• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.133-143
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• 2023

The detrimental impacts of financial instability on the world economy during the financial crisis highlighted the requirement to understand the existing financial circumstances. Stability and developments in financial conditions are important for economic prosperity. This study analyses the impact of geopolitical risk on the economic conditions of some specific emerging economies using monthly data from January 1999 to September 2016 by applying a fixed-effects panel data model. The estimation results demonstrated that geopolitical risk has a significant, negative impact on financial conditions. It shows geopolitical risk could be seen as a key factor that contributes towards financial conditions. Further, it implies that negative shocks of high geopolitical risk experienced by emerging economies are one of the primary reasons for the financial conditions' deterioration. The findings provide important insights for governments, policymakers, and investors. For instance, governments and politicians should refrain from expressing or producing tension, economic discomfort, or news that is likely to increase a high geopolitical risk. Maintaining a close eye on geopolitical risk and its sources may also help to stabilize financial conditions and develop a well-functioning financial system. As a result, investors would be better informed about an economy's economic and financial conditions, allowing them to diversify their international portfolios and devise investing strategies during uncertain economic times.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.239-245
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• 2023

This study examined the impact of geopolitical risk on port throughput in Korea. With a high trade-to-GDP ratio, Korea has an open economy. The vast majority of its exports and imports are serviced by maritime transport. Therefore, cargo volume of Korean seaports is highly likely to be affected by changes in global economy resulting from escalation in geopolitical risk. In this regard, this study investigated the relationship between geopolitical risk and port throughput in Korea during the period of 1995-2022. Results indicated that the impact of geopolitical risk on port throughput was not statistically significant. However, the relationship varied by export, import, and ports. Especially, it was revealed that cargo volume of Korean ports was negatively associated with the level of geopolitical risk. In addition, it was also found that geopolitical risk had a negative impact on the unit price of Korean import..

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.206-213
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• 2024

This paper aims to investigate the causal relationship between geopolitical risk and stock price volatility in the shipping industry. Given its international nature and dependence on global trade, this industry is exposed to various uncertainties and risk factors. This study specifically focuses on the impact of geopolitical risk, which has gained significant attention in recent years due to events such as the Russia-Ukraine War and the Israel-Hamas War. To analyze this relationship, the study utilizes vector autoregressive model-based causality tests. The research estimates the causal relationship between geopolitical risk indicators and the stock price volatility of five shipping companies listed on the Korea Exchange. The study covers the period from 2000 to 2023. The results indicate the following: Firstly, an increase in geopolitical risk leads to a rise in stock price volatility for shipping companies. Moreover, the impact of actual geopolitical events, rather than just diplomatic disputes, is statistically significant. Lastly, the impact of geopolitical risk is particularly significant in the bulk shipping sector.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.45-62
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• 2022

Purpose - Using unexpected changes in geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula as a quasi-natural experimental setting, we examine whether and how geopolitical risks travel across borders through firm-level imports and exports linkages. We also test whether the effects are driven by either imports or exports and assess whether firms can effectively hedge themselves against geopolitical risks. Design/methodology - We focus on a series of unanticipated geopolitical events taken place in Korea in 2018. Making use of the shocks to geopolitical climate, we identify five milestone events toward peace talks. We employ the event studies methodology. We examine heterogenous firm-level stock price reactions around key event dates depending on firms' exposure to geopolitical risks. As a measure of firms' exposure to geopolitical risks in Korea, we utilize a text-based measure of firm-level trade links. When a firm announces and discusses its purchase of inputs from Korea or sales of outputs to Korea in their annual disclosure filings, we define a firm to have a trade relationship with Korea and have exposure to Korean geopolitical risks. Similarly, we use a measure of a firm's hedging policies based on a firm's textual mention of the use of foreign exchange derivatives in their annual disclosure. Findings - We find that U.S. firms that have direct trade links to Korea gained significantly more value when the intensity of geopolitical risks drops compared to firms without such trade links to Korea. The effects are pronounced for firms purchasing inputs from or selling outputs to Korea. We find that the effectiveness of foreign exchange hedging against geopolitical risks is limited. Originality/value - We document the international transmission of geopolitical uncertainty through trade linkages. Export links as well as import links serve as important nexus of transmission of geopolitical risks across borders. Hedging strategies involving foreign-exchanges derivatives do not seem to insulate firms again geopolitical risks. With the recent movements of localization and reshuffling of the global value chain, our results suggest a significant impact of geopolitical risks in Korea on the construction of the global value chain.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.119-133
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• 2021

After 'Zhou Chuchu (走出去, Go global)' in the early 2000s, and with the 'One-to-One Road' initiative in 2012, China's Overseas Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI) has increased significantly, resulting in high academic interest. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of national risks of home country on China's OFDI by using data from 49 countries along the 'One-to-One Road' between 2007 and 2018, and to compare the factors of national risks that attract investment from the world. As a result of the study, market economy companies' perceptions of national risks are mostly negative, so risk acts as a deterrent to investment. On the other hand, national risks of home countries have had positive effects on China's OFDI, which would mean that Chinese investors, mostly state-owned enterprises have a high tendency to invest in regions or countries with high national risks. Other economic factors, such as the size of the investment partner country's market, GNI per capita, and trade openness, had a positive (+) effect, and natural resources had a negative (-) effect on China's OFDI. As dummy variables, FTA, which is an economic and diplomatic factor, SCO, which is a political and diplomatic factor, and bordering which is a geographical factor, were also found to have a positive (+) effect. This study implies the investment pattern of China's OFDI is due to the characteristics of China's unique geopolitical and economic system, and it is judged to be influenced by political and strategic factors, especially the aspects led by state-owned enterprises.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.213-236
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• 2017

World trade has entered a stagnant state, protection trade measures are spread due to delayed economic recovery in developed countries, sluggish investment in emerging economies such as China, economic recession in resource exporting countries, and geopolitical and political uncertainties along with the election period in the US and other major industrialized countries. Thus, in the economic structure of our country with a focus on export, for small and medium enterprises to grow, efforts for having various markets are necessary. The importance of the trade insurance system, which can support the risk management of enterprises, is emphasized by the fact that the majority of SME exporters have a risk management level and a lack of corporate capacity to enter the global market. This study was surveyed with 87 small and medium export companies in South Korea. The purpose of this study is to verify the effect relationship how service quality of trade insurance and utilization of trade insurance impact on the risk management of trade payment and export performance. The research hypothesis and model was derived from the basis of existing theory and empirical research, and obtained the following results. Firstly, Service Quality of Trade Insurance showed positive (+) effect on Export Performance. Secondly, Utilization of Trade Insurance showed positive (+) effect on Risk Management of Trade Payment. Thirdly, Risk Management of Trade Payment showed positive (+) effect on Export Performance. This study is differentiated from previous research information by empirically evaluating the relationship between the risk management of trade payment and export performance through utilization of trade insurance. This study contributed to academic by examining the research on the risk management of trade insurance and also practically suggested the direction how small and medium export company is to take the advantage of the trade insurance.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.280-295
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• 2022

This paper contains an introduction to industrial problems, solutions, and results conducted with the Korea Association of Machinery Industry. The client company commissioned the problem of upgrading the method of identifying global supply risky items. Accordingly, the factors affecting the supply and demand of imported items in the global supply chain were identified and the method of selecting risky items was studied and delivered. Through research and discussions with the client companies, it is confirmed that the most suitable factors for identifying global supply risky items are 'import size', 'import dependence', and 'trend abnormality'. The meaning of each indicator is introduced, and risky items are selected using export/import data until October 2022. Through this paper, it is expected that countries and companies will be able to identify global supply risky items in advance and prepare for risks in the new normal situation: the economic situation caused by infectious diseases such as the COVID-19 pandemic; and the export/import regulation due to geopolitical problems. The client company will include in his report, the method presented in this paper and the risky items selected by the method.

• Strategy21
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• s.37
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• pp.104-143
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• 2015

China's new grand strategy, the "One Belt, One Road Initiative" (also Belt Road Initiative, or BRI) has two primary components: Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the "Silk Road Economic Belt" in September 2013 during a visit to Kazakhstan, and the "21^st Century Maritime Silk Route Economic Belt" in a speech to the Indonesian parliament the following month. The BRI is intended to supply China with energy and new markets, and also to integrate the countries of Central Asia, the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN), and the Indian Ocean Region - though not Northeast Asia - into the "Chinese Dream". The project will be supported by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), due to open in 2016 with 57 founding members from all around the world, and China has already promised US$ 50 billion in seed funding. China's vision includes networks of energy pipelines, railways, sea port facilities and logistics hubs; these will have obvious commercial benefits, but also huge geopolitical significance. China seems to have two distinct aims: externally, to restore its historical sphere of influence; and internally, to cope with income inequalities by creating middle-class jobs through enhanced trade and the broader development of its economy. In South Korea, opinion on the BRI is sharply polarized. Economic and industrial interests, including Korea Railroad Corporation (KORAIL), support South Korean involvement in the BRI and closer economic interactions with China. They see how the BRI fits nicely with President Park Geun-hye's Eurasia Initiative, and anticipate significant commercial benefits for South Korea from better connections to energy-rich Russia and the consumer markets of Europe and Central Asia. They welcome the prospect of reduced trade barriers between China and South Korea, and of improved transport infrastructure, and perceive the political risks as manageable. But some ardently pro-US pundits worry that the political risks of the BRI are too high. They cast doubt on the feasibility of implementing the BRI, and warn that although it has been portrayed primarily in economic terms, it actually reveals a crucial Chinese geopolitical strategy. They are fearful of China's growing regional dominance, and worried that the BRI is ultimately a means to supplant the prevailing US-led regional security structure and restore the Middle Kingdom order, with China as the only power that matters in the region. According to this view, once China has complete control of the regional logistics hubs and sea ports, this will severely limit the autonomy of China's neighbors, including South Korea, who will have to toe the Chinese line, both economically and politically, or risk their own peace and prosperity.

• Strategy21
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• s.37
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• pp.144-176
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• 2015

In September 2013, President Park Geun-hye announced her controversial "Look North" policy, of which the most salient aspect is the "Eurasia Initiative". This comprises various proposals designed to overcome existing constraints by developing new markets and creating new economic partners in continental areas from which South Korea has been alienated since the end of World War II, and this dovetails nicely with China's One Belt, One Road Initiative. The concepts of the "Silk Road Rail Express (SRX)" and the "East Sea Rim Maritime Community (ESRMC)" have also been discussed. SRX is at present a purely symbolic railroad project intended to encourage individual, cultural, trade and diplomatic exchanges. ESRMC is a model for establishing an ad hoc community to promote regional economic cooperation around the East Sea. President Park's Eurasia Initiative will provide South Korean investment for the Northeast to complement Russian plans, like the "Northern Energy Road" being built by Gazprom, and Chinese plans, like the Chang-Ji-Tu Development Plan for the North Korean port of Rajin. China's trade, as well as its energy and food supplies, pass through the Strait of Malacca and the Indian Ocean, and are thus vulnerable to interdiction by India or the US. China is therefore trying to reduce its exposure geopolitical risk by establishing a network of corridors between the Belt and the Road to provide alternative paths. The "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor" and the "China-Myanmar Economic Corridor" provide such connections, and South Korea hopes that SRX and ESRMC can become part of a "China-South Korea Economic Corridor". This concept could do much to revitalize the underdeveloped northern provinces of China and Russia's Far East, not to mention North Korea. By linking up the Trans-Siberian Railway, the Trans-China Railway, the Trans-Mongolian Railway and the Trans-Korean Railway all these Asian countries will be connected to one another, and ultimately to Europe. An interim connection between China and South Korea using a rail-ferry has also been proposed.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.44-64
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• 2017

Russia's push in the Asia-Pacific region stems from its interests that have the national, regional and global dimensions. In their turn, the aims of this policy are civilizational, geopolitical, economic and prospective, with a long-term outlook. In the course of their achievement, cooperation with Northeast Asia's countries will play one of the key roles owing to the factors of geographic proximity, Northeast Asia's economic potential, risk hedging and a growing influence Northeast Asia exerts upon the global development. A new cooperation paradigm between Russia and the states of Northeast Asia should be based upon establishing and cementing self-reproducing ties. This is the central aim of Russian initiatives in relations, with Japan, the Republic of Korea, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Mongolia and China. However, numerous obstacles ranging from Russia's absence in the regional free trade agreements and supply-production chains of value-added production to the permanent international instability generated by Pyongyang's missile-nuclear developments hamper the practical implementation of this task. Realizing the necessity to give an additional impetus to this new cooperative paradigm, Russia has to develop directions with an apparent consolidating effect. The most promising may be the establishment of a permanent security forum based upon Northeast Asia Peace and Security Mechanism chaired by the Russian Federation. The urgency of this measure and its expected support stem from the necessity to strengthen security in Northeast Asia, a task neither the US-led hub-and-spoke system nor ASE-AN-led multilateral dialogue venues have been able to resolve. The issues addressed at the security forum must include the unification of approaches to North Korean nuclear issue and producing a document specifying actions of the claimants on the disputed maritime territories in the "direct contact" situations. At the expert level, Russia has elaborated on the idea to establish such a forum outlining the spectrum of the key directions of cooperation. With the urgency in the establishment of this dialogue venue, its agenda has to be coordinated with the agendas of the existing security systems presented by the US alliances and the ASE-AN-led multilateral negotiations. The practical implementation of this initiative will strengthen security in Northeast Asia as its challenges will be resolved in the pre-emptive way based on coordinated approaches. Therefore, Russia as the Eurasian state will be one of the role players in the advent of the Asian century.