Proceedings of the KSR Conference (한국철도학회:학술대회논문집)
- 2004.06a
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- Pages.1155-1162
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- 2004
A Case Study on Risk Analysis of Large Construction Projects
건설공사를 위한 위험분석기법 사례연구
- Published : 2004.06.01
Abstract
This research proposes a new risk analysis method in order to guarantee successful performance of construction projects. The proposed risk analysis methods consists of four phases. First step, AHP model can help contractors decide whether or not they bid for a project by analysing risks involved in the project. Second step, the influence diagraming, decision tree and Monte Carlo simulation are used as tools to analyze and evaluate project risks quantitatively. Third step, Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess risk for groups of activities with probabilistic branching and calendars. Finally, Fuzzy theory suggests a risk management method for construction projects, which is using subjective knowledge of an expert and linguistic value, to analyze and quantify risk. The result of study is expected to improve the accuracy of risk analysis because three factors, such as probability, impact and exposure, for estimating membership function are introduced to quantify each risk factor. Consequently, it will help contractors identify risk elements in their projects and quantify the impact of risk on project time and cost.
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