• Title/Summary/Keyword: MCS Level

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ESTIMATING THE LOSS RATIO OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC ELECTRICITY GENERATION THROUGH STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS

  • Taehoon Hong;Choongwan Koo;Minhyun Lee
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2013.01a
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    • pp.375-385
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    • 2013
  • As climate change and environmental pollution become one of the biggest global issues today, new renewable energy, especially solar photovoltaic (PV) system, is getting great attention as a sustainable energy source. However, initial investment cost of PV system is considerable, and thus, it is crucial to predict electricity generation accurately before installation of the system. This study analyzes the loss ratio of solar photovoltaic electricity generation from the actual PV system monitoring data to predict electricity generation more accurately in advance. This study is carried out with the following five steps: (i) Data collection of actual electricity generation from PV system and the related information; (ii) Calculation of simulation-based electricity generation; (iii) Comparative analysis between actual electricity generation and simulation-based electricity generation based on the seasonality; (iv) Stochastic approach by defining probability distribution of loss ratio between actual electricity generation and simulation-based electricity generation ; and (v) Case study by conducting Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) based on the probability distribution function of loss ratio. The results of this study could be used (i) to estimate electricity generation from PV system more accurately before installation of the system, (ii) to establish the optimal maintenance strategy for the different application fields and the different season, and (iii) to conduct feasibility study on investment at the level of life cycle.

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Estimating the compound risk integrated hydrological / hydraulic / geotechnical uncertainty of levee systems (수문·수리학적 / 지반공학적 불확실성을 고려한 제방의 복합위험도 산정)

  • Nam, Myeong Jun;Lee, Jae Young;Lee, Cheol Woo;Kim, Ki Young
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.277-288
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    • 2017
  • A probabilistic risk analysis of levee system estimates the overall level of flood risk associated with the levee system, according to a series of possible flood scenarios. It requires the uncertainty analysis of all the risk components, including hydrological, hydraulic and geotechnical parts computed by employing MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo), MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) and FOSM (First-Order Second Moment), presents a joint probability combined each probability. The methodology was applied to a 12.5 km reach from upstream to downstream of the Gangjeong-Goryeong weir, including 6 levee reaches, in Nakdong river. Overtopping risks were estimated by computing flood stage corresponding to 100/200 year high quantile (97.5%) design flood causing levee overflow. Geotechnical risks were evaluated by considering seepage, slope stability, and rapid drawdown along the levee reach without overflow. A probability-based compound risk will contribute to rising effect of safety and economic aspects for levee design, then expect to use the index for riverside structure design in the future.

Development of Stochastic Decision Model for Estimation of Optimal In-depth Inspection Period of Harbor Structures (항만 구조물의 최적 정밀점검 시기 추정을 위한 추계학적 결정모형의 개발)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2016
  • An expected-discounted cost model based on RRP(Renewal Reward Process), referred to as a stochastic decision model, has been developed to estimate the optimal period of in-depth inspection which is one of critical issues in the life-cycle maintenance management of harbor structures such as rubble-mound breakwaters. A mathematical model, which is a function of the probability distribution of the service-life, has been formulated by simultaneously adopting PIM(Periodic Inspection and Maintenance) and CBIM(Condition-Based Inspection and Maintenance) policies so as to resolve limitations of other models, also all the costs in the model associated with monitoring and repair have been discounted with time. From both an analytical solution derived in this paper under the condition in which a failure rate function is a constant and the sensitivity analyses for the variety of different distribution functions and conditions, it has been confirmed that the present solution is more versatile than the existing solution suggested in a very simplified setting. Additionally, even in that case which the probability distribution of the service-life is estimated through the stochastic process, the present model is of course also well suited to interpret the nonlinearity of deterioration process. In particular, a MCS(Monte-Carlo Simulation)-based sample path method has been used to evaluate the parameters of a damage intensity function in stochastic process. Finally, the present stochastic decision model can satisfactorily be applied to armor units of rubble mound breakwaters. The optimal periods of in-depth inspection of rubble-mound breakwaters can be determined by minimizing the expected total cost rate with respect to the behavioral feature of damage process, the level of serviceability limit, and the consequence of that structure.

QoS Guarantee for Service Classes based on Performance Analysis of Cross-Layer Retransmission Scheme (다 계층 재전송 방식 성능 분석을 통한 서비스별 QoS 보장 기법)

  • Go, Kwang-Chun;Lee, Hyun-Jin;Kim, Jae-Hyun;Choo, Sang-Min
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.35 no.2A
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    • pp.95-104
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    • 2010
  • In wireless communication system, a variety of retransmission algorithms are used in order to improve the quality of service of users. But the system may be inefficient because retransmission algorithms operate independently with other layers. Also, the quality of service can be degraded due to the unnecessary retransmission of packets. To solve these problems, the study on the cross-layer retransmission schemes have been widely performed. However, in order to apply cross-layer retransmission schemes to wireless communication system, whether the performance of cross-layer retransmission schemes meets QoS requirements of each service class has to be verified. Thus, this paper proposes the mathematical model for analyzing the performance of the cross-layer retransmission schemes and derives both the suitable retransmission scheme and the optimal retransmission parameter on each service class. The proposed mathematical model selects the MCS level based on channel state information and The performance analysis is comparatively easy in case that HARQ, ARQ, and AMC schemes are combined. The proposed mathematical model also enables the analysis of the packet transmission delay. To utilize the analytical model, this paper derives the suitable retransmission scheme and the optimal retransmission parameter for delay sensitive services in WiMAX system. Also, the proposed analytical model can be used to analyze the performance of wireless communication system such as LTE and WLAN.

Evaluation of Psychosocial Impact and Quality of Life in BRCA Mutation Family (BRCA 돌연변이 가계의 심리상태 및 삶의 질 평가)

  • Han, Sang-Ah;Kim, Sai-Rhee;Kang, Eun-Young;Kim, Jeong-Hyun;Ha, Tae-Hyeon;Yang, Eun-Joo;Lim, Jae-Young;Han, Won-Shik;Noh, Dong-Young;Kim, Sung-Won
    • Journal of Genetic Medicine
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.67-77
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: The aims of this study are to evaluate psychological impact and quality of life according to the cancer diagnosis and mutation status in Korean families with BRCA mutations. Materials and Methods: Seventeen affected carriers (AC), 16 unaffected carriers (UC) and 13 healthy non carriers (NC) from 13 BRCA mutation families were included in the study. Outcomes were compared with regard to depression (Beck Depression Inventory), anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, STAI), optimism (Reevaluation of the Life Orientation test, LOT-R), knowledge of hereditary ovarian cancer, and quality of life (QoL) (SF-36v2 Health Survey, physical component score [PCS], mental component score [MCS]) among three groups. Result: Level of depression, optimism, and PCS were similar in AC, UC, and NC. Anxiety score was elevated in all three groups. MCS was significantly low in AC than in UC and NC (P=0.009, P=0.017). Knowledge of hereditary breast and ovarian cancer was high in AC than NC (P=0.001). MCS was significantly related to whether patient was affected by cancer (P=0.043) and has occupation (P=0.008) or not in multivariable analysis. Conclusion: From this cross sectional study, psychological adverse effect was not related to the carrier status of BRCA mutation. Elevated anxiety in BRCA family members was observed but, independent to affection and the type of genetic mutation. AC showed low mental QoL. Further effort to understand psychological impact and QoL of genetic testing in BRCA family members is required for follow-up in clinical aspects.

Dynamic Response based Reliability Analysis of Structure with Passive Damper - Part 1: Assessment of Member Failure Probability (수동형 댐퍼를 장착한 구조물의 동적응답기반 신뢰성 해석 - 제1편: 부재별 파괴확률 산정)

  • Kim, Seung-Min;Ok, Seung-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.90-96
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    • 2016
  • This study proposes a dynamic reliability analysis of control system as a method of quantitative evaluation of its performance in probabilistic terms. In this dynamic reliability analysis, the failure event is defined as an event that the dynamic response of the structural system exceeds a displacement limit, whereas the conventional reliability analysis method has limitations that do not properly assess the actual time history response of the structure subjected to dynamic loads, such as earthquakes and high winds, by taking the static response into account in the failure event. In this first paper, we discuss the control effect of the viscous damper on the seismic performance of the member-level failure where the failure event of the structural member consists of the union set of time-sequential member failures during the earthquake excitations and the failure probability of the earthquake-excited structural member is computed using system reliability approach to consider the statistical dependence of member failures between the subsequent time points. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach can present a reliable assessment of the control performance of the viscous damper system in comparison with MCS method. The most important advantage of the proposed approach can provide us more accurate estimate of failure probability of the structural control system by using the actual time-history responses obtained by dynamic response analysis.

System Level Performance Evaluation and Throughput Enhancement Algorithm of MBS (MBS의 전송률 증대 알고리즘 및 시스템 레벨 성능평가)

  • Seo, Seong-Young;Park, Dong-Chan;Kim, Suk-Chan;Kim, Young-Il
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.35 no.2B
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    • pp.345-351
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    • 2010
  • It has been growing interests that convergence services of broadcasting and telecommunication services such as DMB 2.0 and Mobile IPTV etc. Unicast type is difficult to service broadcasting due to limits of capacity and poor receiving environments, WiBro supports broadcast service with MBS. MBS is transmission method that base stations belong to same the MBS zone transmit the all users who request broadcasting service. Terminals are received resources from all base station in the MBS zone and SINR can be improved because of macro diversity. If terminals are located at edge of the MBS zone, complement algorithm are needed beacause received SINR is very low. In this paper, MIMO STBC, Relay and FFR are introduced to improve the throughputs using high MCS. The basic simulation environment is assumed to be SISO. Transparent relay and FFR applicable on MBS are divided by SISO and MIMO STBC environment and evaluate the performance.

Automatic Document Classification Using Multiple Classifier Systems (다중 분류기 시스템을 이용한 자동 문서 분류)

  • Kim, In-Cheol
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.11B no.5
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    • pp.545-554
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    • 2004
  • Combining multiple classifiers to obtain improved performance over the individual classifier has been a widely used technique. The task of constructing a multiple classifier system(MCS) contains two different Issues how to generate a diverse set of base-level classifiers and how to combine their predictions. In this paper, we review the characteristics of existing multiple classifier systems : Bagging, Boosting, and Slaking. For document classification, we propose new MCSs such as Stacked Bagging, Stacked Boosting, Bagged Stacking, Boosted Stacking. These MCSs are a sort of hybrid MCSs that combine advantages of existing MCSs such as Bugging, Boosting, and Stacking. We conducted some experiments of document classification to evaluate the performances of the proposed schemes on MEDLINE, Usenet news, and Web document collections. The result of experiments demonstrate the superiority of our hybrid MCSs over the existing ones.

A Simple AMC Technique using ARQ for a MIMO-OFDM System based on IEEE 802.11a WLANs (IEEE 802.11a WLAN 기반 MIMO-OFDM 시스템에서 ARQ를 이용한 간단한 적응변조 기법)

  • 유승연;김경연;이충용;홍대식;박현철
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.41 no.7
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2004
  • A simple AMC (Adaptive Modulation and Coding) technique using ARQ (Automatic Repeat Request) for a MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output) system is proposed which does not require the additional feedback. In addition, the proposed AMC technique is different from the conventional technique in the aspect of considering the MCS (Modulation and Coding Scheme) level from the previous packet. The proposed technique can discard fewer amounts of unsuitable packets than the conventional technique. In the proposed system not only same rate control method for transmit antennas but also individual rate control method can be applied. The performance of the proposed technique is verified under a MIMO-OFDM (Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing) system based on WLAN (Wireless Local Area Network), IEEE 802.11a. The results of the computer simulation show that a MIMO system with the proposed technique achieves higher throughput than one with a fixed transmission rate.

Accumulation and Inhibitory Effects of Microcystin on the Growth of Rice and Broccoli

  • Maejima, Kazuhiko;Muraoka, Terukazu;Park, Ho-Dong
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.47 no.spc
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    • pp.19-30
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    • 2014
  • Microcystins (MCs) produced by cyanobacteria are severe hepatotoxins for mammalian and protein phosphatase inhibitors. Irrigation water for grain and vegetables is often contaminated with cyanobacteria and microcystin during warm seasons. We assessed the effects of various concentrations (0, 0.01 to $10{\mu}gmL^{-1}$) of microcystin-LR (MC-LR) and microcystin-RR (MC-RR) exposure on Oryza sativa (rice) and Brassica oleraces var. italica (broccoli). The $EC_{50}$ of leaves and roots of rice was 0.9 and $1.1{\mu}gMC-LRmL^{-1}$, respectively. The no observed effect level (NOEL) of rice was less than $0.1{\mu}gmL^{-1}$ ($100{\mu}gL^{-1}$). The $EC_{50}$ of the stems and roots of broccoli was 8.7 and $7.2{\mu}gMC-RRmL^{-1}$, respectively. There was no difference in the germination rate of broccoli among microcystin-RR concentrations. After exposure to 0, 0.01 to $10{\mu}gmL^{-1}$ MC-RR for seven days, 14, 89 and 154 ng mg-1 (dry weight) MC-RR accumulated in B. oleracea. These $EC_{50}$ values showed that microcystin-LR and -RR affected the growth of rice and broccoli. These findings suggest that MC is carried into terrestrial ecosystems via irrigation, and that the biota of higher ecological niches can be influenced by MC through bioaccumulation. Therefore, a guideline for MC concentrations in irrigation water should be set using the NOEL.