• Title/Summary/Keyword: GCM data

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Preliminary Result of Uncertainty on Variation of Flowering Date of Kiwifruit: Case Study of Kiwifruit Growing Area of Jeonlanam-do (기후변화에 따른 국내 키위 품종 '해금'의 개화시기 변동과 전망에 대한 불확실성: 전남 키위 주산지역을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Kwang-Hyung;Jeong, Yeo Min;Cho, Youn-Sup;Chung, Uran
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.42-54
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    • 2016
  • It is highly anticipated that warming temperature resulting from global climate change will affect the phenological pattern of kiwifruit, which has been commercially grown in Korea since the early 1980s. Here, we present the potential impacts of climate change on the variations of flowering day of a gold kiwifruit cultivar, Haegeum, in the Jeonnam Province, Korea. By running six global climate models (GCM), the results from this study emphasize the uncertainty in climate change scenarios. To predict the flowering day of kiwifruit, we obtained three parameters of the 'Chill-day' model for the simulation of Haegeum: $6.3^{\circ}C$ for the base temperature (Tb), 102.5 for chill requirement (Rc), and 575 for heat requirement (Rh). Two separate validations of the resulting 'Chill-day' model were conducted. First, direct comparisons were made between the observed flowering days collected from 25 kiwifruit orchards for two years (2014-15) and the simulated flowering days from the 'Chill-day' model using weather data from four weather stations near the 25 orchards. The estimation error between the observed and simulated flowering days was 5.2 days. Second, the model was simulated using temperature data extracted, for the 25 orchards, from a high-resolution digital temperature map, resulting in the error of 3.4 days. Using the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios from six GCMs for the period of 2021-40, the future flowering days were simulated with the 'Chill-day' model. The predicted flowering days of Haegeum in Jeonnam were advanced more than 10 days compared to the present ones from multi-model ensemble, while some individual models resulted in quite different magnitudes of impacts, indicating the multi-model ensemble accounts for uncertainty better than individual climate models. In addition, the current flowering period of Haegeum in Jeonnam Province was predicted to expand northward, reaching over Jeonbuk and Chungnam Provinces. This preliminary result will provide a basis for the local impact assessment of climate change as more phenology models are developed for other fruit trees.

Long-Term Variation of the Spin Period of a Magnetic Cataclysmic Variable, MU Camelopardalis

  • Yun, A-Mi;Kim, Yong-Gi;Choi, Chul-Sung
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.9-12
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    • 2011
  • Results of an analysis of 11 nights of R-filter CCD photometry data of an intermediate polar MU Camelopardalis (MU Cam) obtained at the Korean 1.0 m telescope at Mt. Lemmon are reported. After checking the spin period with our data, $P_{spin}=0.^d01373801(59)$, we compiled the reported data of maxima timing and an O-C diagram analysis has been carried out to understand the spin period variation. A significant spin period variation was detected, and fitting the O-C points to a cubic parabola led to an ephemeris of $BJD_{max}=2453682.4178(94)+0.0137380(13)E-2.07(55){\times}10^{-11}E^2+2.28(52){\times}10^{-15}E^3$. The torque experienced by the magnetic compact star accreting in a disk is estimated as ${\tau}{\approx}1.815{\times}10^{35}gcm^2/s^2$ in a simple approximation in order to show how important monitoring the period variation is. Thus we conclude that monitoring the long-term spin period variation will help to understand the physical condition of magnetic compact stars.

Estimation of Future Daily Wind Speed over South Korea Using the CGCM3 Model (CGCM3 전지구모형에 의한 한반도 미래 일평균 풍속의 평가)

  • Ham, Hee-Jung
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.33 no.A
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    • pp.41-48
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    • 2013
  • A statistical downscaling methodology has been developed to investigate future daily wind speeds over South Korea. This methodology includes calibration of the statistical downscaling model by using large-scale atmospheric variables encompassing NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, validation of the model for the calibration period, and estimation of the future wind speed based on the general circulation model (GCM) outputs of scenario A1B of the CGCM3. Based on the scenario A1B of the CGCM3 model, the potential impacts of climate change on the daily surface wind speed is relatively small (+/- 1m/s) in South Korea.

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Climate Change Impacts on Paddy Water Requirement (기후변화가 논 필요수량에 미치는 영향)

  • Yun, Dong-Koun;Chung, Sang-Ok;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.39-47
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    • 2011
  • The aim of the study is to predict potential evapotranspiration and crop water requirement using meteorological data from MIROC3.2 with A1B scenario. Increase of evapotranspiration due to temperature rise can be observed out of the analysis, while effective rainfall decreased. The evapotranspiration elevation results in large amount of crop water requirement in the paddy farming. It can be seen that rainfall intensification at non-irrigation period brings effective rainfall decrease, while contributes to higher demand of crop water at irrigation period. It is necessary to secure additional water resources to adapt the climate change. It is expected that estimation on potentialevapotranspiration in this study can be used for formulation of master plan of water resources.

The Crystal Structure of Tris(ethylenediamine)nickel(II)Chromate, $[Ni(C_2N_2H_8)_3]\cdotCrO_4$ ($[Ni(C_2N_2H_8)_3]\cdotCrO_4$의 결정구조)

  • Kim, Se-Hwan;Kim, Seung-Bin;Nam, Gung-Hae
    • Korean Journal of Crystallography
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.75-79
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    • 1995
  • The crystal structure of Tris(ethylenediamine)nickel(II)Chromate has been determined by X-ray crystallography. Crystal data : a=9.027(2)Å, c=9.751(5)Å이며, Z=2, V=687.9(2)Å3, Dc=1.714gcm-3, μ=21.635-1. The intensity were collected with Mo-Kα radiation (λ=0.7107Å) on an automatic four-circle diffractometer with a graphite monochromator. The structure was solved by Patterson method and refined by full matrix least-square methods using unit weights. The final R and S values were R=0.029, Rw=032, Rall=0.049 andS=0.018 for 342 observed reflections. The chromate ions are located at position of point of point symmetry 32 and their oxygens are sixfold disodered in an unusual way. Extensive strong hydrogen bonds between complex cations and chromatic anions are found in axial and equatorial directions.

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Assessing hydrologic impact of climate change in Jeju Island using multiple GCMs and watershed modeling (다중 GCM과 유역모델링을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 제주도의 수문학적 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Chul Gyum;Cho, Jaepil;Kim, Nam Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2018
  • The climate change impacts on hydrological components and water balance in Jeju Island were evaluated using multiple climate models and watershed model, SWAT-K. To take into account the uncertainty of the future forecast data according to climate models, climate data of 9 GCMs were utilized as weather data of SWAT-K for future period (2010-2099). Using the modeling results of the past (1992-2013) and the future period, the hydrological changes of each year were analyzed and the precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and recharge were increasing. Compared with the past, the change in the runoff was the largest (up to 50% increase) and the evapotranspiration was relatively small (up to 11% increase). Monthly results show that the amount of evapotranspiration and the amount of recharge are greatly increased as the amount of precipitation increases in August and September, while the amount of evapotranspiration decreases in the same period. January and December showed the opposite tendency. As a result of analyzing future water balance changes, the ratio of runoff, evapotranspiration, and recharge to rainfall did not change much, but compared to the past, the runoff rate increased up to 4.3% in the RCP 8.5 scenario, while the evapotranspiration rate decreased by up to 3.5%. Based on the results of other researchers and this study, it is expected that rainfall and runoff will increase gradually in the future under the assumption of present climate change scenarios. Especially summer precipitation and runoff are expected to increase. As a result, the amount of groundwater recharge in Jeju Island will increase.

A Numerical Simulation of the Interannual and Decadal Variations of the Northern Lower Stratospheric Polar Temperature (북반구 하부성층권 극기온의 경년변화와 수십년주기변화의 수치모의)

  • Choi, Wookap;Kim, Yujin;Kim, Dongjoon
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.79-91
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    • 2009
  • Seoul National University General Circulation Model (SNUGCM) has been run for 100 years to obtain daily temperature and meridional velocity at the Northern lower stratosphere. The model results are compared with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The polar temperature and the eddy heat flux from the model show that the model-produced climatology has well-known cold bias and weaker planetary wave activities. The model climatology also has a lag in the seasonal evolution. The relationship between the model-produced polar temperature and the eddy heat flux is investigated with respect to the interannual and decadal time scales. The interannual variation of the polar temperature is related with both total and stationary eddy heat flux in January and March, which is in agreement with observation. The model, however, does not reproduce the relationship between the decadal variation of the polar temperature and transient eddy heat flux, which is revealed in the observed data.

Impact of climate variability and change on crop Productivity (기후변화에 따른 작물 생산성반응과 기술적 대응)

  • Shin Jin Chul;Lee Chung Geun;Yoon Young Hwan;Kang Yang Soon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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    • 2000.11a
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    • pp.12-27
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    • 2000
  • During the recent decades, he problem of climate variability and change has been in the forefront of scientific problems. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of climate variability on crop growth and yield. The growth duration was the main impact of climate variability on crop yield. Phyllochronterval was shortened in the global worming situations. A simple model to describe developmental traits was provided from heading data of directly seeded rice cultivars and temperature data. Daily mean development rate could be explained by the average temperature during the growth stage. Simple regression equation between daily mean development rate(x) and the average temperature(y) during the growth period as y = ax + b. It can be simply modified as x = 1/a $\ast$ (y-b). The parameters of the model could depict the thermo sensitivity of the cultivars. On the base of this model, the three doubled CO2 GCM scenarios were assessed. The average of these would suggest a decline in rice production of about 11% if we maintained the current cultivars. Future cultivar's developmental traits could be suggested by the two model parameters.

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The Crystal Structure of Bis(N-Methylphenazinium) Bis(Oxalato)Palladate(Ⅱ) (Bis(N-Methylphenazinium) Bis(Oxalato)Palladate(Ⅱ)의 결정구조)

  • Kim, Se Hwan;NamGung, Hae;Lee, Hyeon Mi
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.38 no.11
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    • pp.827-832
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    • 1994
  • The crystal structure of bis(N-methylphenazinium) bis(oxalato)palladate(II) has been determined by X-ray crystallography. Crystal data: ((C_{13}H_{11}N_2)_2[Pd(C_2O_4)_2]) $M_w$ = 672.93, Triclinic, Space Group P1 (No = 2), a = 7.616(8), b = 9.842(3), c = $20.335(7)\AA$, $\alpha$ = 103.53(3), $\beta$ = 90.00(5), $\gamma$ = $112.38(5)^{\circ}$, Z = 2, $V = 1363(2){\AA}^3\;D_c = 1.639\;gcm^{-3},\;{\mu} = 7.3\;cm^{-1},\;F(000) = 680.0$. The intensity data were collected with $Mo-K\alpha$ radiation (${\lambda}$= 0.7107\;\AA)$ on an automatic four-circle diffractometer with a graphite monochromater. The structure was solved by Patterson method and refined by full matrix least-square methods using Killean & Lawrence weights. The final R and S values were $R = 0.069,\;R_w = 0.050,\;R_{all} = 0.069$ and S = 5.45 for 3120 observed reflections. Both cation and anion complexes are essentially planar and have dihedral angles of 6.3(6) and $57.06(6)^{\circ}$ between their planes. The planar complex anions are sandwiched between slightly bent cations. The interplanar separations of two triads are 3.328 and 3.463 $\AA$, respectively. The triads are stacked along b-axis, but their orientations are different based on dihedral angle $59.08(9)^{\circ}$ of two complex anions.

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Crystal Structure of the Three-dimensional Metal Complex Host in Clusion Compound [$Cd(pn)Ni(CN)_4{\cdot}0.5(CH_3COCH_3{\cdot}H_2O$) (3차원 금속 착제를 Host로 하는 포접 화합물 [$Cd(pn)Ni(CN)_4{\cdot}0.5(CH_3COCH_3{\cdot}H_2O$)의 결정구조)

  • Park, Gi Min;Lee, Uk;Am, Bon Jin Mu
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.435-441
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    • 1994
  • The inclusion compound constituted with three-dimensional metal-complex $Cd(pn)Ni(CN)_4$ has been prepared and determined the crystal structure from single crystal X-ray diffraction data. Crystal data are as follows: $[Cd(pn)Ni(CN)_4]{\cdot}0.5(CH_3COCH_3{\cdot}H_2O)$, Fw = 387.35, Orthorhombic, $Pn2_1a$, a = 13.950(3) $\AA$, b = 26.713(7) $\AA$, c = 7.628(1) $\AA$, V = 2843(1) $\AA^3$, Z = 4, $D_x=1.81 gcm^{-3}$, $\mu(MoK{\alpha})$ = $28.153 cm^{-1}$, T = 297K, final R = 0.0418 for 3521($F_0>3{\sigma}(F_0)$). The metal-complex host provides tunnel cavity, similar to thiourea inclusion compounds, accommodated guest molecules $(=CH_3COCH_3\;and\;$H_2O).$ The stoichiometric host: guest ratio is 0.5. The title inclusion compound reveals another evidence for the host-selectivity, that is, the branched aliphatic guest molecule leads T-type host structure.

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