• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.98-107
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• 2008

As the information and communications market goes more uncertain, foresight activities becomes more important. A number of foresight activities, such as trend analysis, have been used to predict customer needs. However previous studies tend to lack objectivity and systematization. In this study, we suggest a meta analysis methodology which combines both top-down and bottom-up approach in order to systematize the analysis process. Secondly, we applied this approach to ICT market to identify essential future technologies. Based on the result from the meta analysis, we have constructed the future technology roadmap.

• Proceedings of the Korea Society for Industrial Systems Conference
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• 2008.10b
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• pp.104-112
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• 2008

As the information and communications market goes more uncertain, foresight activities becomes more important. A number of foresight activities, such as trend analysis, have been used to predict customer needs. However previous studies tend to lack objectivity and systematization. In this study, we suggest a meta analysis methodology which combines both top-down and bottom-up approach in order to systematize the analysis process. Secondly, we applied this approach to ICT market to identify essential future technologies. Based on the result from the meta analysis, we have constructed the future technology roadmap.

• Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.15-23
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• 2012

Today, rapid changes in technologies and everyday lives due to the Internet make it is difficult to make predictions about the future. Generally, the best way to predict the future has been proposed by experts. Although expert opinions are very important, they are liable to produce incorrect results due to human error, insufficient information regarding future outcomes and a state of connectedness between people, among other reasons. One of the ways to reduce these mistakes is to provide objective information to the experts. There are many studies that focus on the collection of objective material from papers, patents, reports and the Internet, among other sources. This research paper seeks to develop a forecasting method using World Wide Web search results according to the Google search engine and a network analysis, which is generally used to analyze a social network analysis(SNA). In particular, this paper provides a method to analyze a complexity network and to discover important technologies in the construction field. This approach may make it possible to enhance the overall performance of forecasting method and help us understand the complex system.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.29-48
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• 2012

As the complexity and uncertainty of social and economic systems increase, the strategic foresight that actively and effectively responds to the environmental changes becomes important. A wide range of future forecasting methods are available for strategic foresight. Selecting one of the methods depends on several factors such as availability of time and financial resources and the objectives of the exercise. Although trend extrapolation analysis has been used for many years, scenario planning is being widely used by government and corporate as a tool for strategic decision making in recent years. Generally, scenario planning is carried out through workshop, in which experts with diverse backgrounds exchange information, views, and insights and integrate the diverse viewpoints. However, only a small number of experts can participate in a workshop and citizen opinion is not easily transformed into the policy for the scenario exercise due to the limitation of budget and short duration of a project. It is also much harder to develop creative ideas in the workshop because of the limited time and space. In this study, a new scenario process combining scenario workshop and wiki is proposed to overcome the limitation of scenario workshop. This combined approach can be more productive than using scenario workshop alone when developing new ideas. In this study, we applied the combined approach to develop scenarios for the strategic foresight of future media and present suggestions for improving the process.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.95-116
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• 2013

AMOREPACIFIC has rapidly grown to become a successful global brand by persistently seeking and achieving success in foreign markets. In 2011, AMOREPACIFIC was ranked as one of the global top 20 cosmetics companies. What makes AMOREPACIFIC's global success noteworthy is that AMOREPACIFIC challenged the France and the US market, where competition level is the toughest. Lolita Lempicka, AMOREPACIFIC's perfume brand, was chosen as one of the top seven most popular brands in the women's perfume market in France. In addition, Amorepacific, AMOREPACIFIC's namesake skincare brand, is currently recognized as a top prestige brand in the USA. Their success played a significant role as a bridgehead for AMOREPACIFIC in becoming a global cosmetics company. The main object of this case study is to analyze how AMOREPACIFIC became a global cosmetic company through building key brands such as Lolita Lempicka and Amorepafic, among others. Therefore, this study reviewed AMOREPACIFIC's unconventional approach in launching Lolita Lempicka in France, and Amorepacific in the US by focusing on how they foresaw the future opportunities and employed innovative marketing strategies. Specifically, we focused on Amorepacific's marketing strategy under the critical period when AMOREPACIFIC achieved great success in France with Lolita Lempicka (between 1997 and 2004) and in US with the brand, Amorepacific (2003-2008). The case of AMOREPACIFIC's success in the global markets can give valuable lessons to companies that want to extend their businesses to foreign countries and ultimately become global. One such lesson is the importance of building a successful pioneer brand in a powerful bridgehead market. While domestic competitors first entered into less competitive markets such as those in South-East Asia, AMOREPACIFIC challenged the toughest markets such as the French and US markets where the incumbent companies waged the most intensive and severe battles against Lolita Lempick and Amorepacific. Through the success in France and US market, however, AMOREPACIFIC built a powerful base for its successful global expansion. Another valuable lesson is the importance of foresight in uncovering great opportunities hidden behind the trends without losing focus on the brand's core character and values. Lolita Lempicka and Amorepacific showed excellence in foresight competition, which led them to succeed against the intense competition from Goliath companies. If Lolita Lempicka and Amorepacific had just followed the popular market trend at the time, they would have never succeeded.

• Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.211-212
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• 2016

기술예측이란 전략적 연구개발 분야 및 미래유망기술 도출을 위해 장기적인 과학, 기술, 경제, 사회 현상을 조사하기 위한 과정이다. 미래 기술예측의 효과적 추진을 위해 체계적인 방법론과 프로세스를 개발 적용하여 미래 기술의 수용성과 예측성, 참신성을 높일 수 있는 방법으로 인간의 6가지 감각을 기반으로 한 미래 기술예측조사 및 유망기술의 발굴 및 선정을 위한 새로운 접근방식으로써 예측조사 프레임워크를 제안한다.

• The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.285-317
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• 2008

To accept the doctor's professional negligence in the medical malpractice, the mistakes, by which the doctor did not foresee the production of the results in spite of the possibility of foresight and did not avoid the production of the results in spite of the possibility of avoidance, must be considered, and to decide the presence of the doctor's professional negligence, the standard must be the attention standard of general-common doctor engaged in the same business and the same function, and the medical enviornments, the conditions, the extraordinary nature of medical behavior, and etc should be considered by the general level of medical science at the time of accident. This principlel must be applied to the medical malpractice case occurred being on duty without exception. But, because of the extraordinary nature of duty work, it is difficult for any doctor to do one's best technical practice by making all diagnosis, medical treatment with all the equipment on the same plane as the ordinary times. That cannot be also expected for any doctor to do one's best technical practice in the terms of a social idea. From this point of view looking into The Precedent case related to Medical-service person being on duty sentenced by The Supreme Court, unlike the general medical malpractice case, the presence of the professional negligence in the medical malpractice occurred being on duty seems to be decided with more consideration on the general level of medical science, the medical enviornments and the conditions, particularities of medical practice at the time of accident. Especially, the extraordinary nature of medical behavior of the medical service person being on duty in the emergency room seems to be admitted compared to that of the medical service person being on duty in ward.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.1-28
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• 2012

This study conducted a qualitative analysis on the Korea's nuclear energy sector in 2030 through scenario-based strategic foresight method. Specifically, the relationships between environmental influencing factors of the future nuclear energy sector was examined from a multi-dimensional perspective on the basis of STEEP analysis and network analysis. In addition, scenario planning method was used with key uncertainty factors (KUF) to create three predictable strategic scenarios including optimistic, business as usual, and pessimistic. Common strategies that need to be urgently pursued as well as the maximum risk avoidance strategies for each scenario were also presented. This study further identified energy pricing, global economic trend, competitiveness in nuclear technology, and marketing capability as key uncertainty factors in the future nuclear energy industry sector. In order to furnish effective export strategy in the future nuclear energy sector, it was also suggested that government policy should adopt following measures as top priorities: securing nuclear safety technology, educating nuclear engineers, securing nuclear resources such as uranium, increasing nuclear capability and so on. The implications and limitations of this study were then discussed based on research findings.

• (The) Research of the performance art and culture
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• no.32
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• pp.465-488
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• 2016

This paper attempts to read in different ways and to interpret newly on Cheoyongrang mhang-hae-sa in "Sam-guk-yu-sa". Ulsan have held Cheoyong Cultural Festival for 47 times according to "Sam-guk-yu-sa". However, there have been a frequent identity crisis about Cheoyong Cultural Festival because of controversial issue about Cheoyong, This paper interpretate Cheoyongrang mhang-hae-sa newly to overcome these crisis, Cheoyong's dancing and retreating was not the resignation and tolerance, but the treat and warning, as the dance of Namsansin god of Posukjeong, Buk-acksin god of Keumkangryung and Jisin god of Dongryejeon was the warning of Silla's ruination. 'The Mhang' of Mhang-he-sa temple should be interpreted not as 'watch' but 'fifteen days'. Mhang-he means the roads buried in darkness and vanished had become a sea. The name of Shin-bhang-sa temple means Gae-un-po province of Ulsan had become 'the newly purified region' because of the inspection of King Heon-ghang. The main keyword of Cheoyongrang mhang-hae-sa is 'Byuk-sa-jin-gyung'. 'Byuk-sa-jin-gyung' means to repel the impious and pray the pleasure. The purpose of the personal Gut and national Gut, Narae, was also 'Byuk-sa-jin-gyung'. The reinvented bridal room with a fresh life was like the world of Byuk-sa-jin-gyung. The dance of God Sa-bhang was, as well the desperate desire to New Silla. Cheoyong was a shaman with a superior authority who set up the power to foresee to the god of smallpox. The image of Cheoyong at is not the resignation and tolerance, but the foresight and authority. Therefore, the slogan of Cheoyong Cultural Festival, the resignation and tolerance, should be reexamined. The new Cheoyong Cultural Festival should adopt the concept of foresight and authority and Byuk-sa-jin-gyung. Cheoyong Cultural Festival, have been held for 49times, often had identity problems. The identity of Cheoyong have been misinterpreted as the resignation and tolerance. The slogan of Cheoyong Cultural Festival should be reexamined. The new Cheoyong Cultural Festival should adopt the concept of foresight and authority and Byuk-sa-jin-gyung.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.100-110
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• 2003

Equipment replacement policy may not be defined with certainty, because physical states of any technological system may not be determined with foresight. This paper presents Markov Decision Process(MDP) model for army equipment which is subject to the uncertainty of deterioration and ultimately to failure. The components of the MDP model is defined as follows: ⅰ) state is identified as the age of the equipment, ⅱ) actions are classified as 'keep' and 'replace', ⅲ) cost is defined as the expected cost per unit time associated with 'keep' and 'replace' actions, ⅳ) transition probability is derived from Weibull distribution. Using the MDP model, we can determine the optimal replacement policy for an army equipment replacement problem.