• Title/Summary/Keyword: Life Span Estimation

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Estimation of Genetic Parameters from Longitudinal Records of Body Weight of Berkshire Pigs

  • Lee, Dong-Hee;Do, Chang-Hee
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.764-771
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    • 2012
  • Direct and maternal genetic heritabilities and their correlations with body weight at 5 stages in the life span of purebred Berkshire pigs, from birth to harvest, were estimated to scrutinize body weight development with the records for 5,088 purebred Berkshire pigs in a Korean farm, using the REML based on an animal model. Body weights were measured at birth (Birth), at weaning (Weaning: mean 22.9 d), at the beginning of a performance test (On: mean 72.7 d), at the end of a performance test (Off: mean 152.4 d), and at harvest (Finish: mean 174.3 d). Ordinary polynomials and Legendre with order 1, 2, and 3 were adopted to adjust body weight with age in the multivariate animal models. Legendre with order 3 fitted best concerning prediction error deviation (PED) and yielded the lowest AIC for multivariate analysis of longitudinal body weights. Direct genetic correlations between body weight at Birth and body weight at Weaning, On, Off, and Finish were 0.48, 0.36, 0.10, and 0.10, respectively. The estimated maternal genetic correlations of body weight at Finish with body weight at Birth, Weaning, On, and Off were 0.39, 0.49, 0.65, and 0.90, respectively. Direct genetic heritabilities progressively increased from birth to harvest and were 0.09, 0.11, 0.20, 0.31, and 0.43 for body weight at Birth, Weaning, On, Off, and Finish, respectively. Maternal genetic heritabilities generally decreased and were 0.26, 0.34, 0.15, 0.10, and 0.10 for body weight at Birth, Weaning, On, Off, and Finish, respectively. As pigs age, maternal genetic effects on growth are reduced and pigs begin to rely more on the expression of their own genes. Although maternal genetic effects on body weight may not be large, they are sustained through life.

Mechanical Properties Assessment of Steels Obtained from an Aged Naval Ship (노후 함정 강재의 기계적 특성 평가)

  • Sang-Hyun Park;Young-Sik Jang;Su-Min Lee;Sang-Rai Cho;Sang Su Jeon;Ju Young Hwang;Nam-Ki Baek
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.60 no.2
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    • pp.65-75
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    • 2023
  • Ships operated at sea for a long time are subjected to various kinds of loads, which may cause various types of damage. Such damages will eventually reduce the strength of hull structures. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate and evaluate the residual strength and remaining fatigue life of aging ships in order to secure structural safety, establish a reasonable maintenance plan, and make a judgment of life extension. For this purpose, the corrosion damage and local denting damage should be measured, fatigue damage estimation should be performed, and material properties of aged steel should be identified. For this study, in order to investigate the mechanical properties of aged steel, steel plates were obtained from a naval ship that reached the end of her life span. The specimens were manufactured from the obtained steel plates, and static and dynamic tensile tests, fatigue tests, and metallographic tests were performed. The mechanical properties obtained from the aged steel plates were compared with those of new steel plates to quantify the aging effect on the mechanical properties of marine steel materials.

A design approach of integral-abutment steel girder bridges for maintenance

  • Kim, WooSeok;Jeong, Yoseok;Lee, Jaeha
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.227-239
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    • 2018
  • Integral abutment bridges (IABs) have no joint across the length of bridge and are therefore also known as jointless bridges. IABs have many advantages, such as structural integrity, efficiency, and stability. More importantly, IABs have proven to be have both low maintenance and construction costs. However, due to the restraints at both ends of the girder due to the absence of a gap (joint), special design considerations are required. For example, while replacing the deck slabs to extend the service life of the IAB, the buckling strength of the steel girder without a deck slab could be much smaller than the case with deck slab in place. With no deck slab, the addition of thermal expansion in the steel girders generates passive earth pressure from the abutment and if the applied axial force is greater than the buckling strength of the steel girders, buckling failure can occur. In this study, numerical simulations were performed to estimate the buckling strength of typical steel girders in IABs. The effects of girder length, the width of flange and thickness of flange, imperfection due to fabrication and construction errors on the buckling strengths of multiple and single girders in IABs are studied. The effect of girder spacing, span length ratio (for a three span girder) and self-weight effects on the buckling strength are also studied. For estimation of the reaction force of the abutment generated by the passive earth pressure of the soil, BA 42/96 (2003), PennDOT DM4 (2015) and the LTI proposed equations (2009) were used and the results obtained are compared with the buckling strength of the steel girders. Using the selected design equations and the results obtained from the numerical analysis, equations for preventing the buckling failure of steel girders during deck replacement for maintenance are presented.

Estimation of the Life-span for Urban Rolling Stock through LCC Analysis (Focused on Seoul Metro) (LCC분석을 통한 도시철도 전동차의 경제적 사용내구년한 추정(서울메트로 사례를 중심으로))

  • Chung, Su Young;Lee, Won Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.508-516
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    • 2012
  • The lifespan of a rolling stock is limited to 25 years by the urban railway law. But it can be extended to 40 years by conducting the regular safety test. This gives additional 15 years of lifespan. In Seoul Metro, Many of the rolling stocks were already replaced with new types in 1996 and 2008. New type - VVVF rolling stocks have better safety, maintainability, durability than old types. For this reason, it is desirable to extend the lifespan of new type-rolling stocks. In this paper, we investigated the economical lifespan using LCC (Life Cycle Cost) analysis. This study shows that the economical lifespan comes out 41 years when extra 10% cost has been considered after 25 years of the train service and 46 years when extra 10% cost not considered.

Conclusions and Suggestions on Low-Dose and Low-Dose Rate Radiation Risk Estimation Methodology

  • Sakai, Kazuo;Yamada, Yutaka;Yoshida, Kazuo;Yoshinaga, Shinji;Sato, Kaoru;Ogata, Hiromitsu;Iwasaki, Toshiyasu;Kudo, Shin'ichi;Asada, Yasuki;Kawaguchi, Isao;Haeno, Hiroshi;Sasaki, Michiya
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.14-23
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    • 2021
  • Background: For radiological protection and control, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) provides the nominal risk coefficients related to radiation exposure, which can be extrapolated using the excess relative risk and excess absolute risk obtained from the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki with the dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF). Materials and Methods: Since it is impossible to directly estimate the radiation risk at doses less than approximately 100 mSv only from epidemiological knowledge and data, support from radiation biology is absolutely imperative, and thus, several national and international bodies have advocated the importance of bridging knowledge between biology and epidemiology. Because of the accident at the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)'s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in 2011, the exposure of the public to radiation has become a major concern and it was considered that the estimation of radiation risk should be more realistic to cope with the prevailing radiation exposure situation. Results and Discussion: To discuss the issues from wide aspects related to radiological protection, and to realize bridging knowledge between biology and epidemiology, we have established a research group to develop low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation risk estimation methodology, with the permission of the Japan Health Physics Society. Conclusion: The aim of the research group was to clarify the current situation and issues related to the risk estimation of low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation exposure from the viewpoints of different research fields, such as epidemiology, biology, modeling, and dosimetry, to identify a future strategy and roadmap to elucidate a more realistic estimation of risk against low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation exposure.

Estimating dose-response curves using splines: a nonparametric Bayesian knot selection method

  • Lee, Jiwon;Kim, Yongku;Kim, Young Min
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.287-299
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    • 2022
  • In radiation epidemiology, the excess relative risk (ERR) model is used to determine the dose-response relationship. In general, the dose-response relationship for the ERR model is assumed to be linear, linear-quadratic, linear-threshold, quadratic, and so on. However, since none of these functions dominate other functions for expressing the dose-response relationship, a Bayesian semiparametric method using splines has recently been proposed. Thus, we improve the Bayesian semiparametric method for the selection of the tuning parameters for splines as the number and location of knots using a Bayesian knot selection method. Equally spaced knots cannot capture the characteristic of radiation exposed dose distribution which is highly skewed in general. Therefore, we propose a nonparametric Bayesian knot selection method based on a Dirichlet process mixture model. Inference of the spline coefficients after obtaining the number and location of knots is performed in the Bayesian framework. We apply this approach to the life span study cohort data from the radiation effects research foundation in Japan, and the results illustrate that the proposed method provides competitive curve estimates for the dose-response curve and relatively stable credible intervals for the curve.

Stress History of a Bridge Estimated from Statistical Analysis of Traffic Bow (교통류의 통계적 해석으로부터 추정한 교량의 응력이력)

  • Yong, Hwan Sun;Choi, Kang Hee;Choi, Sung Kweon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 1989
  • The stress history of a bridge is different depending on the characteristic of traffic flow. Because the flow is varied with vehicle type, weight and headway time etc., statistical analysis in bridges is necessary to estimate the history by traffic flow. By applying the statistical analyses in fracture mechanics, the remaining service life of the structure can be estimated. In this paper, 1)the statistical analysis of vehicle type, weight and headway time etc. to analysis randomness of traffic flow, 2)measuring and analysis of stress history of a real bridge, 3)reappearance of stress history by Monte-Carlo Simulation using constitution ratio of vehicle type, weight and headway time as probabilitic variable, 4)comparision of the calculated and modelled stress history, 5)calculation of reduction factor, 6)comparision of frequency of stress range depending on span length etc. were performed. From the results, the basic modelled stress history which is necessary for the method of estimation of the remaining service life of the structure could be suggested.

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Anlysis of the Environmental Load Impact Factors for IPC Girder Bridge Using Principal Component Anlysis (주성분 분석을 활용한 IPC 거더교의 환경부하량 영향요인 분석)

  • Kim, Joon-Soo;Jeon, Jin-Gu;Kim, Byung-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.46-54
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    • 2018
  • In the 21st century, the Earth has continued its efforts to reduce carbon emissions to overcome the crisis caused by climate change. The construction industry, which is a representative industry that produces large amounts of the environmental load during construction, should actively reduce the amount of the environmental load. From the planning stage of the construction facility, it is necessary to consider the environmental load such as route selection and structure type selection to reduce the environmental load. However, the environmental load can be estimated based on the input resource amount. However, in the planning stage, it is difficult to accurately calculate the environmental load due to lack of information on the construction amount. The purpose of this study is to select the environmental load factors for IPC girder bridges to be used in the environmental load estimation model in the planning stage. Specific information related to the environmental load was selected from a list of information available in the planning stage, reflecting the Life Cycle Assessment(LCA), correlation, principal components analysis and expert opinion. The list of selected planning stage information is 10 such as span length and bridge extension, and it is expected to be used as a basic data for the future development of environmental load estimation model.

The Study on the Asymmetry of Inertia and Variety-Seeking State - Using Section-Aggregated Multinomial Logit Analysis (관성 및 다양성추구 상태의 비대칭성에 관한 연구 - 구간통합 다항로짓분석을 활용하여)

  • Lee, Seung-yon
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.73-94
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    • 2013
  • Customer's purchase state consists of purchase inertia and variety-seeking. As the growing brand familiarity triggers the increase of brand attractiveness, customers purchase state will be of inertia. However the excessively growing brand familiarity ignites the decrease of brand attractiveness. Followingly the purchase state will be tend to plunge into the variety-seeking state. The main topic of this study is to validate the asymmetric formation of customer's purchase states between inertia and variety-seeking. In order to follow up the main topic, this article introduces a model to freely describe the velocity of value changes depending upon the purchase states. This model will help overcome the limitation of the past studies having been based on the symmetric value changes. Based on this approach marketer will be able to decide the timing of sales promotions. This research utilized local telecommunication carrier's database of smartphone application purchase/download records. This database was collected from two years (2009 and 2010) span, the time when the smartphones started commodifying in Korea whilst most of the past studies had used purchase data of maturity stage products. From this approach utilizing the introduction stage data in the product life cycle, the probability of brand choice depending upon the purchase state on the early-stage can be probed. Moreover, this study tries to expand the research methodology from the other areas of research by knowledge sharing. Here this study introduces the methodology of section-aggregated multinomial logit to simultaneously estimate the parameters that were included in the plural multinomial logit functions while the plural functions were inter-connected. This adoption of section-aggregated multinomial logit model procedures from the computerized statistics areas is expected to nourish the marketing research for more precise analysis and estimation of effects of marketing activities.

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Relationship Analysis of Reference Evapotranspiration and Heating Load for Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Greenhouse (물-에너지-식량 넥서스 분석을 위한 시설재배지의 기준작물증발산량과 난방 에너지 부하 관계 분석)

  • Kim, Kwihoon;Yoon, Pureun;Lee, Yoonhee;Lee, Sang-Hyun;Hur, Seung-Oh;Choi, Jin-Yong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.61 no.4
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 2019
  • Increasing crop production with the same amount of resources is essential for enhancing the economy in agriculture. The first prerequisite is to understand relationships between the resources. The concept of WEF (Water-Energy-Food) nexus analysis was first introduced in 2011, which helps to interpret inter-linkages among the resources and stakeholders. The objective of this study was to analyze energy-water nexus in greenhouse cultivation by estimating reference evapotranspiration and heating load. For the estimation, this study used the physical model to simulate the inside temperature of the agricultural greenhouse using heating, solar radiation, ventilated and transferred heat losses as input variables. For estimating reference evapotranspiration and heating load, Penman-Monteith equation and seasonal heating load equation with HDH (Heating Degree-Hour) was applied. For calibration and validation of simulated inside temperature, used were hourly data observed from 2011 to 2012 in multi-span greenhouse. Results of the simulation were evaluated using $R^2$, MAE and RMSE, which showed 0.75, 2.22, 3.08 for calibration and 0.71, 2.39, 3.35 for validation respectively. When minimum setting temperature was $12^{\circ}C$ from 2013 to 2017, mean values of evapotranspiration and heating load were 687 mm/year and 2,147 GJ/year. For $18^{\circ}C$, Mean values of evapotranspiration and heating load were 707 mm/year and 5,616 GJ/year. From the estimation, the relationship between water and heat energy was estimated as 1.0~2.6 GJ/ton. Though additional calibrations with different types of greenhouses are necessary, the results of this study imply that they are applicable when evaluating resource relationship in the greenhouse cultivation complex.