• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2003년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.789-796
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• 2003

A reliability analysis is performed to investigate the influence of the uncertainty from the limited in-situ samples and the inherent heterogeneity of the ground on the probability of piping for the marine embankment near shore. The result are compared with those of the deterministic piping stability analysis performed using the fininte element flow analysis. The random variables used are hydraulic conductivity of the ground subsurface and embankment, and the water level of both internal and external side of the embankment. The probability of piping is most sensitive to the mean and standard deviation of internal water level of the embankment among the random variables included in the reliability analysis. It is found that the lower limits of internal water level which satisfies the allowable proability of piping failure for the embankment studied were E.L(-) 1.83m and E.L(-) 1.48m during and after the construction of the embankment, respectively.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.114-122
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• 1999

As the rapid growth of Industrial society, many enterprises are inclined to ppm management from the traditional$3\'{o}$ management method. Therefore it is need to extend process capability index for guarantee of quality assurance level to ppm unit. Thus, in this paper, using the probability of standard normal distribution from $ 3\'{o}; to; 6\'{o}$ which was developed by Song(1997), the capability index which is proposed considers the numbers of inspection facility and quality assurance level. Also, quality assurance level is determined by considering the precision of inspection when one and two sided specification limits are given for the probability which is out of the specification limit.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• 제20권12호
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• pp.2124-2135
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• 2006

In this paper, the reliability estimation of pipelines is performed by employing the probabilistic method, which accounts for the uncertainties in the load and resistance parameters of the limit state function. The FORM (first order reliability method) and the SORM (second order reliability method) are carried out to estimate the failure probability of pipeline utilizing the FAD (failure assessment diagram). And the reliability of pipeline is assessed by using this failure probability and analyzed in accordance with a target safety level. Furthermore, the MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) is used to verify the results of the FORM and the SORM. It is noted that the failure probability increases with the increase of dent depth, gouge depth, operating pressure, outside radius, and the decrease of wall thickness. It is found that the FORM utilizing the FAD is a useful and is an efficient method to estimate the failure probability in the reliability assessment of a pipeline. Furthermore, the pipeline safety assessment technique with the deterministic procedure utilizing the FAD only is turned out more conservative than those obtained by using the probability theory together with the FAD. The probabilistic method such as the FORM, the SORM and the MCS can be used by most plant designers regarding the operating condition and design parameters.

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.405-409
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• 2009

중요도추출법을 이용한 항만구조물의 신뢰성해석방법을 제시하였다. 몬테카를로모사법(Monte Carlo Simulation)을 이용하여 신뢰성해석을 수행할 때 전도파괴확률과 같이 매우 낮은 파괴확률을 가진 경우는 해석시간이 과다하게 소요되는 문제점이 있다. 항만구조물 신뢰성해석 시 나타나는 이러한 문제를 극복하기 위해 파괴면주위의 추출점을 이용하여 해석시간을 단축시킬 수 있는 중요도추출법을 적용하였다. 중요도추출법을 항만구조물에 적용한 경우 파괴확률이 매우 낮은 파괴모드에 대한 신뢰성해석을 효율적으로 수행할 수 있음을 보였다. 수치해석에서 케이슨 안벽의 신뢰성해석을 수행하였으며 파괴확률의 낮고 높음에 따른 중요도추출법의 효용성을 검증하였다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.57-66
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• 2008

The frequency analysis and the probability plot were applied to heavy metal contents of soils collected from the Goseong Cu mine area as a statistic method for the determination of the threshold value which was able to partition a population comprising largely dispersed heavy metal contents into the background and the anomalous populations. Almost all the heavy metal contents of soil showed a positively skewed distributions and their cumulative percentage frequencies plotted as a curved lines on logarithmic probability plot which represent a mixture of two or more overlapping populations. Total Cu, Pb and Cd data and extractable Cu and Pb data could be partitioned into background and anomalous populations by using the inflection in each curve. The others showed a normally distributed population or an largely overlapped populations. The threshold values obtained from replotted frequency distributions with the partitioned populations were Cu 400 mg/kg, Pb 450 mg/kg and Cd 3.5 mg/kg in total contents and Cu 40 mg/kg and Pb 12 mg/kg in extractable contents, respectively. The thresholds for total contents are much higher than the tolerable level of soil pollution proposed by Kloke(Cu 100 mg/kg, Pb 100 mg/kg, Cd 3 mg/kg), but those for extractable contents are not exceeded the worrying level of soil pollution proposed by Ministry of Environment(Cu 50 mg/kg, Pb 100 mg/kg). When the threshold values were used as the criteria of soil pollution in the study area, $9{\sim}19%$ of investigated soil population was in polluted level. The spatial distributions of heavy metal contents greater than threshold values showed that polluted soils with heavy metals are restricted within the mountain soils in the vicinity of abandoned mines.

• 한국초등수학교육학회지
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.391-414
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• 2017

본 연구에서는 초등학교 6학년 학생들이 교육과정에서 제시하는 확률과 통계에 대해 얼마나 이해하고 있는지 진단하고 통계적 소양과 어떻게 관련되는지에 대해 알아보았다. 그래서 통계적 소양의 이론적 틀을 분석하고, 교과서 내용과 연관되는 요소를 찾아보고 이를 바탕으로 확률과 통계의 내용에 대한 성취 정도와 통계적 소양을 측정하였다. 이를 통해 초등 6학년의 통계적 소양과 관련하여 우리나라 교육과정에서 보완해야 될 요소를 알아보았다.

• International Journal of Human Ecology
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.63-72
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• 2005

This paper considered the impact of changing the product liability rule from consumer to producer liability on product safety under asymmetric information. In particular, it has been attempted to remove several constraints on antecedent studies. The main results of the study are as follows: under the misperception of the risk on a product, consumers may underestimate the probability of product failure. In this case, the accident rate can be lowered under the producer's liability rule. However, even under the asymmetric information, a consumer's estimation on the probability may be converged with the expected risk level, which could be called the 'rational expectation.' In this situation the probability of product failure can be lowered under the strict liability with contributory negligence. Additionally, it is possible to reduce the probability of product failure when a legal rule that imposes liability on cheapest cost avoider is admitted.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제35권9호
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• pp.729-733
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• 2011

The maritime risk assessment is important not only to evaluate the safety level of the ports and waterways but also to reduce potential maritime accidents at sea in terms of the proactive measures of the maritime accidents. In this paper, the collision risk assessment in Mokpo waterways has been carried out based on the IALA recommended model, IWRAP. To evaluate the accident probabilities in Mokpo waterways, all data of vessels were collected from AIS and Radar observations data and the computer simulations were carried out. To assess the risk on the traffic, the scenario-base approach has been applied to the Mokpo waterway by using the maritime accident statics over the past 5 years.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제7권5호
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• pp.539-552
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• 2014

A simplified probability-based design charts for stone column-improved ground have been presented based on the unit cell approach. The undrained cohesion ($c_u$) and coefficient of radial consolidation ($c_r$) of the soft soil are taken as the most predominant random variables. The design charts are developed to estimate the diameter of the stone column or the spacing between the stone columns by employing a factored design value of $c_r$ and $c_u$ so as to satisfy a specific probability level of the target degree of consolidation and/or a target safe load that needs to be achieved in a specified timeframe. The design charts can be used by the practicing engineers to design the stone column-improved ground by considering consolidation and /or bearing capacity of the improved ground.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제10권5호
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• pp.507-521
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• 2012

The capacity design of shear forces is one of the special demands of EC8 by which the ductile behavior of structures is implemented. The aim of capacity design is the formation of plastic hinges without shear failure of the elements. This is achieved by deriving the design shear forces from equilibrium conditions, assuming that plastic hinges, with their possible over-strengths, have been formed in the adjacent joints of the elements. In this equilibrium situation, the parameters (dimensions, material properties, axial forces etc) are random variables. Therefore, the capacity design of shear forces is associated with a probability of non-compliance (probability of failure). In the present study the probability of non-compliance of the shear capacity design in columns is calculated by assuming the basic variables as random variables. Parameters affecting this probability are examined and a modification of the capacity design is proposed, in order to achieve uniformity of the safety level.