• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제62권4호
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• pp.507-517
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• 2017

Due to the discontinuous nature of uncertainty quantification in conventional evidence theory(ET), the computational cost of reliability analysis based on ET model is very high. A novel ET model based on fuzzy distribution and the corresponding combination rule to synthesize the judgments of experts are put forward in this paper. The intersection and union of membership functions are defined as belief and plausible membership function respectively, and the Murfhy's average combination rule is adopted to combine the basic probability assignment for focal elements. Then the combined membership functions are transformed to the equivalent probability density function by a normalizing factor. Finally, a reliability analysis procedure for structures with the mixture of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is presented, in which the equivalent normalization method is adopted to solve the upper and lower bound of reliability. The effectiveness of the procedure is demonstrated by a numerical example and an engineering example. The results also show that the reliability interval calculated by the suggested method is almost identical to that solved by conventional method. Moreover, the results indicate that the computational cost of the suggested procedure is much less than that of conventional method. The suggested ET model provides a new way to flexibly represent epistemic uncertainty, and provides an efficiency method to estimate the reliability of structures with the mixture of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제82권3호
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• pp.271-282
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• 2022

The active learning surrogate model based on adaptive sampling strategy is increasingly popular in reliability analysis. However, most of the existing sampling strategies adopt the trial and error method to determine the size of the Monte Carlo (MC) candidate sample pool which satisfies the requirement of variation coefficient of failure probability. It will lead to a reduction in the calculation efficiency of reliability analysis. To avoid this defect, a new method for determining the optimal size of the MC candidate sample pool is proposed, and a new structural reliability analysis method combining polynomial chaos-based Kriging model (PC-Kriging) with adaptive sampling region is also proposed (PCK-ASR). Firstly, based on the lower limit of the confidence interval, a new method for estimating the optimal size of the MC candidate sample pool is proposed. Secondly, based on the upper limit of the confidence interval, an adaptive sampling region strategy similar to the radial centralized sampling method is developed. Then, the k-means++ clustering technique and the learning function LIF are used to complete the adaptive design of experiments (DoE). Finally, the effectiveness and accuracy of the PCK-ASR method are verified by three numerical examples and one practical engineering example.

• 한국신뢰성학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국신뢰성학회 2006년도 학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.116-125
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• 2006

Piston assemblies, which are key components of hydraulic high pressure pumps & motors, are major failure products operating at high pressure and high speed, and the main failure mode is wearout of the shoe surface. To predict the actual life of piston assemblies. we require to find out the most sensitive parameters and establish related empirical formula. In this study, we analyzed the life of piston and shoe assemblies in accordance with variation of speed, pressure, and temperature to reduce the life test time, then analyzed the result of combined accelerated life test which is applied by high speed, speed pressure, and high temperature simultaneously, and finally developed combined accelerated life test model.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.212-218
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• 2010

This paper shows accuracy comparison results of reliability estimation methods for one-shot systems with respect to sample sizes. To compare accuracy in reliability estimation methods, quantal-response data, characterizing one-shot systems, were simulated using failure times of LED obtained through the accelerated life test, and then the true reliability over time was evaluated using the failure times. The simulated quantal-response data were used to estimate the true reliability through applying reliability estimation methods in open literature. Accuracy of each reliability estimation method was compared in terms of both SSE (Sum of Squared Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error), and then estimation trend for each method is found. Feasible bounds which true reliability would exist within were estimated through applying the found trends to quantal-response data set of a real weapon system.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.137-151
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• 2007

Posbist reliability of typical systems is preliminarily discussed in Cai (1991). In this paper, we focus on the posbist reliability analysis of some typical systems in depth. First, the lifetime of the system is dealt as a fuzzy variable defined on the possibility space (U, ${\phi}$, $P_{oss}$) and the universe of discourse is expanded from (0, $+{\infty}$) to ($-{\infty},\;+{\infty}$). Then, a concrete possibility distribution function of the fuzzy variable is given, i.e., a Gaussian fuzzy variable. Finally, posbist reliability of typical systems (series, parallel, series-parallel, parallel-series, cold redundant system) is deduced. The expansion makes the proofs of some theorems straightforward and allows us to easily obtain the posbist reliability of typical systems. To illustrate the method a numerical example is given.

• 한국산업융합학회 논문집
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.211-217
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• 2010

As the vehicle components are various, we confront unexpected problems in the development and application of them. also warranty expenses occur in the result of unconfirmed warranty.in this paper, to solve the problems of disconnection of damper Strut cable, we applied the optimum conditions through taguchi method for improvement of durability. and we made standard of reliability by weibull analysis of the field data. we acquired reliability standard by correlation with lab data and confirmed improved components satisfying the target of reliability. The analysis of reliability by field data is very useful and we need to apply this method to other components, the correlation between field data and Lab Test has influence on satisfying the target of reliability.this method would be utilized for current mass production components and upcoming developed components. the reliability of durability should be continuously used in the basis of primary technique in cope with competitive automotive companies.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.327-342
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• 2005

전자 패키지가 열을 받을 때 회로기판과 칩의 열팽창계수 차이에 의해 발생되는 응력은 솔더 조인트의 파손에 영향을 미친다. 본 연구에서는 이 영향을 정량적으로 규명하기 위하여 열충격시험기를 이용해 얻어진 솔더 조인트의 전기저항 변화와 수명과의 상관관계를 규명하였고, BGA솔더 조인트의 수명을 정량적으로 도출하였다. 또한 Sn-3.5Ag-0.5Cu 무연 솔더와 63Sn-37Pb 유연 솔더를 위의 실험에 동시에 적용시켜 건전성을 FORM(first-order reliability method)과 Weibull Function Model을 이용해 비교하였다.

• 한국신뢰성학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국신뢰성학회 2005년도 학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.287-294
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• 2005

전자 패키지가 열을 받을 때 회로기판과 칩의 열팽창계수 차이에 의해 발생되는 응력은 솔더 조인트의 파손에 영향을 미친다. 본 연구에서는 이 영향을 정량적으로 규명하기 위하여 열충격시험기를 이용해 얻어진 솔더조인트의 전기저항 변화와 수명과의 상관관계를 규명하였고, BGA 솔더조인트의 수명을 정량적으로 도출하였다. 또한 Sn-3.5Ag-0.5Cu 무연솔더와 63Sn-37Pb 유연솔더를 위의 실험에 동시에 적용시켜 건전성을 FORM(first-order reliability method)과 Weibull Function Model을 이용해 비교하였다.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2008년도 추계학술대회A
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• pp.1016-1021
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• 2008

In this study, effective methods for reliability estimation and reliability-based design optimization(RBDO) are proposed using kriging metamodel and genetic algorithm. In our previous study, we proposed the accurate method for reliability estimation using two-staged kriging metamodel and genetic algorithm. In this study, the possibility of applying the previously proposed method to RBDO is examined. The accuracy of that method is much improved than the first order reliability method with similar efficiency. Finally, the effective method for RBDO is proposed and applied to numerical examples. The results are compared to the existing RBDO methods and shown to be very effective and accurate.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.55-63
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• 2013

For a reliability assessment of large machinery parts, reliable data should be obtained from testing many samples for a long time. However, in case of testing these samples, testing cost is excessive; in case of life test for long time, power consumption is high; and in case of accelerated test by over load, very high cost is required to build the life testing device. Especially it is very frequent that the expensive device's life has ended during a accelerated test by over load. In this study, the design mechanism of the life testing device which excels in energy saving during the reliability test of large machinery parts has been introduced.