Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society (한국경영과학회지)

The Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society (한국경영과학회)
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Project Duration Estimation and Risk Analysis Using Intra-and Inter-Project Learning for Partially Repetitive Projects

부분적으로 반복되는 프로젝트를 위한 프로젝트 내$\cdot$외 학습을 이용한 프로젝트기간예측과 위험분석

  • Published : 2005.09.01
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Abstract

This study proposes a framework enhancing the accuracy of estimation for project duration by combining linear Bayesian updating scheme with the learning curve effect. Activities in a particular project might share resources in various forms and might be affected by risk factors such as weather Statistical dependence stemming from such resource or risk sharing might help us learn about the duration of upcoming activities in the Bayesian model. We illustrate, using a Monte Carlo simulation, that for partially repetitive projects a higher degree of statistical dependence among activity duration results in more variation in estimating the project duration in total, although more accurate forecasting Is achievable for the duration of an individual activity.

Keywords

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