on water resources in the related policy making.