• Title/Summary/Keyword: Linear predictive model

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A Robust Energy Consumption Forecasting Model using ResNet-LSTM with Huber Loss

  • Albelwi, Saleh
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.7
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    • pp.301-307
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    • 2022
  • Energy consumption has grown alongside dramatic population increases. Statistics show that buildings in particular utilize a significant amount of energy, worldwide. Because of this, building energy prediction is crucial to best optimize utilities' energy plans and also create a predictive model for consumers. To improve energy prediction performance, this paper proposes a ResNet-LSTM model that combines residual networks (ResNets) and long short-term memory (LSTM) for energy consumption prediction. ResNets are utilized to extract complex and rich features, while LSTM has the ability to learn temporal correlation; the dense layer is used as a regression to forecast energy consumption. To make our model more robust, we employed Huber loss during the optimization process. Huber loss obtains high efficiency by handling minor errors quadratically. It also takes the absolute error for large errors to increase robustness. This makes our model less sensitive to outlier data. Our proposed system was trained on historical data to forecast energy consumption for different time series. To evaluate our proposed model, we compared our model's performance with several popular machine learning and deep learning methods such as linear regression, neural networks, decision tree, and convolutional neural networks, etc. The results show that our proposed model predicted energy consumption most accurately.

Nonlinear QSAR Study of Xanthone and Curcuminoid Derivatives as α-Glucosidase Inhibitors

  • Saihi, Youcef;Kraim, Khairedine;Ferkous, Fouad;Djeghaba, Zeineddine;Azzouzi, Abdelkader;Benouis, Sabrina
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.1643-1650
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    • 2013
  • A non linear QSAR model was constructed on a series of 57 xanthone and curcuminoide derivatives as ${\alpha}$-glucosidase inhibitors by back-propagation neural network method. The neural network architecture was optimized to obtain a three-layer neural network, composed of five descriptors, nine hidden neurons and one output neuron. A good predictive determination coefficient was obtained (${R^2}_{Pset}$ = 86.7%), the statistical results being better than those obtained with the same data set using a multiple regression analysis (MLR). As in the MLR model, the descriptor MATS7v weighted by Van der Waals volume was found as the most important independent variable on the ${\alpha}$-glucosidase inhibitory.

Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) between chlorinated alkene ELUMO and their chlorine

  • Tang, Walter Z.;Wang, Fang
    • Advances in environmental research
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    • v.1 no.4
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    • pp.257-276
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    • 2012
  • QSAR models for chlorinated alkenes were developed between $E_{HOMO}$ and their chlorine and carbon content. The aim is to provide valid QSAR model which is statistically validated for $E_{LUMO}$ prediction. Different molecular descriptors, $N_{Cl}$, $N_C$ and $E_{HOMO}$ have been used to take into account relevant information provided by molecular features and physicochemical properties. The best model were selected using Partial Least Square (PLS) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) led to models with satisfactory predictive ability for a data set of 15 chlorinated alkene compounds.

Bankruptcy predictions for Korea medium-sized firms using neural networks and case based reasoning

  • Han, Ingoo;Park, Cheolsoo;Kim, Chulhong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1996.10a
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    • pp.203-206
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    • 1996
  • Prediction of firm bankruptcy have been extensively studied in accounting, as all stockholders in a firm have a vested interest in monitoring its financial performance. The objective of this paper is to develop the hybrid models for bankruptcy prediction. The proposed hybrid models are two phase. Phase one are (a) DA-assisted neural network, (b) Logit-assisted neural network, and (c) Genetic-assisted neural network. And, phase two are (a) DA-assisted Case based reasoning, and (b) Genetic-assisted Case based reasoning. In the variables selection, We are focusing on three alternative methods - linear discriminant analysis, logit analysis and genetic algorithms - that can be used empirically select predictors for hybrid model in bankruptcy prediction. Empirical results using Korean medium-sized firms data show that hybrid models are very promising neural network models and case based reasoning for bankruptcy prediction in terms of predictive accuracy and adaptability.

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Harmonic Peak Picking-based MVF Estimation for Improvement of HMM-based Speech Synthesis System Using TBE Model (TBE 모델을 사용하는 HMM 기반 음성합성기 성능 향상을 위한 하모닉 선택에 기반한 MVF 예측 방법)

  • Park, Jihoon;Hahn, Minsoo
    • Phonetics and Speech Sciences
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.79-86
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    • 2012
  • In the two-band excitation (TBE) model, maximum voiced frequency (MVF) is the most important feature of the excitation parameter because the synthetic speech quality depends on MVF. Thus, this paper proposes an enhanced MVF estimation scheme based on the peak picking method. In the proposed scheme, the local peak and the peak lobe are picked from the spectrum of a linear predictive residual signal. The normalized distance between neighboring peak lobes is calculated and utilized as a feature to estimate MVF. Experimental results of both objective and subjective tests show that the proposed scheme improves synthetic speech quality compared with that of the conventional one.

New reliability framework for assessment of existing concrete bridge structures

  • Mahdi Ben Ftima;Bruno Massicotte;David Conciatori
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.89 no.4
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    • pp.399-409
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    • 2024
  • Assessment of existing concrete bridges is a challenge for owners. It has greater economic impact when compared to designing new bridges. When using conventional linear analyses, judgment of the engineer is required to understand the behavior of redundant structures after the first element in the structural system reaches its ultimate capacity. The alternative is to use a predictive tool such as advanced nonlinear finite element analyses (ANFEA) to assess the overall structural behavior. This paper proposes a new reliability framework for the assessment of existing bridge structures using ANFEA. A general framework defined in previous works, accounting for material uncertainties and concrete model performance, is adapted to the context of the assessment of existing bridges. A "shifted" reliability problem is defined under the assumption of quasi-deterministic dead load effects. The overall exercise is viewed as a progressive pushover analysis up to structural failure, where the actual safety index is compared at each event to a target reliability index.

Under-use of Radiotherapy in Stage III Bronchioaveolar Lung Cancer and Socio-economic Disparities in Cause Specific Survival: a Population Study

  • Cheung, Min Rex
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.9
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    • pp.4091-4094
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    • 2014
  • Background: This study used the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) to analyze Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) bronchioaveolar carcinoma data to identify predictive models and potential disparity in outcomes. Materials and Methods: Socio-economic, staging and treatment factors were assessed. For the risk modeling, each factor was fitted by a Generalized Linear Model to predict cause specific survival. The area under the ROC was computed. Similar strata were combined to construct the most parsimonious models. A random sampling algorithm was used to estimate modeling errors. Risk of cause specific death was computed for the predictors for comparison. Results: There were 7,309 patients included in this study. The mean follow up time (S.D.) was 24.2 (20) months. Female patients outnumbered male ones 3:2. The mean (S.D.) age was 70.1 (10.6) years. Stage was the most predictive factor of outcome (ROC area of 0.76). After optimization, several strata were fused, with a comparable ROC area of 0.75. There was a 4% additional risk of death associated with lower county family income, African American race, rural residency and lower than 25% county college graduate. Radiotherapy had not been used in 2/3 of patients with stage III disease. Conclusions: There are socio-economic disparities in cause specific survival. Under-use of radiotherapy may have contributed to poor outcome. Improving education, access and rates of radiotherapy use may improve outcome.

Prediction of compressive strength of concrete using multiple regression model

  • Chore, H.S.;Shelke, N.L.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.837-851
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    • 2013
  • In construction industry, strength is a primary criterion in selecting a concrete for a particular application. The concrete used for construction gains strength over a long period of time after pouring the concrete. The characteristic strength of concrete is defined as the compressive strength of a sample that has been aged for 28 days. Neither waiting for 28 days for such a test would serve the rapidity of construction, nor would neglecting it serve the quality control process on concrete in large construction sites. Therefore, rapid and reliable prediction of the strength of concrete would be of great significance. On this backdrop, the method is proposed to establish a predictive relationship between properties and proportions of ingredients of concrete, compaction factor, weight of concrete cubes and strength of concrete whereby the strength of concrete can be predicted at early age. Multiple regression analysis was carried out for predicting the compressive strength of concrete containing Portland Pozolana cement using statistical analysis for the concrete data obtained from the experimental work done in this study. The multiple linear regression models yielded fairly good correlation coefficient for the prediction of compressive strength for 7, 28 and 40 days curing. The results indicate that the proposed regression models are effectively capable of evaluating the compressive strength of the concrete containing Portaland Pozolana Cement. The derived formulas are very simple, straightforward and provide an effective analysis tool accessible to practicing engineers.

Predicting compressive strength of bended cement concrete with ANNs

  • Gazder, Uneb;Al-Amoudi, Omar Saeed Baghabara;Khan, Saad Muhammad Saad;Maslehuddin, Mohammad
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.627-634
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    • 2017
  • Predicting the compressive strength of concrete is important to assess the load-carrying capacity of a structure. However, the use of blended cements to accrue the technical, economic and environmental benefits has increased the complexity of prediction models. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been used for predicting the compressive strength of ordinary Portland cement concrete, i.e., concrete produced without the addition of supplementary cementing materials. In this study, models to predict the compressive strength of blended cement concrete prepared with a natural pozzolan were developed using regression models and single- and 2-phase learning ANNs. Back-propagation (BP), Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) and Conjugate Gradient Descent (CGD) methods were used for training the ANNs. A 2-phase learning algorithm is proposed for the first time in this study for predictive modeling of the compressive strength of blended cement concrete. The output of these predictive models indicates that the use of a 2-phase learning algorithm will provide better results than the linear regression model or the traditional single-phase ANN models.

A Study on Predicting Bankruptcy Discriminant Model for Small-Sized Venture Firms using Technology Evaluation Data (기술력평가 자료를 이용한 중소벤처기업 파산예측 판별모형에 관한 연구)

  • Sung Oong-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.304-324
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    • 2006
  • There were considerable researches by finance people trying to find out business ratios as predictors of corporate bankruptcy. However, such financial ratios usually lack theoretical justification to predict bankruptcy for technology-oriented small sized venture firms. This study proposes a bankruptcy predictive discriminant model using technology evaluation data instead of financial data, evaluates the model fit by the correct classification rate, cross-validation method and M-P-P method. The results indicate that linear discriminant model was found to be more appropriate model than the logistic discriminant model and 69% of original grouped data were correctly classified while 67% of future data were expected to be classified correctly.

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