• Title/Summary/Keyword: Foresight

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Research of Foresight Knowledge by CMAC based Q-learning in Inhomogeneous Multi-Agent System

  • Hoshino, Yukinobu;Sakakura, Akira;Kamei, Katsuari
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 2003.09a
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    • pp.280-283
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    • 2003
  • A purpose of our research is an acquisition of cooperative behaviors in inhomogeneous multi-agent system. In this research, we used the fire panic problem as an experiment environment. In Fire panic problem a fire exists in the environment, and follows in each steps of agent's behavior, and this fire spreads within the constant law. The purpose of the agent is to reach the goal established without touching the fire, which exists in the environment. The fire heat up by a few steps, which exists in the environment. The fire has unsureness to the agent. The agent has to avoid a fire, which is spreading in environment. The acquisition of the behavior to reach it to the goal is required. In this paper, we observe how agents escape from the fire cooperating with other agents. For this problem, we propose a unique CMAC based Q-learning system for inhomogeneous multi-agent system.

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Future Technologies in Korea (한국의 미래기술)

  • 설성수
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.245-261
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    • 1998
  • This study aims to describe the overall aspects of future technologies in Korea based on the new taxonomy of technology foresight ; Theme, Area and Paradigm. This taxonomy is designed to overcome and supplement several studies on technology foresights which are judged not to capture the whole aspects of future technologies. Future technologies in Korea will be influenced by the Information and Communication Technology Paradigm over 20-30 years, and by the Biotechnology Paradigm after that period. Expansion of researches in electronics, information and communication is noticeable features in engineering. The application of biotechnology technique and health/environment technologies are emerging in bioscience area. Also there appear new areas related to the trends of engineering and bioscience in natural science. Current research patterns focusing physics, chemistry and engineering in Korea should be changed to those of the advanced countries which emphasize bioscience. Time lag to the world frontier is over 5-6 years, but the lag is expected to be reduced. The shortage of manpower and research funds are pointed as the biggest barrier for the realization of future technologies.

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Agent-Based Modeling for Studying the Impact of Capacity Mechanisms on Generation Expansion in Liberalized Electricity Market

  • Dahlan, N.Y.
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.1460-1470
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    • 2015
  • This paper presents an approach to solve the long-term generation expansion planning problem of the restructured electricity industry using an agent-based environment. The proposed model simulates the generation investment decisions taken by a particular agent (i.e. a generating company) in a market environment taking into account its competitors’ strategic investment. The investment decision of a particular company is modeled taking into account that such company has imperfect foresight on the future system development hence electricity prices. The delay in the construction of new plants is also explicitly modeled, in order to compute accurately the yearly revenues of each agent. On top of a conventional energy market, several capacity incentive mechanisms including capacity payment and capacity market are simulated, so as to assess their impact on the investment promotion for generation expansion. Results provide insight on the investment cycles as well as dynamic system behavior of long-term generation expansion planning in a competitive electricity industry.

기술혁신과 미래 숙련 : 그린카 발전을 중심으로

  • Hwang, Gyu-Hui;Lee, Jung-Man
    • Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.24-40
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    • 2010
  • 탄소배출에 대한 글로벌 규제 확대는 새로운 산업규제와 무역장벽을 가져오고 있으며, 세계 각국은 재생에너지 개발, 에너지 효율 증대, 환경 개선 등을 동시에 추구하는 녹색투자를 통해 경기부양을 도모하고 있다. 한국 정부는 이러한 환경변화 속에 녹색투자를 통한 새로운 성장기회를 모색하고 있으며, 기업은 저탄소 친환경구조로의 전환을 생존의 문제로 직면하게 되었다. 이는 산업구조의 변화와 전환을 가져올 뿐만 아니라, 인력 구성의 변화와 요구숙련의 변화를 요구한다. 이러한 녹색경제로의 전환에서, 미래 숙련수요에 대응한 인력양성은 녹색경제의 전환에 대한 대응으로서 뿐만 아니라 녹색성장을 견인하는 추동력이 된다. 본 연구는 자동차산업을 중심으로 미래 숙련 수요에 따른 인력양성 방안을 모색한다. 그린카 관련한 미래 숙련 수요에 대해 현 대학교과상의 문제점을 살펴보며 이에 대한 개선방안을 모색하기로 한다. 이를 통해 녹색성장에서 그린카 이외의 타 부문에서의 미래 숙련 수요에 대응한 인력양성 방안을 마련하는 방법론의 개선을 도모한다.

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A study on the Development of the Device for Portable Safety Diagnosis and Dynamic Characteristics Analysis of Elevator using Fuzzy Algorithm (Fuzzy 알고리즘을 이용한 엘리베이터 포터블 안전진단 및 동특성 분석장치 개발)

  • 김태형;김훈모
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 2000.11a
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    • pp.123-126
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    • 2000
  • An elevator system which is a essential equipment for a vertical movement of object, as a property of building, have been drove by various expenditure and purpose. Since developing electrical control technology, control systems are highly developed. An elevator equipment is expended to wide, but a data accuracy acquisition technique and safety predict technique for securing system safety is still basic level. So, objective verification for elevator confidence condition is required absolutely accuracy measurement technique. Therefore, this study is accomplished in order to conquer a method of depending on sense of a manager with a simple numeric measurement data, and construct a logical, analytical foresight system for more efficient elevator management system.

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An Empirical Study of influence Factor to TPM Performance in medium and small enterprises (중소기업 TPM 성과에 영향을 주는 요인에 대한 실증적 연구)

  • Choi, Moo-Ho;Ree, Sang-Bok
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.449-462
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    • 2010
  • In this Paper, We analyzed influence Factor to TPM Performance in medium and small enterprises by empirically. By Literature survey, We hypothesize education training and 5S influence to individual improvement, independence maintenance, planning and foresight, which also influence to flexibility, total equipment performance, quality, which finally influence to lower cost, delivery date. To analyze empirically, we survey questionnaire in medium and small enterprises being below 300 people. From statistical analysis, 7 hypotheses are rejected, which is different existing research. This is analyzed that reflect actuality that medium and small enterprises is different from large enterprises. We expect that result of this treatise does concentration effort in important factor to get TPM performance in medium and small enterprises.

A Research on the Prospect for the Future Energy Society in Korea: Focused on the Complementary Analysis of AHP and Causal Loop Diagram (한국의 미래 에너지사회 전망에 관한 연구 : 계층분석법과 인과지도의 보완적 분석을 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Byung-Yong;Choi, Han-Lim;Ahn, Nam-Sung
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.61-86
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    • 2010
  • This research analyzed on the future energy society of Korea in 2030 using system thinking approach. Key uncertainty factors determining the future energy society were analyzed in a multi disciplinary view point such as politics, economy, society, ecology and technology. Three causal loop diagrams for the future energy system in Korea and related policy leverages were shown as well. 'Global economic trends', 'change of industrial structure' and 'energy price' were identified as key uncertainty factors determining the Korean energy future. Three causal loop diagrams named as 'rate of energy self-sufficiency and alternative energy production', 'economic activity and energy demand' and 'Excavation of new growth engines' were developed. We integrated those causal loop diagrams into one to understand the entire energy system of the future, proposed three strategic scenarios(optimistic, pessimistic and most likely) and discussed implications and limits of this research.

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Challenges in Green Innovation Policy after the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

  • Wada, Tomoaki
    • STI Policy Review
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.135-161
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    • 2013
  • This paper examines Japan's Science and Technology (S&T) Basic Plans in accordance with its S&T Basic Law. The Basic Plans promote two major innovation (Green Innovation and Life Innovation) towards the creation of new markets and jobs, specifically under the Fourth S&T Basic Plan enacted on August 2011. Successful smart community demonstration projects at four urban localities were launched under plans to promote Green Innovation research and development of renewable energy technologies. However, the expectation that renewable energy such as solar or wind power can replace nuclear power is not backed by sufficient evidence. Furthermore, the electricity produced by these sources is expensive and unstable owing to its reliance on weather conditions. The Fukushima nuclear power plant accident on March 2011 has also seriously affected Japan's future energy plans. According to a government estimate, electricity charges would double if nuclear power generation were abandoned, imposing a heavy burden on the Japanese economy. Japan is in need of energy policies designed on the basis of more far-sighted initiatives.

Comparison on technology foresight studies by Korea government (정부의 과학기술기반 미래전략 연구에 대한 비교)

  • Yoo, Byun Un;Ahn, Sang-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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    • 2017.11a
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    • pp.1565-1579
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구에서는 과학기술기반 미래전략연구의 세대별 특징을 기준으로 우리나라 정부의 과학기술 주무부처에서 발표한 과학기술기반 미래전략 보고서 및 특징을 검토하였다. 비교분석한 결과 우리나라 과학기술기반 미래전략 연구의 내용은 초기부터 선진국의 그것과 유사한 형태로 진행되었지만, 수행체계는 엘리트 중심으로 국민을 계몽하는 문화로 남아있음을 알 수 있었다. 아울러 최근 과학기술기반 미래전략에서 국가가 주도하여 경제를 발전시키는 패러다임이 점차 약화되는 경향성이 두드러지는 트렌드와 함께, 과거에 비하여 과학기술기반 미래전략 연구의 실행력이 낮아지는 추세를 확인할 수 있었다. 이처럼 최근 과학기술기반 미래전략에서 나타나는 한계점을 극복하기 위해, 과학기술기반 미래전략 연구가 집행실효성을 담보해주는 정책도구로 변신해야함을 피력하였다.

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A Study on the Disaster Management R&D of the US and Japan (미국과 일본의 사례를 통해서 본 재난 분야 정부 R&D의 특징)

  • Lee, Juyoung;Choi, Sumin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.123-129
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    • 2016
  • Through two case studies on the United States and Japan, this research aims to identify the characteristics of disaster management research and thereby provides policy implications for Korea. This paper analyzed government-funded disaster management R&D for each country: the National Science Foundation awarded projects from 2005 to 2015 for the United States, and Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research from 2011 to 2015 managed by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science for Japan. As a result, four following implications were drawn. 1) pursuit of R&SD(Research & Solution Development) instead of R&D, 2) shift from prevention to life-cycle management, 3) necessity of multidisciplinary research, and 4) emphasis on post-disaster investigation.