• 제목/요약/키워드: ITS시장예측

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An Analysis on Inter-Regional Price Linkage of Petroleum Products (석유제품 가격의 지역 간 연계성 분석)

  • Song, Hyojun;Lee, Hahn Shik
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.121-145
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    • 2019
  • This paper investigates the relationship between the oil price and the major petroleum products prices at the trading hubs such as Singapore, North West Europe and the US New York Harbor. We focus on the lead-lag relationship between the weekly petroleum prices from 2009 to 2016 based on the vector error correction model. We find that the oil price leads the prices of petroleum products in the long term, while there is bidirectional causality in the short term. On the other hand, prices of petroleum products in regions with high import dependency, such as Europe gas oil and jet fuel price, are exogenous in the long term. We also present evidence that prices of petroleum products in region with a large global-market share lead prices in other regions. However, if the region is in an over-production situation and low industry concentration, it may lose its price leadership due to intense competition. The result in this study can provide a useful information to petroleum refining companies in forecasting fluctuations of product price, and hence in planning their regional arbitrage trading activities.

A Study on Industries's Leading at the Stock Market in Korea - Gradual Diffusion of Information and Cross-Asset Return Predictability- (산업의 주식시장 선행성에 관한 실증분석 - 자산간 수익률 예측 가능성 -)

  • Kim Jong-Kwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.355-380
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    • 2004
  • I test the hypothesis that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability in Korea. Using thirty-six industry portfolios and the broad market index as our test assets, I establish several key results. First, a number of industries such as semiconductor, electronics, metal, and petroleum lead the stock market by up to one month. In contrast, the market, which is widely followed, only leads a few industries. Importantly, an industry's ability to lead the market is correlated with its propensity to forecast various indicators of economic activity such as industrial production growth. Consistent with our hypothesis, these findings indicate that the market reacts with a delay to information in industry returns about its fundamentals because information diffuses only gradually across asset markets. Traditional theories of asset pricing assume that investors have unlimited information-processing capacity. However, this assumption does not hold for many traders, even the most sophisticated ones. Many economists recognize that investors are better characterized as being only boundedly rational(see Shiller(2000), Sims(2201)). Even from casual observation, few traders can pay attention to all sources of information much less understand their impact on the prices of assets that they trade. Indeed, a large literature in psychology documents the extent to which even attention is a precious cognitive resource(see, eg., Kahneman(1973), Nisbett and Ross(1980), Fiske and Taylor(1991)). A number of papers have explored the implications of limited information- processing capacity for asset prices. I will review this literature in Section II. For instance, Merton(1987) develops a static model of multiple stocks in which investors only have information about a limited number of stocks and only trade those that they have information about. Related models of limited market participation include brennan(1975) and Allen and Gale(1994). As a result, stocks that are less recognized by investors have a smaller investor base(neglected stocks) and trade at a greater discount because of limited risk sharing. More recently, Hong and Stein(1999) develop a dynamic model of a single asset in which information gradually diffuses across the investment public and investors are unable to perform the rational expectations trick of extracting information from prices. Hong and Stein(1999). My hypothesis is that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability. This hypothesis relies on two key assumptions. The first is that valuable information that originates in one asset reaches investors in other markets only with a lag, i.e. news travels slowly across markets. The second assumption is that because of limited information-processing capacity, many (though not necessarily all) investors may not pay attention or be able to extract the information from the asset prices of markets that they do not participate in. These two assumptions taken together leads to cross-asset return predictability. My hypothesis would appear to be a very plausible one for a few reasons. To begin with, as pointed out by Merton(1987) and the subsequent literature on segmented markets and limited market participation, few investors trade all assets. Put another way, limited participation is a pervasive feature of financial markets. Indeed, even among equity money managers, there is specialization along industries such as sector or market timing funds. Some reasons for this limited market participation include tax, regulatory or liquidity constraints. More plausibly, investors have to specialize because they have their hands full trying to understand the markets that they do participate in

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Status Analysis of Present and Future of Chinese Animation Commercials by Comparing with the World Advertisement Festival (세계 광고제 비교를 통한 중국 애니메이션 광고의 현황과 미래 분석)

  • Han, Keke;Choi, Chul Young
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.36
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    • pp.75-89
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    • 2014
  • Since the first animated Chinese commercial titled directed by Wan Three Brothers in 1926, Chinese animation commercials are steadily increasing every year. The proportion of animation commercials in Advertisement industry increases gradually, animation becomes one of the direct means of rising commodity value. In this premise, this paper researches the history and characteristics of animated commercials, compare and analyze commercial samples from two world advertisement festivals and four Chinese advertisement festivals. Compared the world animation-advertisement market, Chinese animation-advertisement market is relatively limited under its particular status. Under the condition, this paper will analyze the current situation of Chinese animation advertisement through the samples from advertising festivals. Finally, the paper concludes finding out ways of development and effective marketing of animation commercial industry in China by checking out animation advertisement in industrial classification between Chinese and world's advertisement market.

A Study on Early Warning Model in the Dry Bulk Shipping Industry by Signal Approach (신호접근법을 이용한 건화물시장 해운조기경보모형에 관한 연구)

  • Yun, Jeong-No;KIm, Ga-Hyun;Ryoo, Dong-Keun
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2018
  • Maritime industry is affected by outside factors significantly due to its derivative demand characteristics. However, the supply side can not react to these changes immediately and due to this uniqueness, maritime industry repeats the boom-bust cycle. Therefore the government itself needs to operate early warning system in order to monitor the market and notice the upcoming risks by setting up a system to prepare for the situations. In this research, signal approach is used to establish early warning system. Overall leading index is composed of crisis index that is based on BDI(Baltic Dry Index) and various leading indexes such as finance, economy, shipping and the others. As a result of computing overall leading index which is early warning system in maritime through signal approach, the index showed a high correlation coefficient with actual maritime risk index by difference of 4 months. Also, the result was highly accurate with overall leading index's QPS(Quadratic Probability Score) at 0.37.

Interactive TV: Its Concept and R&D Trend (대화형 TV의 연구개발 동향과 개념)

  • 김형중
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 1999.06a
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    • pp.524-529
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    • 1999
  • 디지털 TV가 2000년대의 주력으로 부상할 것임에는 이론의 여지가 없다. 그런데, 디지털 TV가 시장에 진입하기도 전에 대화형 TV 기능을 추가하지 않으면 안될 것으로 보인다. 디지털 TV는 여전히 단방향 방송기술에 의존하지만, 인터넷 기술 발전으로 사용자는 양방향 서비스를 요구할 것이 분명하기 때문이다. 이미 선진 각국은 양방향 TV를 개발하기 위해 다양한 노력을 경주하고 있다. 그런데, 대화형 TV의 개념이 최근 출현했기 때문에 어떤 기술이 어느 방향으로 발전할지 예측하는 것이 사실상 거의 불가능하다. 기존의 TV 기술은 최소한 30년 이상 존속될 표준에 근거해서 개발되었지만, 하루가 다르게 변화하는 인터넷 기술 표준에 바탕을 두고 제품을 개발해야 하는 특성 때문에 기술개발이 더 어렵다고 할 수 있다. 이 논문은 급변하는 방송환경에 적응할 수 있는 대화형 TV의 개념과 모델을 소개한다. 그리고 세계 각국의 개발 동향을 아울러 살펴보기로 한다.

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Interactive TV: Its Model and Concept (Interactive TV 모델과 개념)

  • 김형중
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Broadcast Engineers Conference
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    • 1999.06b
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    • pp.131-135
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    • 1999
  • 디지털 TV가 2000년대의 주력으로 부상할 것임에는 이론의 여지가 없다 그런데, 디지털 TV가 시장에 진입하기도 전에 대화형 TV 기능을 추가하지 않으면 안될 것으로 보인다. 디지털 TV는 여전히 단방향 방송기술에 의존하지만, 인터넷 기술 발전으로 사용자는 양방향 서비스를 요구할 것이 분명하기 때문이다. 이미 선진 각국은 양방향 TV를 개발하기 위해 다양한 노력을 경주하고 있다. 그런데, 대화형 TV의 개념이 최근 출현했기 때문에 어떤 기술이 어느 방향으로 발전할지 예측하는 것이 사실상 거의 불가능하다. 기존의 TV 기술은 최소한 30년 이상 존속될 표준에 근거해서 개발되었지만, 하루가 다르게 변화하는 인터넷 기술 표준에 바탕을 두고 제품을 개발해야 하는 특성 때문에 기술개발이 더 어렵다고 할 수 있다. 이 논문은 급변하는 방송환경에 적응할 수 있는 대화형 TV의 개념과 모델을 소개한다.

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Expansion of the Scope of Electronic Commerce by Standardization: An Analysis a Secondhand Clothing Market (표준화를 통한 전자상거래의 영역 확장: 중고의류 시장 사례 분석)

  • Kim, Iljoo
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 2022
  • Since the first sale of a banner advertisement in 1995, electronic commerce has become a new transaction channel for consumers. With more than 20 years of its history, electronic commerce has become an important consumption channel for everyone and inexperience is no more a reason that discourages the consumption through this channel. The great expansion of this channel is now a formidable thereat to traditional channels. However, products with high asset specificity and complexity are still having difficulty to be traded over the online channel where the experience of the products for a consumer is limited. Especially, variations of the same product's quality depending on how pre-owners used the product and high complexity to describe the quality of the products prevent used goods from being traded over e-channels. Added to that, the information asymmetry between sellers and buyers for used goods makes the establishment of market transaction difficult. Considering the challenges, the current case study discusses thredUP, a clothing resale platform company. In this paper, we study how the company could overcome those limitations in this toughest resale market through the use of AI for dynamic pricing and standarized product quality ratings. In addition, we also hope to provide readers with the opportunity to understand the secondhand industries and its market, and see where it is heading for in the future.

Three Stage Performances and Herding of Domestic and Foreign Films in the Korean Market (한국 시장에서 상영한 한국영화와 외국영화의 3단계 성과와 군집행동(Herding behavior)현상의 분석)

  • Hahn, Minhi;Kang, Hyunmo;Kim, Dae-Seung
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.21-48
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    • 2010
  • This article analyzes film performances in the Korean movie market utilizing three-stage models that incorporate available information in three different stages of the movie life cycle, i.e., at the time of its release, at the end of the first week, and at the end of its life cycle. Based on the premise that the performance of a movie is affected principally by factors of scale, evaluation, and competition, we attempted to ascertain the effects on these factors on performances, and how they differ in different stages. Also, by analyzing domestic and foreign movies released in Korea separately, we were able to compare the different effects of the three factors on the performances of the two categories of movies. Additionally, our movie performance models incorporated herding behavior among the customers. Our results demonstrate that herding is prominently observed after the first week only for domestic movies. In general, the scale factor has been shown to be most important for movie performances in all stages. For foreign films, it is particularly critical for the first week and total performances. Whereas the evaluation factor influences domestic film performance more strongly at the screen choice stage, it affects the performance of foreign films more strongly in the later stages of the life cycle. As compared to foreign films, domestic film performance appears to be more sensitive to the competition factor. We also discuss the effects of covariates such as genre and symbolicity on movie performance.

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The hierarchical structures of cause-and-effect relationships on the profit factors in overseas construction projects (해외건설공사 수익성 영향인자의 계층구조 및 사레적용에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Seung-Heon;Sun, Seung-Min;Park, Sang-Hyuk;Jung, Do-Young
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.64-76
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    • 2006
  • Korea's overseas construction industry has been rather depressed by the weakened profitability as well as the sharp decrease of the market shares due to the lack of international competitiveness and the declined international market. There exist a lot of various risks in performing the overseas construction, and especially EPC projects, which entail complicated process from different parts, also require a sophisticated procurement and management skill. Subsequently, to survive in the competitive international market, we need to establish strategies to select potentially profitable projects at the initial stage of bidding process and to mitigate the high degree of risk exposure through contract negotiation and its adjustment. This research discusses the trend of environment in international construction markets. Then, it identifies the key factors that affect the profitability significantly through the structured surveys from 59 actual overseas projects, and it analyzes the key factors by using statistical methods. This research provides the profitability evaluation bases, with which overseas construction participants can forecast and analyze the risk more systematically, by eliciting profit-influencing factors using the result of statistical analysis, literature review and structuring their cause-and-effect relationships. The profitability casual hierarchy structure describes the profitability factors' hierarchy in details and their interrelationships. It also enables us to find out critical factors directly related to profitability aggravation through a qualitative and quantitative analysis. Ultimately, with this hierarchy structure as the base, the research will suggest how to develop the quantitative profitability forecasting model.

A Study on Economic Measurement Model of R&D Project Performance (R&D 프로젝트 성과의 경제적 가치 측정 모델 연구)

  • Kim, Young-Myoung;Sung, Hankyu
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.229-252
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    • 2013
  • The aim for this study is to suggest a practical model to measure the financial values of the achievements from corporate research and development(R&D) projects. Performance indicators for R&D projects were identified from the extensive literature reviews and the evaluation methods to convert them into financial values were proposed to overcome the problems of excessive predictions and subjective expert assessments in existing methods. The proposed model was applied to R&D projects of an IT company in Korea for its validity test. The model is expected to be a turning point in economic evaluation of corporate R&D projects in general due to its practical and reasonable scheme.

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