• Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.15-23
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• 2012

Today, rapid changes in technologies and everyday lives due to the Internet make it is difficult to make predictions about the future. Generally, the best way to predict the future has been proposed by experts. Although expert opinions are very important, they are liable to produce incorrect results due to human error, insufficient information regarding future outcomes and a state of connectedness between people, among other reasons. One of the ways to reduce these mistakes is to provide objective information to the experts. There are many studies that focus on the collection of objective material from papers, patents, reports and the Internet, among other sources. This research paper seeks to develop a forecasting method using World Wide Web search results according to the Google search engine and a network analysis, which is generally used to analyze a social network analysis(SNA). In particular, this paper provides a method to analyze a complexity network and to discover important technologies in the construction field. This approach may make it possible to enhance the overall performance of forecasting method and help us understand the complex system.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.121-132
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• 2006

Every country of the world have made their desirable future by improving the methodology of technology forecasting with priority, selection and concentration, despite the limited budget. About 20 years have passed since Defense S&T forecasting has been initiated but supplier-centered technology forecasting has caused the lack of usefulness for the customers. Therefore, we will search and offer technologies that customers need, based on the methodology of technology foresight that has started in England. It is a real value of Defense S&T forecasting that will help our nation, a smaller and weaker country compared to our neighboring countries, has a secure future and prosperity. For this consideration, 8 directions of the development for Defense S&T forecasting are suggested.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.61-86
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• 2010

This research analyzed on the future energy society of Korea in 2030 using system thinking approach. Key uncertainty factors determining the future energy society were analyzed in a multi disciplinary view point such as politics, economy, society, ecology and technology. Three causal loop diagrams for the future energy system in Korea and related policy leverages were shown as well. 'Global economic trends', 'change of industrial structure' and 'energy price' were identified as key uncertainty factors determining the Korean energy future. Three causal loop diagrams named as 'rate of energy self－sufficiency and alternative energy production', 'economic activity and energy demand' and 'Excavation of new growth engines' were developed. We integrated those causal loop diagrams into one to understand the entire energy system of the future, proposed three strategic scenarios(optimistic, pessimistic and most likely) and discussed implications and limits of this research.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.245-261
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• 1998

This study aims to describe the overall aspects of future technologies in Korea based on the new taxonomy of technology foresight ; Theme, Area and Paradigm. This taxonomy is designed to overcome and supplement several studies on technology foresights which are judged not to capture the whole aspects of future technologies. Future technologies in Korea will be influenced by the Information and Communication Technology Paradigm over 20-30 years, and by the Biotechnology Paradigm after that period. Expansion of researches in electronics, information and communication is noticeable features in engineering. The application of biotechnology technique and health/environment technologies are emerging in bioscience area. Also there appear new areas related to the trends of engineering and bioscience in natural science. Current research patterns focusing physics, chemistry and engineering in Korea should be changed to those of the advanced countries which emphasize bioscience. Time lag to the world frontier is over 5-6 years, but the lag is expected to be reduced. The shortage of manpower and research funds are pointed as the biggest barrier for the realization of future technologies.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.1-28
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• 2012

This study conducted a qualitative analysis on the Korea's nuclear energy sector in 2030 through scenario-based strategic foresight method. Specifically, the relationships between environmental influencing factors of the future nuclear energy sector was examined from a multi-dimensional perspective on the basis of STEEP analysis and network analysis. In addition, scenario planning method was used with key uncertainty factors (KUF) to create three predictable strategic scenarios including optimistic, business as usual, and pessimistic. Common strategies that need to be urgently pursued as well as the maximum risk avoidance strategies for each scenario were also presented. This study further identified energy pricing, global economic trend, competitiveness in nuclear technology, and marketing capability as key uncertainty factors in the future nuclear energy industry sector. In order to furnish effective export strategy in the future nuclear energy sector, it was also suggested that government policy should adopt following measures as top priorities: securing nuclear safety technology, educating nuclear engineers, securing nuclear resources such as uranium, increasing nuclear capability and so on. The implications and limitations of this study were then discussed based on research findings.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.233-244
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• 2017

This study seeks to analyze the needs of biotechnology companies in relation to their entry into the marine biotechnology industry and to discuss the policy implications associated with empirical tasks based on issues raised from empirical results gathered from a survey data of 200 biotechnology companies in Korea. This study made a comparison between marine and non-marine biotechnology companies and analyzed non-marine biotechnology companies' needs related to their entry into the marine biotechnology companies by using Social Network Analysis (SNA). Empirical results indicate that 23.5% of biotechnology companies produce goods using marine bio-resources. Once the utility of marine bio-resources is established, 58.8% of non-marine biotechnology companies intend to enter the marine biotechnology industry. This study also shows that non-marine biotechnology companies need technical support, information sharing, and the acquisition of raw materials to enter the marine biotechnology industry. The findings in this study provide important pointers for the direction of policies and future research in the area of marine biotechnology industry.

• Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.211-212
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• 2016

기술예측이란 전략적 연구개발 분야 및 미래유망기술 도출을 위해 장기적인 과학, 기술, 경제, 사회 현상을 조사하기 위한 과정이다. 미래 기술예측의 효과적 추진을 위해 체계적인 방법론과 프로세스를 개발 적용하여 미래 기술의 수용성과 예측성, 참신성을 높일 수 있는 방법으로 인간의 6가지 감각을 기반으로 한 미래 기술예측조사 및 유망기술의 발굴 및 선정을 위한 새로운 접근방식으로써 예측조사 프레임워크를 제안한다.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.29-48
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• 2012

As the complexity and uncertainty of social and economic systems increase, the strategic foresight that actively and effectively responds to the environmental changes becomes important. A wide range of future forecasting methods are available for strategic foresight. Selecting one of the methods depends on several factors such as availability of time and financial resources and the objectives of the exercise. Although trend extrapolation analysis has been used for many years, scenario planning is being widely used by government and corporate as a tool for strategic decision making in recent years. Generally, scenario planning is carried out through workshop, in which experts with diverse backgrounds exchange information, views, and insights and integrate the diverse viewpoints. However, only a small number of experts can participate in a workshop and citizen opinion is not easily transformed into the policy for the scenario exercise due to the limitation of budget and short duration of a project. It is also much harder to develop creative ideas in the workshop because of the limited time and space. In this study, a new scenario process combining scenario workshop and wiki is proposed to overcome the limitation of scenario workshop. This combined approach can be more productive than using scenario workshop alone when developing new ideas. In this study, we applied the combined approach to develop scenarios for the strategic foresight of future media and present suggestions for improving the process.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.215-237
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• 2008

As the paradigm of communications changes from technology-centered service provision to human-centric services, the future wireless communication systems is expected to be able to provide user-centric customized and optimized services. In order to cope with such paradigm shift in communications, various research activities on next generation mobile communication systems are being carried by a number of international organization and research centers to take initiative in future ubiquitous wireless communication environment. In this paper we propose a generic research and development framework consisting of four different research and development phases, a vision and strategy establishment phase, a service development phase, a service reference model creation phase and future service foresight phase. In particular, we give prospect of future ubiquitous wireless communication services covering different service areas of future life style based on our research frameworks.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.95-116
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• 2013

AMOREPACIFIC has rapidly grown to become a successful global brand by persistently seeking and achieving success in foreign markets. In 2011, AMOREPACIFIC was ranked as one of the global top 20 cosmetics companies. What makes AMOREPACIFIC's global success noteworthy is that AMOREPACIFIC challenged the France and the US market, where competition level is the toughest. Lolita Lempicka, AMOREPACIFIC's perfume brand, was chosen as one of the top seven most popular brands in the women's perfume market in France. In addition, Amorepacific, AMOREPACIFIC's namesake skincare brand, is currently recognized as a top prestige brand in the USA. Their success played a significant role as a bridgehead for AMOREPACIFIC in becoming a global cosmetics company. The main object of this case study is to analyze how AMOREPACIFIC became a global cosmetic company through building key brands such as Lolita Lempicka and Amorepafic, among others. Therefore, this study reviewed AMOREPACIFIC's unconventional approach in launching Lolita Lempicka in France, and Amorepacific in the US by focusing on how they foresaw the future opportunities and employed innovative marketing strategies. Specifically, we focused on Amorepacific's marketing strategy under the critical period when AMOREPACIFIC achieved great success in France with Lolita Lempicka (between 1997 and 2004) and in US with the brand, Amorepacific (2003-2008). The case of AMOREPACIFIC's success in the global markets can give valuable lessons to companies that want to extend their businesses to foreign countries and ultimately become global. One such lesson is the importance of building a successful pioneer brand in a powerful bridgehead market. While domestic competitors first entered into less competitive markets such as those in South-East Asia, AMOREPACIFIC challenged the toughest markets such as the French and US markets where the incumbent companies waged the most intensive and severe battles against Lolita Lempick and Amorepacific. Through the success in France and US market, however, AMOREPACIFIC built a powerful base for its successful global expansion. Another valuable lesson is the importance of foresight in uncovering great opportunities hidden behind the trends without losing focus on the brand's core character and values. Lolita Lempicka and Amorepacific showed excellence in foresight competition, which led them to succeed against the intense competition from Goliath companies. If Lolita Lempicka and Amorepacific had just followed the popular market trend at the time, they would have never succeeded.