• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.8
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• pp.153-170
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• 2020

Purpose - As the US-China trade war intensifies and lasts long time, there is growing concern about its potential effects on the global economy. In particular, for the countries like Korea that have a large economic dependence on the economy of the two countries, the US-China trade war may have a great repercussion in many ways. The aim of this paper is to investigate the global productivity and market structure implications of the US-China trade war for Korea, as well as for other surrounding countries and regions. Design/methodology - In this paper, we develop a full multi-country/region multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade incorporating heterogeneous workers and firms in individual skill levels and used technologies. We then calibrate the model using a global Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) dataset extracted from the recently released GTAP 10 Database, and assess the potential effects of the US-China trade war on the aggregate real productivity and the market structure for Korea, as well as for other surrounding countries and regions. Findings - We show that the US-China trade war may largely affect the aggregate productivity in each sector in each country/region, as well as the global market structure through entry and exit of firms, which results finally in considerable changes in the industrial comparative advantage of each country/region. Though the effects are diverse sector by sector, the results show that Korea may also be affected significantly: concerning the real productivity implications, it is shown that the machinery industry may be affected the most negatively; on the other hand, it is shown that the number of exporting firms may decrease the most in the other transports industry. Originality/value - As the US-China trade war intensifies, many studies have tried to estimate the possible implications, and for this usually the CGE models have largely been used as the standard tool for evaluating the impacts of changes in trade policies. Standard CGE models, however, cannot be used to assess the global productivity and market structure implications due to the symmetric and simplified base assumptions. This paper is the first to analyze and quantify the possible impacts of the US-China trade war on the aggregate productivity and global market structure using a CGE model incorporating endogenous skill-technology assignment of heterogeneous workers and firms.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.63-68
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• 2019

Recently, the United States and China have declared a 25% retaliatory tariff for the partner country products of 50 billion dollar scale. "Trade war" is getting full swing. Such conflicts between economic powers may spread to Japan like the domino phenomenon following the EU (European Union) and become bigger in the global trade war. As a result, Korea has an economic system with a high degree of external dependence, and there is an expert's analysis that it will become the largest victim of the global trade war. If the WTO Dispute Settlement Authority approves this US 301 retaliation measure in the same way as the past case (US-EU hormone-treated beef imports), the United States will not import any Chinese imported products Chinese products) can be imposed. If the US launches a special 301 or super 301, which is stronger than the regular 301, then China is very likely to enforce US retaliation against it, and the trade war between the two countries could become a reality. This phenomenon is likely to have a negative impact on Korean companies. In particular, Korea, which is highly reliant on intermediate goods exports to China, is expected to suffer a great deal of damage. Therefore, Korea needs flexible response at home and abroad, it is necessary to enhance the autonomy of companies and protect export industries. Adjusting corporate tax rate as well as domestic industry height will be one way. The long-term (21 months) trade war between the United States and China has resulted in economic uncertainty. The resulting damage must be compensated. It is necessary to prepare the compensation through the economic council between countries. In the future, the punitive damage compensation system should be introduced.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.243-258
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• 2021

By using the trade in value-added(TiVA) database and employing social network analysis, this paper analyzes changes in global trade to be triggered by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the US-China trade war. The main results are summarized as follows. First, the BRI will help maintain China's core position as the world's manufacturing hub, and will strengthen Europe's service industry capabilities within the global value chain(GVC) network. Second, the US R&D industry, US wholesale and retail industries, and Germany's automobile industry were considered the most influential industries in the GVC network during the 1995-2011 period, and will retain their status until 2049, when the US-China trade war and the BRI are reflected. Third, the increase of the number of communities shows that the BRI might spur fragmentation of the production process. Finally, community structures of inter-industry trade relations, including China's electronics industry, Germany's automobile industry, and US R&D, show important features that are related to the competiveness of each country's service industries.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.24 no.9
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• pp.127-134
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to understand the purchasing intentions of Chinese consumers to Huawei and other domestic brands in the context of the current Sino-US trade war. Taking the mass consumers as the research object, this paper designs Likert five-level scale to investigate consumers' purchase intention of domestic products in the future, and uses SPSS 23.0 and AMOS 23.0 statistical software to analyze and process statistical data. Using questionnaire survey and exploratory factor analysis, this paper constructs a model to analyze the impact of consumer ethnocentrism on consumers' purchase intention. By summarizing the overall purchasing intention of consumers, it is concluded that the development of domestic brands in the context of trade war is facing difficulties and challenges in the future, but at the same time, we must seize the opportunity of consumers' ethnocentrism under this background to positively influence their purchasing intention, make up for shortcomings, eliminate overcapacity, and seek greater development through technological innovation.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.349-388
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• 2020

The US-China trade war forced a reluctant semiconductor industry into someone else's fight, a very different position from its leading role in the 1980s trade conflict with Japan. This paper describes how the political economy of the global semiconductor industry has evolved since the 1980s. That includes both a shift in the business model behind how semiconductors go from conception to a finished product as well as the geographic reorientation toward Asia of demand and manufactured supply. It uses that lens to explain how, during the modern conflict with China, US policymakers turned to a legally complex set of export restrictions targeting the semiconductor supply chain in the attempt to safeguard critical infrastructure in the telecommunications sector. The potentially far-reaching tactics included weaponization of exports by relatively small but highly specialized American software service and equipment providers in order to constrain Huawei, a Fortune Global 500 company. It describes potential costs of such policies, some of their unintended consequences, and whether policymakers might push them further in the attempt to constrain other Chinese firms.

• The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.73-81
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• 2024

Purpose: South Korea is a close ally of the US and an important partner of China. Caught between the two most powerful countries, South Korea's strategic directions are critical. This article emphasizes that the deeper core of the US-China trade war is to improve the business environment to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) to boost the economy, rather than engaging in the trade war. Research design, data, and methodology: Considering the complexity of this issue, this article applies a systematic analytical tool, the ABCD (Agility, Benchmarking, Convergence, and Dedication) model, to provide strategic guidance for inducing investments into South Korea in the context of the ongoing US-China trade war. Results: Specifically, South Korea needs to provide a more attractive business environment along the four points: expedite commercial activities through deregulation (Agility); adopt global standards of the flexible labor markets and technological developments (Benchmarking); integrate various industries and connect them to global value chains (Convergence); and create more economy-friendly policies rather than politics-oriented ones such as protectionism (Dedication). Conclusion: This study stands out not just by utilizing the ABCD model but, also by providing more systematic analysis and practical implications, particularly within the context of the escalating US-China competition. Unlike many existing studies that analyze the broader impacts of this geopolitical rivalry, this research delves into specific strategic guidelines for South Korea to attract FDI. The findings also provide implications for multinational corporations (MNCs) in choosing the locations for their overseas operations, particularly in South Korea.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.207-211
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• 2020

In the global economy, trade is not confined in geological boundaries, enhancing the international relation among countries. However, the trade tension between the largest economy and the second-largest economy raise concerns among the world economies, enhancing the uncertainties around world. In particular, the trade tension between the two countries is highly related with South Korea's trade balance, because the country is highly dependent on the trade with the two countries. Given this, we analyzed the news editorials published in Korean quality newsaper, with related to U.S. and China Trade War by looking at the ideological perspectives of news outlets or journalists to the issue within the framework of critical discourse analysis. In particular we gave a special attention to the attitude to each country in order to investigate their ideological stance to the country, following van Dijk (1998)' ideological square. The results are as follows: first, the Chosun Ilbo emphasized 'their' bad properties directly and aggresively, while the Hankyoreh designated the U.S. as a member of an out-group, thus mitigating 'our' bad quatilies; Second, the two strategies of emphasis and mitigation enabled both newspapers to reinforce in-group homogeneity and out-group exclusion. Thus, we could conclude that the editorial is a clear indicator to show the news outlet's ideological stance to each country in regard to the trade issue.

• Cross-Cultural Studies
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• v.52
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• pp.165-194
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• 2018

Employing Fairclough's critical discourse analysis (CDA), the purpose of this study was to analyze linguistically significant features, intertextuality, and sociocultural practice focusing on selected editorials of The Global Times, $Hu{\acute{a}}nqi{\acute{u}}$ Shíbào on the 2018 United States-China Trade War. The editorial titled "With the strong will of 'the War to Resist America and Aid Chosun,' let us go through the trade war against America" focused on the use of 'war' related vocabulary in the frame of 'war.' First, "Trade War" and "War to Resist America and Aid Chosun" are examples that reveal metaphors and a war frame. Second, "Strategy" is used positively for China but negatively towards America. Third, various war related words are used. Fourth, cases of allusion illustrate war. Intertextuality in terms of discourse practice pertains to two findings. First, The Global Times, $Hu{\acute{a}}nqi{\acute{u}}$ Shíbào repeatedly uses the phrase 'equivalent revenge.' That is because the expression enables China to justify their counterattack and such war that China may wage can be interpreted as just counterattack much like a self-defense mechanism. Second, the expression, 'the counterattack is not intended but it is not fearful' is repeated in several editorials of the newspaper. The reasons are the following: 1) it is used to appeal to the public, 2) by invoking the feeling of fear, the public should be understand why they should unite, and 3) the expression, "it is not fearful" is used to preserve China's global image and "the counterattack is not intended" is used to signal China's will to America. The whole expression is a good example of intertextuality that repetitively illustrates the intended meaning of China in nine editorials in the newspaper within three months, March 23-June 17, 2018. Finally, sociocultural practice is manipulated through the editorial for disseminating the Chinese government's hegemonic ideology. First, it is clear that the core national project, "China Manufacturing 2025" cannot be abandoned. Second, by calling for "War to Resist America and Aid Chosun" the editorial is manipulated to condemn and intimidate America, avoid dissent of the people, appeal to the people, and empower the government. Third, China somehow wants to open up the possibility of negotiation with the United Sates.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.275-306
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• 2018

Amid a general rise in protectionism and a trade war between the world's two largest economies, this paper analyzes changes in gains from trade for the world over a decade marked by rapid global economic integration preceding the global financial crisis of 2007-08. It employs state-of-the-art quantitative trade models based on the gravity equation to estimate autarky gains from trade, as well as a recently introduced ANOVA-type structural estimation of the gravity equation to obtain trade costs free of residual trade cost bias. Between 1995 and 2006, the cost of moving to autarky increased by about 45% on average. A decomposition exercise suggests most of the increase in autarky gains from trade on average was due to increases in import shares in total spending, with a limited role for reallocations of spending across sectors with varied trade elasticities. Changes in trade costs between 1995 and 2006 are found to have increased autarky gains from trade, as measured in 2006, by up to 100%.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.118-137
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• 2019

Purpose - As global trade disputes intensify and global trade uncertainty increases due to the prevailing trade protectionism all over the world, mega-FTAs such as the RCEP and CPTPP are suggested as strategic trade policy options for export-driven small open economies, such as Korea. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of Korea's mega-FTA participation and the induced implications for the Korean economy. Design/methodology - We use a multi-region, multi-sector global CGE model, and investigate the different effects of both the US-China and US-EU trade wars on the relative changes in GDP, welfare, and trade under different trade policy regimes; (i) Korea does not participate in any mega-FTA, (ii) Korea participates in the RCEP, and (iii) Korea participates in the CPTPP. Findings - We show, among others, that though industrial effects might be largely varied, the overall enlarging of free trade zones through multilateral mega-FTA participation may contribute significantly to the macroeconomic soundness and stability of Korea, even when global trade protectionism prevails. Under RCEP and CPTPP trade regimes, Korea's GDP may increase even when the global trade environment deteriorates as trade wars occur and intensify between the US and China, or between the US and EU. It is also estimated that RCEP participation increases Korea's GDP, welfare (measured in equivalent variation), and total trade by 1.12%, $1.09 billion, and 2.54%, respectively, while CPTPP participation increases them by 0.19%, $0.92 billion, and 0.13%, respectively. Originality/value - Existing studies usually focus on the direct impacts of mega-FTA participation on macroeconomic variables such as GDP, welfare, and trade, and do not consider the possible buffer effects of a mega-FTA when the global trade environment worsens. In this paper, we analyze and quantify not only the direct impacts of RCEP and CPTPP on the main macroeconomic variables but also the possible buffer effects of the RCEP and CPTPP in the cases of the US-China and US-EU trade wars.