• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.431-443
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• 2004

For the purpose of disease mapping, we consider the four small area estimation techniques to estimate the mortality rate of small areas; direct, Empirical estimation with total moment estimator and local moment estimator, Estimation based on hierarchial generalized linear model. The estimators are compared by empirical study based on lung cancer mortality data from 2000 Annual Reports on the Cause of Death Statistics in Gyeongsang-Do and Jeonla-Do published by Korean National Statistical Office. Also he stability and efficiency of these estimators are investigated in terms of mean square deviation as well as variation of estimates.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.131-137
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• 2016

In reliability analysis, it is quite common for the failure of any individual or item to be attributable to more than one cause. Moreover, observed data are often censored. Recently, progressive hybrid censoring schemes have become quite popular in life-testing problems and reliability analysis. However, a limitation of the progressive hybrid censoring scheme is that it cannot be applied when few failures occur before time T. Therefore, generalized progressive hybrid censoring schemes have been introduced. In this article, we derive the likelihood inference of the unknown parameters under the assumptions that the lifetime distributions of different causes are independent and exponentially distributed. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters in exact forms. Asymptotic confidence intervals are also proposed. Bayes estimates and credible intervals of the unknown parameters are obtained under the assumption of gamma priors on the unknown parameters. Different methods are compared using Monte Carlo simulations. One real data set is analyzed for illustrative purposes.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.6
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• pp.523-533
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• 2018

The objective of this study is to analyze uncertainties of ensemble-based streamflow prediction method for model parameters and input data. ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) and BAYES-ESP (Bayesian-ESP) based on ABCD rainfall-runoff model were selected as streamflow prediction method. GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) was applied for the analysis of parameter uncertainty. The analysis of input uncertainty was performed according to the duration of meteorological scenarios for ESP. The result showed that parameter uncertainty was much more significant than input uncertainty for the ensemble-based streamflow prediction. It also indicated that the duration of observed meteorological data was appropriate to using more than 20 years. And the BAYES-ESP was effective to reduce uncertainty of ESP method. It is concluded that this analysis is meaningful for elaborating characteristics of ESP method and error factors of ensemble-based streamflow prediction method.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.13-29
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• 2005

This paper deals with the stochastic analysis of a three-states semi-Markov reliability model. Using both the maximum likelihood and Bayes procedures, the parameters included in this model are estimated. Next, assuming that the lifetime and repair time are generalized exponential random variables, the reliability function of this system is obtained. Then, the distribution of the first passage time of this system is discussed. Finally, some of the obtained results are compared with those available in the literature.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.183-193
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• 1999

In the problem of estimating estimable functions in classification linear models, we propose a method of obtaining least squares estimators of estimable functions. This method is based on the hierarchical Bayesian approach for estimating a vector of unknown parameters. Also, we verify that estimators obtained by our method are identical to least squares estimators of estimable functions obtained by using either generalized inverses or full rank reparametrization of the models. Some examples are given which illustrate our results.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.57-66
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• 1991

This paper deals with the problem of estimating an arbitrary piecewise continuous function of the parameter under squared error loss in the one parameter exponential family. Using Blyth's(1951) method sufficient conditions are given for the admissibility of (possibly generalized Bayes) estimators. Also, some examples are provided for normal, binomial, and gamma distributions.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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• 1993.06a
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• pp.806-809
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• 1993

This paper focuses on the usage of the fuzzy set theory in decision making systems. The approach to calculation of generalized membership function, based on application of method of principal components is proposed. For solving of the problem of fuzzy forecasting the development of Bayes procedure is used. The structure of decision making system, in which following procedures are fulfilled, is discussed.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.617-631
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• 2000

This paper is concerned with suggesting a Bayesian method for variable selection in generalized logit model. It is based on Laplace-Metropolis algorithm intended to propose a simple method for estimating the marginal likelihood of the model. The algorithm then leads to a criterion for the selection of variables. The criterion is to find a subset of variables that maximizes the marginal likelihood of the model and it is seen to be a Bayes rule in a sense that it minimizes the risk of the variable selection under 0-1 loss function. Based upon two examples, the suggested method is illustrated and compared with existing frequentist methods.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.767-772
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• 2000

Zellner(1994) introduced the notion of a balanced loss function in the context of a general liner model to reflect both goodness of fit and precision of estimation. We study the perspective of unifying a variety of results both frequentist and Bayesian from Poisson distributions. We show that frequentist and Bayesian results for balanced loss follow from and also imply related results for quadratic loss functions reflecting only precision of estimation. Several examples are given for Poisson distribution.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.781-790
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• 1999

In this paper we consider estimation of cancer incidence rates for local areas. The raw estimates usually are based on small sample sizes and hence are usually unreliable. A hierarchical Bayes generalized linear model is used which connects the local areas thereby enabling one to 'borrow strength' Random effects with pairwise difference priors model the spatial structure in the data. The methods are applied to cancer incidence estimation for census tracts in a certain region of the state of New York.