• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.649-654
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• 2005

Shallow slope failures in residual soil during periods of prolonged infiltration are common over the world. One of the key factors that dominate slope stability is hydrological response associated with infiltration. Hence, the soil-water profile during rainfall infiltration into unsaturated soil must me examined to evaluate slope stability. However, the hydraulic response of unsaturated soil is complicated by inherent uncertainties of the soil hydraulic properties. This study presents a methodology for assessing the effects of parameter uncertainty of hydraulic properties on the response of a analytical infiltration model using first-order reliability method. The unsaturated soil properties are considered as uncertain variables with means, standard deviations, and marginal probability distributions. Sensitivities of the probabilistic outcome to the basic uncertainties in the input random variables are provided through importance factors.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.64-72
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• 2016

In this paper, we utilize a Gaussian process to predict the power consumption in the air-conditioning system. As the power consumption in the air-conditioning system takes a form of a time-series and the prediction of the power consumption becomes very important from the perspective of the efficient energy management, it is worth to investigate the time-series model for the prediction of the power consumption. To this end, we apply the Gaussian process to predict the power consumption, in which the Gaussian process provides a prior probability to every possible function and higher probabilities are given to functions that are more likely consistent with the empirical data. We also discuss how to estimate the hyper-parameters, which are parameters in the covariance function of the Gaussian process model. We estimated the hyper-parameters with two different methods (marginal likelihood and leave-one-out cross validation) and obtained a model that pertinently describes the data and the results are more or less independent of the estimation method of hyper-parameters. We validated the prediction results by the error analysis of the mean relative error and the mean absolute error. The mean relative error analysis showed that about 3.4% of the predicted value came from the error, and the mean absolute error analysis confirmed that the error in within the standard deviation of the predicted value. We also adopt the non-parametric Wilcoxon's sign-rank test to assess the fitness of the proposed model and found that the null hypothesis of uniformity was accepted under the significance level of 5%. These results can be applied to a more elaborate control of the power consumption in the air-conditioning system.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Power Electronics
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.215-222
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• 1999

Integrating energy storage into electlic power system has long been recognized as a way to maximize a utility's g generation and transmission capacity, Electlic power can be stored during off-peak periods and then recovered during p peak conditions to offset the need for larger generation and transmission capacity, Currently large-scale SMES for the p purpose of energystorage which can be also se$\pi$ed by battery storage or flywheel system has been developed, and near f future it will be integrated into power grids, This paper presents an investment analysis on large-scale SMES which c can determine its optimal size in power systems, In operation model. least generation cost for energy storage in SMES a and its mar밍nal capacity cost can be calculated using the discreteness of probability distribution for power availability I Investment decisions are made by the maximum p디nciple and the case study shows the optimal operation and realistic i information on the proper size of large-scale SMES in power systems.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.125-139
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• 2021

Background: In Korea, the health gap widens due to the number of medical resources and access to medical services between metropolitan and rural. The purpose of this study is to identify the impact of residential migration on medical utilization and accessibility. Methods: This study extracted 528,516 claimed cases in the National Health Insurance Service-Cohort Sample Database from 2006 to 2015. Subjects were classified into two groups by the magnitude of the region, the metropolitan and the rural. The inversed probability weights were calculated for each group. And coefficients of the two-part model were estimated by generalized estimation equation. Results: Those who moved region from metropolitan to rural tend to increase the length of stay and inpatients with ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) disease. Contrariwise, those who moved areas from rural to metropolitan tend to decrease the total medical cost, the adjusted patient days, the number of outpatients and the number of outpatients and inpatients with ACSC disease. Conclusion: This study identified that between the residents who continued to reside in the region and the migrants, there were significant differences in the medical accessibility, quality of primary care, and unmet medical need.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.86 no.1
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• pp.87-97
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• 1997

In this research, photo images of uncultivated marginal lands were simulated to visualize alternative land use patterns using image capture technology. Based on an original photos, 3 simulated images were created ; barren condition, aforested condition and shrub-covered condition. The simulated images were then used to evaluate respondents' visual preference(SBE value) and willingness to pay for the agricultural development tax as a hypothetical payment vehicle. The SBE values for barren condition are the lowest, as expected. When original condition is changed to forested or shrubbed, the SBE values are increased significantly. The logistic models for the willingness to pay for the various alternative land uses performed significantly, ${\rho}$ statistics for 6 models ranges from 0.3 to 0.4 and correct percentage for predicted probability are about 75%. Among independent variables, the amount of tax offered is the most influencing factor to predict the probability. Income also shows some relationship with no statistical significance. Other variables behave inconsistently in the model. When SBE and WTP are correlated, rather consistent trends can be observed. With the increase of SBE, WTP predicted by the model increases accordingly. It can be concluded that enhancement of scenic quality of the agricultural lands leads to increase of people's willingness to pay to support the rural environmental conservation.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.323-338
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• 2009

This study analyzes the changes in commuter's mode choice between 2002 and 2006 according to the implement of the integrated public transit system in Seoul metropolitan city. Especially this study focuses on differential changes in a transit modal choice among socioeconomic status, trip purpose and spatial characteristics of origin and destination. The probability of public transit use against automobile is modeled as a function of socioeconomic variables, spatial characteristics of origin and destination and the utility of the commuter's mode. The results from conditional logit model analyses suggest that people with lower income show the larger changes in the ratio of public transit choice between 2002-06. Also both higher density, more accessible to public transit and more diverse land uses in residence zone and in work place generally increase the ratio of public transit choice between 2002-06. Car and subway have the most strong alternative relation in commuter's mode choice. The findings give an important implication that the integrated public transit system has differential impacts on commuter's mode choice in Seoul.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.329-338
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• 2019

In this study, we analyze consumer preferences based on the agricultural box scheme attributes, and make a suggestion for business revival. We estimate the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for box scheme attributes using a choice experiment. Attributes include the bundle method, the delivery method, and price. To select an efficient model for statistical analysis, we evaluate the conditional logit model, heteroscedastic extreme value model(HEV model), multinomial probit model, and mixed logit model under different assumptions. The results of these four models show that the bundle method, the delivery method, and price are statistically significant in explaining the probability of participation in a box scheme. The results of likelihood ratio tests show that the heteroscedastic extreme value model is the most appropriate for our survey data. The results also indicate that MWTP for a change from fixed type to selection type is KRW 7,096.6. MWTP for a change from parcel service to direct delivery and cold-chain delivery are KRW 3,497.5 and KRW 7,532.7, respectively. The results of this study may contribute to the government's local food policies.

• Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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• v.46 no.6
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• pp.405-414
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• 2016

Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the effects of a policy change to expand Korean National Health Insurance (KNHI) benefit coverage to include scaling on access to dental care at the national level. Methods: A nationally representative sample of 12,794 adults aged 20 to 64 years from Korea National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (2010-2014) was analyzed. To examine the effect of the policy on the outcomes of interest (unmet dental care needs and preventive dental care utilization in the past year), an estimates-based probit model was used, incorporating marginal effects with a complex sampling structure. The effect of the policy on individuals depending on their income and education level was also assessed. Results: Adjusting for potential covariates, the probability of having unmet needs for dental care decreased by 6.1% and preventative dental care utilization increased by 14% in the post-policy period compared to those in the pre-policy period (2010, 2012). High income and higher education levels were associated with fewer unmet dental care needs and more preventive dental visits. Conclusions: The expansion of coverage to include scaling demonstrated to have a significant association with decreasing unmet dental care needs and increasing preventive dental care utilization. However, the policy disproportionately benefited certain groups, in contrast with the objective of the policy to benefit all participants in the KNHI system.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.99-128
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• 2008

Nearly all Koreans are insured through National Health Insurance(NHI). While NHI coverage is nearly universal, it is not complete. Coverage is largely limited to minimal level of hospital and physician expenses, and copayments are required in each case. As a result, Korea's public insurance system covers roughly 50% of overall individual health expenditures, and the remaining 50% consists of copayments for basic services, spending on services that are either not covered or poorly covered by the public system. In response to these gaps in the public system, 64% of the Korean population has supplemental private health insurance. Expansion of private health insurance raises negative externality issue. Like public financing schemes in other countries, the Korean system imposes cost-sharing on patients as a strategy for controlling utilization. Because most insurance policies reimburse patients for their out-of-pocket payments, supplemental insurance is likely to negate the impact of the policy, raising both total and public sector health spending. So far, most empirical analysis of supplemental health insurance to date has focused on the US Medigap programme. It is found that those with supplements apparently consume more health care. Two reasons for higher health care consumption by those with supplements suggest themselves. One is the moral hazard effect: by eliminating copayments and deductibles, supplements reduce the marginal price of care and induce additional consumption. The other explanation is that supplements are purchased by those who anticipate high health expenditures - adverse effect. The main issue addressed has been the separation of the moral hazard effect from the adverse selection one. The general conclusion is that the evidence on adverse selection based on observable variables is mixed. This article investigates the extent to which private supplementary insurance affect use of health care services by public health insurance enrollees, using Korean administrative data and private supplements related data collected through all relevant private insurance companies. I applied a multivariate two-part model to analyze the effects of various types of supplements on the likelihood and level of public health insurance spending and estimated marginal effects of supplements. Separate models were estimated for inpatients and outpatients in public insurance spending. The first part of the model estimated the likelihood of positive spending using probit regression, and the second part estimated the log of spending for those with positive spending. Use of a detailed information of individuals' public health insurance from administration data and of private insurance status from insurance companies made it possible to control for health status, the types of supplemental insurance owned by theses individuals, and other factors that explain spending variations across supplemental insurance categories in isolating the effects of supplemental insurance. Data from 2004 to 2006 were used, and this study found that private insurance increased the probability of a physician visit by less than 1 percent and a hospital admission by about 1 percent. However, supplemental insurance was not found to be associated with a bigger health care service utilization. Two-part models of health care utilization and expenditures showed that those without supplemental insurance had higher inpatient and outpatient expenditures than those with supplements, even after controlling for observable differences.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.53 no.4
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• pp.423-429
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• 2017

As invigoration plan of the marine tourism, Busan City has the plan to operate the cruise ship inside of the harbor, but the area has narrow water way with heavy traffic. As a result it is requested to evaluate the safety for the preparation of actual navigation. In this study, the Ship Handling Simulation (SHS) Assessment was conducted, which is regulated by the Maritime Traffic Safety Audit Scheme (MTSAS) in compliance with the Marine Safety Law and the Maritime Traffic Risk Assessment System based on the Electronic Chart Display and Information System (ECDIS). The proximity assessment, control assessment and subjective assessment were implemented, which is enacted by the Marine Safety Law by using the SHS. In the case of proximity assessment, the probability of trespass was not analyzed. As the control assessment, the swept path was measured at 11.7 m and 11.5 m for port entry and port departure respectively, which exceeded the width of the model vessel, 10.4 m over; it was considered as a marginal factor. As a result of the subjective evaluation of the navigator, there would be no difficulty on ship maneuvering by paying particular attention to the mooring vessel nearby the Busan Bridge and Yeongdo Bridge as well as the coming vessel from the invisible sea area when the vessel is entering and departing the port. The Marine Traffic Risk Assessment System analyzed as [Cautious] level until the vessel passed the Busan bridge and the curved area at 5 kts and it became to [Dangerous] level from where it left 75 m to the Busan Bridge. When the vessel passed the Busan Bridge and the curved area at 10 kts and entered the narrow area, it indicated the [Dangerous] level and became to [Very dangerous] level from where it left 410 m to the Busan bridge. In conclusion, the vessel should maintain at the speed of 5 kts to reduce the risk when it passes this area.