• Title/Summary/Keyword: Individual Risk Model

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Evaluation of Dietary Risk Factors for Abnormal Serum Cholesterol in Korean Sedentary Male Adults

  • Jjn, Bok-Hee;Kim, Young-Ok
    • Korean Journal of Community Nutrition
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    • v.2 no.5
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    • pp.721-727
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    • 1997
  • This study investigated whether dietary factors are more influential factor than other health behavior such as drinking, smoking and exercise on abnormal serum cholesterol level inspite of Korean dietary pattern differences compared to Europeans and Americans. A double case control study model has been used for the study design. One model consisted of high blood cholesterol cases and control. the other model consisted of low blood cholesterol cased and controls. 5.398 sedentary male workers who had taken medical examinations at a university hospital were used as the study subjects. Out of the study subjects, 36individuals with high blood cholesterol cases and 30 individuals with low blood cholesterol cases were selected. For the 66 individual control selection, the individual control selection, the individuals matching method was adopted. The food frequency method was used to collect the data for assessment of the dietary factors. A standardized questionnaire was used to investigate other health behavior. logistic regression analysis was employed to measure the relative importance between the factors considered. There were no statistically significant differences observed in nutrients consumption or other health behavior among the low, normal and high blood cholesterol groups, An overmatching effect had been suspected as the cause of those findings. However, the results of logistic regression analysis to identify the factors influencing high serum cholesterol showed that odd ratios of dietary factors such as tocopherol(3.0) and saturated fatty acid(1.6) were higher than I. I of smoking and 1.2 of drinking. Similar results were also observed incases of low serum cholesterol. The above findings imply that although the dietary pattern is quite different from that of Europeans and America, the dietary factor is still a significant factor for abnormal blood cholesterol in Koreans. Therefore, the dietary risk factor identified in high fat consumption populations are still relevant for the relatively healthy Korean as guideline for preventive health practices. (Korean J Community Nutrition 2(5) : 721∼727, 1997)

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Prediction Model for Reduced Bone mass in Women using Individual Characteristics & Life Style Factors (여성의 개인적 특성과 생활양식요인을 이용한 골량감소 예측모형)

  • Lee, Eun-Nam;Lee, Eun-Ok
    • Journal of muscle and joint health
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.83-109
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    • 1998
  • This study was carried out to identify the Important modifiable risk factors for reduced bone mass and to construct prediction model which can classify women with either low or high bone mass. Through the literature review, individual characteristics such as age, body weight, height, education level, family history, age of menarche, postmenopausal period, gravity, parity, menopausal status, and breast feeding period were identified and factors of life style such as past milk consumption, past physical activity, present daily activity, present calcium intake, alcohol intake, cigarette smoking, coffee consumption were identified as influencing factors of reduced bone mass in women. Four hundred and eighty women aged between 28 and 76 who had given measurement bone mineral density by dual energy x-ray absortiometry in lumbar vertebrae and femur from July to October, 1997 at 4 general hospitals in Seoul and Pusan were selected for this study. Women were excluded if they had a history of any chronic illness such as rheumatoid arthritis, diabetes mellitus, hyperthroidism, & gastrointestinal disorder and any medication such as calcium supplements, calcitonin, estrogen, thyroxine, antacids, & corticosteroids known affect bone. As a result of these exclusion criteria, four hundred and seventeen women were used for analysis. Multiple logistic regression model was developed for estimating the likelihood of the presence or absence of reduced bone mass. A SAS procedure was used to estimate risk factor coefficient. The results are as follows For lumbar spine, the variables significant were age, body weight, menopause status, daily activity, past milk consumption, and past physical activity(p<0.01), while for femoral Ward's triangle, age, body weight, level of education, past milk consumption, past physical activity(p<0.001). Past physical activity, present daily activity and past milk consumption are the most powerful modifiable predictors in vertebrae and femur among the predictors. When the model performance was evaluated by comparing the observed outcome with predicted outcome, the model correctly identified 74.1% of persons with reduced bone mass and 84.5% of persons with normal bone mass in the lumbar vertebrae and 82.9% of persons with reduced bone mass and 75.0% of persons with normal bone mass in the femoral Ward's triangle. On the basis of these results, a number of recommendations for the management of reduced bone mass may be made : First, those woman who are classified as high risk group of the reduced bone mass in the prediction model should examine the bone mineral density to further examine the usefulness of this model. Second, the optimal amount of milk consumption and a regular weight bearing exercise in childhood, adolescence, and early adult should be ensured.

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Project Duration Estimation and Risk Analysis Using Intra-and Inter-Project Learning for Partially Repetitive Projects (부분적으로 반복되는 프로젝트를 위한 프로젝트 내$\cdot$외 학습을 이용한 프로젝트기간예측과 위험분석)

  • Cho, Sung-Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.137-149
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    • 2005
  • This study proposes a framework enhancing the accuracy of estimation for project duration by combining linear Bayesian updating scheme with the learning curve effect. Activities in a particular project might share resources in various forms and might be affected by risk factors such as weather Statistical dependence stemming from such resource or risk sharing might help us learn about the duration of upcoming activities in the Bayesian model. We illustrate, using a Monte Carlo simulation, that for partially repetitive projects a higher degree of statistical dependence among activity duration results in more variation in estimating the project duration in total, although more accurate forecasting Is achievable for the duration of an individual activity.

Data Mining Model Approach for The Risk Factor of BMI - By Medical Examination of Health Data -

  • Lee Jea-Young;Lee Yong-Won
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.217-227
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    • 2005
  • The data mining is a new approach to extract useful information through effective analysis of huge data in numerous fields. We utilized this data mining technique to analyze medical record of 35,671 people. Whole data were assorted by BMI score and divided into two groups. We tried to find out BMI risk factor from overweight group by analyzing the raw data with data mining approach. The result extracted by C5.0 decision tree method showed that important risk factors for BMI score are triglyceride, gender, age and HDL cholesterol. Odds ratio of major risk factors were calculated to show individual effect of each factors.

Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessments for Industrial Processes Using FMEA and Bow-Tie Methodologies

  • Afefy, Islam H.
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.379-391
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    • 2015
  • Several risk assessment techniques have been presented and investigated in previous research, focusing mainly on the failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA). FMEA can be employed to determine where failures can occur within industrial systems and to assess the impact of such failures. This research proposes a novel methodology for hazard analysis and risk assessments that integrates FMEA with the bow-tie model. The proposed method has been applied and evaluated in a real industrial process, illustrating the effectiveness of the proposed method. Specifically, the bowtie diagram of the critical equipment in the adopted plant in the case study was built. Safety critical barriers are identified and each of these is assigned to industrial process with an individual responsible. The detection rating to the failure mode and the values of risk priority number (RPN) are calculated. The analysis shows the high values of RPN are 500 and 490 in this process. A global corrective actions are suggested to improve the RPN measure. Further managerial insights have been provided.

A study on the credibility estimation model for the indurance experience rate-making (보험 경험요율산정을 위한 신뢰도 추정모형 연구)

  • 강정혁;양원섭
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.153-167
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    • 1994
  • Credibility theory has provided with a useful tool the assignment of weighting factor that reflects the credibility of the observed individual and collective experience to secure fair experience rate-,making. We review credibility models which can effectively estimate risk premiums using credibility theory, and suggest an empirical Bayed model based on the collective statistics to estimate the structural parameters. To illustrate the use of evolutionary models, the models are applied to the actual data, such as loss ratio, claim frequencies and severity, in the Korean automobile insurance. Also the possibilities of generalizations and applications of empirical models are discussed.

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Development of Computation Model for Traffic Accidents Risk Index - Focusing on Intersection in Chuncheon City - (교통사고 위험도 지수 산정 모델 개발 - 춘천시 교차로를 중심으로 -)

  • Shim, Kywan-Bho;Hwang, Kyung-Soo
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.61-74
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    • 2009
  • Traffic accident risk index Computation model's development apply traffic level of significance about area of road user group, road and street network area, population group etc.. through numerical formula or model by countermeasure to reduce the occurrence rate of traffic accidents. Is real condition that is taking advantage of risk by tangent section through estimation model and by method to choose improvement way to intersection from outside the country, and is utilizing being applied in part business in domestic. However, question is brought in the accuracy being utilizing changing some to take external model in domestic real condition than individual development of model. Therefore, selection intersection estimation element through traffic accidents occurrence present condition, geometry structure, control way, traffic volume, turning traffic volume etc. in 96 intersections in this research, and select final variable through correlation analysis of abstracted estimation elements. Developed intersection design model taking advantage of signal type, numeric of lane, intersection type, analysis of variance techniques through ANOVA analysis of three variables of intersection form with selected variable lastly, in signal crossing through three class intersection, distinction variable choice risk in model, no-signal crossing risk distinction analysis model and so on develop.

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IoT Makes Life Simpler: How to Improve the Chinese Consumer's Intention to Use of LG HomNet Smart Home

  • Xiangdong Shen;Xi Chen;Yuting Jiang;Haixin Ji
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.26 no.8
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - The paper aims to develop the theory of TAM and perceived risk through a more comprehensive and rigorous understanding of the influencing factors of the consumer's adoption of LG HomNet smart home from the perspective of trade-offs. Design/methodology - Based on the TAM and perceived risk theory, combined with the individual characteristics of consumers in the context of information technology as the external factors of the technology acceptance model, this paper constructs a theoretical model of the factors affecting the use intention of the consumer. It was empirically tested by using SEM, and survey data was collected from 458 respondents. Findings - The research results show that 9 hypotheses of the research model are supported and have reliable prediction accuracy. Consumers' perceived interest, perceived connectivity and perceived controllability have a significant positive impact on their intention to use. In addition, this paper also confirmed the mediating effect of perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use. Originality/value - Consumers are very concerned about gains and losses. Low-level performance risks, security risks, and financial risks will drive the consumer to have a stronger intention to use, and financial risks have the strongest impact. This research provides a useful implication and guidance for smart home equipment manufacturers and service providers in product and service innovation and marketing and promotion strategies.

Validation of Mid Air Collision Detection Model using Aviation Safety Data (항공안전 데이터를 이용한 항공기 공중충돌위험식별 모형 검증 및 고도화)

  • Paek, Hyunjin;Park, Bae-seon;Kim, Hyewook
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2021
  • In case of South Korea, the airspace which airlines can operate is extremely limited due to the military operational area located within the Incheon flight information region. As a result, safety problems such as mid-air collision between aircraft or Traffic alert and Collision Avoidance System Resolution Advisory (TCAS RA) may occur with higher probability than in wider airspace. In order to prevent such safety problems, an mid-air collision risk detection model based on Detect-And-Avoid (DAA) well clear metrics is investigated. The model calculates the risk of mid-air collision between aircraft using aircraft trajectory data. In this paper, the practical use of DAA well clear metrics based model has been validated. Aviation safety data such as aviation safety mandatory report and Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast is used to measure the performance of the model. The attributes of individual aircraft track data is analyzed to correct the threshold of each parameter of the model.

The Demand of Microinsurance: a Case of Health Insurance (소액보험의 수요: 건강보험을 중심으로)

  • Hong, Jimin
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.12
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    • pp.469-474
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    • 2020
  • This study explains the characteristics of micro-insurance based on the theoretical model of health insurance, such as the low demand of low-income people and the lower demand of higher risk aversion. In particular, these characteristics contradict the existing insurance theory which states that the lower the income, the higher the risk aversion, and the higher the demand for insurance. This study postulates a two-period model focusing on health insurance, contrary to a one-period model assumed in existing studies. As a result, first, we show that the decrease in income leads to a decrease in the preventive effort for illness. Second, we offer a model for micro-insurance in which the individual chooses a partial insurance under an actuarially fair insurance premium, while full insurance is optimal in existing studies. Third, we also show that the insurance demand decreases when the outlook for the future improves. Fourth, we finally show that the lack of trust and default risk of the insurer decrease the insurance demand as risk aversion increases.