• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.417-440
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• 2020

The coronavirus pandemic of 2019-20 confronted fiscally dominant regimes around the world with the question of whether the large deficits caused by the health crisis should be monetized or financed by issuing debt. The unpleasant monetarist arithmetic of Sargent and Wallace (1981) states that in a fiscally dominant regime tighter money now can cause higher inflation in the future. In spite of the qualifier 'unpleasant,' this result is positive in nature, and, therefore, void of normative content. I analyze conditions under which it is optimal in a welfare sense for the central bank to delay inflation by issuing debt to finance part of the fiscal deficit. The analysis is conducted in the context of a model in which the aforementioned monetarist arithmetic holds, in the sense that if the government finds it optimal to delay inflation, it does so knowing that it would result in higher inflation in the future. The central result of the paper is that delaying inflation is optimal when the fiscal deficit is expected to decline over time.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제44권1호
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• pp.1-47
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• 2022

This paper introduces a politico-economic model with a welfare state and immigration. In this model, policies on taxes and immigration are determined through a plurality voting system. While many studies of fiscal implications of immigration argue that relaxing immigration policies can substitute for tax reforms in an aging economy, I show that the democratic voting procedure can dampen the effect of relaxing immigration policies as desired policy reforms are not always implemented by the winner of an election. This political economy results in three types of social welfare losses. First, the skill composition is not balanced at a socially efficient level because workers are motivated to maximize their wages. Second, older retirees implement excessive taxes to maximize the size of the welfare state. Third, the volume of immigration is lower than the optimal level given the incentive by young workers to regain political power in the future.

• STI Policy Review
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.1-15
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• 2016

This study provides empirical evidences for the relationship between income inequality and economic growth, and relationship of income inequality with some of explanatory variables such as technological innovation, trade globalization, financial globalization and fiscal policy. We find out that income inequality has an adverse effect on economic growth, showing its dynamic features, for which we employed the polynomial distributed lags (PDL) model. The effect of income inequality on economic growth lasts over 9 years, and its dynamic effect peaks after 4 years. In addition, we also attempted to find out empirical evidences of sources of income inequality. The results show that income inequality is positively related to technological innovation, financial globalization, and fiscal policy; negatively related to the trade globalization. Many studies employ cross-country data, but it could have serious problems in collecting statistical data. Korean data is used over the time period of 1990-2015 in this study.

• 정보화정책
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.95-111
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• 2021

데이터 기반 정책의사결정시스템 구현을 목표로 현재 기획재정부는 관련 추진단을 구성하여 활발히 구축 중에 있다. 본 시스템은 현재 단순 재정행정업무 지원을 벗어나 데이터 기반의 재정업무가 가능하도록 구축 중이다. 미국은 증거 기반의 정책의사 결정법을 제정하여 관련 업무를 적극 추진 중이다. 우리나라도 작년부터 데이터기반 행정법이 시행되어 데이터 기반 행정업무를 할 수 있도록 법제도적 근거가 마련되었다. 차세대 예산회계시스템이 데이터 기반의 시스템으로 그 역할을 다하려면 많은 정책과 노력이 필요하다. 데이터 관리, 법제도, 관련 시스템 구축 등 다양한 부분에서 혁신과 변화가 필요하다. 이런 상황에서 우리나라보다 먼저 재정시스템을 구축하여 운영하고 있는 미국, 영국 등 세계 선진국의 재정시스템과 정책을 거버넌스 차원에서 비교 분석하는 것은 매우 시기적절하다고 볼 수 있다. 이들의 재정정보시스템을 비교 분석하여 차세대 예산회계시스템에 적용한다면 한층 더 나은 시스템이 될 것으로 기대한다. 본 연구에서는 미국, 영국, 프랑스, 캐나다 등 주요 선진국을 대상으로 데이터 거버넌스를 정책적, 시스템적, 법제도적, 추진체계, 서비스적 차원에서 비교 분석하였다. 그리고 결론에서는 디지털 대전환시대, 코로나19 등 최근 어려운 경제위기 환경에 대해 신속히 대처하고 국민이 원하는 국가재정정책시스템으로서의 역할과 방향도 제안하였다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.113-122
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• 2021

This study aims to investigate the effects of fiscal policy instruments on economic growth in Jordan using annual data from 1970 to 2019, by applying the VAR model (Vector Auto regression) and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The study also examines the dynamic relationship among economic variables over time using the Granger casualty test, Impulse Response Function, and Variance Decomposition. The results show that not only the public expenditures have a positive effect on economic growth in Jordan, but also the tax revenues positively affect the economic growth in the short-run, and this is because of using the tax revenues to finance the government activities in Jordan. This effect becomes negative in the long run, and this is explained because the tax seems a source of distortions in the economy, The extreme taxes may cause huge distortions in the economy, and these distortions destroys the purchasing power, the aggregate demand, and supply. More governmental dependence on tax revenues is the main source of tax evasion and less efficiency. The effect of taxation will curb any prosperity in the economy. Therefore, the government should estimate the fair tax rates to generate sufficient revenues to finance the public expenditure required to enhance economic prosperity.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.41-82
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• 2017

This paper studies the risks associated with local finance in Korea by identifying the financial status of each local government, including the financial burdens of PPP projects, and examined governmental future burdens related to PPP projects. We reviewed all fiscal burdens associated with projects, such as, for BTL (Build-Transfer-Lease) types of projects, facility lease and operating expenses, and, for the BTO (Build-Transfer-Operate) types of projects, construction subsidies that are paid at the construction stage, MRG (Minimum Revenue Guarantee) payments and the government's share of payment. Furthermore, we compared the annual expenditures of local governments on PPP projects against their annual budgets and checked if the 2% ceiling rule could be applied.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.469-495
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• 2020

This paper overviews different exit strategies for the U.S. from the debt-overhang, and analyses their implications for emerging markets and global stability. These strategies are discussed in the context of the debates about secular-stagnation versus debt-overhang, the fiscal theory of the price level, the size of fiscal multipliers, prospects for a multipolar currency system, and historical case studies. We conclude that the reallocation of U.S. fiscal efforts towards infrastructure investment aiming at boosting growth, followed by a gradual tax increase, aiming at reaching a modest primary fiscal surplus over time are akin to an upfront investment in greater long-term global stability. Such a trajectory may solidify the viability and credibility of the U.S. dollar as a global anchor, thereby stabilizing Emerging Markets economies and global growth.

• 대한지리학회지
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• 제43권4호
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• pp.580-598
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• 2008

본 두 편의 연속논문은 수도권과 비수도권의 갈등관계를 조절하고 상생전략을 구체적으로 실현하기 위한 수단으로서 수평적 지방재정조정제도 이용방법을 제시한다. 본 논문에서는 먼저 수도권 정책을 둘러싼 선행연구를 비판적으로 검토한다. 수도권의 경제적 이점, 정책방향 및 대도시권의 역할 등을 둘러싸고 양극단의 대립적 견해가 구조적으로 고착화 되고 있지만 상생발전에 대해서는 수사적 제시만 있을 뿐 구체적인 실천수단을 제시하지 못하고 있다. 하나의 대안으로서 한국에서 아직 도입하지 않고 있지만 동일 수준의 지방정부간 재정이전을 동반하는 수평적 지방재정조정제도는 효과적인 상생발전 구현수단이 될 수 있다. 독일, 영국, 프랑스, 스웨덴을 중심으로 외국의 수평적 지방재정조정제도의 기본이념과 논리적 준거 및 조정방법을 살펴보고, 한국 지역정책에 갖는 시사점을 제시한다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.239-251
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• 2005

본 연구는 거시경제정책이 주식시장에 미치는 영향을 외환위기 전후와 주식시장 개방 전후의 시기를 비교하여 분석하였다. 이를 위해 SUR(Seemingly Unrelated Regression) 계량분석기법을 이용, 1982년 1월부터 2004년 12월까지의 월별 자료를 분석하였다. 분석결과 다음과 같은 증거들을 발견하였다. 첫째, 전체 분석기간 동안 재정정책에 대한 정보들은 주식시장에 잘 반영되었으나 통화정책들은 그렇지 못하다는 것을 발견하였다. 둘째, 거시경제정책이 주식시장에 영향을 미치는 과정에서 외환위기가 변수로 작용한 것으로 나타났다. 구체적으로는, 외환위기 이전과 비교하여 재정정책의 충격들은 외환위기 이후 주식시장의 가격형성에 잘 반영되고 있으나 통화정책의 충격들이 주식시장에 미치는 영향은 즉각적이지 않고 시간이 걸리는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 주식시장 개방 이전에는 과거의 거시경제정보들이 주식시장의 가격형성에 영향을 주었으나 이러한 현상을 개방 이후에는 발견할 수 없었다. 이와 같은 결과는 주식시장 개방이 시장의 참가자들에게 적극적인 거시경제정보의 분석과 활용을 유도하는 방향으로 작용하였다는 것을 시사한다.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제32권3호
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• pp.245-246
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• 2022

Concerns about a global economic recession are rising following the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Accordingly, government entities, which are committed to overcome two barriers to severe inflation and economic recession, are showing high interest in spending management so as not to undermine fiscal soundness. Since the health care sector especially accounts for a large proportion of fiscal expenditure, it should be managed in a manner that the expense is appropriately spent. The National Health Insurance System and Healthcare System have secured international competitiveness and reliability by effectively responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. Likewise, considerable efforts should be made to reorganize the welfare and healthcare systems so that they can be sustainable during the post-COVID-19 era and the recession.