• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.552-561
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• 2016

For the prediction of hydrologic phenomenon, predicting future land use change is a very important task. This study aimed to compare and analyze the two land use change models, CLUE-S and SLEUTH3-R. The analysis of two models were performed based on the MSR value such that the model with more reliable MSR value can be recommended as an appropriate land use change prediction model. The model performance was examined by applying to the Gapcheon A watershed. Land use map of the study area of 2007 obtained from the Ministry of Environment was compared with the predicted land use map obtained from each of the two models. The result from both models showed somewhat similar results. The MSR value obtained from CLUE-S was 0.564, while that from SLEUTH3-R was 0.586. However, when land use map of 2010 was compared with predicted land use map obtained from the two models in same manner, the MSR value obtained from CLUE-S' was 0.500 while that from SLEUTH3-R was decreased to 0.397, an approximately 32.3% decrease from previous value of 2007. Moreover, SLEUTH3-R showed more sensitivity in conversion of urban areas, as compared to other land use types. Therefore, for the prediction of future land use change, CLUE-S model is more reliable than SLEUTH3-R.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.8
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• pp.3097-3100
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• 2015

Projections of cancer cases are particularly useful in developing countries to plan and prioritize both diagnostic and treatment facilities. In the prediction of cancer cases for the future period say after 5 years or after 10 years, it is imperative to use the knowledge of past time trends in incidence rates as well as in population at risk. In most of the recently published studies the duration for which the time trend was assessed was more than 10 years while in few studies the duration was between 5-7 years. This raises the question as to what is the optimum time period which should be used for assessment of time trends and projections. Thus, the present paper explores the suitability of different time periods to predict the future rates so that the valid projections of cancer burden can be done for India. The cancer incidence data of selected cancer sites of Bangalore, Bhopal, Chennai, Delhi and Mumbai PBCR for the period of 1991-2009 was utilized. The three time periods were selected namely 1991-2005; 1996-2005, 1999-2005 to assess the time trends and projections. For the five selected sites, each for males and females and for each registry, the time trend was assessed and the linear regression equation was obtained to give prediction for the years 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. These predictions were compared with actual incidence data. The time period giving the least error in prediction was adjudged as the best. The result of the current analysis suggested that for projections of cancer cases, the 10 years duration data are most appropriate as compared to 7 year or 15 year incidence data.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.179-188
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• 2020

The influx of marine exotic and alien species is disrupting marine ecosystems and aquaculture. Herdmania momus, reported as an invasive species, is distributed all along the coast of Jeju Island and has been confirmed to be distributed and spread to Busan. The potential habitats and distribution of H. momus were estimated using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, quantum geographic information system (QGIS), and Bio-ocean rasters for analysis of climate and environment(Bio-ORACLE), which can predict the distribution and spread based only on species occurrence data using species distribution model (SDM). Temperature and salinity were selected as environmental variables based on previous literature. Additionally, two different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were set up to estimate future and potential habitats owing to climate change. The prediction of potential habitats and distribution for H. momus using MaxEnt confirmed maximum temperature as the highest contributor(77.1%), and mean salinity, the lowest (0%). And the potential habitats and distribution of H. momus were the highest on Jeju Island, and no potential habitat or distribution was seen in the Yellow Sea. Different RCP scenarios showed that at RCP 4.5, H. momus would be distributed along the coast of Jeju Island in the year 2050 and that the distribution would expand to parts of the Korea Strait by the year 2100. RCP 8.5, the distribution in 2050 is predicted to be similar to that at RCP 4.5; however, by 2100, the distribution is predicted to expand to parts of the Korea Strait and the East Sea. This study can be utilized as basic data to effectively control the ecological injuries by H. momus by predicting its spread and distribution both at present and in the future.

• Journal of KIISE
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• v.42 no.12
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• pp.1551-1560
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• 2015

Software Reliability Growth Models (SRGMs) are used to quantitatively evaluate software reliability and to determine the software release date or additional testing efforts using software failure data. Because a single SRGM is not universally applicable to all kinds of software, the selection of an optimal SRGM suitable to a specific case has been an important issue. The existing methods for SRGM selection assess the goodness-of-fit of the SRGM in terms of the collected failure data but do not consider the accuracy of future failure predictions. In this paper, we propose a method for selecting SRGMs using the trend of failure data and failure prediction ability. To justify our approach, we identify problems associated with the existing SRGM selection methods through experiments and show that our method for selecting SRGMs is superior to the existing methods with respect to the accuracy of future failure prediction.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.91-99
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• 2009

Development of high-speed Internet services and the increased supply of mobile devices have become the key factor for the acceleration of ubiquitous technology. WiBro system, formed with lP backbone network, is a MBWA technology which provides high-speed multimedia service in a possibly broader coverage than Wireless LAN can offer. Wireless telecommunication environment needs not only mobility support in Layer 2 but also mobility management protocol in Layer 3 and has to minimize handover latency to provide seamless mobile services. In this paper, we propose a fast cross-layer handover scheme based on signal strength prediction in WiBro environment. The signal strength is measured at regular intervals and future value of the strength is predicted by Exponential Smoothing Method. With the help of the prediction, layer-3 handover activities are able to occur prior to layer-2 handover, and therefore, total handover latency is reduced. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheme predicts that future signal level accurately and reduces the total handover latency.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.417-428
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• 2021

Since future maintenance cost estimation of infrastructure involves uncertainty, it is important to make use of a failure prediction model. However, it is difficult for local governments to develop accurate failure prediction models applicable to infrastructure due to a lack of budget and expertise. Therefore, this study estimated the life expectancy of asphalt road pavement of national highways using the Bayesian Markov Mixture Hazard model. In addition, in order to accurately estimate life expectancy, environmental variables such as traffic volume, ESAL (Equivalent Single Axle Loads), SNP (Structural Number of Pavement), meteorological conditions, and de-icing material usage were applied to retain reliability of the estimation results. As a result, life expectancy was estimated from at least 13.09 to 19.61 years by region. By using this approach, it is expected that it will be possible to estimate future maintenance cost considering local failure characteristics.

• Genomics & Informatics
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.11.1-11.8
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• 2021

For the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), predictive modeling, in the literature, uses broadly susceptible exposed infected recoverd (SEIR)/SIR, agent-based, curve-fitting models. Governments and legislative bodies rely on insights from prediction models to suggest new policies and to assess the effectiveness of enforced policies. Therefore, access to accurate outbreak prediction models is essential to obtain insights into the likely spread and consequences of infectious diseases. The objective of this study is to predict the future COVID-19 situation of Korea. Here, we employed 5 models for this analysis; SEIR, local linear regression (LLR), negative binomial (NB) regression, segment Poisson, deep-learning based long short-term memory models (LSTM) and tree based gradient boosting machine (GBM). After prediction, model performance comparison was evelauated using relative mean squared errors (RMSE) for two sets of train (January 20, 2020-December 31, 2020 and January 20, 2020-January 31, 2021) and testing data (January 1, 2021-February 28, 2021 and February 1, 2021-February 28, 2021) . Except for segmented Poisson model, the other models predicted a decline in the daily confirmed cases in the country for the coming future. RMSE values' comparison showed that LLR, GBM, SEIR, NB, and LSTM respectively, performed well in the forecasting of the pandemic situation of the country. A good understanding of the epidemic dynamics would greatly enhance the control and prevention of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. Therefore, with increasing daily confirmed cases since this year, these results could help in the pandemic response by informing decisions about planning, resource allocation, and decision concerning social distancing policies.

• The Journal of Bigdata
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.127-132
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• 2021

Korea is both a resource-poor country and a energy-consuming country. In addition, the use and dependence on electricity is very high, and more than 20% of total energy use is consumed in buildings. As research on deep learning and machine learning is active, research is underway to apply various algorithms to energy efficiency fields, and the introduction of building energy management systems (BEMS) for efficient energy management is increasing. In this paper, we constructed a database based on energy usage by device per household directly collected using smart plugs. We also implement algorithms that effectively analyze and predict the data collected using RNN and LSTM models. In the future, this data can be applied to analysis of power consumption patterns beyond prediction of energy consumption. This can help improve energy efficiency and is expected to help manage effective power usage through prediction of future data.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.19 no.11
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• pp.359-364
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• 2021

Recently, research on predictive systems using deep learning and machine learning of artificial intelligence is being actively conducted. Due to the development of artificial intelligence, the role of the investment manager is being replaced by artificial intelligence, and due to the higher rate of return than the investment manager, algorithmic trading using artificial intelligence is becoming more common. Algorithmic trading excludes human emotions and trades mechanically according to conditions, so it comes out higher than human trading yields when approached in the long term. The deep learning technique of artificial intelligence learns past time series data and predicts the future, so it learns like a human and can respond to changing strategies. In particular, the LSTM technique is used to predict the future by increasing the weight of recent data by remembering or forgetting part of past data. fbprophet, an artificial intelligence algorithm recently developed by Facebook, boasts high prediction accuracy and is used to predict stock prices and cryptocurrency prices. Therefore, this study intends to establish a sound investment culture by providing a new algorithm for automatic cryptocurrency trading by analyzing the actual value and difference using fbprophet and presenting conditions for accurate prediction.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.48 no.4
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• pp.681-691
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• 2021

The estimated breeding value (EBV) and accuracy of Hanwoo steer (Korean cattle) is an indicator that can predict the slaughter time in the future and carcass performance outcomes. Recently, studies using pedigrees and genotypes are being actively conducted to improve the accuracy of the EBV. In this study, the pedigree and genotype of 46 steers obtained from livestock farm A in Gyeongnam were used for a pedigree best linear unbiased prediction (PBLUP) and a genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) to estimate and analyze the breeding value and accuracy of the carcass weight (CWT), eye muscle area (EMA), back-fat thickness (BFT), and marbling score (MS). PBLUP estimated the EBV and accuracy by constructing a numeric relationship matrix (NRM) from the 46 steers and reference population I (545,483 heads) with the pedigree and phenotype. GBLUP estimated genomic EBV (GEBV) and accuracy by constructing a genomic relationship matrix (GRM) from the 46 steers and reference population II (16,972 heads) with the genotype and phenotype. As a result, in the order of CWT, EMA, BFT, and MS, the accuracy levels of PBLUP were 0.531, 0.519, 0.524 and 0.530, while the accuracy outcomes of GBLUP were 0.799, 0.779, 0.768, and 0.810. The accuracy estimated by GBLUP was 50.1 - 53.1% higher than that estimated by PBLUP. GEBV estimated with the genotype is expected to show higher accuracy than the EBV calculated using only the pedigree and is thus expected to be used as basic data for genomic selection in the future.