• Ocean and Polar Research
• /
• 제40권3호
• /
• pp.99-114
• /
• 2018

In the present study, we assess the GloSea5 (Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5) near-surface ocean current forecasts using globally observed surface drifter dataset. Annual mean surface current fields at 0-day forecast lead time are quite consistent with drifter-derived velocity fields, and low values of root mean square (RMS) errors distributes in global oceans, except for regions of high variability, such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, Kuroshio, and Gulf Stream. Moreover a comparison with the global high-resolution forecasting system, HYCOM (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model), signifies that GloSea5 performs well in terms of short-range surface-current forecasts. Predictions from 0-day to 4-week lead time are also validated for the global ocean and regions covering the main ocean basins. In general, the Indian Ocean and tropical regions yield relatively high RMS errors against all forecast lead times, whilst the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans show low values. RMS errors against forecast lead time ranging from 0-day to 4-week reveal the largest increase rate between 0-day and 1-week lead time in all regions. Correlation against forecast lead time also reveals similar results. In addition, a strong westward bias of about $0.2m\;s^{-1}$ is found along the Equator in the western Pacific on the initial forecast day, and it extends toward the Equator of the eastern Pacific as the lead time increases.

• 한국해양환경ㆍ에너지학회지
• /
• 제17권2호
• /
• pp.122-130
• /
• 2014

한반도 여수연안($127^{\circ}37.73^{\prime}E$, $34^{\circ}37.60^{\prime}N$)의 46년(1965-2010년)간 월평균 표면수온의 계절변동과 장기변동추세를 파악하였으며, 시계열모형을 수립하여 향후 12개월의 표면수온을 예측하였다. 여수연안의 연평균 표면수온은 $15.6^{\circ}C$, 연진폭은 $9^{\circ}C$를 보이며, 연위상은 $236^{\circ}$로서 최고수온을 보이는 시기는 8월 26일경으로 나타났다. 장기적으로 여수연안 표면수온은 연간 약 $0.0305^{\circ}C$의 유의한 상승 추세를 가지며, 시기적으로 1981년부터 2010년까지 30년간의 상승 경향이 1966년부터 1995년까지 30년간의 상승 경향보다 현저하며, 계절적으로 겨울철의 상승 경향이 지배적으로 나타났다. 월평균 표면수온을 적합시켜 선택된 시계열모형은 $ARIMA(1,0,0)(2,1,0)_{12}$을 따르며, 수립된 모형에 의한 2010년 월평균 표면수온의 예측치는 8.3%의 평균절대백분율오차(Mean Absolute Percentage Error)를 수반하였다.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
• /
• 제47권2호
• /
• pp.49-62
• /
• 2023

Background: Over the past three decades, gradual eustatic sea-level rise has been considered a primary exogenous factor in the increased frequency of flooding and biological changes in several salt marshes. Under this paradigm, the potential importance of short-term events, such as ocean storminess, in coastal hydrology and ecology is underrepresented in the literature. In this study, a simulation was developed to evaluate the influence of wind waves driven by atmospheric oscillations on sedimentary and vegetation dynamics at the Skallingen salt marsh in southwestern Denmark. The model was built based on long-term data of mean sea level, sediment accretion, and plant species composition collected at the Skallingen salt marsh from 1933-2006. In the model, the submergence frequency (number yr^-1) was estimated as a combined function of wind-driven high water level (HWL) events (> 80 cm Danish Ordnance Datum) affected by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and changes in surface elevation (cm yr^-1). Vegetation dynamics were represented as transitions between successional stages controlled by flooding effects. Two types of simulations were performed: (1) baseline modeling, which assumed no effect of wind-driven sea-level change, and (2) experimental modeling, which considered both normal tidal activity and wind-driven sea-level change. Results: Experimental modeling successfully represented the patterns of vegetation change observed in the field. It realistically simulated a retarded or retrogressive successional state dominated by early- to mid-successional species, despite a continuous increase in surface elevation at Skallingen. This situation is believed to be caused by an increase in extreme HWL events that cannot occur without meteorological ocean storms. In contrast, baseline modeling showed progressive succession towards the predominance of late-successional species, which was not the then-current state in the marsh. Conclusions: These findings support the hypothesis that variations in the NAO index toward its positive phase have increased storminess and wind tides on the North Sea surface (especially since the 1980s). This led to an increased frequency and duration of submergence and delayed ecological succession. Researchers should therefore employ a multitemporal perspective, recognizing the importance of short-term sea-level changes nested within long-term gradual trends.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
• /
• 제27권11호
• /
• pp.47-55
• /
• 2022

최근 우리나라에서도 인공지능 모델을 이용한 수온예측 관련 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있으나 한반도 주변 해역의 수온을 예측한 대부분의 연구는 주로 해수면 온도 예측에 중점을 두고 진행되었다. 반면 본 연구는 XBT(eXpendable Bathythermograph, 소모성 연직수온측정기) 데이터와 기계 학습 모델(RandomForest, XGBoost, LightGBM)을 사용하여 잠수함 작전 및 대잠전(Anti-Submarine Warfare)에 있어서 군사적으로 중요한 동해의 수직 수온분포를 예측하였다. 동해 특정해역의 해수면부터 수심 200m까지 측정된 XBT 데이터를 이용하여 모델을 학습시키고 절대 평균 오차(MAE, Mean Absolute Error)와 수직 수온분포 그래프를 통해 예측정확도를 평가하였다.

• 대기
• /
• 제28권1호
• /
• pp.25-35
• /
• 2018

This study presents future potential sea level change over the seas surrounding Korea using Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 9 model ensemble result from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), downloaded from icdc.zmaw.de. At the end of 21st century, regional sea level changes are projected to rise 37.8, 48.1, 47.7, 65.0 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively with the large uncertainty from about 40 to 60 cm. The results exhibit similar tendency with the global mean sea level rise (SLR) with small differences less than about 3 cm. For the East Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the southern sea of Korea, projected SLR in the Yellow Sea is smaller and SLR in the southern sea is larger than the other coastal seas. Differences among the seas are small within the range of 4 cm. Meanwhile, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) data in 23 years shows that the mean rate of sea level changes around the Yellow Sea is high relative to the other coastal seas. For sea level change, contribution of ice and ocean related components are important, at local scale, Glacial Isostatic Adujstment also needs to be considered.

• Ocean Science Journal
• /
• 제43권4호
• /
• pp.195-208
• /
• 2008

This paper evaluates whether a thermodynamic ocean-carbon model can be used to predict the monthly mean global fields of the surface-water partial pressure of $CO_2$ ($pCO_{2SEA}$) from sea surface salinity (SSS), temperature (SST), and/or nitrate ($NO_3$) concentration using previously published regional total inorganic carbon ($C_T$) and total alkalinity ($A_T$) algorithms. The obtained $pCO_{2SEA}$ values and their amplitudes of seasonal variability are in good agreement with multi-year observations undertaken at the sites of the Bermuda Atlantic Timeseries Study (BATS) ($31^{\circ}50'N$, $60^{\circ}10'W$) and the Hawaiian Ocean Time-series (HOT) ($22^{\circ}45'N$, $158^{\circ}00'W$). By contrast, the empirical models predicted $C_T$ less accurately at the Kyodo western North Pacific Ocean Time-series (KNOT) site ($44^{\circ}N$, $155^{\circ}E$) than at the BATS and HOT sites, resulting in greater uncertainties in $pCO_{2SEA}$ predictions. Our analysis indicates that the previously published empirical $C_T$ and $A_T$ models provide reasonable predictions of seasonal variations in surface-water $pCO_{2SEA}$ within the (sub) tropical oceans based on changes in SSS and SST; however, in high-latitude oceans where ocean biology affects $C_T$ to a significant degree, improved $C_T$ algorithms are required to capture the full biological effect on $C_T$ with greater accuracy and in turn improve the accuracy of predictions of $pCO_{2SEA}$.

• 한국해양공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국해양공학회 2003년도 추계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.340-345
• /
• 2003

This study, as a basic study for establishing a influence forecasting/estimating model when drain the deep sea water to the ocean after using it, carried out studies as follows; 1) estimating the amount of river discharge and pollutant loads inflowing into the developing region of deep sea water in East Sea, Korea 2) a field observation of tidal current, vertical distribution of water temperature and salinity, and 3-D numerical experiment of tidal current to analysis physical oceanographic status. The amount of river discharge flowing into the study area was estimated about $462.6{times}10^{3}m^{3}/day$ of daily mean in 2002 year. annual mean pollutant load of COD, TN and TP were estimated 7.02 ton-COD/day, 4.06 ton-TN/day and 0.39 ton/day, respectively. Field observation of tidal current results usually show about $20{\sim}40cm/sec$ of current velocity at the surface layer, it indicated a tendency that the current velocity decreases under 20cm/sec as the water depth increases. We could find a stratification within approximately the depth of 30m in field observation area, and the depth increases. We could find a stratification within approximately the depth of 30m in field observation area, and the differences of water temperature and salinity between the surface layer and bottom layer were about $18^{\circ}C$ and 0.8 psu, respectively. On the other hand, we found that there was a definite as the water mass of deep sea water about 34 psu of salinity.

• 한국해양공학회지
• /
• 제19권1호
• /
• pp.14-19
• /
• 2005

As a basic study for establishing the input conditions of a forecasting/estimating model, used for deep-sea water drainage to the ocean, this study was carried out as follows: 1) estimating the amount of river discharge and pollutant loads into the developing region of deep sea water in the East Sea, Korea, 2) a field observation of tidal current, vertical water temperature, and salinity distribution, 3) 3-D numerical experiment of tidal current to analyze the physical oceanographic status. The amount of river discharge flowing into this study area was estimated at about $462.7{\times}103 m\^3/day$ of daily mean in 2002. Annual mean pollutant load of COD, TN, and TP were estimated at 7.02 ton-COD/day, 4.06 ton-TN/day, and 0.39 ton/day, respectively. Field observation of tidal current normally shows 20-40cm/sec of current velocity at the surface layer, and it decreases under 20cm/sec as the water depth increases. We also found a stratification condition at around 30m water depth in the observation area. The differences in water temperature and salinity, between the surface layer and the bottom layer, were about 18 C and 0.8 psu, respectively. On the other hand, we found a definite trend of 34 psu salinity water mass in the deep sea region.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
• /
• 제54권4호
• /
• pp.545-561
• /
• 2018

Over the North East Asia, extreme anomalous precipitation were observed in 2013 and 2014. During 2013 summer the precipitation was found to be higher (two standard deviation) than the climatological mean of the region; whereas during 2014, which was a borderline El Ni?o year, precipitation was found to be lower (one standard deviation). To understand the differences of these two anomalous years the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) has been used. The study found that low landsurface temperature and high sea-surface temperature over ocean caused a smaller land-sea contrast of surface temperature between East Asia and North West Pacific Ocean in 2014, which could have caused an eastward shift of mean monsoon circulation in that year compared to the circulation in 2013. Due to a change in the lower level circulation and wind field over East Asia the evaporation and moisture transport patterns became very different in those two years. In 2013, this study found high latent heat flux over Eastern China, which implies an increased surface evaporation over that region, and the moisture transported to the north by the mean monsoon circulation; whereas, there was no correlated transport of moisture to the North East Asia during 2014. The precipitable water over North East Asia has a stronger correlation with the latent heat flux over southern land region than that from Ocean region in the eastern side in both the years. A new approach is proposed to estimate the sub-grid scale hydrometeors from GRIMs, overestimated in the existing model.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 대한원격탐사학회 2007년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2007
• /
• pp.33-36
• /
• 2007

We have persistently constructed gridded products of surface wind/wind stress over the world ocean using satellite scatterometer (ERS and Qscat). They are available for users as the Japanese Ocean Flux data sets with Use of Remote sensing Observation (J-OFURO) data together with heat flux components. Recently, a new version data of the Qscat/SeaWinds based on improved algorithm for rain flag and high wind-speed range have been delivered, and allowed us to reconstruct gridded product with higher spatial resolution. These products are validated by comparisons with in-situ measurement data by mooring buoys such as TAO/TRITON, NDBC and the Kuroshio Extension Observation (KEO) buoys, together with numerical weather prediction model products such as the NCEP-1 and 2. Results reveal that the new product has almost the same magnitude in mean difference as the previous version of Qscat product and much smaller than the NCEP-1 and 2. On the other hand, it is slightly larger root-mean-square (RMS) difference than the previous one and NCEPs for the comparison using the KEO buoy data. This may be due to the deficit of high wind speed data in the buoy measurement. The high resolution product, together with sea surface temperature (SST) one, is used to examine a new type of relationship between the lower atmosphere and upper ocean in the Kuroshio Extension region.