• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.407-419
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• 2016

The low flow is the necessary and important index to establish national water planning, however there are lots of uncertainty in the low flow estimation. Therefore, the objectives of this study are to assess the climate change uncertainty and the effects of hydrological models on low flow estimation. The 5 RCMs (HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and RSM), 5 statistical post-processing methods and 2 hydrological models were applied for evaluation. The study area were selected as Chungju dam and Soyang river dam basin, and the 30 days minimum flow is used for the low flow evaluation. The results of the uncertainty analysis showed that the hydrological model was the largest source of uncertainty about 41.5% in the low flow projection. The uncertainty of hydrological model is higher than the other steps (RCM, statistical post-processing). Also, VIC model is more sensitive for climate change compared to SWAT model. Therefore, the hydrological model should be thoroughly reviewed for the climate change impact assessment on low flow.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.71-79
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• 2014

Climate change has been social and environmental issues, it typically indicates the trend changes of not only temperature but also rainfall. There is a need to consider climate changes in a long-term soil erosion estimation since soil loss in a watershed can be varied by the changes of rainfall intensity and frequency of torrential rainfall. The impacts of rainfall trend changes on soil loss, one of climate changes, were estimated using Sediment Assessment Tool for Effective Erosion Control (SATEEC) employing L module with current climate scenario and future climate scenario collected from the Korea Meteorological Administration. A 62 $km^2$ watershed was selected to explore the climate changes on soil loss. SATEEC provided an increasing trend of soil loss with the climate change scenarios, which were 182 ton/ha/year in 2010s, 169 ton/ha/year in 2020s, 192 ton/ha/year in 2030s,182 ton/ha/year in 2040s, and 218 ton/ha/year in 2050s. Moreover, it was found that approximately 90% of agricultural area in the watershed displayed the soil loss of 50 ton/ha/year which is exceeding the allow able soil loss regulation by the Ministry of Environment.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.57 no.5
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• pp.69-80
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• 2015

The majority of projections of future climate come from Global Circulation Models (GCMs), which vary in the way they were modeled the climate system, and so it produces different projections about conceptualizing of the weather system. To implement climate change impact assessment, it is necessary to analyze trends of various GCMs and select appropriate GCM. In this study, climate data in 25 GCMs 41 outputs provided by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was downscaled at eight stations. From preliminary analysis of variations in projected temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration, five GCM outputs were identified as candidates for the climate change impact analysis as they cover wide ranges of the variations. Also, GCM outputs are compared with trends of HadGCM3-RA, which are established by the Korean Meteorological Administration. From the results, it can contribute to select appropriate GCMs and to obtain reasonable results for the assessment of climate change.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.697-707
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• 2018

A fast running model comprising the climate change effects is proposed for urban heat environment simulations so as to be used in urban heat island studies and/or the urban planning practices. By combining Hot City Model, a high resolution urban temperature prediction model utilizing the Lagrangian particle tracing technique, and the numerical weather simulation data which are constructed up to year of 2100 under the climate change scenarios, an efficient model is constructed for simulating the future urban heat environments. It is applicable to whole city as well as to a small block area of an urban region, with the computation time being relatively short, requiring the practically manageable amount of the computational resources. The heat environments of the entire metropolitan Seoul area in South Korea are investigated with the aid of the model for the present time and for the future. The results showed that the urban temperature gradually increase up to a significant level in the future. The possible effects of green roofs on the buildings are also studied, and we observe that green roofs don't lower the urban temperature efficiently while making the temperature fields become more homogeneous.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.8
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• pp.709-720
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• 2010

This paper describes the modeling of climate change impact on drought using a conceptual soil moisture model and presents the results of the modeling approach. The future climate series is obtained by scaling the historical series, informed by CCCma CGCM3-T63 with A2 green house emission scenario, using a daily scaling method that considers changes in the future monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration as well as in the daily precipitation distribution. The majority of the modeling results indicate that there will be more frequent drought in Korea in the future.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.62-72
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• 2017

Spatio-temporal projection of evapotranspiration over croplands would be useful for assessment of climate change impact and development of adaptation strategies in agriculture. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) and dryness index (DI) during rice growing seasons were calculated using climate change scenario data provided by the National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR). A data processing tool for gridded climate data files, readGrADSWrapper, was used to calculate PET and DI during the current (1986-2005) and future (2006-2100) periods. Scripts were written to implement the formulas of PET and DI in R, which is an open source statistical data analysis tool. Evapotranspiration in rice fields ($PET_{Rice}$) was also determined using R scripts. The Spatio-temporal patterns of PET differed by regions in Korean Peninsula under current and future climate conditions. Overall, PET and $PET_{Rice}$ tended to increase throughout the $21^{st}$ century. Those results suggested that region-specific water resource managements would be needed to minimize the risk of water loss in the regions where considerable increases in PET would occur under the future climate conditions. For example, a number of provinces classified as a humid region were projected to become a sub-humid region in the future. The Spatio-temporal assessment of water resources based on PET and DI would help the development of climate change adaptation strategies for rice production in the 21st century. In addition, the studies on climate change impact would be facilitated using specialized data tools, e.g., readGrADSWrapper, for geospatial analysis of climate data.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.25-33
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• 2008

To investigate the hydrologic impacts of climate changes on dam inflow for Soyanggangdam watershed $(2694.4km^2)$ of northeastern South Korea, SLURP (Semi-distributed Land Use-based Runoff Process) model and the climate change results of CCCma CGCM2 based on SRES A2 and B2 were adopted. By the CA-Markov technique, future land use changes were estimated using the three land cover maps (1985, 1990, 2000) classified by Landsat TM satellite images. NDVI values for 2050 and 2100 land uses were estimated from the relationship of NDVI-Temperature linear regression derived from the observed data (1998-2002). Before the assessment, the SLURP model was calibrated and verified using 4 years (1998-2001) dam inflow data with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.61 to 0.77. In case of A2 scenario, the dam inflows of 2050 and 2100 decreased 49.7 % and 25.0 % comparing with the dam inflow of 2000, and in case of B2 scenario, the dam inflows of 2050 and 2100 decreased 45.3 % and 53.0 %, respectively. The results showed that the impact of land use change covered 2.3 % to 4.9 % for the dam inflow change.

• Atmosphere
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.49-61
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• 2010

Atmospheric aerosols play a crucial role for changing climate, resulting in a wide range of uncertainty for future climate prediction. In this paper we review current international research status and trend of climate-related aerosol science. There have been carried out a number of campaigns (including ACE-Asia, TRACE-P, ABC, and so on) and special experiments with some modeling studies over Korea, East Asia, and the Northwestern Pacific to characterize the various properties (physical, chemical, optical, and radiative) of Asian aerosols and evaluate their climate forcing impacts. But some parts of the aerosol research may need to be improved, advanced, or newly launched. Especially, a chemical transport model (CTM) embedded by a general circulation model (GCM) should be developed by the national scientific community with a high research priority, actively collaborating with international community in order to estimate direct and indirect global radiative forcing due to anthropogenic and natural aerosols.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.171-179
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• 2023

Due to man-made climate change, global abnormal weather phenomena have occurred, increasing disasters. Major developed countries(military) are preparing for disasters caused by extreme weather appearances. However, currently, disaster prevention plans and facilities have been implemented based on the frequency and intensity method based on statistical data, it is not enough to prepare for disasters caused by frequent extreme weather based on probability basis. The U.S. and British forces have been the fastest to take research and policy approaches related to climate change and the threat of disaster change, and are considering both climate change mitigation and adaptation. The South Korean military regards the perception of disasters to be storm and flood damage, and there is a lack of discussion on extreme weather and disasters due to climate change. In this study, the process of establishing disaster management systems in developed countries(the United States and the United Kingdom) was examined, and the response policies of each country(military) were analyzed using literature analysis techniques. In order to maintain tight security, our military should establish a response policy focusing on sustainability and resilience, and the following three policy approaches are needed. First, it is necessary to analyze the future operational environment of the Korean Peninsula in preparation for the environment that will change due to climate change. Second, it is necessary to discuss climate change 'adaptation policy' for sustainability. Third, it is necessary to prepare for future disasters that may occur due to climate change.

• Atmosphere
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.607-623
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• 2021

This study presents projections of future extreme climate over the Korean Peninsula (KP), using bias-corrected data from multiple regional climate model (RCM) simulations in CORDEX-EA Phase 2 project. In order to confirm difference according to degree of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, high GHG path of SSP5-8.5 and low GHG path of SSP1-2.6 scenario are used. Under SSP5-8.5 scenario, mean temperature and precipitation over KP are projected to increase by 6.38℃ and 20.56%, respectively, in 2081~2100 years compared to 1995~2014 years. Projected changes in extreme climate suggest that intensity indices of extreme temperatures would increase by 6.41℃ to 8.18℃ and precipitation by 24.75% to 33.74%, being bigger increase than their mean values. Both of frequency indices of the extreme climate and consecutive indices of extreme precipitation are also projected to increase. But the projected changes in extreme indices vary regionally. Under SSP1-2.6 scenario, the extreme climate indices would increase less than SSP5-8.5 scenario. In other words, temperature (precipitation) intensity indices would increase 2.63℃ to 3.12℃ (14.09% to 16.07%). And there is expected to be relationship between mean precipitation and warming, which mean precipitation would increase as warming with bigger relationship in northern KP (4.08% ℃^-1) than southern KP (3.53% ℃^-1) under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The projected relationship, however, is not significant for extreme precipitation. It seems because of complex characteristics of extreme precipitation from summer monsoon and typhoon over KP.