• Title/Summary/Keyword: Improvement Ratio

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A Study on Forecasting Accuracy Improvement of Case Based Reasoning Approach Using Fuzzy Relation (퍼지 관계를 활용한 사례기반추론 예측 정확성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, In-Ho;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.67-84
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    • 2010
  • In terms of business, forecasting is a work of what is expected to happen in the future to make managerial decisions and plans. Therefore, the accurate forecasting is very important for major managerial decision making and is the basis for making various strategies of business. But it is very difficult to make an unbiased and consistent estimate because of uncertainty and complexity in the future business environment. That is why we should use scientific forecasting model to support business decision making, and make an effort to minimize the model's forecasting error which is difference between observation and estimator. Nevertheless, minimizing the error is not an easy task. Case-based reasoning is a problem solving method that utilizes the past similar case to solve the current problem. To build the successful case-based reasoning models, retrieving the case not only the most similar case but also the most relevant case is very important. To retrieve the similar and relevant case from past cases, the measurement of similarities between cases is an important key factor. Especially, if the cases contain symbolic data, it is more difficult to measure the distances. The purpose of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of case-based reasoning approach using fuzzy relation and composition. Especially, two methods are adopted to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. One is to deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic(the judgment of sameness between two symbolic data), the other is to deduct the similarity matrix following fuzzy relation and composition. This study is conducted in the following order; data gathering and preprocessing, model building and analysis, validation analysis, conclusion. First, in the progress of data gathering and preprocessing we collect data set including categorical dependent variables. Also, the data set gathered is cross-section data and independent variables of the data set include several qualitative variables expressed symbolic data. The research data consists of many financial ratios and the corresponding bond ratings of Korean companies. The ratings we employ in this study cover all bonds rated by one of the bond rating agencies in Korea. Our total sample includes 1,816 companies whose commercial papers have been rated in the period 1997~2000. Credit grades are defined as outputs and classified into 5 rating categories(A1, A2, A3, B, C) according to credit levels. Second, in the progress of model building and analysis we deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic and fuzzy composition to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. In this process, the used types of fuzzy composition are max-min, max-product, max-average. And then, the analysis is carried out by case-based reasoning approach with the deducted similarity matrix. Third, in the progress of validation analysis we verify the validation of model through McNemar test based on hit ratio. Finally, we draw a conclusion from the study. As a result, the similarity measuring method using fuzzy relation and composition shows good forecasting performance compared to the similarity measuring method using binary logic for similarity measurement between two symbolic data. But the results of the analysis are not statistically significant in forecasting performance among the types of fuzzy composition. The contributions of this study are as follows. We propose another methodology that fuzzy relation and fuzzy composition could be applied for the similarity measurement between two symbolic data. That is the most important factor to build case-based reasoning model.

Case Study of Teaching Practices of Biology Teachers with and without Research Experience in Evolution Education (진화 교육 연구 경험 유무에 따른 생명과학 교사의 교수 실행 사례 연구)

  • Ko, Yuseon;Cha, Heeyoung;Lim, Mili
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.747-761
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze differences in the teaching practices of biology teachers according to their awareness of the importance of evolution. For this purpose, two teachers who experienced study of evolution and recognized its importance, along with two teachers with no experience in evolution education in the comparison group, were included in the sample. To observe teaching practices, two classes each on biological evolution and non-evolution were selected, recorded and transcribed. The content analyzed included the teachers' view on evolution education and teachers' evolution concepts reflected in teaching practice. As a result, the level of understanding of the teachers' evolution concept was unrelated to teachers' awareness of the importance of evolution. Instead, each teacher would not feel the need for religious beliefs or awareness of the importance of evolution to have a negative impact on the awareness of the importance of evolution. Inexperienced teachers tend to reject the retraining opportunities to recognize the importance of evolution. In addition, inexperienced teachers were only superficially aware of the evaluation and improvement of evolution presented in textbooks and curricula. In actual teaching practice analysis, inexperienced teachers' utilizing ratio of the evolution key concept was higher than that of experienced teachers. Only experienced teachers were aware of the misconceptions presented in their execution and described the causes that appear in these misconceptions. Teachers who recognized the importance of evolution were widely using the key concepts of evolution, as well as more practical in preventing the misconceptions related to evolution forms. It indicates that biology teachers who do not realize the importance of evolution in biology education need to experience explicit and practical education programs as well as instructional materials on evolution.

Carbon Reduction and Enhancement for Greenspace in Institutional Lands (공공용지 녹지의 탄소저감과 증진방안)

  • Jo, Hyun-Kil;Park, Hye-Mi;Kim, Jin-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2020
  • This study quantified annual uptake and storage of carbon by urban greenspace in institutional lands and suggested improvement of greenspace structures to enhance carbon reduction effects. The study selected a total of five study cities including Seoul, Daejeon, Daegu, Chuncheon, and Suncheon, based on areal size and nationwide distribution. Horizontal and vertical greenspace structures were field-surveyed, after institutional greenspace lots were selected using a systematic random sampling method on aerial photographs of the study cities. Annual uptake and storage of carbon by woody plants were computed applying quantitative models of each species developed for urban landscape trees and shrubs. Tree density and stem diameter (at breast height) in institutional lands averaged 1.4±0.1 trees/100 ㎡ and 14.9±0.2 cm across the study cities, respectively. Of the total planted area, the ratio of single-layered planting only with trees, shrubs, or grass was higher than that of multi-layered structures. Annual uptake and storage of carbon per unit area by woody plants averaged 0.65±0.04 t/ha/yr and 7.37±0.47 t/ha, which were lower than those for other greenspace types at home and abroad. This lower carbon reduction was attributed to lower density and smaller size of trees planted in institutional lands studied. Nevertheless, the greenspace in institutional lands annually offset carbon emissions from institutional electricity use by 0.6 (Seoul)~1.9% (Chuncheon). Tree planting in potential planting spaces was estimated to sequester additionally about 18% of the existing annual carbon uptake. Enhancing carbon reduction effects requires active tree planting in the potential spaces, multi-layered/clustered planting composed of the upper trees, middle trees and lower shrubs, planting of tree species with greater carbon uptake capacity, and avoidance of the topiary tree maintenance. This study was focused on finding out greenspace structures and carbon offset levels in institutional lands on which little had been known.

Establishment of the Appropriate Risk Standard through the Risk Assessment of Accident Scenario (사고시나리오별 위험도 산정을 통한 적정 위험도 기준 설정)

  • Kim, Kun-Ho;Chun, Young-Woo;Hwang, Yong-Woo;Lee, Ik-Mo;Kwak, In-ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.74-81
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    • 2017
  • An off-site consequence analysis is used to calculate the risks when hazardous chemicals that is being used on-site has been exposed off-site; the biggest factor that impacts the risk is the risks of accident scenarios. This study seeks to calculate risks according to accident scenarios by applying OGP/LOPA risk calculating methods for similar facilities, calculate risk reduction ratio by inspecting applicable IPL for incidents, and propose an appropriate risk standard for different risk calculating methods. Considering all applicable IPL when estimating the safety improvement of accident scenarios, the risk of OGP is 8.05E-04 and the risk of LOPA is 1.00E-04, According to the case of IPL, the risk is 1.34E-02. The optimal risk level for accident scenarios using LOPA was $10^{-2}$, but the appropriate risk criteria for accident scenarios in foreign similar studies were $10^{-3}{\sim}10^{-4}$, the risk of a scenario can be determined at an unacceptable level. When OGP is applied, it is analyzed as acceptable level, but in case of applying LOPA, all applicable IPL should be applied in order to satisfy the acceptable risk level. Compared to OGP, the risk is high when LOPA is applied. Therefore, the acceptable risk level should be set differently for each risk method.

Examination for Efficiency of Groundwater Artificial Recharge in Alluvial Aquifer Near Nakdong River of Changweon Area, Korea (창원지역 낙동강 하천수와 주변 충적층을 이용한 지하수 인공함양의 효율성 평가)

  • Moon, Sang-Ho;Ha, Kyoochul;Kim, Yongcheol;Koh, Dong-Chan;Yoon, Heesung
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.47 no.6
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    • pp.611-623
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    • 2014
  • The alluvial aquifer, widely developed near the four major rivers such as Nakdong River, can be used effectively for groundwater artificial recharge and is expected to be the future water resources in Korea. This study is aimed at examining the impact of repeatedly injected river water into the riverside alluvial aquifer on injection rate or efficiency in its system at Changweon area. For this, injection tests were performed two times, first on June 19 and second on September 25 through October 9, 2013, and the mixing ratios of river water to groundwater were used as the tool to compare the efficiency of injection. The mixing ratios were evaluated by using electrical conductivities of injected river water (average $EC=303{\mu}S/cm$) and groundwater ($EC{\fallingdotseq}6,000{\mu}S/cm$) measured at 20 m depth of four observation wells installed 10 m apart from each injection well. The result shows the remarkable differences on two respects. First, in some observation well, detection time for incipient injection effect during $2^{nd}$ injection test was shown to be much slower than that of $1^{st}$ injection test. Second, the hourly increasing rate of mixing ratios in $2^{nd}$ test was revealed to be reduced much more than that of $1^{st}$ test. This means that the efficiency of injection was badly deteriorated by only 1,210 minute injection work. Therefore, injection water needs to be adequately treated beforehand and repeated pumping work and/or resting phase is needed afterwards. To a certain extent, the improvement of water quality in saline aquifer was verified in this system by injection tests.

Improvement of Water Quality Using Ultra Filtration System in Artificial Seed Production of Olive Flounder, Paralichthys olivaceus (넙치 인공종묘생산에 있어 막분리 여과 시스템을 이용한 수질환경의 개선)

  • Jung Gwan Sik;Ann Chang Bum;Oh Myung Joo;Ji Seung Cheol;Yoo Jin Hyung
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.639-643
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    • 2002
  • Water quality, bacterial phase and fish growth rate were analyzed in the process of artificial seed production of flounder (Paralichtys oliraceus) larvae to investigate the water quality in rearing tank using Ultra Filtration System (UES). Sand Filtration System (SFS) and Ultra Filtration System (Ins) were set up in the experimental group. For the analysis of water quality, pH, salinity, DO, SS, COD, $NH_{4}^{+},\;NO_{2}^{-},\;NO^-,\;DIN$ (dissolved inorganic nitrogen) and DU (dissolved inorganic phosphate) were measured. There was no data difference between SFS group and UES group in most analysis items, but the UEs group showed low salinity and low 55 values, such that salinity was $33.5\%_{\circ}$ in SES group and $30.2\%_{\circ}$ in WS group and 55 was 15.5 mL/L in SES group and 7.0 mL/L for UPS group. For changes in bacterial phase and TBC (Total Bacterial Counts), in SES group, 6$\times$10^{5}CFU/mL in seawater decreased to the ratio of about 116, and TBC, Genus Vibrio and bacteria in the Genus Acinetobacter and Genus Micrococcus sharply increased after nine days, while stable bacterial phase was maintained low in UES group during the experiment except for Genus Ajteromonas. In the growth of the larvae, fish length was 17.0 mm (SGR 14.0) in the SES group and 18.8 mm (SGR 14.3) in the UFS group. It is concluded that when water is supplied for artificial seed production with WS, stabilization of water quality condition and inhibition of bacterial multiplication are possible. When production environment becomes stable, stable growth of fish becomes possible by reduction of environmental stress.

Improving Performance of Recommendation Systems Using Topic Modeling (사용자 관심 이슈 분석을 통한 추천시스템 성능 향상 방안)

  • Choi, Seongi;Hyun, Yoonjin;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.101-116
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    • 2015
  • Recently, due to the development of smart devices and social media, vast amounts of information with the various forms were accumulated. Particularly, considerable research efforts are being directed towards analyzing unstructured big data to resolve various social problems. Accordingly, focus of data-driven decision-making is being moved from structured data analysis to unstructured one. Also, in the field of recommendation system, which is the typical area of data-driven decision-making, the need of using unstructured data has been steadily increased to improve system performance. Approaches to improve the performance of recommendation systems can be found in two aspects- improving algorithms and acquiring useful data with high quality. Traditionally, most efforts to improve the performance of recommendation system were made by the former approach, while the latter approach has not attracted much attention relatively. In this sense, efforts to utilize unstructured data from variable sources are very timely and necessary. Particularly, as the interests of users are directly connected with their needs, identifying the interests of the user through unstructured big data analysis can be a crew for improving performance of recommendation systems. In this sense, this study proposes the methodology of improving recommendation system by measuring interests of the user. Specially, this study proposes the method to quantify interests of the user by analyzing user's internet usage patterns, and to predict user's repurchase based upon the discovered preferences. There are two important modules in this study. The first module predicts repurchase probability of each category through analyzing users' purchase history. We include the first module to our research scope for comparing the accuracy of traditional purchase-based prediction model to our new model presented in the second module. This procedure extracts purchase history of users. The core part of our methodology is in the second module. This module extracts users' interests by analyzing news articles the users have read. The second module constructs a correspondence matrix between topics and news articles by performing topic modeling on real world news articles. And then, the module analyzes users' news access patterns and then constructs a correspondence matrix between articles and users. After that, by merging the results of the previous processes in the second module, we can obtain a correspondence matrix between users and topics. This matrix describes users' interests in a structured manner. Finally, by using the matrix, the second module builds a model for predicting repurchase probability of each category. In this paper, we also provide experimental results of our performance evaluation. The outline of data used our experiments is as follows. We acquired web transaction data of 5,000 panels from a company that is specialized to analyzing ranks of internet sites. At first we extracted 15,000 URLs of news articles published from July 2012 to June 2013 from the original data and we crawled main contents of the news articles. After that we selected 2,615 users who have read at least one of the extracted news articles. Among the 2,615 users, we discovered that the number of target users who purchase at least one items from our target shopping mall 'G' is 359. In the experiments, we analyzed purchase history and news access records of the 359 internet users. From the performance evaluation, we found that our prediction model using both users' interests and purchase history outperforms a prediction model using only users' purchase history from a view point of misclassification ratio. In detail, our model outperformed the traditional one in appliance, beauty, computer, culture, digital, fashion, and sports categories when artificial neural network based models were used. Similarly, our model outperformed the traditional one in beauty, computer, digital, fashion, food, and furniture categories when decision tree based models were used although the improvement is very small.

Severe Pneumonia Caused by 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus in Children and Corticosteroid Treatment (소아에서 2009 신종 인플루엔자 A (H1N1) 중증 폐렴과 스테로이드 치료)

  • Sohn, Yu Rak;Kim, Jong Hee;Ma, Sang Hyuk;Lee, Kyung Yil;Kang, Jin Han
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.193-200
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    • 2011
  • Purpose : The effect of corticosteroid on severe pneumonia caused by 2009 pandemic influenza (H1N1) A virus is controversial. This study was aimed to present the effects of early, short-term corticosteroid treatment for severe pneumonia with this virus infection. Methods : A retrospective analysis was performed on severe pneumonia patients (37 patients) who had severe respiratory distress at presentation requiring oxygen therapy and received intravenous methylprednisolone (MP, 8-10 mg/kg, divided in 4 doses/day for 2-3 days) with oseltamivir. The clinical and laboratory characteristics of the patients were evaluated through the medical records and chest radiographic findings. Results : The mean age and male-to-female ratio of the patients were 6.5${\pm}$2.9 years of age, and 3.4:1 (male 29 patients), respectively. The 5-9 aged group was predominant among the age groups (25 patients, 67.6%). Duration of fever prior to admission was 1.4${\pm}$0.6 days and dyspnea developed within 24 h after beginning of respiratory symptoms in all patients. All patients were previously healthy and received oseltamivir within 48 h. Thirteen patients (35.1%) developed dyspnea during oseltamivir treatment. Following MP infusion, all 37 patients including 13 progressive pneumonia patients during oseltamivir treatment showed an immediate halt in the progression of pneumonic infiltration with rapid clinical improvement. There were no side-effects following steroid use. Conclusion : For severe pneumonia patients, early corticosteroid treatment halted clinical exacerbation, and possibly prevented progression to acute respiratory distress syndrome. Further controlled clinical studies are needed for the role of corticosteroids and antivirals on severely affected patients with influenza virus infections.

Deep Neck Abscesses in Children and Adolescents: 10 Year Experience in Two General Hospitals (소아청소년에서의 심경부 농양에 대한 임상적 고찰: 두 기관에서 도출된 10년간의 경험)

  • Kim, Eunhee;Jeon, Ju Hee;Lee, Won Uk;Kim, So Young;Kim, Eun Ryoung
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.163-172
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    • 2011
  • Purpose : The purpose of this study was to review our recent experiences with deep neck abscesses in children and adolescents and to provide helpful information in treatment and diagnosis by comparing them with those in other available literatures. Methods : Medical records of 36 children and adolescents admitted for deep neck abscess at two hospitals from January 2000 to October 2010 were reviewed retrospectively. Results : Male to female ratio was 1.4 : 1 and the mean age was 6.5 years. Painful neck swelling and fever were the most frequent symptoms in patients under thirteen years of age whereas trismus and headache were frequent symptoms in patients over fourteen years of age. Submandibular space was the most common site of deep neck abscess in patients under thirteen years of age, whereas peritonsillar space was the most common site in patients over fourteen years of age. The results of bacterial cultures were positive in 61.5% of drained cases. Staphylococcus aureus was the most commonly identified bacteria in 6 patients (37.5%) and 5 of them were under 2 years of age. Twenty six patients received surgical drainage while the others were treated with antibiotics only. There were no statistically significant differences in the durations of admission, fever after admission, and antibiotic treatment between surgical and medical treatment groups. Conclusion : The common sites of deep neck abscess, associated symptoms, and causative organisms were different between children and adolescents. As there were no differences in durations of admission, fever, or antibiotics treatments between surgical and medical treatment groups, surgical drainage may be avoided by early recognition and suspicion. However, if there is no improvement of symptoms or size of abscesses within 48-72 hours of antibiotic treatment, surgical drainage should be considered.

Effects of Fresh, Red and Black Garlic Powder on Lipid Metabolism of Obese Rats Induced by High Fat Diet (생마늘, 홍마늘 및 흑마늘 분말이 고지방 식이로 유도된 비만 흰쥐의 지질대사에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Ra-Jeong;Lee, Soo-Jung;Kim, Mi-Joo;Hwang, Cho-Rong;Kang, Jae-Ran;Jung, Woo-Jae;Sung, Nak-Ju
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.159-170
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    • 2010
  • This study was aimed to evaluate the effects garlic such as fresh garlic powder (FGP), red garlic powder (RGP) and black garlic powder (BGP) by lyophilized, on serum lipid metabolism in obese rats induced high fat diet. Food efficiency ratio (FER) of the experimental groups was lower than the control group and it was significant difference. Total lipid content of serum decreased from 7.0 to 20.9% compared to the control group. Especially, triglyceride content decreased from 40.8% (BGP) to 42.1% (RGP) group as compared to the control group. There was no significant difference in HDL-C content between groups fed garlic powder and normal group. LDL-C contents of the experimental groups were lower than the control group, but has not showed significant diggerence compared to control group. Total lipid content was significantly increased in liver compared to the control group, but decreased over 30% in RGP and BGP groups to the control group. The lipid level in feces was increased by feeding periods of garlic powder, while total cholesterol and triglyceride were significantly increased in feces of RGP group. TBARS content in serum and liver of RGP and BGP groups was significantly decreased than the control group. Antioxidant activity of serum was 68.05% in the RGP group, which was significantly higher than the control group. From the above result, we suggested that red and black garlic powder were effective in the improvement of lipid level in obese rats induced high fat diet.