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Global Productivity and Market Structure Implications of the US-China Trade War: A CGE Modeling Approach

  • Jung, Jaewon
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.24 no.8
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    • pp.153-170
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - As the US-China trade war intensifies and lasts long time, there is growing concern about its potential effects on the global economy. In particular, for the countries like Korea that have a large economic dependence on the economy of the two countries, the US-China trade war may have a great repercussion in many ways. The aim of this paper is to investigate the global productivity and market structure implications of the US-China trade war for Korea, as well as for other surrounding countries and regions. Design/methodology - In this paper, we develop a full multi-country/region multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade incorporating heterogeneous workers and firms in individual skill levels and used technologies. We then calibrate the model using a global Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) dataset extracted from the recently released GTAP 10 Database, and assess the potential effects of the US-China trade war on the aggregate real productivity and the market structure for Korea, as well as for other surrounding countries and regions. Findings - We show that the US-China trade war may largely affect the aggregate productivity in each sector in each country/region, as well as the global market structure through entry and exit of firms, which results finally in considerable changes in the industrial comparative advantage of each country/region. Though the effects are diverse sector by sector, the results show that Korea may also be affected significantly: concerning the real productivity implications, it is shown that the machinery industry may be affected the most negatively; on the other hand, it is shown that the number of exporting firms may decrease the most in the other transports industry. Originality/value - As the US-China trade war intensifies, many studies have tried to estimate the possible implications, and for this usually the CGE models have largely been used as the standard tool for evaluating the impacts of changes in trade policies. Standard CGE models, however, cannot be used to assess the global productivity and market structure implications due to the symmetric and simplified base assumptions. This paper is the first to analyze and quantify the possible impacts of the US-China trade war on the aggregate productivity and global market structure using a CGE model incorporating endogenous skill-technology assignment of heterogeneous workers and firms.

The Effect of Startups' Trust in Government R&D Policies on Innovation Performance (벤처기업의 정부 R&D정책에 대한 신뢰가 혁신 성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Deokyong;Bae, Sung Joo
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.95-124
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    • 2021
  • Startups play an important role in economic growth and job creation in niche markets, thus governments regularly expand their research and development(R&D) budgets accordingly. As stratups are more dependent on governments to compensate for insufficient resources and capabilities than large and medium-sized companies, trust in government policies will be important. In this study, we analyzed the impact of startups' trust in government R&D policies on innovation performance. There were three major results. The first result is that government R&D investments in startups increase innovation performance in the manufacturing and high-technology industries but did not affect other industries. The second result is that trust in government R&D policies increased innovation in high-and medium-high technology and manufacturing industries. The third result is that trust in government R&D policies affects innovation before, during, and after evaluation of support process. We analyzed the importance of trust to the effectiveness of government R&D support to determine how to effectively provide it. The results show that governments need to differentiate the types of R&D support they provide according to the target firm's technology level and whether they are a manufacturing company and that appropriate R&D support mechanism should be developed for low-technology and non-manufacturing companies. Finally, governments should allocate resources and make fair and transparent decisions to help companies grow, not to better supervise them.

The history of ginseng cultivation in Orient (동양에 있어서의 인삼재배 역사)

  • Koh, Seungtae
    • Journal of Ginseng Culture
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    • v.1
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2019
  • Ginseng has been recognized as a lifespan extending medicine which has been regarded as one of the medicines classified as top medicines, as the Boncho (medical herbs) study which is influenced by the idea of guidance's costume and food concept mainly in China is gaining its bona fide form. As the demand for ginseng has been expanded to other levels, the demand for ginseng has been increasing. Ginseng from the nature reached its supply chain limit due to its extinction and difficulty of picking, so it translated into ginseng cultivation of economy rather than harvesting in nature. After the start of ginseng cultivation, the ginseng cultivation was further enhanced by the rapid development of processing methods such as white-ginseng and red-ginseng, and the surge of consumption due to the traditional belief in ginseng drug efficacy and support of scientific research. In the Joseon Dynasty, the name Gasam (cultivated ginseng) had been created as ginseng was cultivated on farmland after the stage of SanYang (wild cultivated ginseng), the purpose of the new name Gasam is to differentiate from natural ginseng, and natural ginseng lost its firm position as the genuine ginseng as the Gasam replaced the genuine ginseng, and the natural ginseng got a new name of SanSam (wild ginseng). Because the real ginseng substance concept dissipated, and as Gasam is being called ginseng, the name Gasam was also disappeared. As a result, it was possible to grow large quantities according to the arrival of the Gasam era, and it was possible to supply the demand for ginseng, and it could become one agricultural industry. In this ginseng cultivation, in Japan where ginseng did not grow naturally, it was difficult to obtain ginseng from Joseon and faced with a shortage of ginseng at all times. Therefore, the shogun cultivated the Gasam systematically at the national level by the inside of the shogunate. However, since the natural ginseng is native to China and Korea, there is a concern about the deterioration of the quality of natural ginseng due to the incorporation of cultivated ginseng (Gasam). To protect the interests, the cultivation of ginseng was subject to control. For this reason, the lack of historical information on Gasam cultivation, which had to be started secretly, would be a natural result. In this paper, althouh not sufficient enough, the historical informations were used to summarize the history of ginseng cultivation in China, Japan and Korea.

A Study on Strategic Alliances between Terrestrial Broadcasters and Content Start-ups with a Focus on KBS LABS (지상파방송사와 콘텐츠 스타트업의 전략적 제휴에 관한 연구: 'KBS LABS'를 중심으로)

  • Park, Hee Bong
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.644-657
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    • 2019
  • This study examines the types of strategic alliances formed between terrestrial broadcasters and content start-ups, their resource inter-dependence and the dynamic evolution of their relationship through a case study of KBS Labs, a strategic alliance between KBS and content start-ups. Mergers, acquisitions and strategic alliances sought by large media companies or strategic alliances made only between disparate providers in broadcasting and telecommunications industries are now actively pursued by traditional media and start-ups. The alliances between traditional media and start-ups are beneficial to both parties: traditional media can quickly implement start-ups' innovative ideas and business models and start-ups can tap into not only vast amounts of content being created by or in the archives of traditional media but also their capital, office space and reputation. Therefore, the case study of KBS Labs will help draw out important implications for motivating strategic alliances between traditional media and start-ups. To this end, the resource-based view and the evolutionary theory of the firm are adopted to explore the characteristics and development process of the KBS Labs business.

Further Empirical Analysis on Corporate R&D Intensity for KOSDAQ Listed SMEs in the Era of the Post Global Economic Crisis (국제금융위기 이후의 코스닥 상장 중소기업들의 연구개발비에 대한 실증적 심층분석)

  • Kim, Hanjoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.248-258
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    • 2021
  • The study analyzed the financial determinants of corporate R&D intensity that require more attention from academics and practitioners in the Korean capital market. Domestic small and medium enterprises (SMEs) may face with developing substitutes by making more R&D investments in scale and scope, given the unprecedented economic conditions such as the limitation of importing core components and materials from other nation(s). KOSDAQ-listed SMEs were selected as sample data, whose R&D expenditures may be less than those of large firms during the post-global financial turmoil period (2010~2018). Static panel data model was applied, along with Tobit and stepwise regression models, for examining the validity of results. Logit, probit, and complementary log-log regressions were also employed for a relative analysis. R&D expenditures in the prior year, the interaction effect between the previous R&D intensity and high-tech sector, firm size, and growth rate were significant to determine R&D intensity. Moreover, a majority of explanatory variables were found to change between the years 2011 and 2018, while time-lagged effects between the R&D intensity and growth rate exist. Results of the study are expected to be used for future research to detect optimal levels of R&D expenditures for the value maximization of SMEs.

Numerical Evaluation of Geosynthetic Reinforced Column Supported Embankments (개량체 기둥지지 성토공법의 지오그리드 보강효과에 대한 수치해석)

  • Jung, Duhwoe;Jeong, Sidong
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2021
  • Pile or column supported embankments have been increasingly employed to construct highway or railway embankments over soft soils. Piles or columns of stiffer material installed in the soft ground can provide the necessary support by transferring the embankment load to a firm stratum using a soil arching. However, there has been reported to occur a relatively large differential settlement between the piles and the untreated soils. Geosynthetic reinforced pile or column supported embankment (GRPS) is often used to minimize the differential settlement. Two dimensional finite element anlyses have been performed on both the column supported embankments and the geogrid reinforced column supported embankments by using a PLAXIS 2D to evaluate the soil arching effect. Based on the results obtained from finite element analyses, the stress reduction ratio decreases as the area replacement ratio increases in the column supported embankments. For the geogrid reinforced column supported embankments, the geogrid reinforcemnt can reduce differential settlements effectively. In additon, the use of stiffer geogrid is appeared to be more effective in reducing the differential settlements.

The Earnings Quality and Firm Characteristics - KOSDAQ (기업특성에 따른 회계이익의 질 - 코스닥기업 대상)

  • Moon, Hyun-Ju
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.123-146
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    • 2020
  • This study, targeting KOSDAQ-listed companies, examined the relationship between variability of accruals and corporate characteristics. First, the analysis results show that executives of companies with high debt ratios are more likely to violate debt contracts, so there is a strong temptation to use discretionary accrual items. Second, for companies with large volatility in operating cash flows, Executives of these companies are strongly inclined to utilize accruals for the purpose of abuse of discretion. Third, the larger the company, the more sensitive it is to political costs, so it is less tempted to use the accruals item than a smaller company. Fourth, the corporate age is thought to be the maturity of the company, Executives of such companies have little room to use accruals to abuse their discretion. Fifth, in the case of profit dummy variables, the companies reporting losses have more temporary accrual items than those reporting profits, so this increases the uncertainty in their accounting information than the latter. Sixth, for those companies that are indicated as inappropriate as a result of audit, the more likely their executives are to use the accrual items, and the lower the quality of their accounting profits is. Lastly, Companies audited by 4 Big domestic accounting firms have less discretionary accrual fluctuations than companies audited by non-big 4 accounting firms. Thus, it was found that the accrual amount allows the discretion of corporate executives differently according to the characteristics of the company.

Determinants of Productivity Change in Export Manufacturing Firms : Focusing on Innovation (수출제조기업의 생산성변화에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석 : 혁신활동을 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Kyung-Yun;Koo, Jong-Soon;Hwang, Jung-Hyun
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.61-90
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to identify the sources of productivity change in export manufacturing firms. After estimating the Malmquist productivity index, a panel regression was used to calculate the source of productivity change. Upon conducting a literature review of this field, six variables were selected as explanatory variables. The results of an analysis of 355 export manufacturing firms operating from 2009 through 2015 are as follows: First, both innovation activity and total assets had a positive impact on productivity change. However, employment cost intensity, equity ratio, and current ratio had a negative impact on productivity change in export manufacturing firms. Second, innovation activity and intangible assets had a positive impact on productivity change, but employment cost intensity, selling expense intensity, and equity ratio had a negative impact on productivity change in large export manufacturing firms. Third, innovation activity had a positive impact on productivity change, but employment cost intensity and equity ratio had a negative impact on productivity change in small and medium export manufacturing firms. Fourth, intangible assets had a positive impact on productivity change, but employment cost intensity, selling expense intensity, and current ratio had a negative impact on productivity change in export manufacturing firms listed on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index. Fifth, innovation activity and total assets had a positive impact on productivity change, but employment cost intensity and equity ratio had a negative impact on productivity change in manufacturing firms listed on the Korean Securities Dealers Automated Quotations. The managerial implications of this study are also discussed.

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A Study on Antecedence Factors and Supply Chain Capability for Improving Supply Chain Sustainability (공급사슬 지속가능성 제고를 위한 선행요인들과 공급사슬 역량에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Chan-Kwon;Park, Sung-Min;Kim, Chae Bogk
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.25-52
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between supply chain sustainability antecedent, supply chain competence, and supply chain sustainability. The relationship between supply chain sustainability antecedence factor and supply chain competence, supply chain competence and supply chain sustainability and to identify the differences between sustainability antecedence factors, capacity and sustainability depending on the size of the firm. To accomplish this, each research hypothesis was established and the results are as follows. First, compliance with environmental regulations, NGO response activities, CSR activities, and trade fairness were found to have a significant positive impact on manufacturing agility, environmental management, and social capital. And manufacturing agility, environmental management, and social capital has been confirmed that most of the economic, environmental and social sustainability have a significant positive influence. In addition, it has been confirmed that there are differences in the factors of supply chain sustainability, capacity, and sustainability depending on the size of the company. According to the results of the study, environmental regulation compliance, NGO response activities, CSR activities, and fairness factors selected as the leading factors of supply chain sustainability play a role as fundamental prerequisites for supply chain competence to achieve sustainability. Manufacturing agility, environmental management, and the formation of social capital have confirmed that they can raise the level of economic, environmental and social sustainability. Therefore, it was confirmed that the enhancement of supply chain sustainability precedence factors can lead to enhancement of supply chain competence, and furthermore, sustainability of supply chain. Compared with large corporations, SMEs' supply chain sustainability precedence factor, capacity and sustainability should be further improved.

Successful Technology Investment Strategy in Manufacturing Industry: Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) Approach (제조업에서의 성공적인 기술투자 전략에 대한 연구: 퍼지셋 질적비교분석)

  • Yunmo Koo;Juyeon Ham;Jae-Nam Lee
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2017
  • Despite high uncertainty on financial return, firms have continuously increased their investment on technologies because they recognize the potential value of technology investment in terms of enhancing operational efficiency and sustaining competitive advantage. Notably, an individual technology investment pattern or strategy within an industry may ultimately lead to significant differences in business performance. Hence, we first categorized technology investment into traditional research and development investment and information technology investment. Afterward, we examined the effects of each pattern with combination of the two types of technology investment on business performance according to firm size and position in the supply chain through fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis. Data collected from 562 manufacturing firms in Korea were used in the analysis. Results showed that large-sized firms were slightly affected with microscopic patterns in their technology investments, whereas small firms were highly affected with their technology investment patterns and their positions in the supply chain. The findings implied that a small enterprise requires an appropriate technology investment strategy to achieve successful business outcomes.