• Journal of Nutrition and Health
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• 제40권6호
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• pp.576-583
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• 2007

The purpose of this study was to assess the daily steps, physical activities and activity coefficient of policemen (average age: 31.5 ${\pm}$ 5.1 years) who do shift work. Body weight, height and daily steps were measured and one-day activity diary was collected by interviewing with policemen. Average height, body weight, BMI, body fat (%) and muscles (%) of subjects were 173.1 ${\pm}$ 5.2 cm, 73.7 ${\pm}$ 9.7 kg, 24,6 $kg/m^{2}$, 15.5 ${\pm}$ 1.9% and 37.3 ${\pm}$ 5.8%, respectively. The average daily numbers of steps were found to be 9,812 steps/day on day shift duty and 10,888 steps/day on night shift duty and 6,551 steps/day on holiday duty. Hourly step rates on day shift, night shift and holiday came to 1946 steps/hr, 2,130 steps/hr and 1,318 steps/hr, respectively. Activity coefficient (1.75) in night shift of the subjects was the highest and activity coefficient (1.52) in day shift was significantly higher than that (1.31) in holiday (p < 0.05). The rate of expending time for very light activity in holiday (91.5%) was significantly higher than that (70.0%) in night shift. The muscle mass (kg, %) had significantly positive relationship with daily steps in day shift (r = 0.592, r = 0.632) and night shift (r = 0.550, r = 0.503). Triceps skinfold thickness was negatively correlated with daily steps in day shift (r = -0.366, p < 0.05). There were remarkable differences in physical activities and sleeping hours depending on shift works of policemen. In the case of night shift work, sleeping hours was the lowest and activity coefficient was the highest among day shift, night shift and holiday. These results suggest that energy requirements of policemen should be differentiated according to shift work duty.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제58권1호
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• pp.18-22
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• 2009

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is an important task in power system planning and operation. Its accuracy affects the reliability and economic operation of power systems. STLF is to be classified into load forecasting for weekdays, weekends, and holidays. Due to the limited historical data available, it is more difficult to accurately forecast load for holidays than to forecast load for weekdays and weekends. It has been recognized that the forecasting errors for holidays are large compared with those for weekdays in Korea. This paper presents a polynomial regression with data mining technique to forecast load for holidays. In statistics, a polynomial is widely used in situations where the response is curvilinear, because even complex nonlinear relationships can be adequately modeled by polynomials over a reasonably small range of the dependent variables. In the paper, the coefficient of determination is proposed as a selection criterion for screening weekday data used in holiday load forecasting. A numerical example is presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed holiday load forecasting method.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제52권8호
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• pp.450-456
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• 2003

This paper proposes a multiple time-series model with dummy variables for one-hour ahead load forecasting. We used 11 dummy variables that were classified by day characteristics such as day of the week, holiday, and special holiday. Also, model specification and selection of input variables including dummy variables were made by test statistics such as AIC(Akaike Information Criterion) and t-test statistics of each coefficient. OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) method was used for estimation and forecasting. We found out that model specifications for each hour are not identical usually at 30％ of optimal significance level, and dummy variables reduce the forecasting error if they are classified properly. The proposed model has much more accurate estimates in forecasting with less MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error).

• 한국빅데이터학회지
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.101-112
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• 2018

본 연구는 기계학습의 하나인 신경망 분석과 음이항 회귀분석을 활용하여 경찰신고건수를 예측하고자 2016년 6월부터 2017년 5월까지 충남지방경찰청에 접수된 112신고 데이터를 이용하여 예측모델을 개발하였다. 모델을 개발하기 위해 경찰신고건수에 영향을 줄 수 있는 시간, 휴일, 휴일 전날, 계절, 기온, 강수량, 풍속, 관할면적, 인구, 외국인 수, 단독주택비율, 기타주택비율 변수 등을 활용하였다. 변수의 종류에 따라 몇몇은 경찰신고건수와 양의 상관관계 또는 음의 상관관계가 확인되었다. 사용된 두 개의 방법론을 비교한바, 신경망분석의 예측 결과는 예측 값과 실제 값의 상관계수 0.7702, RMSE 2.557이고, 음이항 회귀분석은 상관계수 0.7158, RMSE 2.831으로 나타났다. 신경망분석은 해석가능성은 낮지만, 음이항 회귀분석에 비해 예측력이 뛰어나다는 것이 확인되었다. 향후 경찰관서에서 본 연구의 예측모델을 기초로 하여 최적의 경찰력 배치를 할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 보건교육건강증진학회지
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.121-134
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• 2006

Objectives: This study was conducted to analyze the general properties of beauticians and to analyze correlation between their experiences of indigestion and relevant factors and thus to provide basic data to prevent obstacles to beautician's health. Methods: A self-administered survey on 257 female beauticians in Daegu from March 15 to May 30, 2005 was conducted. Cross-link analysis was used to examine indigestion in relation to the general properties of beauticians, and correlation analysis was used to determine the level of relationship between indigestion and relevant factors, and multiple regression analysis was used to determine the degree of effects of relevant factors on indigestion. Results: The results can be summarized as follows: 1. As for indigestion by general properties and beauty-related properties, there were significant differences in gender(p<0.01), age(p<0.05) and marriage status(p<0.05) among general properties and there were significant differences in the number of holiday(p<0.05), beauty culture career(p<0.01), and the degree of satisfaction on duty(p<0.001) among beauty-related properties. As for indigestion by eating habit and health-related properties, there were significant differences in the degrees of regular eating(p<0.001) and regular living habit(p<0.001), and eating speed(p<0.01). 2. Factors relevant to the eating habit showing significant correlation with indigestion were regular eating habit, taking well-balanced nutrition, and taking salty food. Among them, the regular eating habit was shown to be the most relevant with the correlation coefficient of -0.253(p<0.01). The general and beauty-related factors showing significant correlation with indigestion were beauty culture career, number of holiday, and regular living habit. And regular living habit was shown to be the most relevant with the correlation coefficient of -0.260(p<0.001). 3. Results from the regression analysis showed that relevant factors having significant effects on indigestion were gender, beauty culture career, satisfaction on duty, eating speed, regular eating habit and regular living habit. And satisfaction on duty was found to have the greatest effect on indigestion. Conclusions: The findings of this study could be effectively used to develop a practical management strategy to prevent $beauticia{\acute{n}}s$ indigestion, and to promote $beauticia{\acute{n}}s$ health, and ultimately to improve the $beauticia{\acute{n}}s$ quality of life.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제30권6호
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• pp.3-12
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• 2012

휴가철 여가통행시간 절감에 대한 합리적인 가치 산정을 위해 익산포항 및 동해고속도로 이용자들을 대상으로 여가통행시간 절감에 대한 추가적인 지불의사와 사회경제적 특성을 조사하였다. 여가통행시간 절감에 대해 평균 통행시간 2-3시간인 익산포항고속도로 이용자들은 여가통행시간 10분 절감에 723원, 평균 통행시간 3-4시간인 동해고속도로 이용자들은 854원의 지불의사가 있는 것으로 나타나 동해고속도로 이용Q 자들의 WTP가 높게 분석되었으며, 이는 통행시간이 길어짐에 따라 WTP도 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 설문조사는 2010년 여름 성수기에 실시되었고, 각 노선당 유효 설문부수를 300부씩 확보하였으나, 콕스 검정 결과에 근거하여 각각의 개별모형으로 추정하였다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.147-165
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• 1992

본고(本稿)는 선거가 선거기간을 전후해서 어떻게 경제에 충격을 주고 이러한 충격의 여파로 경제는 선거후에 어떻게 영향을 받는지를 "베이지안" 벡터자기회귀모형(自己回歸模型)을 이용하여 분석하였다. 계수(係數)를 수정하면서 선거기간에 대해 예측을 할 경우의 예측오차의 평균으로 선거의 충격효과를 계산해 보면 선거는 선거전, 선거분기 및 선거후분기에 본원통화(本源通貨), 물가(物價), 생산(生産), 이자율(利子率), 투자(投資) 등에 상당한 충격을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 과거의 선거(選擧), 특히 80년대 이후 선거중에는 대체로 현금통화(現金通貨) 및 본원통화(本源通貨)가 선거 기간중 증가하고 선거후 환수된다. 이에 따른 유동성(流動性)의 변화(變化)로 금리(金利)는 선거기간중 약간 하락하고 선거후 다시 증가하는 양상을 보였다. 선거기간중(選擧期間中) 생산(生産) 및 고용(雇傭)은 선거에 따른 운동원차출(運動員差出) 및 조업감소(操業減少) 등의 영향으로 감소하나, 선거후에는 선거중의 생산감소(生産減少)를 상쇄(相殺)할 만큼 증대(增大)하는 것으로 나타났다. 선거(選擧)에 따른 물가(物價)의 충격(衝擊)은 주로 선거전분기에 나타났다. 이러한 과거의 선거기간중의 양태가 1992년의 각 선거에서 되풀이되고 총선과 대통령선거가 실시될 경우를 가상해서 그 효과를 시산(試算)해 보면 선거(選擧)로 인한 상당한 유동성증대(流動性增大)가 본원통화를 중심으로 예상되는 가운데, 소비자물가(消費者物價)가 1992년중 약 2%포인트, 1993년에 2.5%포인트 상승할 것으로 나타났다. 반면 선거로 인한 소비증대(消費增大)나 생산감소(生産減少) 등의 효과는 상대적으로 작을 것으로 예상되는 한편, 자금흐름의 왜곡이 발생하여 유동성이 증가했음에도 불구하고 생산자금은 압박을 받게 되어 투자(投資)가 부진해질 것으로 나타났다. 또한 이러한 선거의 효과는 1992년중 지방자치단체장선거가 실시될 경우 크게 확대된다.