• Title/Summary/Keyword: ITS시장예측

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기후변화의 위험헷지와 기온파생상품

  • Son, Dong-Hui;Im, Hyeong-Jun;Jeon, Yong-Il
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.465-491
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    • 2012
  • Climate change, a result of increasing global warming, has been receiving more public attention due to its serious impact upon many industries. In this study we consider sustainable- (Green-) Growth and Green-Finance, and in particular temperature derivatives, as appropriately active responses to the world's significant climate change trends. We characterize the daily average temperatures in Seoul, South Korea with their seasonal properties and cycles of error terms. We form forecasting models and perform Monte Carlo simulations, and find that the risk-neutral values for CDD call-options and HDD put-options have risen since 1960s, which implies that the trend of temperature increase can be quantified in the financial markets. Contrary to the existing models, the Vasicek model with the explicit consideration of cycles in the error terms suggests that the significant option-values for the CDD call -options above certain exercise prices, implying that there is the possibility of explicit hedging against the considerable and stable increase in temperature.

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A Study on Technology Forecasting of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) Using TFDEA (TFDEA를 이용한 무인항공기 기술예측에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Byungki;Kim, H.C.;Lee, Choonjoo
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.799-821
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    • 2016
  • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are essential systems for Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) operations in current battlespace. And its importance will be getting extended because of complexity and uncertainty of battlespace. In this study, we forecast the advancement of 96 UAVs during the period of 32 years from 1982 to 2014 using TFDEA. TFDEA is a quantitative technology forecasting method which is characterized as non-parametric and non-statistical mathematical programming. Inman et al. (2006) showed that TFDEA is more accurate in forecasting compared with classical econometrics (e.g. regression). This study got 4.06% point of annual technological rate of change (RoC) for UAVs by applying TFDEA. And most UAVs in the period are inefficient according to the global SOA frontiers. That is because the countries which develop UAVs are in the middle class of technological level, so more than 60% of world UAVs markets are shared by North America and Europe which are advanced countries in terms of technological maturity level. This study could give some insights for UAVs development and its advancement. And also can be used for evaluating the adequacy of Required Operational Capability (ROC) of suggested future systems and managing the progress of Research and Development (R&D).

Dynamic Forecasting of Market Growth according to Portable Internet Carrier Licensing Policy (휴대인터넷 사업자 선정 정책에 따른 동태적 시장 예측과 함의)

  • Kim, Jong-Tac;Park, Sang-Hyun;Oh, Myung-Ryoon;Kim, Sang-Uk
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.67-88
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    • 2004
  • This paper attempts to explore the generic pitfalls of the traditional number-crunching methods adopted thus far for the forecast of newly emerging market trends, and present an alternative by introducingsystems thinking to the portable Internet service market as an example, followed by its rationale as a new tool for forecasting and some reasoning about why traditional methods are no longer appropriate. Most adoption models in general to forecast market trends have several limitations due to theirbasic assumptions and prospective. First, they fail to capture dynamic interactions among the factors involved over time, with implicit assumptions of 'unilateral causality' in that each factor contributes as a cause to the effect, i.e., causality runs one way; each factor acts independently the weighting factor of each is fixed, etc. Second, the number-crunching models have no way of taking into account the impact of delayed feedback often caused by introducing new policies and legislative changes on the whole system under investigation. Third, there is not a way to reflect the effect of competition by players.

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A Study on the Definition and the Analysis of Impact Parameter for Sales Rate of Condominiums (아파트 분양률의 영향변수 정의 및 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo Byung-Seung;Baik Jong-Keon;Kim Jae-Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.555-558
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    • 2002
  • Sales Rate is a key parameter whose indications on real estate market plays a key role in prospecting and establishing governmental policies and strategies for Condominiums. However, it's not easy to present systematic model for tracing the effects of this parameter on sales rate without definite concept and relations with sales rate. Therefore, this study (1) derives factors affecting Sales Rate of Condominiums, (2) specially, gives an analysis of correlation with variable for the rest of factors based on economic factors, and then finds out its influential relation, (3) presents diagrammatic analysis model of all impact variables by factor to grasp on the whole for Sales Rate of Condominiums.

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A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.

Forecasting Competition of Telecommunication Company in Full Browsing Service Market Based on First-Mover Advantage Analysis (풀브라우징 서비스 시장에서의 이동통신 3사의 경쟁 동향 분석: 선발자 이익 분석 관점)

  • Park, Jin-Soo;Choi, Young-Seok
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.145-164
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    • 2010
  • Since the third generation (3G) mobile communication service has been launched by most mobile communication operators in Korea, the portion of data service in mobile communication service becomes one of the most important factors in mobile communication service market. In past mobile communication market, most mobile communication operators made their profit mostly from voice communication service. However, the portion of profit from data service has gradually increased based on both video phone call and mobile Internet service. In this situation, LG telecom launched the full browsing mobile Internet service. This service provides a new type of mobile Internet service platform which enables to access the World Wide Web using mobile browsers, so we generally access the Web using web browsers in the desktop computer. Under the open network structure of mobile Internet like situation, it is very important to analyze the factors which can affect the competition between mobile communication service companies. So, in this paper, we first present the current state of full browsing service, followed by the expectation of its growth potentials and barriers. Then, we analyze the advantages and disadvantage of LG telecom as a first-mover and SK telecom/KTF as followers. Finally, based on this analysis, we predict the future competition among these companies and the market.

A study on the improvements to revitalize short selling from the perspective of protecting the interests of individual investors (개인투자자 이익보호의 관점에서 본 공매도 활성화를 위한 개선방안 연구)

  • Se-Dong Yang;Jae-Yeon Sim
    • Industry Promotion Research
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.29-35
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    • 2024
  • Recently, the Korean financial market has implemented a ban on unleveraged short selling, and leveraged short selling, which involves selling borrowed securities, is called general short selling. This study sought to come up with improvement measures to revitalize short selling from the perspective of individual investors. Short selling refers to selling stocks you do not own in the stock market, predicting that the stock price of the stock will fall, and borrowing stocks to sell them. Based on the results of this study, the short selling market's growth and improvement plans are as follows. First, a plan must be developed to expand short selling opportunities for individual investors. In the domestic short selling market, including KOSPI and KOSDAQ, foreign and institutional participants account for more than 95% of the market, and individual investors are very small. Therefore, its expansion is inevitable. Second, monitoring and punishment for unfair short selling transactions must be strengthened. Representative improvement measures that can minimize the side effects of short selling include strengthening monitoring of unfair trading and short selling, and raising the level of punishment. In addition, measures must be taken to further increase the level of punishment for short selling related to unfair transactions. Third, the short selling reporting and disclosure system needs to be improved. In the case of Korea, short selling transactions are not yet as active as in developed countries, but there is a need to expand the disclosure system to strengthen market transparency in preparation for future short selling transactions becoming more active. In conclusion, it is reported that if short selling regulations are excessively strengthened, losses may occur in terms of price efficiency and market liquidity, which may ultimately have a negative impact on the market. Therefore, policies related to short selling must be made while taking into account the positive aspects of regulatory effects and the negative impact on the market.

An Estimating Model for Job-Site Overhead Costs according to Progress Rate (공정률에 따른 아파트 건설공사 현장관리비 산정모델)

  • Jeong, Kichang;Lee, Jaeseob
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.43-52
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    • 2018
  • Generally, research on construction cost has been done mostly regarding its direct cost, thus model regarding indirect cost lacks attention. This research seeks to introduce a model to predict on-site overhead cost for apartment construction projects, which constitutes a big portion in Korean construction industry. We devised an equation of 9th degree via curve-fitting, using multiple on-site actual expense data, which can be used to calculate per-progress rate, per-day on-site overhead cost. We further show prospective usage of the model by applying it on construction projects sizing about 30 billion won. Regarding the fact that previous studies could not recognize pattern changes of a total on-site overhead cost, this model is worthy of its conveniency and thoroughness, as well as providing reasonal ground for its derivation in predicting on-site overhead cost of apartment construction projects.

Study on the Forecasting and Effecting Factor of BDI by VECM (VECM에 의한 BDI 예측과 영향요인에 관한 실증연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Yhun;Ahn, Ki-Myung
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.546-554
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    • 2018
  • The Bulk market, unlike the line market, is characterized by stiff competition where certain ship or freight owners have no influence on freight rates. However, freights are subject to macroeconomic variables and economic external shock which should be considered in determining management or chartering decisions. According to the results analyzed by use of ARIMA Inventiom model, the impact of the financial crisis was found to have a very strong bearing on the BDI index. First, according to the results of the VEC model, the libor rate affects the BDI index negatively (-) while exchange rate affects the BDI index by positively (+). Secondly, according to the results of the VEC model's J ohanson test, the order ship volume affects the BDI index by negatively (-) while China's economic growth rate affects the BDI index by positively (+). This shows that the shipping company has moved away from the simple carrier and responded appropriately to changes in macroeconomic variables (economic fluctuations, interest rates and exchange rates). It is believed that the shipping companies should be more aggressive in its "trading" management strategy in order to prevent any unfortunate situation such as the Hanjin Shipping incident.

A Study on the Improvement of the Policy Utilization of Technology Foresight Using a Scenario : Renewable Energy Scenario (시나리오를 이용한 과학기술예측조사의 정책 활용도 제고에 관한 연구 : 신재생에너지 시나리오)

  • Yim, Hyun;Han, Jong-Min;Son, Seok-Ho;Hwang, Ki-Ha
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.53-74
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    • 2010
  • The creation and acceptance of new technologies has been speeding up dramatically in modern times. There are also significant uncertainties about the future shape of markets, governance and social values that will have an important impact on organizations and their capacity to meet their objectives. These rapid technological and social change and uncertainties make the upsurge of interest in technology foresight, giving rise to its emergence as a global concept and policy tool. A wide range of future methods are available for technology foresight. Selection of methods will depend upon several factors, most notably available and the time financial resources, and the objectives of the exercise. Although Delphi has been widely used for many years, scenario becomes very popular in recent years. The use of scenarios can take better account of the complexity and unpredictability of the economic, social and political environments. Scenarios tell the stories describing paths to different futures, which help organizations make better decisions today. In this study, the scenario method was employed to draw the images of the future of renewable energy. Renewable energy grows dramatically in recent years. However, there is still considerable uncertainty with regard to the potential of renewable energy due to environment regulation, energy costs, and political and economic developments in the main supplier countries for oil and natural gas. Scenario can help us to identify the risks and opportunities when we develop the renewable energy, and to prepare for them. The scenario method is expected to be more utilized in the national technology foresight.

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