• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.101-108
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• 2004

The results of the study include a computerized system and a systematic Process model for risk management and analysis. This study analyzes the present status of risk management in the construction industry, and then suggests reasonable methods for improved risk management plans. This study defines risk management procedures as preparation, identification, analysis, response and management to manage potential risks In the construction project. The modules for computerizing this system consist of planning, construction, application of WBS (Work Breakdown Structure) and RBS (Risk Breakdown Structure), and risk analysis. The method logy for analyzing construction risk uses fuzzy theory, and the scope of developed system is focused to the contractors. The risk management system suggested in this study operates on the Internet, for providing contractors with a useful risk management tool by online system, with web-based menus that is helpful for practical application.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.26 no.3D
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• pp.469-480
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• 2006

The results of the study include a computerized system and a systematic process model for risk management and analysis. This study analyzes the present status of risk management in the construction industry, and then suggests reasonable methods for improved risk management plans. This study defines risk management procedures as preparation, identification, analysis, response and management to manage potential risks in the construction project. The modules for computerizing in this system consist of planning, construction, application of WBS (Work Breakdown Structure) and RBS (Risk Breakdown Structure), and risk analysis. The methodology for analyzing construction risk uses fuzzy theory, and the scope of developed system is focused to the contractors. The risk management system suggested in this study operates on the Internet, for providing contractors with a useful risk management tool by online system, with web-based menus that is helpful for practical application.

• Proceedings of KOSOMES biannual meeting
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.59-64
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• 2006

In this study, the risk of SRRs was assessed upon the scale of the damage of marine accidents. For the risk assessment, inner-outer dependence methods and special knowledge-based fuzzy logic were introduced. Also, in order to calculate the importance of assessment value in this study, a max min composition method was used for fuzzy logic based on the principle of fuzzy extension and the centroid of gravity method was used for non-fuzzy formation. In order to produce the importance of assessment items, the inner-outer dependence methods were used for assessment items, and markov analysis method was used for the importance of the final comprehensive assessment. As a result, the risk of SRR of Tongyoung and Yeosu was proven relatively higher, thus, it needs to have more rescue ships and rescue devices for relieving the risk in the future.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.12 no.3 s.26
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• pp.219-224
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• 2006

In this study, the risk of SRRs was assessed upon the scale of the damage of marine accidents. For the risk assessment, inner-outer dependence methods and special knowledge-based fuzzy logic were introduced. Also, in order to calculate the importance of assessment value in this study, a max-min composition method was used for fuzzy logic based on the principle of fuzzy extension and the centroid of gravity method was used for non-fuzzy formation. In order to produce the importance of assessment items, the inner-outer dependence methods were used for assessment items, and markov analysis method was used for the importance of the final comprehensive assessment. As a result, the risk of SRR of Tongyoung, Mokpo and Yeosu was proven relatively higher, thus, it needs to have more rescue ships and rescue devices for relieving the risk in the future.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.14 no.7
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• pp.3039-3056
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• 2020

Beaches have many risk factors that cause various accidents, such as drifting and drowning, these accidents have many risk factors. To analyze them, in this paper, we identify beach risk factors, and define the criteria and correlation for each risk factor. Then, we generate new risk factors based on Fuzzy theory, and define Situation Awareness for each time. Finally, we propose a beach risk assessment and prediction model based on linear regression using the calculated risk result and pre-defined risk factors. We use national public data of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA). The results of the experiment showed the prediction accuracy of beach risk to be 0.90%, and the prediction accuracy of drifting and drowning accidents to be 0.89% and 0.86%, respectively. Also, through factor correlation analysis and risk factor assessment, the influence of each of the factors on beach risk can be confirmed. In conclusion, we confirmed that our proposed model can assess and predict beach risks.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.174-178
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• 2015

This paper presents a new method for forecasting construction project cost and time at completion or at any intermediate time horizon of the project duration. The method is designed to overcome identified limitations of current applications of earned value method in forecasting project cost and time. The proposed method usesfuzzy set theory to model uncertainties associated with project performance and it integrates the earned value technique and the contractors' judgement. The fuzzy set theory is applied as an alternative approach to deterministic and probabilistic methods. Using fuzzy set theory allows contractors to: (1) perform risk analysis for different scenarios of project performance indices, and (2) perform different scenarios expressing vagueness and imprecision of forecasted project cost and time using a set of measures and indices. Unlike the current applications of Earned Value Method(EVM), The proposed method has a numberof interesting features: (1) integrating contractors' judgement in forecasting project performance; (2) enabling contractors to evaluate the risk associated with cost overrun in much simpler method comparing with that of simulation, and (3) accounting for uncertainties involved in the forecasting project cost.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2004.06a
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• pp.1155-1162
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• 2004

This research proposes a new risk analysis method in order to guarantee successful performance of construction projects. The proposed risk analysis methods consists of four phases. First step, AHP model can help contractors decide whether or not they bid for a project by analysing risks involved in the project. Second step, the influence diagraming, decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation are used as tools to analyze and evaluate project risks quantitatively. Third step, Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess risk for groups of activities with probabilistic branching and calendars. Finally, Fuzzy theory suggests a risk management method for construction projects, which is using subjective knowledge of an expert and linguistic value, to analyze and quantify risk. The result of study is expected to improve the accuracy of risk analysis because three factors, such as probability, impact and exposure, for estimating membership function are introduced to quantify each risk factor. Consequently, it will help contractors identify risk elements in their projects and quantify the impact of risk on project time and cost.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.145-158
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• 2016

This paper introduces a risk graph which is one method for determining the SIL as a measure of the effectiveness of signaling system. The purpose of this research is to make up for the weakness of the qualitative determination, which has input value ambiguity and a boundary problem in the SIL range. The fuzzy input valuable consists of consequence, exposure, avoidance and demand rate. The fuzzy inference produces forty eight fuzzy rule by adapting the calibrated risk graph in the IEC 61511. The Max-min composition is utilized for the fuzzy inference. The result of the fuzzy inference is the fuzzy value. Therefore, using the de-fuzzification method, the result should be converted to a crisp value that can be utilized for real projects. Ultimately, the safety requirement for hazard is identified by proposing a SIL result with a tolerable hazard rate. For the validation the results of the proposed method, the fuzzy risk graph model is compared with the safety analysis of the signaling system in CENELEC SC 9XA WG A10 report.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.170-186
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• 2016

This paper introduces a multi-phase fuzzy risk graph model, representing a method for determining for SIL values for railway industry systems. The purpose of this paper is to compensate for the shortcomings of qualitative determination, which are associated with input value ambiguity and the subjectivity problem of expert judgement. The multi-phase fuzzy risk graph model has two phases. The first involves the determination of the conventional risk graph input values of the consequence, exposure, avoidance and demand rates using fuzzy theory. For the first step of fuzzification this paper proposes detailed input parameters. The fuzzy inference and the defuzzification results from the first step will be utilized as input parameters for the second step of the fuzzy model. The second step is to determine the safety integrity level and tolerable hazard rate corresponding to be identified hazard in the railway industry. To validate the results of the proposed the multi-phase fuzzy risk graph, it is compared with the results of a safety analysis of a level crossing system in the CENELEC SC 9XA WG A0 report. This model will be adapted for determining safety requirements at the early concept design stages in the railway business.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.393-402
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• 2011

Asbestos is a toxic material that can lead to lung cancer and other diseases. There is no information regarding areas in Korea that contain asbestos in nature; consequently we need to manage such areas with care. The purpose of this study was to construct a local graded map of asbestos exposure risk based on the natural occurrence of asbestos in rocks. We first developed a means of evaluating the asbestos exposure risk and produced thematic maps based on a field survey. In addition, we constructed a knowledge base for asbestos through analysis, representation and processes about asbestos data and prepare for the development of an evaluation model for asbestos exposure risk. The spatial analysis of asbestos exposure risk is based on a weighted-overlay analysis using expert opinion and the literature, and a fuzzy-overlay analysis using the uncertainty in the data. The map of asbestos exposure risk, compiled according to the weighted and fuzzy operations, is expected to be used to ensure safety and to reduce the risk of exposure to asbestos.