• Title/Summary/Keyword: Joint Probability

Search Result 292, Processing Time 0.022 seconds

Influence Analysis of Seismic Risk due to the Failure Correlation in Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (다중기기 손상 상관성에 의한 지진리스크 영향 분석)

  • Eem, Seung-Hyun;Choi, In-Kil
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.23 no.2
    • /
    • pp.101-108
    • /
    • 2019
  • The seismic safety of nuclear power plants has always been emphasized by the effects of accidents. In general, the seismic safety evaluation of nuclear power plants carries out a seismic probabilistic safety assessment. The current probabilistic safety assessment assumes that damage to the structure, system, and components (SSCs) occurs independently to each other or perfect dependently to each other. In case of earthquake events, the failure event occurs with the correlation due to the correlation between the seismic response of the SSCs and the seismic performance of the SSCs. In this study, the EEMS (External Event Mensuration System) code is developed which can perform the seismic probabilistic safety assessment considering correlation. The developed code is verified by comparing with the multiplier n, which is for calculating the joint probability of failure, which is proposed by Mankamo. It is analyzed the changes in seismic fragility curves and seismic risks with correlation. As a result, it was confirmed that the seismic fragility curves and seismic risk change according to the failure correlation coefficient. This means that it is important to select an appropriate failure correlation coefficient in order to perform a seismic probabilistic safety assessment. And also, it was confirmed that carrying out the seismic probabilistic safety assessment in consideration of the seismic correlation provides more realistic results, rather than providing conservative or non-conservative results comparing with that damage to the SSCs occurs independently.

Implementation of Markov chain: Review and new application (관리도에서 Markov연쇄의 적용: 복습 및 새로운 응용)

  • Park, Changsoon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.34 no.4
    • /
    • pp.537-556
    • /
    • 2021
  • Properties of statistical process control procedures may not be derived analytically in many cases; however, the application of a Markov chain can solve such problems. This article shows how to derive the properties of the process control procedures using the generated Markov chains when the control statistic satisfies the Markov property. Markov chain approaches that appear in the literature (such as the statistical design and economic design of the control chart as well as the variable sampling rate design) are reviewed along with the introduction of research results for application to a new control procedure and reset chart. The joint application of a Markov chain approach and analytical solutions (when available) can guarantee the correct derivation of the properties. A Markov chain approach is recommended over simulation studies due to its precise derivation of properties and short calculation times.

Influence of Financial Literacy and Educational Skills on Entrepreneurial Intent: Empirical Evidence from Young Entrepreneurs of Pakistan

  • BILAL, Muhammad Ahmed;KHAN, Hadi Hassan;IRFAN, Muhammad;Ul HAQ, S.M. Nabeel;ALI, Manzoor;KAKAR, Ali;AHMED, Wahab;RAUF, Abdul
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.8 no.1
    • /
    • pp.697-710
    • /
    • 2021
  • This paper attempts to study the impact of Financial Literacy on Youth Entrepreneurial Intent in Pakistan. A closed-ended self-administered structured questionnaire covering financial literacy, computer knowledge, financial attitude, and financial knowledge with Entrepreneurial Intent was collected from young entrepreneurs. The research tried to investigate the education level with computer skill to inspect the effect of financial literateness on young generation Entrepreneurial Intent in the context of Pakistan. The research model was tested using PLS-SEM and authenticating a measurement model through the advanced methodology and their association with Entrepreneurial Intent. Results revealed that financial literacy and its two parts (financial attitude and financial knowledge) have a positive impact on Entrepreneurial Intent. The size of the joint impact of financial literacy and its components on Entrepreneurial Intent was assessed to be adequate. Entrepreneurial Intent is essential for creating new firms to maintain economic development. Furthermore, it is determined in this research that if youth has better financial knowledge and financial attitude, the probability of Entrepreneurial Intent increases. This suggests that if the youth in Pakistan desire to attain a higher limit of Entrepreneurial Intent, they must implement financial literacy models for enhancing and promoting their current Entrepreneurial Intent.

How to incorporate human failure event recovery into minimal cut set generation stage for efficient probabilistic safety assessments of nuclear power plants

  • Jung, Woo Sik;Park, Seong Kyu;Weglian, John E.;Riley, Jeff
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.54 no.1
    • /
    • pp.110-116
    • /
    • 2022
  • Human failure event (HFE) dependency analysis is a part of human reliability analysis (HRA). For efficient HFE dependency analysis, a maximum number of minimal cut sets (MCSs) that have HFE combinations are generated from the fault trees for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). After collecting potential HFE combinations, dependency levels of subsequent HFEs on the preceding HFEs in each MCS are analyzed and assigned as conditional probabilities. Then, HFE recovery is performed to reflect these conditional probabilities in MCSs by modifying MCSs. Inappropriate HFE dependency analysis and HFE recovery might lead to an inaccurate core damage frequency (CDF). Using the above process, HFE recovery is performed on MCSs that are generated with a non-zero truncation limit, where many MCSs that have HFE combinations are truncated. As a result, the resultant CDF might be underestimated. In this paper, a new method is suggested to incorporate HFE recovery into the MCS generation stage. Compared to the current approach with a separate HFE recovery after MCS generation, this new method can (1) reduce the total time and burden for MCS generation and HFE recovery, (2) prevent the truncation of MCSs that have dependent HFEs, and (3) avoid CDF underestimation. This new method is a simple but very effective means of performing MCS generation and HFE recovery simultaneously and improving CDF accuracy. The effectiveness and strength of the new method are clearly demonstrated and discussed with fault trees and HFE combinations that have joint probabilities.

Monitoring the Ecological Drought Condition of Vegetation during Meteorological Drought Using Remote Sensing Data (원격탐사자료를 활용한 기상학적 가뭄 시 식생의 생태학적 가뭄 상태 모니터링)

  • Won, Jeongeun;Jung, Haeun;Kang, Shinuk;Kim, Sangdan
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.38 no.5_3
    • /
    • pp.887-899
    • /
    • 2022
  • Drought caused by meteorological factors negatively affects vegetation in terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, the state in which meteorological drought affects vegetation was defined as the ecological drought of vegetation, and the ecological drought condition index of vegetation (EDCI-veg) was proposed to quantitatively monitor the degree of impact. EDCI-veg is derived from a copula-based bi-variate joint probability model between vegetation and meteorological drought information, and can be expressed numerically how affected the current vegetation condition was by the drought when the drought occurred. Comparing past meteorological drought events with their corresponding vegetation condition, the proposed index was examined, and it was confirmed that EDCI-veg could properly monitor the ecological drought of vegetation. In addition, it was possible to spatially identify ecological drought conditions by creating a high-resolution drought map using remote sensing data.

Probabilistic Monitoring of Effect of Meteorological Drought on Stream BOD Water Quality (기상학적 가뭄이 하천 BOD 수질에 미치는 영향의 확률론적 모니터링)

  • Jiyu Seo;Jeonghoon Lee;Hosun Lee;Sangdan Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
    • /
    • v.39 no.1
    • /
    • pp.9-19
    • /
    • 2023
  • Drought is a natural disaster that can have serious social impacts. Drought's impact ranges from water supply for humans to ecosystems, but the impact of drought on river water quality requires careful investigation. In general, drought occurs meteorologically and is classified as agricultural drought, hydrological drought, and environmental drought. In this study, the BOD environmental drought is defined using the bivariate copula joint probability distribution model between the meteorological drought index and the river BOD, and based on this, the environmental drought condition index (EDCI-BOD) was proposed. The results of examining the proposed index using past precipitation and BOD observation data showed that EDCI-BOD expressed environmental drought well in terms of river BOD water quality. In addition, by classifying the calculated EDCI-BOD into four levels, namely, 'attention', 'caution', 'alert', and 'seriousness', a practical monitoring stage for environmental drought of BOD was constructed. We further estimated the sensitivity of the stream BOD to meteorological drought, and through this, we could identify the stream section in which the stream BOD responded relatively more sensitively to the occurrence of meteorological drought. The results of this study are expected to provide information necessary for river BOD management in the event of meteorological droughts.

A Fast 4X4 Intra Prediction Method using Motion Vector Information and Statistical Mode Correlation between 16X16 and 4X4 Intra Prediction In H.264|MPEG-4 AVC (H.264|MPEG-4 AVC 비디오 부호화에서 움직임 벡터 정보와 16~16 및 4X4 화면 내 예측 최종 모드간 통계적 연관성을 이용한 화면 간 프레임에서의 4X4 화면 내 예측 고속화 방법)

  • Na, Tae-Young;Jung, Yun-Sik;Kim, Mun-Churl;Hahm, Sang-Jin;Park, Chang-Seob;Park, Keun-Soo
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
    • /
    • v.13 no.2
    • /
    • pp.200-213
    • /
    • 2008
  • H.264| MPEG-4 AVC is a new video codingstandard defined by JVT (Joint Video Team) which consists of ITU-T and ISO/IEC. Many techniques are adopted fur the compression efficiency: Especially, an intra prediction in an inter frame is one example but it leads to excessive amount of encoding time due to the decision of a candidate mode and a RDcost calculation. For this reason, a fast determination of the best intra prediction mode is the main issue for saving the encoding time. In this paper, by using the result of statistical relation between intra $16{\times}16$ and $4{\times}4$ intra predictions, the number of candidate modes for $4{\times}4$ intra prediction is reduced. Firstly, utilizing motion vector obtained after inter prediction, prediction of a block mode for each macroblock is made. If an intra prediction is needed, the correlation table between $16{\times}16$ and $4{\times}4$ intra predicted modes is created using the probability during each I frame-coding process. Secondly, using this result, the candidate modes for a $4{\times}4$ intra prediction that reaches a predefined specific probability value are only considered in the same GOP For the experiments, JM11.0, the reference software of H.264|MPEG-4 AVC is used and the experimental results show that the encoding time could be reduced by 51.24% in maximum with negligible amounts of PSNR drop and bitrate increase.

A Short-Term Traffic Information Prediction Model Using Bayesian Network (베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 단기 교통정보 예측모델)

  • Yu, Young-Jung;Cho, Mi-Gyung
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
    • /
    • v.13 no.4
    • /
    • pp.765-773
    • /
    • 2009
  • Currently Telematics traffic information services have been various because we can collect real-time traffic information through Intelligent Transport System. In this paper, we proposed and implemented a short-term traffic information prediction model for giving to guarantee the traffic information with high quality in the near future. A Short-term prediction model is for forecasting traffic flows of each segment in the near future. Our prediction model gives an average speed on the each segment from 5 minutes later to 60 minutes later. We designed a Bayesian network for each segment with some casual nodes which makes an impact to the road situation in the future and found out its joint probability density function on the supposition of GMM(Gaussian Mixture Model) using EM(Expectation Maximization) algorithm with training real-time traffic data. To validate the precision of our prediction model we had conducted various experiments with real-time traffic data and computed RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) between a real speed and its prediction speed. As the result, our model gave 4.5, 4.8, 5.2 as an average value of RMSE about 10, 30, 60 minutes later, respectively.

Video Replay by Frame Receive Order Relocation Method in the Wire and Wireless Network (유무선 네트워크에서 프레임 수신 순서 재할당 방법을 사용한 동영상 재생)

  • Kang, Dong-Jin;Kim, Dong-Hoi
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
    • /
    • v.17 no.3
    • /
    • pp.135-142
    • /
    • 2016
  • When video service is performed in simulation using NS-2(Network Simulation-2), the video replay is performed as the received frame order. In the existing video replay method based on the received frame order, as the frame orders of receiver and transmitter are different, the receiver buffer does not have the effect that the packets between the frames of transmitter buffer holds a regular size and packet dense and sparsity phenomenon in the receiver buffer is made by the irregular packet size due to the unpredictable reversed order of received partial frames. The above dense and sparsity phenomenon increases the probability of buffer overflow and underflow generation. To prevent these problems, the proposed frame receive order relocation method adds an extra replay buffer which rearranges the order of receive frame as the order of transmit frame, so it has the effect that the packets between the transmit frames keeps a regular size. Through the simulation using NS-2 and JSVM(Joint Scalable Video Model), the generation number of buffer overflow and underflow, and PSNR(Required Peak Signal to Noise Ratio) performance between the existing method and proposed method were compared. As a result, it was found that the proposed method would have better performance than the existing method.

A Study on the Effective Method to Producing Data for The ROKA Live Fire Training Range Safety (한국군 실 사격 훈련간 효율적인 안전지대 데이터 구축 방안 연구)

  • Lee, June-Sik;Choi, Bong-Wan;Oh, Hyun-Seung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
    • /
    • v.38 no.3
    • /
    • pp.64-77
    • /
    • 2015
  • An effective method for produce munitions effectiveness data is to calculate weapon effectiveness indices in the US military's Joint Munitions Effectiveness Manuals (JMEM) and take advantage of the damage evaluation model (GFSM) and weapon Effectiveness Evaluation Model (Matrix Evaluator). However, a study about the Range Safety that can be applied in the live firing exercises is very insufficient in the case of ROK military. The Range Safety program is an element of the US Army Safety Program, and is the program responsible for developing policies and guidance to ensure the safe operation of live-fire ranges. The methodology of Weapon Danger Zone (WDZ) program is based on a combination of weapon modeling/simulation data and actual impact data. Also, each WDZ incorporates a probability distribution function which provides the information necessary to perform a quantitative risk assessment to evaluate the relative risk of an identified profile. A study of method to establish for K-Range Safety data is to develop manuals (pamphlet) will be a standard to ensure the effective and safe fire training at the ROK military education and training and environmental conditions. For example, WDZs are generated with the WDZ tool as part of the RMTK (Range Managers Tool Kit) package. The WDZ tool is a Geographic Information System-based application that is available to operational planners and range safety manager of Army and Marine Corps in both desktop and web-based versions. K-Range Safety Program based on US data is reflected in the Korean terrain by operating environments and training doctrine etc, and the range safety data are made. Thus, verification process on modified variables data is required. K-Range Safety rather than being produced by a single program, is an package safety activities and measures through weapon danger zone tool, SRP (The Sustainable Range Program), manuals, doctrine, terrain, climate, military defence M&S, weapon system development/operational test evaluation and analysis to continuously improving range safety zone. Distribution of this K-range safety pamphlet is available to Army users in electronic media only and is intended for the standing army and army reserve. Also publication and distribution to authorized users for marine corps commands are indicated in the table of allowances for publications. Therefore, this study proposes an efficient K-Range Safety Manual producing to calculate the danger zones that can be applied to the ROK military's live fire training by introducing of US Army weapons danger zone program and Range Safety Manual