• 산업공학
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.214-222
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• 2009

In the early design stage, system reliability must be estimated from life testing data at the component level. Previously, a point estimate of system reliability was obtained from the unbiased estimate of the component reliability after assuming that the number of failed components for a given time followed a binomial distribution. For deriving the confidence interval of system reliability, either the lognormal distribution or the normal approximation of the binomial distribution was assumed for the estimator of system reliability. In this paper, a new estimator is used for the component level reliability, which is biased but has a smaller mean square error than the previous one. We propose to use the beta distribution rather than the lognormal or approximated normal distribution for developing the confidence interval of the system reliability. A numerical example based on Monte Carlo simulation illustrates advantages of the proposed approach over the previous approach.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제17권5호
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• pp.689-696
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• 2010

구간중도 절단자료는 감염 자료, 종양 발생 자료등 그 발생 시간을 정확하게 관측할 수 없는 경우에 흔히 발생되는 자료로 정확한 사건 발생 시간대신에 발생 전 마지막 관측시점과 발생 후 첫 번째 관측시점으로 구성된다. 이러한 종류의 자료는 Sun (2006)에 의해 자세하게 논의되었으며 관측 개체간의 독립성 가정 하에서 여러 가지 방법들에 의해 분석되어져 왔다. 본 논문에서는 관측 개체들이 군집으로부터 발생하여 더 이상독립성 가정이 적절하지 못한 경우를 고려한다. 특히 반응변수인 사건 발생 시간이 군집의 크기와 연관되어 있을 때, 이를 고려하기 위한 결합 모형을 제시한다. 제안된 모형은 림프계 필라리아병의 실제 자료에 적용한다.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회 1997년도 추계학술대회발표논문집; 홍익대학교, 서울; 1 Nov. 1997
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• pp.193-196
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• 1997

In this paper we consider a Bayesian theoretic approach to periodic incomplete preventive maintenance with minimal repair at failure. We assume that the system failure rate is increasing as the frequency of PM increases and that the system is replaced at the K-th PM under this maintenance strategy. The optimal policies which minimize the expected cost rates are discussed. We seek the optimal periodic PM interval x and replacement time K under a Weibull failure intensity. Assuming suitable prior distribution for the Weibull parameters, we derive the posterior distribution incorporating failure data and obtain the updated optimal replacement strategies.

• 한국통계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국통계학회 2004년도 학술발표논문집
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• pp.243-248
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• 2004

The timings of two successive events of interest may not be measurable, instead it may be right censored or interval censored; this data structure is called doubly censored data. In the study of HIV, two such events are the infection with HIV and the onset of AIDS. These data have been analyzed by authors under the assumption that infection time and induction time are independent. This paper investigates the regression problem when two events arc modeled to allow the presence of a possible relation between two events as well as a subject-specific effect. We derive the estimation procedure based on Goetghebeur and Ryan's (2000) piecewise exponential model and Gauss-Hermite integration is applied in the EM algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to investigate the small-sample properties and the method is applied to a set of doubly censored data from an AIDS cohort study.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.25-32
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• 2017

For repairable software systems, the Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) is used as a measure of software system stability. Therefore, the evaluation of software reliability requirements or reliability characteristics can be applied MTBF. In this paper, we want to compare MTBF in terms of parameter estimation using Makeham life distribution. The parameter estimates used the least square method which is regression analyzer method and the maximum likelihood method. As a result, the MTBF using the least square method shows a non-decreased pattern and case of the maximum likelihood method shows a non-increased form as the failure time increases. In comparison with the observed MTBF, MTBF using the maximum likelihood estimation is smallerd about difference of interval than the least square estimation which is regression analyzer method. Thus, In terms of MTBF, the maximum likelihood estimation has efficient than the regression analyzer method. In terms of coefficient of determination, the mean square error and mean error of prediction, the maximum likelihood method can be judged as an efficient method.

• 경영과학
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.143-152
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• 1998

This paper focuses on the determining the optimal replacement interval and the corresponding minimum cost of replacement for the renewal T-53 engine. It is assumed that sample failure data of T-53 engine are drawn from the mixed population, and then parameters of the failure distributions are estimated. On the basis of the above situation, the Multi-step Weibull distributions are estimated and then the optimal replacement time of T-53 engine is determined. This paper shows that if the replacement time is reduced to 2000 hours, the 2,217won of the replacement cost per unit time is only saved but also reliability of the T-53 engine is increased.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.117-125
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• 2016

Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. In infinite failure non-homogeneous Poisson process software reliability models, the failure occurrence rates per fault. can be presented constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing pattern. In this paper, the reliability software cost model considering decreasing intensity function was studied in the software product testing process. The decreasing intensity function that can be widely used in the field of reliability using power law process, log-linear processes and Musal-Okumoto process were studied and the parameter estimation method was used for maximum likelihood estimation. In this paper, from the software model analysis, we was compared by applying a software failure interval failure data considering the decreasing intensity function The decreasing intensity function model is also efficient in terms of reliability in the arena of the conservative model can be used as an alternating model can be established. From this paper, the software developers have to consider life distribution by preceding information of the software to classify failure modes which can be gifted to support.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.21-35
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• 1996

In this paper, estimation and prediction procedures are discussed for grneral situation in which the failure time follows the independent density $f_{i}({\varepsilon}_{i})$ for the accelerated life testing under Type II censoring. In the context of accelerated life test experiment, procedures are given for estimating the parameters in the Eyring model, and for estimating mean life at a given future stress level. The procedures given are conditional confidence interval procedures, obtained by conditioning on ancillary statistics. A comparison is made of these procedures and procedures based on asymptotic properties of the maximum, likelihood estimates.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.240-247
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• 2008

최근 들어 각 철도 운영기관들은 유지보수 정보 시스템을 구축하여 고장 및 유지보수 데이터를 수집하고 있다. 그 한 예로서 서울특별시도시철도공사(SMRT)에서는 전동차정보시스템(EMU-IS) 을 국내 최초로 개발하여 2000년 8월부터 본격적으로 사용을 시작하였다. 본 논문에서는 SMRT 전동차량 운영으로 EMU-IS에 모아진 운행, 정비, 고장 데이터를 분석하여 신뢰도를 평가하고 유지보수주기를 결정하는 사례를 다루었다. 그 사례로서 도어시스템의 주요 아이템에 대해 신뢰성을 시간 빛 거리 기준으로 평가하고 오버홀 주기를 결정하는 문제를 다루었다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.29-41
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• 2017

The estimation problem of expected time to failure of units is studied in a discrete set up. A simple step-stress accelerated life testing is considered with a Type-I censored sample from geometric distribution that is a commonly used distribution to model the lifetime of a device in discrete case. Maximum likelihood estimators as well as the associated distributions are derived. Exact, approximate and bootstrap approaches construct confidence intervals that are compared via a simulation study. Optimal confidence intervals are suggested in view of the expected width and coverage probability criteria. An illustrative example is also presented to explain the results of the paper. Finally, some conclusions are stated.