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A Case Study on Forecasting Inbound Calls of Motor Insurance Company Using Interactive Data Mining Technique (대화식 데이터 마이닝 기법을 활용한 자동차 보험사의 인입 콜량 예측 사례)

  • Baek, Woong;Kim, Nam-Gyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.99-120
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    • 2010
  • Due to the wide spread of customers' frequent access of non face-to-face services, there have been many attempts to improve customer satisfaction using huge amounts of data accumulated throughnon face-to-face channels. Usually, a call center is regarded to be one of the most representative non-faced channels. Therefore, it is important that a call center has enough agents to offer high level customer satisfaction. However, managing too many agents would increase the operational costs of a call center by increasing labor costs. Therefore, predicting and calculating the appropriate size of human resources of a call center is one of the most critical success factors of call center management. For this reason, most call centers are currently establishing a department of WFM(Work Force Management) to estimate the appropriate number of agents and to direct much effort to predict the volume of inbound calls. In real world applications, inbound call prediction is usually performed based on the intuition and experience of a domain expert. In other words, a domain expert usually predicts the volume of calls by calculating the average call of some periods and adjusting the average according tohis/her subjective estimation. However, this kind of approach has radical limitations in that the result of prediction might be strongly affected by the expert's personal experience and competence. It is often the case that a domain expert may predict inbound calls quite differently from anotherif the two experts have mutually different opinions on selecting influential variables and priorities among the variables. Moreover, it is almost impossible to logically clarify the process of expert's subjective prediction. Currently, to overcome the limitations of subjective call prediction, most call centers are adopting a WFMS(Workforce Management System) package in which expert's best practices are systemized. With WFMS, a user can predict the volume of calls by calculating the average call of each day of the week, excluding some eventful days. However, WFMS costs too much capital during the early stage of system establishment. Moreover, it is hard to reflect new information ontothe system when some factors affecting the amount of calls have been changed. In this paper, we attempt to devise a new model for predicting inbound calls that is not only based on theoretical background but also easily applicable to real world applications. Our model was mainly developed by the interactive decision tree technique, one of the most popular techniques in data mining. Therefore, we expect that our model can predict inbound calls automatically based on historical data, and it can utilize expert's domain knowledge during the process of tree construction. To analyze the accuracy of our model, we performed intensive experiments on a real case of one of the largest car insurance companies in Korea. In the case study, the prediction accuracy of the devised two models and traditional WFMS are analyzed with respect to the various error rates allowable. The experiments reveal that our data mining-based two models outperform WFMS in terms of predicting the amount of accident calls and fault calls in most experimental situations examined.

Product Recommender Systems using Multi-Model Ensemble Techniques (다중모형조합기법을 이용한 상품추천시스템)

  • Lee, Yeonjeong;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.39-54
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    • 2013
  • Recent explosive increase of electronic commerce provides many advantageous purchase opportunities to customers. In this situation, customers who do not have enough knowledge about their purchases, may accept product recommendations. Product recommender systems automatically reflect user's preference and provide recommendation list to the users. Thus, product recommender system in online shopping store has been known as one of the most popular tools for one-to-one marketing. However, recommender systems which do not properly reflect user's preference cause user's disappointment and waste of time. In this study, we propose a novel recommender system which uses data mining and multi-model ensemble techniques to enhance the recommendation performance through reflecting the precise user's preference. The research data is collected from the real-world online shopping store, which deals products from famous art galleries and museums in Korea. The data initially contain 5759 transaction data, but finally remain 3167 transaction data after deletion of null data. In this study, we transform the categorical variables into dummy variables and exclude outlier data. The proposed model consists of two steps. The first step predicts customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in the online shopping store. In this step, we first use logistic regression, decision trees, and artificial neural networks to predict customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group. We perform above data mining techniques using SAS E-Miner software. In this study, we partition datasets into two sets as modeling and validation sets for the logistic regression and decision trees. We also partition datasets into three sets as training, test, and validation sets for the artificial neural network model. The validation dataset is equal for the all experiments. Then we composite the results of each predictor using the multi-model ensemble techniques such as bagging and bumping. Bagging is the abbreviation of "Bootstrap Aggregation" and it composite outputs from several machine learning techniques for raising the performance and stability of prediction or classification. This technique is special form of the averaging method. Bumping is the abbreviation of "Bootstrap Umbrella of Model Parameter," and it only considers the model which has the lowest error value. The results show that bumping outperforms bagging and the other predictors except for "Poster" product group. For the "Poster" product group, artificial neural network model performs better than the other models. In the second step, we use the market basket analysis to extract association rules for co-purchased products. We can extract thirty one association rules according to values of Lift, Support, and Confidence measure. We set the minimum transaction frequency to support associations as 5%, maximum number of items in an association as 4, and minimum confidence for rule generation as 10%. This study also excludes the extracted association rules below 1 of lift value. We finally get fifteen association rules by excluding duplicate rules. Among the fifteen association rules, eleven rules contain association between products in "Office Supplies" product group, one rules include the association between "Office Supplies" and "Fashion" product groups, and other three rules contain association between "Office Supplies" and "Home Decoration" product groups. Finally, the proposed product recommender systems provides list of recommendations to the proper customers. We test the usability of the proposed system by using prototype and real-world transaction and profile data. For this end, we construct the prototype system by using the ASP, Java Script and Microsoft Access. In addition, we survey about user satisfaction for the recommended product list from the proposed system and the randomly selected product lists. The participants for the survey are 173 persons who use MSN Messenger, Daum Caf$\acute{e}$, and P2P services. We evaluate the user satisfaction using five-scale Likert measure. This study also performs "Paired Sample T-test" for the results of the survey. The results show that the proposed model outperforms the random selection model with 1% statistical significance level. It means that the users satisfied the recommended product list significantly. The results also show that the proposed system may be useful in real-world online shopping store.

A Study of Industrial Patients from Selected General in the Kyung Pook and Taegu City areas (일부지역 산업재해환자 실태 조사 연구 -대구${\cdot}$경북지역 일부 종합병원 중심으로-)

  • Huh, Choon-Bok
    • The Journal of Korean Physical Therapy
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.151-174
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    • 1991
  • The purpose of this study is to research the actual conditions of industrial accident patients and to produce worker satisfaction and a rational and effective counter measure plan. Direct interviews with 179 cases (in and out patients) were carried out during a three month period from April to July 1990, at six hospitals : two general hospitals Sun Lin and Sung Mo in Po Hang, and four general hospitals in Taegu : Kyung pooh University Hospital, Dong San Medical Center, Young Nam Medical Center and Catholic Hospital. The results of this study are summarized as fellows : 1. Among the 179 cases, $51.6\%$ were male and $48.4\%$ were female. The two largest age groups were 30-39, $31.8\%$ and 20-29, $27.4\%$. Among the 179 cases, $51.6\%$ were married, the largest family number was 2 to 3, $41.1\%$ and 4 to 5, $25.6\%$. Educationally, graduation from high school was the largest group, $46.4\%$ among ,the patients, followed by middle school and primary school. The largest group income level was from 40-69 만원, $45.2\%$. The largest group of patients who worked over 50 hrs. a week was $52.0\%$. The largest group of patients who worked less than 1 year was $44.7\%$, of the patients in work places of less than 100 people, $60.3\%$ were injured and in work places of 100-299 people, $20.1\%$ were injured. In manufacturing, the largest group injured was $55.3\%$, the next group was transport, storage, communication. The largest group of production workers injured was $40.2\%$. 2. The cause of injury in the largest group was facility problems, $33.5\%$. The next group was unsafe habits, $30.2\%$ ; a lack of safety knowledge, $17.9\%$ ; and insufficient supervision, $12.3\%$. The 30-39 year age group head the highest number of injuries, $40.4\%$ ; work places with more than 10 years of work, $44.4\%$ ; work places with more than 1000 people, $56.3\%$ and mining accidents, $80.0\%$. Among. these groups the highest cause of injury was due to facility problems. 3. The accident pattern showed machinery injuries $28.5\%$ as the largest group, followed by falls & falling objects $17.3\%$, fire & electric $15.1\%$, strucke by an object $14.5\%$, followed by overaction and vehicular accidents. The accident pattern showed $46.4\%$ among workers over the 50 year age group, workers in the 5-10 year group, $50.0\%$ ; places employing more than 1000 workers, $35.3\%$ ; construction $73.7\%$, and construction workers $57.1\%$, among these fall & falling objects caused the greatest number of injuries. 4. The largest group of injuries was fractures $54.8\%$, trauma $14.5\%$, amputation $11.7\%$, open wound, and burns. The largest number of fractures occurred in people in the 30-39 year age group, $63.2\%$ : over 10 years of work, $55.0\%$ ; in work places of 300-490 people, $63.6\%$ ; construction $63.2\%$ and general workers $57.2\%$. 5. The largest group of injuries was upper extremity $45.3\%$, lower extremity $24.0\%$, trunk $18.5\%$ and head or neck $12.2\%$. Of these groups, upper extremity injuries were the highest in those less than 20 years old $75.0\%$, less than 1 year or work $59.5\%$, in work places of 500-999 people $60.0\%$, manufacturing $56.6\%$ and production workers $55.6\%$. 6. Periods of injury showed 34 people injured in September, to be the largest followed by October, 32 ; August, 22 people : July, 19 people and the lowest December, 2 people. During the week, Friday had the largest group injured, 35 people ; followed by Saturday, 26 people and the lowest was Wednesday, 17 people, During the day 1400 hours had the largest group injured, 38 people ; followed by 800 hours, 31 people. 7. On a basis of 5 as the highest mark, the average, according to worker satisfaction showed facility safety 3.55, work environment 3.47, income 3.44, job 3.21 and treatment 2.98. 8. The correlation between general characteristics and injury showed that age was directly correlated to the duration of work (r=2591) p<0.01, age was directly correlated to industry (r=2311) p<0.01, and the duration was directly correlated to occupation (r=4372) p<0.001.

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Incidence of Escherichia coli and Its Susceptibility to Antimicrobials in Childhood Urinary Tract Infection (소아 요로감염에서 Escherichia coli의 빈도와 항생제 감수성에 대한 연구)

  • Chi Hye-Mi;Kwahk Jae-Hyok;Lee Jun-Ho;Park Hye-Won
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.18-26
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    • 2006
  • Purpose : Empirical antimicrobial treatment is indicated before bacteriological results are available for young children with febrile UTI to minimize renal scarring. To ensure appropriate therapy, knowledge of the prevalence of causative organisms and their susceptibility patterns to antimicrobials is mandatory. We performed a retrospective analysis investigating the local prevalence and resistance patterns of uropathogens, primarily E. coli, isolated from community-acquired UTIs. Methods : A total of 103 positive urine cultures from children with febrile UTI collected at Bundang CHA General Hospital from February 2004 to February 2005 were analyzed. Inclusion criteria were fever higher than $37.5^{\circ}C$, significant bacteriuria with single strain growth of at least 10s colony forming units/mL urine, and leukocyturia >5/HPF. Results : E. coli(89.3%) was the leading uropathogen followed by Enterococcus spp.(3.9%) Klebsiella spp.(2.9%), Citrobctcter spp.(1.9%) and Enterobacter spp.(1.9%). E. coli strains revealed a low proportion of antimicrobial susceptibility to ampicillin(AMP; 27.2%) ampicillinsulbactam(AMS; 34.8%) and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole(SXT; 65.2%). Susceptibility patterns to cephalosporins were as follows; cefazolin(1st generation; 91.3%), cefoxitin(2nd; 100%), ceftriaxone(3rd; 97.8%) and cefepime(4th; 97.8%). Three E. coli isolates produced ex tended - spectrum beta-lactamase(ESBL). Conclusion : Empirical treatment with AMP, AMS and SXT, which are commonly used in pediatric clinics, is not recommended for childhood UTI due to high incidence of resistance. The high level of susceptibility to cephalosporins makes these drugs reasonable alternatives. However the emergence of ESBL-producers, even though they are quite few, may have an impact on cephalosporin treatment in the future. (J Korean Soc Pediatr Nephrol 2006;10:18-26)

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Chronic pain control in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (만성통증 환자의 통증 조절)

  • Eun, Young
    • Journal of muscle and joint health
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.17-40
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    • 1995
  • Rheumatoid arthritis is the one of the chronic diseases, one of its major symptoms is a chronic pain. Despite developing medical treatment and surgical techniques, it is suggested that to control the pain is the goal of the treatment. But pain is an inner experience and even those closest to the patient cannot truly observe its progress or share in its suffering. The National Academy of Sciences Institute of Medicine's report on Pain and Disability concluded that there is no objective measure of pain-(exactly) no pain thermometer-nor can there ever be one, because the experience of pain is inseparable from personal perception and social influence such as culture. To explore chronic pain experience is to understand the process and property of the patient's perception of pain through the response to pain, the coping with pain, and the adaptation to pain. Therefore a qualitative study was conducted in order to gain an understanding of pain experience of patients with RA in korea. I used naturalistic inquiry as a research methodology, which had 5 axioms, the first is that realities are multiple, constructed, and holistic, the second is that knower and known are interactive, inseparable, the third is only time and context bound working hypotheses(idiographic statements) are possible, the forth is all entities are in a state of mutual simultaneous shaping, so that it is impossible to distinguish causes from effects and the last is that inquiry is value-bound. Purposive sampling was conducted as a sampling. 20 subjects who experienced pain over 10 years, lived in middle-sized city and big city in Korea, and 17 women and 3 men. The subject's age was from 32 to 62 (average 48.8), all were married, living with their spouse and children, except two-one divorced and the other widow before they became ill. I collected data using In depth structured interview. I had interviews two or three times with each subject, and the interviews were conducted at each subject's home. Each interview lasted about two hours an average. A recording was taken with the consent of the subject. I used inductive data analysis-such as unitizing and categorizing. unitizing is a process of coding, whereby raw data are systematically transformed and aggregated into units. Categorizing is a process wherby previously unitized data are organized into categories that provide descriptive or inferential information about the context or setting from which the units were derived. This process is used constant comparative method. The pain controlling process is composed of behavior of pain control. The behaviors of pain control are rearranging of ADL, hiddening role conflict, balancing treatment, and changing social relation. Rearranging of ADL includes diet management, sleep management, and the adjustment of daily life activities. The subjects try to rearrange their daily activities by modified style of motions, rearranging time span & range of activities, using auxillary facilities, and getting help in order to keep on the pace of daily life. Hiddening role conflict means to reduce conflicts between sick role and their role as a family member. In this process, the subjects use two modes, one is to control the pain complaints, and the other is to internalize the value which is to stay home is good for caring her children and being a good mother. To control pain complaints is done by 'enduring', 'understanding' the other family members, or making them undersood in order to reduce pain. Balancing treatment is composed of two aspects. One is to keep the pain within the endurable level, the other is to keep in touch with medical personnel in order to get the information of treatment and emotional support. Changing social relation is made by information seeking and sharing, formation of mutual support relation, and finally simplification of social relationships. The subjects simplify their social relationships by refraining from relations with someone who makes them physically and psychologically strained. In particular the subjects are apt to avoid contact with in-laws, and the change of relation to in-laws results in lessening the family boundary. In the course of this process, they confront the crisis of family confict result in family dissolution. This crisis is related to the threat of self-existence. Findings from this study contribute to understanding the chronic pain experience. To advance this study, we should compare this result with other cases in different cultural contexts. I think to interpret these results, korean cultural background should be considered. Especially the different family concept, more broader family members and kinship network, and the traditional medical knowledge influences patients' behavior.

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Analysis of comparisons of eating-out, dietary lifestyles, and healthy dietary competencies among middle-aged consumers according to obesity status and gender for implications of consumer education (소비자교육을 위한 중년기 소비자의 성별, 비만도별 외식 행동, 식생활 라이프스타일 및 건강한 식생활역량의 차이 분석)

  • Park, Jong Ok
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.60-72
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine differences in eating-out, dietary life styles, and healthy dietary competencies among middle-aged consumers according to obesity status and gender for implications of consumer education. Methods: Data were drawn from the 2016 Food Consumption Behavior Survey, and 3,022 subjects (mail 1,388; female 1,634) who were middle-aged adults were investigated. Analysis of variance with $Scheff\acute{e}$ test, t-test, $x^2$-test, and factor analysis were performed using SPSS v.24. Results: Males showed less interest in diet than females. For both males and females, higher BMI degrees were associated with higher levels of interest in diet. For frequency, monthly average consumption expenditure, one-time cost for eating out, and drinking frequency, males showed higher levels than females. Especially for the male group, higher obesity status was associated with higher levels of eating out and drinking. Dietary lifestyles of males and females turned out to be very similar. For the male group, normal weight group was more likely to show 'health and high quality pursuit dietary life-style' than the other groups. For females, the normal weight group were more likely to show 'health and high quality pursuit dietary life-style' and 'safety pursuit dietary life-style' than the other groups. The level of 'healthy dietary competence' for females was found to be higher than that for males. For the female group, there were significant differences according to obesity status, and practice was more important than knowledge in determining a healthy dietary life. Conclusion: For dietary life-related education for obese middle-aged consumers, it is important to emphasize less eating-out and drinking and less overeating while eating-out based on the results that eating-out, drinking, and overeating in the obesity group were significantly higher than in the normal group. It is important to focus on the value of dietary life and diverse foods, based on the results that the obesity group was less likely to be have healthy dietary lifestyles and consume less diverse foods than the normal group.

A Study of Dietary Intake and Vitamin/Mineral Supplement Usage among Adolescents (청소년의 식이섭취와 비타민.무기질 보충제 복용에 관한 연구)

  • 박은숙
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.30-40
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    • 1995
  • The relationship between dietary intake and vitamin/mineral supplement usage was examined in 706 adolescent girls who were high school students. 43.8% of subjects used vitamin/mineral supplements during one year. The higher the family income and parents education level, the higher percentage of vitamin/mineral supplement usage was. But there was no significant difference between grades and scores. And vitamin/mineral supplement usage was higher int he thin and obese groups than the average weight groups. Nutrition knowledge and food habit did not affect vitamin/mineral supplement usage. Calorie intakes of vitamin/mineral supplement users and nonusers were similar. However, independent of the supplements, the diets of supplement nonusers contained significantly more dietary protein, vitamin A, vitamin $B_2$, niacin, vitamin C, and calcium than the diets of the users. A considerable portion of both the users and nonusers had dietary intakes of less than 2/3 of the Recommended Dietary Allowances for vitamin $B_1$, vitamin $B_2$, niacin, calcium, and iron. Vitamin/mineral supplement nonusers generally consumed a more vitamin, mineral from diet. Reasons for taking supplements were to take energy, advice and illness.

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Educational Reforms under the Bologna Process in Former Socialist Countries: An analysis of educational policy transfer (체제 변환기 러시아 및 동구권 국가들의 교육 개혁이 정책 전이 논쟁에 주는 시사점: 볼로냐 프로세스를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sun
    • Korean Journal of Comparative Education
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.145-169
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the influences of educational policy transfer on transitional countries by analyzing the impacts of the Bologna Process on the educational systems of former socialist countries in Europe including Russia, Ukraine, and Hungary. For this purpose, documents published by European Union and its associated educational institutions, as well as academic institutions and scholars were analyzed to evaluate the changes made not only in the systemic level but also institutional and personal levels. The Bologna Process, instigated by the rise of knowledge economy and globalization, is purported to be the most influential educational reform conducted by the member countries since the formation of EU. However, unlike its original intentions to promote the voluntary participation of universities and students, the Bologna Process strengthened the structure of centralized bureaucracy in the educational systems, and restricted the freedom of professors, since most of the universities in these countries relied on governments for their funding. This indicates that in analyzing the influences of educational policy transfer in transitional countries, it is important to analyze the roles and motivations of actors participating in the decision-making processes. Moreover, Bologna Process reforms, made under the direction and control of government, were often turned into cases in which administrators hurriedly implement new policies against the will of faculty members and students, thus impeding the efficient localization of the reforms. This case, thus, implies that while educational reforms driven by policy transfer can change external systems and policies of universities, the fundamental reforms in the minds of faculty and inner workings of organization can only come about after a careful consideration of the societal and cultural values embedded within society.

A Study on the Direction of Human Identity and Dignity Education in the AI Era. (AI시대, 인간의 정체성과 존엄성 교육의 방향)

  • Seo, Mikyoung
    • Journal of Christian Education in Korea
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    • v.67
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    • pp.157-194
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    • 2021
  • The issue of AI's ethical consciousness has been constantly on the rise. AI learns and imitates everything behavior human beings do, just like a child. Therefore, the ethical consciousness we currently demand from AI is first the ethical consciousness required of humans, and at the center of it is the dignity of humans. Thus, this study analyzed human identity and its problems according to the development of AI technology, apologized the theological premises and characteristics of human dignity, and sought the direction of human dignity education as follows. First, this study discussed the development of AI and its relation to human beings. The development of AI's technology has led to the sharing of "reason or intelligence" with machines called AI which have been restricted to the exclusive property of mankind. This raised the question of the superior humanity which humans would be remained to be distinguished from AI machines. Second, this study discussed transhumanism and human identity. Transhumanism has been argued for the combination of AI machines and humans in order to improve inefficient human intelligence and human capabilities. However, the combination of AI machines with humans raised the issue of human identity. In the AI era, human identity is to believe thoughts that God had when he built us. Third, this study apologized theological premise and characteristic about human dignity. Human dignity has become a key concept of the constitution and international human rights treaties around the world. Nonetheless, declarative conviction that human is dignified is difficult to be understanded without Christian theological premise. Theological premise of human dignity lies on the fact that human is dignified feature being granted life by Heavenly Father. This feature lies on longing for "Goodness" and "eternality", pursuit of beauty, a happy being in relationship with others. Fourth, this study presented the direction of human dignity education. The direction of human dignity education has to awaken what is identity of human and how human beings were created and how much they are precious. Furthermore, it lead human to ponder consciously and accept the highest value of what human beings are, how they were created, and how precious they are. That is about educating human identity, and its core is that regardless of the circumstances - the wealth gap, knowledge level, skin color, gender, age, disability, etc. - all people are in God's image and for the glory of God, thereby being very important to God.

A Study on the Status of Medical Equipment and Radiological Technologists using Big Data for Health Care: Based on Data for 2020-2021 (보건의료 빅데이터를 활용한 의료장비 및 방사선사 인력 현황 연구 : 2020-2021년 자료를 기준으로)

  • Jang, Hyon-Chol
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.667-673
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    • 2021
  • As we enter the era of the 4th industrial revolution, it is judged that the scope of work of radiologists will be further expanded according to the innovation and advancement of radiation medical technology development. In this study, the current status of medical equipment and radiology technicians was identified, and basic data were provided for the plan for nurturing talents in the field of radiation medical technology in the era of the 4th industrial revolution, as well as career and employment counseling. Data from the second quarter of 2020 and the second quarter of 2021 were analyzed using health and medical big data. As a result of comparing the status of medical equipment by type in 2021 compared to 2020, C-Arm X-ray examination equipment increased by 5.83% to 6,638 units, followed by MRI examination equipment 1,811 units 5.29%, and angiography equipment 725 units 5.22% , general X-ray examination equipment 21,557 units increased 3.99%, CT examination equipment 2,136 units 3.03%, and breast examination equipment 3,425 units increased 3.00%. As a result of a comparison of the total number of radiologists in 2021 compared to 2020, the number was 29,038, an increase of 2.73%. As a result of comparing the status of radiographers by region, the increase was highest in the Gyeonggi region with 5.96%, followed by the Gangwon region with a 5.66% increase and the Chungnam region with a 3.81% increase. In a situation where the number of medical equipment and radiologist manpower is increasing, universities are developing specialized knowledge and practical competency through subject development related to the understanding and utilization of customized artificial intelligence and big data that can be applied in the medical radiation technology field in the era of the 4th industrial revolution. It is necessary to nurture qualified radiographers, and at the level of the association, it is thought that active policies are needed to create new jobs and improve employment.