• Title/Summary/Keyword: Heatwaves

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Analysis of the Impact of Heatwaves in Gwangju using Logistic Regression and Discriminant Analysis (로지스틱 회귀분석과 판별분석을 활용한 광주광역시의 폭염에 미치는 영향분석)

  • Youn Su Kim;Yeong Seon Kong;In Hong Chang
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 2024
  • Abnormal climate is a phenomenon in which meteorological factors such as temperature and precipitation are significantly higher or lower than normal, and is defined by the World Meteorological Organization as a 30-year period. However, over the past 30 years, abnormal climate phenomena have occurred more frequently around the world than in the past. In Korea, abnormal climate phenomena such as abnormally high temperatures on the Korean Peninsula, drought, heatwave and heavy rain in summer are occurring in March 2023. Among them, heatwaves are expected to increase in frequency compared to other abnormal climates. This suggests that heatwave should be recognised as a disaster rather than just another extreme weather event. According to several previous studies, greenhouse gases and meteorological factors are expected to affect heatwaves, so this paper uses logistic regression and discriminant analysis on meteorological element data and greenhouse gas data in Gwangju from 2008 to 2022. We analyzed the impact of heatwaves. As a result of the analysis, greenhouse gases were selected as effective variables for heatwaves compared to the past, and among them, chlorofluorocarbons were judged to have a stronger effect on heatwaves than other greenhouse gases. Since greenhouse gases have a significant impact on heatwaves, in order to overcome heatwaves and abnormal climates, greenhouse gases must be minimized to overcome heatwaves and abnormal climates.

The Relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and Heatwaves on the Korean Peninsula (여름철 북극 진동과 한반도 폭염의 관련성)

  • Jeong-Hun Kim;El Noh;Maeng-Ki Kim
    • The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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    • v.33 no.1_2
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2021
  • In this study, we identified characteristics of heatwaves on the Korean Peninsula and related atmospheric circulation patterns using data on the daily maximum temperature (TMX) and reanalysis data for the past 42 years (1979-2020) and analyzed their connection to the Arctic oscillation (AO). The heatwave on the Korean Peninsula showed to be stronger and more frequent in the 2000s. The recent strong and frequent heatwaves on the Korean Peninsula are mainly affected by abnormal high-pressure over the Korean Peninsula on the middle/upper-level atmosphere and the strengthening of the North Pacific high pressure. Interestingly, composite difference of sea level pressure showed very similar results to the positive AO pattern. The correlation coefficients between the summertime AO and the TMX and HWD of the Korean Peninsula were 0.407 and 0.437, respectively, which showed a statistical significance in 1%, and showed a clear relationship with the abnormal high-pressure over the Korean Peninsula and the strengthening of the North Pacific high pressure. In addition, in the positive AO phase, the TMX and HWD of the Korean peninsula were approximately 30.1 ℃ and 14.6 days, which were about 1.2 ℃ and 8.8 days higher than in the negative AO phase, respectively. As a result of the 15-year moving average correlation analysis, the relationship between the heatwave and AO on the Korean Peninsula has increased significantly since 2003, and the linear relationship between them has become more apparent. Moreover, after the 2000s, when the relationship developed, AO had more strongly induced the atmospheric circulation pattern to be more favorable to the occurrence of heatwaves in the Korean Peninsula. This study implies that understanding the AO, which is the large-scale variability in the Northern Hemisphere, and the Arctic-mid latitude teleconnection, can improve the performance of global climate models and help predict the seasonality of the summer heatwave on the Korean Peninsula.

Impact Assessment between Heatwave and Drought Based on PLS-SEM (부분최소제곱 구조방정식(PLS-SEM)을 이용한 폭염과 가뭄의 영향평가)

  • Yoo, Jiyoung;Kim, Jang-Gyeong;Han, Jeongwoo;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.113-121
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    • 2021
  • The occurrence mechanisms of heatwave have been conventionally studied at a synoptic scale. However, the implications of precedent droughts on the following up heatwave occurrences have not been elucidated and are important to address the complex causal mechanisms of heatwaves. Therefore, this study evaluated the causality and implication of the seasonally antecedent droughts to summer heatwaves that occurred for 46 years since 1974 using partial least squares-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). The resulting contribution of winter (spring and summer) droughts to summer heatwaves for Seoul-Gyeonggi, Gangwon, and Chungcheong provinces were 37 % (29 % and 22 %), 21 % (18 % and 29 %), and 17 % (8 % and 38 %), respectively. This is due to the regional variability of seasonal drought impacts. Furthermore, Gangwon and Chungcheong provinces, which have a higher level of impacts of summer droughts to summer heatwaves, are more likely to be exposed to the compound drought-heatwave damages compared to Seoul-Gyeonggi province, which has relatively a low-level impact of summer drought.

The Hazard Viz-platform for the Establishment of Heatwave Response Strategies (폭염 대응전략 수립을 위한 폭염위험도 시각화 플랫폼)

  • Kim, Miyun
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.683-699
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    • 2020
  • Recently, the earth's highest temperature is rising due to severe climate change and heat wave. In addition, due to the increase of elderly population over 65, the number of heat patients is also increasing. In particular, the elderly who live alone in poor living environments, the lower income group, and the socially disadvantaged, such as children and pregnant women, are exposed to the dangers of heat waves, so the government's practical measures are urgently needed. In this study, we will build a visualization platform for each level of heat wave and provide the necessary countermeasure solution according to the heat wave risk. "The Hazard Visualization Platform for Heatwave" provide not only simple information, but also a customized safety service for citizens to prevent heatwaves, respond to heatwaves, and utilize heat wave information.

Development of calculating daily maximum ground surface temperature depending on fluctuations of impermeable and green area ratio by urban land cover types (도시 토지피복별 불투수면적률과 녹지면적률에 따른 지표면 일최고온도 변화량 산정방법)

  • Kim, Youngran;Hwang, Seonghwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.163-174
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    • 2021
  • Heatwaves are one of the most common phenomena originating from changes in the urban thermal environment. They are caused mainly by the evapotranspiration decrease of surface impermeable areas from increases in temperature and reflected heat, leading to a dry urban environment that can deteriorate aspects of everyday life. This study aimed to calculate daily maximum ground surface temperature affecting heatwaves, to quantify the effects of urban thermal environment control through water cycle restoration while validating its feasibility. The maximum surface temperature regression equation according to the impermeable area ratios of urban land cover types was derived. The estimated values from daily maximum ground surface temperature regression equation were compared with actual measured values to validate the calculation method's feasibility. The land cover classification and derivation of specific parameters were conducted by classifying land cover into buildings, roads, rivers, and lands. Detailed parameters were classified by the river area ratio, land impermeable area ratio, and green area ratio of each land-cover type, with the exception of the rivers, to derive the maximum surface temperature regression equation of each land cover type. The regression equation feasibility assessment showed that the estimated maximum surface temperature values were within the level of significance. The maximum surface temperature decreased by 0.0450℃ when the green area ratio increased by 1% and increased by 0.0321℃ when the impermeable area ratio increased by 1%. It was determined that the surface reduction effect through increases in the green area ratio was 29% higher than the increasing effect of surface temperature due to the impermeable land ratio.

A Study on the Efficient Utilization of Spatial Data for Heat Mapping with Remote Sensing and Simulation (원격탐사 및 시뮬레이션의 열지도 구축을 위한 공간정보 활용 효율화 연구)

  • Cho, Young-Il;Yoon, Donghyeon;Lim, Youngshin;Lee, Moung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.6_1
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    • pp.1421-1434
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    • 2020
  • The frequency and intensity of heatwaves have been increasing due to climate change. Since urban areas are more severely damaged by heatwaves as they act in combination with the urban heat island phenomenon, every possible preparation for such heat threats is required. Many overseas local governments build heat maps using a variety of spatial information to prepare for and counteract heatwaves, and prepare heatwave measures suitable for each region with different spatial characteristics within a relevant city. Building a heat map is a first and important step to prepare for heatwaves. The cases of heat map construction and thermal environment analysis involve various area distributions from urban units with a large area to local units with a small area. The method of constructing a heat map varies from a method utilizing remote sensing to a method using simulation, but there is no standard for using differentiated spatial information according to spatial scale, so each researcher constructs a heat map and analyzes the thermal environment based on different methods. For the above reason, spatial information standards required for building a heat map according to the analysis scale should be established. To this end, this study examined spatial information, analysis methodology, and final findings related to Korean and oversea analysis studies of heatwaves and urban thermal environments to suggest ways to improve the utilization efficiency of spatial information used to build urban heat maps. As a result of the analysis, it was found that spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions, as basic resolutions, are necessary to construct a heat map using remote sensing in the use of spatial information. In the use of simulations, it was found that the type of weather data and spatial resolution, which are input condition information for simulation implementation, differ according to the size of analysis target areas. Therefore, when constructing a heat map using remote sensing, spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution should be considered; and in the case of using simulations, the spatial resolution, which is an input condition for simulation implementation, and the conditions of weather information to be inputted, should be considered in advance. As a result of understanding the types of monitoring elements for heatwave analysis, 19 types of elements were identified such as land cover, urban spatial characteristics, buildings, topography, vegetation, and shadows, and it was found that there are differences in the types of the elements by spatial scale. This study is expected to help give direction to relevant studies in terms of the use of spatial information suitable for the size of target areas, and setting monitoring elements, when analyzing heatwaves.

Recent Trends of Abnormal Sea Surface Temperature Occurrence Analyzed from Buoy and Satellite Data in Waters around Korean Peninsula

  • Choi, Won-Jun;Yang, Chan-Su
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.355-364
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    • 2022
  • In this study a tendency of abnormal sea surface temperature (SST) occurrence in the seas around South Korea is analyzed from daily SST data from satellite and 14 buoys from August 2020 to July 2021. As thresholds 28℃ and 4℃ are used to determine marine heatwaves(MHWs) and abnormal low water temperature (ALWT), respectively, because those values are adopted by the National Institute of Fisheries Science for the breaking news of abnormal temperature. In order to calculate frequency of abnormal SST occurrence spatially by using satellite SST, research area was divided into six areas of coast and three open seas. ALWT dominantly appeared over a wide area (7,745 km2) in Gyeonggi Bay for total 94 days and it was also confirmed from buoy temperature showing an occurrence number of 47 days. MHWs tended to be high in frequency in the coastal areas of Chungcheongdo and Jeollabukdo and the south coastal areas while in case of buoy temperature Jupo was the place of high frequency (32 days). This difference was supposed to be due to the low accuracy of satellite SST at the coasts. MHWs are also dominant in offshore waters around Korean Peninsula. Although detecting abnormal SST by using satellite SST has advantage of understanding occurrence from a spatial point of view, we also need to perform detection using buoys to increase detection accuracy along the coast.

Spatial Similarity between the Changjiang Diluted Water and Marine Heatwaves in the East China Sea during Summer (여름철 양자강 희석수 공간 분포와 동중국해 해양열파의 공간적 유사성에 관한 연구)

  • YONG-JIN TAK;YANG-KI CHO;HAJOON SONG;SEUNG-HWA CHAE;YONG-YUB KIM
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.121-132
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    • 2023
  • Marine heatwaves (MHWs), referring to anomalously high sea surface temperatures, have drawn significant attention from marine scientists due to their broad impacts on the surface marine ecosystem, fisheries, weather patterns, and various human activities. In this study, we examined the impact of the distribution of Changjiang diluted water (CDW), a significant factor causing oceanic property changes in the East China Sea (ECS) during the summer, on MHWs. The surface salinity distribution in the ECS indicates that from June to August, the eastern extension of the CDW influences areas as far as Jeju Island and the Korea Strait. In September, however, the CDW tends to reside in the Changjiang estuary. Through the Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis of the cumulative intensity of MHWs during the summer, we extracted the loading vector of the first mode and its principal component time series to conduct a correlation analysis with the distribution of the CDW. The results revealed a strong negative spatial correlation between areas of the CDW and regions with high cumulative intensity of MHWs, indicating that the reinforcement of stratification due to low-salinity water can increase the intensity and duration of MHWs. This study suggests that the CDW may still influence the spatial distribution of MHWs in the region, highlighting the importance of oceanic environmental factors in the occurrence of MHWs in the waters surrounding the Korean Peninsula.

Development and Assessment of LSTM Model for Correcting Underestimation of Water Temperature in Korean Marine Heatwave Prediction System (한반도 고수온 예측 시스템의 수온 과소모의 보정을 위한 LSTM 모델 구축 및 예측성 평가)

  • NA KYOUNG IM;HYUNKEUN JIN;GYUNDO PAK;YOUNG-GYU PARK;KYEONG OK KIM;YONGHAN CHOI;YOUNG HO KIM
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.101-115
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    • 2024
  • The ocean heatwave is emerging as a major issue due to global warming, posing a direct threat to marine ecosystems and humanity through decreased food resources and reduced carbon absorption capacity of the oceans. Consequently, the prediction of ocean heatwaves in the vicinity of the Korean Peninsula is becoming increasingly important for marine environmental monitoring and management. In this study, an LSTM model was developed to improve the underestimated prediction of ocean heatwaves caused by the coarse vertical grid system of the Korean Peninsula Ocean Prediction System. Based on the results of ocean heatwave predictions for the Korean Peninsula conducted in 2023, as well as those generated by the LSTM model, the performance of heatwave predictions in the East Sea, Yellow Sea, and South Sea areas surrounding the Korean Peninsula was evaluated. The LSTM model developed in this study significantly improved the prediction performance of sea surface temperatures during periods of temperature increase in all three regions. However, its effectiveness in improving prediction performance during periods of temperature decrease or before temperature rise initiation was limited. This demonstrates the potential of the LSTM model to address the underestimated prediction of ocean heatwaves caused by the coarse vertical grid system during periods of enhanced stratification. It is anticipated that the utility of data-driven artificial intelligence models will expand in the future to improve the prediction performance of dynamical models or even replace them.

Characteristics of Changes in Air and Road Temperatures Induced by Environmental Conditions in the Urban Region of Seoul Through an Intensive Observing Period (IOP) of Heatwaves in the Summer of 2023 (2023년 여름철 폭염 집중관측을 통한 서울 도심환경 조건에 따른 기온 및 노면 온도의 변화 특성)

  • Sung-Joon Na;Sang-Dae Han;Je-Won Kim;Moon-Su Park;Baek-Jo Kim
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.75-85
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    • 2024
  • An intensive observing period (IOP) of heatwaves in the urban region of Seoul in the summer of 2023 was carried out to understand the changes in air temperature and road temperature induced by environmental conditions. The temperature observed at eight points with different urban environmental conditions was compared with the temperature by the KMA/AWS to analyze the characteristics of change in air temperature by height and the change in road temperature according to environmental conditions and road sprinkler. The comparison of the average temperature observed in different urban environmental conditions with the temperature observed at KMA/AWS showed that the air temperature in asphalt and open space sites was 0.7 to 2.3℃ higher and that the one in bus stops was 0.9 to 2.3℃ higher. In terms of temperature deviations depending on residential type, the temperature in highly populated areas was about 0.1 to 0.8℃ higher than that of apartment complexes. In addition, regardless of the size of a park, the temperature in the park was lower than the temperature in dense housing areas and apartment complexes. In asphalt and residential areas, the road temperature was higher than the temperature at a height of 150 cm, Conversely, road temperature was lower than air temperature in a shaded shelter and large park. In addition, after spraying a surface road, the road temperature immediately dropped by about 3 to 4℃; however, after about 20 minutes, it rose again to the previous road temperature. This change in road temperature appeared only for the temperature of 30 cm height.