• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.116-123
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• 2016

The quantitative risk assessment methods for thermal failure in targets were studied using fire modeling. To this end, Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), as a representative fire model, was used and the probabilities related to thermal damage to an electrical cable were evaluated according to the change in fire area inside a specific compartment. 'The maximum probability of exceeding the damage thresholds' adopted in a conservative point of view and 'the probability of failure' including the time to damage were compared. The probability of failure suggested in the present study could evaluate the quantitative fire risk more realistically, compared to the maximum probability of exceeding the damage thresholds with the assumption that thermal damage occurred the instant the target reached its minimum failure criteria in terms of the surface temperature and heat flux.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.83-94
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• 1996

The probability of Yut was calculated by using the physical property in previous study, but this article suggested empirical estimators for probability of Yut. In practice, physics-based probability imposes too strong assumptions, which result in the difference between the calculated probabilies and empirical relative frequencies. Experiment shows the probabilities of Yut depend on the integrated shape of Yut rather than the floor type. Maximum likelihood estimator and empirical Bayes estimators are compared and all turn out to be almost identicla for more than 40 trials. For smaller number of trials, Bayes estimators are recommended for its stability. Regression approach is also adopted as an easy-to-use method without empirical trials.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.607-617
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• 1998

Comparisons of joint probability density distribution obtained from the raw data of measured droplet sizes and velocities in a transient diesel fuel spray with computed joint probability density function were made. Simultaneous droplet sizes and velocities were obtained using PDPA. Mathematical probability density functions which can fit the experimental distributions were extracted using the principle of maximum likelihood. Through the statistical process of functions, mean droplet diameters, non-dimensional mass, momentum and kinetic energy were estimated and compared with the experimental ones. A joint log-hyperbolic density function presents quite well the experimental joint density distribution which were extracted from experimental data.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2004.10a
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• pp.630-633
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• 2004

Generally, component and FR-4 board are connected by solder joint. Because material properties of components and FR-4 board are different, component and FR-4 board show different coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) and thus strains in component and board are different when they are heated. That is, the differences in CTE of component and FR-4 board cause the dissimilarity in shear strain and BGA solder joint s failure. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function incorporating with thermal fatigue models is used in order to estimate the failure probability of solder joints under heated condition. A model based on plastic-strain rate such as the Coffin-Manson Fatigue Model is utilized in this study. The effects of random variables such as frequency, maximum temperature, and temperature variations on the failure probability of the BGA solder joint are systematically investigated by using a failure probability model with the first order reliability method(FORM).

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.151-165
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• 1997

We propose a method for estimating the probability of perfect PM from successive failure times of a repairable system. The system under study is maintained preventively at periodic times, and it undergoes minimal repair at failure. We consider Brown-Proschan imperfect PM model in which the system is restored to a condition as good as new with probability P and is otherwise restored to its condition just prior to failure. We discuss the identifiability problem when the PM modes are not recorded. The expectation-maximization principle is employed to handle the incomplete data problem. We assume that the lifetime distribution belongs to a parametric family with increasing failure rate. For the two parameter Weibull lifetime distribution, we propose a specific algorithm for finding the maximum lifelihood estimates of the reliability parameters : the probability of perfect PM (P), as well as the distribution parameters. The estimation method will provide useful results for maintaining real systems.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2003.05a
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• pp.311-314
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• 2003

Concrete structures such as bridge, pavement, airfield, and offshore structure are normally subjected to repeated load. This paper proposes a failure probability models of concrete subjected to split tension repeated-loads, based on experimental results. The fatigue tests were performed at the stress ratio of 0.1, the loading shape of sine, the frequency of 20Hz, and the stress levels of 90, 80 and 70%. The fatigue test specimen was 150mm in diameter and 75mm in thickness. The fatigue analysis did not include which exceeded 0.9 of statistical coefficient of determination values or did not failure at 2$\times$$10^6$ cycles. The graphical method, the moment method, and maximum likelihood estimation method were used to obtain Weibull distribution parameters. The goodness-of-fit test by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was acceptable 5% level of significance. As a result, the proposed failure probability model based on the two-parameter($\alpha and \mu$) Weibull distribution was good enough to estimate accurately the fatigue life subjected to tension mode.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.497-505
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• 1997

We attempt to get a probabilistic model of a queueing system in the maximum entropy condition. Applying the maximum entropy principle to the queueing system, we obtain the most uncertain probability model compatible with the available information expressed by moments.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1995.11a
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• pp.146-148
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• 1995

A CFAR algorithm for weibull clutter is discussed. The Maximum a posteriori(MAP) estimator for two parameters(skewness and scale) of the weibull clutter is proposed, assuming the probability density function of skewness parameter is known. And proposed MAP estimator is compared with the Maximum likelihood(ML) estimator. Using this MAP estimator, we can design CFAR detector which is shown to have smaller CFAR loss than ML CFAR detector by the statistical simulation method.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.38A no.12
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• pp.1054-1060
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• 2013

This paper proposes a vehicle ad-hoc network (VANET) routing algorithm to reduce the probability of routing path discontinuity in urban intersections. In urban intersections, the vehicles may frequently change their moving directions. It can cause the disconnection of routing path and the increase of a packet transmission delay. In order to resolve this problem, the proposed routing algorithm exploits the information of moving directions in urban intersections. In this way, the proposed algorithm can reduce the probability of the local maximum which causes the increase of the number of routing hops and packet transmission delay. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can reduce the local maximum probability by 10% and increase the successful packet transmission ratio by 5% compared to the conventional VANET routing algorithms.

• Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.219-229
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• 1996

In the free molecular flow range, the pumping performance of a turbomolecular pump has been predicted by calculation of the transmission probability employing the integral method and the test particle Monte-Carlo method. The velocities of molecules incident upon a moving blade are given by the random numbers, which are sampled from the Maxwell molecular velocity distribution function. The present results agree quantitatively with the previous known numerical results. For a multi-stage pump, the velocity profile of molecules between two blade rows is not Maxwell distribution. In this case, the Monte-Carlo method is employed to calculate the overall transmission probability for the entire set of blade rows. When the results of the approximate method combining the single stage solutions are compared with those of the Monte-Carlo method for the pump having six rows at C=0.6, the approximate method overestimates as much as 36% in the maximum compression ratio and 19% in the maximum pumping speed than does the Mote-Carlo method.