Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment (한국물환경학회지)

Korean Society on Water Environment (한국물환경학회)
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Comparative Analysis of Land Use Change Model at Gapcheon Watershed

갑천 유역을 대상으로 토지이용예측모델 비교 분석

  • Kwon, PilJu (Department of Regional Infrastructures Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Ryu, Jichul (Watershed and Total Load Management Research Division, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Lee, Dong Jun (Department of Regional Infrastructures Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Han, Jeongho (Department of Regional Infrastructures Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Sung, Yunsoo (Department of Regional Infrastructures Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Lim, Kyoung Jae (Department of Regional Infrastructures Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kim, Ki-Sung (Department of Regional Infrastructures Engineering, Kangwon National University)
  • 권필주 (강원대학교 지역건설공학과) ;
  • 류지철 (국립환경과학원 유역총량연구과) ;
  • 이동준 (강원대학교 지역건설공학과) ;
  • 한정호 (강원대학교 지역건설공학과) ;
  • 성윤수 (강원대학교 지역건설공학과) ;
  • 임경재 (강원대학교 지역건설공학과) ;
  • 김기성 (강원대학교 지역건설공학과)
  • Received : 2016.07.25
  • Accepted : 2016.11.21
  • Published : 2016.11.30
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Abstract

For the prediction of hydrologic phenomenon, predicting future land use change is a very important task. This study aimed to compare and analyze the two land use change models, CLUE-S and SLEUTH3-R. The analysis of two models were performed based on the MSR value such that the model with more reliable MSR value can be recommended as an appropriate land use change prediction model. The model performance was examined by applying to the Gapcheon A watershed. Land use map of the study area of 2007 obtained from the Ministry of Environment was compared with the predicted land use map obtained from each of the two models. The result from both models showed somewhat similar results. The MSR value obtained from CLUE-S was 0.564, while that from SLEUTH3-R was 0.586. However, when land use map of 2010 was compared with predicted land use map obtained from the two models in same manner, the MSR value obtained from CLUE-S' was 0.500 while that from SLEUTH3-R was decreased to 0.397, an approximately 32.3% decrease from previous value of 2007. Moreover, SLEUTH3-R showed more sensitivity in conversion of urban areas, as compared to other land use types. Therefore, for the prediction of future land use change, CLUE-S model is more reliable than SLEUTH3-R.

Keywords

References

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