• Korean small business review
• /
• v.42 no.2
• /
• pp.179-193
• /
• 2020

In the rapid trend of social change, such as the 4th industrial revolution and the realignment of job structures, university-industry cooperation(UIC) is emphasized as a key factor in enhancing national competitiveness. The level of UIC in Korea is insufficient compared to national competitiveness, and despite the world-class R&D investment, there is a lack of linkage between the result of technology development and the industrial field, and the knowledge-transfer between university and industry is also insufficient. This paper analyzed the employment effects of UIC program supported by government, especially youth employment effects. The companies participating in the UIC program showed higher employment effect than the non-participating companies. In addition, the result of examining the employment growth rate of participating companies only for projects aimed at 'education and human resource development', show that employment growth rate after one year (total, youth employment) was significantly higher than that of non-participating companies, while employment growth after two years was not significant. UIC program need to have sustainability and systemicity so that they can be directly linked to the employment effects.

• Annals of Occupational and Environmental Medicine
• /
• v.34
• /
• pp.3.1-3.12
• /
• 2022

Background: Influenza illness causes several disruptions to the workforce. The absenteeism that often ensues has economic implications for employers. This study aimed to estimate the cost-benefit of influenza vaccination in a healthcare setting from the employer's perspective. Methods: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted in a private hospital in 2018-2019 comparing voluntary vaccinated with non-vaccinated employees with influenza vaccine. The analyses were made based on self-reporting on absenteeism and presenteeism from Influenza-like illnesses (ILIs). The costs incurred, both direct and indirect costs, were included in the study. A cost-benefit analysis was performed by measuring the cost of the vaccination program. The costs of absenteeism and reduced productivity were calculated using 3 hypothesised levels of effectiveness in the following percentage of productivity of 30%, 50%, and 70%. The costs were also calculated based on four scenarios: with and without operating income and with and without replacement. The benefits of the influenza vaccination from the employer's perspective were analysed. The benefit to cost ratio was determined. Results: A total of four hundred and twenty-one respondents participated. The influenza vaccination rate was 63.0%. The rate of ILI of 38.1% was significantly lower among vaccinated. The ILI-related absenteeism reported was also significantly lower amongst vaccinated employees at 30% compared to 70% non-vaccinated. Employers could save up to USD 18.95 per vaccinated employee when only labour cost was included or 54.0% of cost savings. The cost-saving rose to USD 155.56 when the operating income per employee was also included. The benefit to cost ratio confirmed that the net cost-benefit gained from the vaccination was more than the net cost of vaccination. Conclusions: Influenza vaccination for working adults was cost-saving and cost-beneficial when translated into financial investments for the employer. A workplace vaccination demonstrates a significant cost-benefit strategy to be applied in any institutional setting.

• Korean Security Journal
• /
• no.50
• /
• pp.209-237
• /
• 2017

Theories on 'opportunity for crime' have utilized CCTV in crime prevention approach, and empirical studies showing crime prevention effects of CCTV have supported expansion of CCTV installation. Particularly, in Korea, the number of CCTV installation had tripled from 2011 to 2015, and governmental policies regarding CCTV have become one of the mainstream social control strategies. Although a couple of empirical studies showed decrease in crime rate due to CCTV installation, there is no study investigating B/C analysis(Benefit vs. cost analysis) of CCTV installation. B/C analysis results will be beneficial for official decision-making of criminal justice policy, and this study is purported to produce such fundamental evidence for policy making procedure. To fulfill this goal, this study collected data on financial information, crime data between 2011 and 2015 across the nation from 232 governmental district offices and the Korean National Police. This study then conducted two different B/C analyses(simple B/C analysis, regression-based B/C analysis). The simple B/C analysis results showed that 1) total costs for CCTV installation in 2014 was 68,626,000,000 won(approximately, US$57,188,333.00, money exchange rate 1200won=US$1), 2) benefits of crime reduction was 90,888,000,000 won(appx. US$75,740,000), and 3) B/C rate was 1.32. The regression-based B/C analysis results showed that 1) B/C rate was 1.52 when only reduced costs of criminal justice processes for crime employed, and 2) B/C rate was 3.62 when overall social costs including reduced costs of criminal justice processes and social benefits, e.g., reduction in costs for managing fear of crime, due to the crime reduction. Based on the results, this study provided policy implications.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
• /
• v.9 no.2
• /
• pp.109-116
• /
• 2014

In this study, the factors affecting the profitability of the oriental medicine hospitals of University to be analyzed. To do this, profitability indicators and current ratio, liquidity, turnover ratio, cost factors analysis and suggested ways to improve management. The results are as follows, the operating margin(1.17%). the return on assets(3.76%), the net profit to gross revenues(2.37%), and the net profit to total assets(-1.89) were lower than the average of the entire oriental medicine hospitals in Korea(respectively 8.9%, 8.7%, 2.6%, 2.5%). Current ratio(256.76%), quick ratio(231.17%), fixed ratio(121.02%), and total assets turnover(135.69%) were similar to the average of all oriental medicine hospitals in Korea. But growth rate of total assets(-2.21%), and growth rate of patient revenue(1.89%) is low. And salaries(53.39%), materials costs(16.62%), administrative expenses(28.58%) were different to the average of all oriental medicine hospitals in Korea(respectively 35.3%, 10.7%, 45.1%). Meanwhile, the cost ratio of the oriental medicine hospitals of University was 98.59%. It was 7.49% higher than the 91.1% of the average of all oriental medicine hospitals in 2011. Correlation analysis, growth rate of patient revenue and operating margin increased at the same time, and net profit to gross revenues and net profit to total assets with a growth rate of total assets increased. And administrative expenses and profitability indicators showed a negative correlation. It means, in order to improve the profitability of the oriental medicine hospitals of University should focus on reducing administrative expenses. Multiple regression analysis, growth rate of total assets, total assets turnover, administrative expenses, and salaries has affected the profitability. Therefore, in order to improve the profitability of the oriental medicine hospitals of University to increase the total capital and the total capital turnover, and to reduce administrative expenses effort.

• The Korean Nurse
• /
• v.36 no.1
• /
• pp.77-96
• /
• 1997

The duty shifts of hospital nurses not only affect nurses' physical and mental health but also present various personnel management problems which often result in high turnover rates. In this context a study was carried out from October to November 1995 for a period of two months to find out the status of hospital nurses' duty shift patterns, and preferred duty hours and fixed duty shifts. The study population was 867 RNs working in five general hospitals located in Seoul and its vicinity. The questionnaire developed by the writer was used for data collection. The response rate was 85.9 percent or 745 returns. The SAS program was used for data analysis with the computation of frequencies, percentages and Chi square test. The findings of the study are as follows: 1. General characteristics of the study population: 56 percent of respondents was (25 years group and 76.5 percent were "single": the predominant proportion of respondents was junior nursing college graduates(92.2%) and have less than 5 years nursing experience in hospitals(65.5%). For their future working plan in nursing profession, nearly 50% responded as uncertain The reasons given for their career plan was predominantly 'personal growth and development' rather than financial reasons. 2. The interval for rotations of duty stations was found to be mostly irregular(56.4%) while others reported as weekly(16.1%), monthly(12.9%), and fixed terms(4.6%). 3. The main problems related to duty shifts particularly the evening and night duty nurses reported were "not enough time for the family, " "afraid of security problems after the work when returning home late at night." and "lack of leisure time". "problems in physical and physiological adjustment." "problems in family life." "lack of time for interactions with fellow nurses" etc. 4. The forty percent of respondents reported to have '1-2 times' of duty shift rotations while all others reported that '0 time'. '2-3 times'. 'more than 3 times' etc. which suggest the irregularity in duty shift rotations. 5. The majority(62.8%) of study population found to favor the rotating system of duty stations. The reasons for favoring the rotation system were: the opportunity for "learning new things and personal development." "better human relations are possible. "better understanding in various duty stations." "changes in monotonous routine job" etc. The proportion of those disfavor the rotating 'system was 34.7 percent. giving the reasons of"it impedes development of specialization." "poor job performances." "stress factors" etc. Furthermore. respondents made the following comments in relation to the rotation of duty stations: the nurses should be given the opportunity to participate in the. decision making process: personal interest and aptitudes should be considered: regular intervals for the rotations or it should be planned in advance. etc. 6. For the future career plan. the older. married group with longer nursing experiences appeared to think the nursing as their lifetime career more likely than the younger. single group with shorter nursing experiences ($x^2=61.19.{\;}p=.000;{\;}x^2=41.55.{\;}p=.000$). The reason given for their future career plan regardless of length of future service, was predominantly "personal growth and development" rather than financial reasons. For further analysis, the group those with the shorter career plan appeared to claim "financial reasons" for their future career more readily than the group who consider the nursing job as their lifetime career$(x^2$= 11.73, p=.003) did. This finding suggests the need for careful .considerations in personnel management of nursing administration particularly when dealing with the nurses' career development. The majority of respondents preferred the fixed day shift. However, further analysis of those preferred evening shift by age and civil status, "< 25 years group"(15.1%) and "single group"(13.2) were more likely to favor the fixed evening shift than > 25 years(6.4%) and married(4.8%)groups. This differences were statistically significant ($x^2=14.54, {\;}p=.000;{\;}x^2=8.75, {\;}p=.003$). 7. A great majority of respondents(86.9% or n=647) found to prefer the day shifts. When the four different types of duty shifts(Types A. B. C, D) were presented, 55.0 percent of total respondents preferred the A type or the existing one followed by D type(22.7%). B type(12.4%) and C type(8.2%). 8. When the condition of monetary incentives for the evening(20% of salary) and night shifts(40% of. salary) of the existing duty type was presented. again the day shift appeared to be the most preferred one although the rate was slightly lower(66.4% against 86.9%). In the case of evening shift, with the same incentive, the preference rates for evening and night shifts increased from 11.0 to 22.4 percent and from 0.5 to 3.0 percent respectively. When the age variable was controlled. < 25 yrs group showed higher rates(31.6%. 4.8%) than those of > 25 yrs group(15.5%. 1.3%) respectively preferring the evening and night shifts(p=.000). The civil status also seemed to operate on the preferences of the duty shifts as the single group showed lower rate(69.0%) for day duty against 83. 6% of the married group. and higher rates for evening and night duties(27.2%. 15.1%) respectively against those of the married group(3.8%. 1.8%) while a higher proportion of the married group(83. 6%) preferred the day duties than the single group(69.0%). These differences were found to be statistically all significant(p=.001). 9. The findings on preferences of three different types of fixed duty hours namely, B, C. and D(with additional monetary incentives) are as follows in order of preference: B type(12hrs a day, 3days a wk): day shift(64.1%), evening shift(26.1%). night shift(6.5%) C type(12hrs a day. 4days a wk) : evening shift(49.2%). day shift(32.8%), night shift(11.5%) D type(10hrs a day. 4days a wk): showed the similar trend as B type. The findings of higher preferences on the evening and night duties when the incentives are given. as shown above, suggest the need for the introductions of different patterns of duty hours and incentive measures in order to overcome the difficulties in rostering the nursing duties. However, the interpretation of the above data, particularly the C type, needs cautions as the total number of respondents is very small(n=61). It requires further in-depth study. In conclusion. it seemed to suggest that the patterns of nurses duty hours and shifts in the most hospitals in the country have neither been tried for different duty types nor been flexible. The stereotype rostering system of three shifts and insensitiveness for personal life aspect of nurses seemed to be prevailing. This study seems to support that irregular and frequent rotations of duty shifts may be contributing factors for most nurses' maladjustment problems in physical and mental health. personal and family life which eventually may result in high turnover rates. In order to overcome the increasing problems in personnel management of hospital nurses particularly in rostering of evening and night duty shifts, which may related to eventual high turnover rates, the findings of this study strongly suggest the need for an introduction of new rostering systems including fixed duties and appropriate incentive measures for evenings and nights which the most nurses want to avoid, In considering the nursing care of inpatients is the round-the clock business. the practice of the nursing duty shift system is inevitable. In this context, based on the findings of this study. the following are recommended: 1. The further in-depth studies on duty shifts and hours need to be undertaken for the development of appropriate and effective rostering systems for hospital nurses. 2. An introduction of appropriate incentive measures for evening and night duty shifts along with organizational considerations such as the trials for preferred duty time bands, duty hours, and fixed duty shifts should be considered if good quality of care for the patients be maintained for the round the clock. This may require an initiation of systematic research and development activities in the field of hospital nursing administration as a part of permanent system in the hospital. 3. Planned and regular intervals, orientation and training, and professional and personal growth should be considered for the rotation of different duty stations or units. 4. In considering the higher degree of preferences in the duty type of "10hours a day, 4days a week" shown in this study, it would be worthwhile to undertake the R&D type studies in large hospital settings.

• Journal of Technologic Dentistry
• /
• v.31 no.1
• /
• pp.37-54
• /
• 2009

The purpose of this thesis is to address the imbalance between supply and demand of dental lab technicians and to propose its solutions by analyzing the improvement of employment rate of graduates of dental technology schools in Daegu area and the supply and demand of the technician workforce. Preliminary and full-scale surveys were performed from Aug. 10 to Oct. 10 in 2008 on 150 junior students of dental technology schools who finished their on-the-job-training and 150 dental technicians who were working for dental laboratory in Daegu by self-assessment questionnaire. Followings are the findings of this study. First, regarding the gender of the dental technicians, 32.7% of respondents were female 67.3% were male. Concerning age, respondents younger than 29 years-old occupied the highest percentage(39.3%). With respect to the lab technology school they graduated, DaeguHealthCollege took the largest proportion of 87.3%. With regard to interpersonal relationship at the school, 58.0% of respondents felt their relationship 'smooth'. Second, about the motive of choosing to be a lab technician, the biggest proportion of the respondents(34.7%) replied that 'because it is professional'. Regarding the degree of satisfaction about the profession, 'so-so' was the answer with the biggest percentage(51.3%) followed by 'satisfied'(32.0%) and 'unsatisfied'(16.7%). It showed that respondents were generally satisfied with their major. Third, regarding relevance of on-the-job-training with 'preparation for the employment', highest percentage of both students and lab technicians(50.0%) replied 'so-so'. With respect to 'necessity of practical education', highest percentage of the students and lab technicians replied 'relating didactic education in college to the real world' with 52.7% and 40.7% respectively. With regard to 'the aim of on-the-sport-training', 'practical training of didactic education' was chosen by 54.0% and 47.3% respectively. Fourth, with regard to the 'types of college education advantageous for the employment', both students and lab technicians groups chose 'practical training' with the highest percentage. Concerning 'helpfulness of clinical training on employment', students answered 'so-so' and 'helpful' by 50.0% and 42.7% respectively and dental technicians replied similarly by 50.0% and 46.0% respectively. Fifth, with regard to the influence of financial factors on the supply and demand of dental technician(question #1), 68.0% of respondents agreed that 'salary plays key role in the supply and demand of the work force'. Concerning the question about working condition, respondents requested better working environment. With reference to interpersonal relationship at the laboratory, respondents replied that interpersonal relationship affects the duration of the employment it was found out that there were many conflicts with colleagues or dental office. Sixth, regarding the satisfaction about their profession according to the characteristics of the respondents more respondents were 'satisfied'(10.30 points) with their profession and 'unsatisfied' were 9.47 points and the difference was statistically significant(p<0.05). According to the findings of this study, practical education on campus and on-the-job-training are as important as didactic education at class due to the characteristics of dental technology major. It was found that more practical training is related to higher employment rate. Therefore, efficiency of on-the-job-training by college education should be increased raise employment rate of the graduates and reduce the unemployment. Up-to-date information needs to be promptly delivered and future vision should be presented to the students to raise their satisfaction about the profession. In addition, to reduce dental technician's frequent change of their workplace after facing with the reality of the profession after graduation, related organizations should make an effort to present better future than now.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• v.16 no.1
• /
• pp.163-192
• /
• 1983

In order to facilitate the Korean government's efforts in integrating family planning and maternal & child health at the primary health care level (or township level), the Soon Chun Hyang College of Medicine, with the financial and technical assistance of WHO, has under-taken a service research project. The project has employed a quasi-experimental study design introducing interventions tat provide crucial factors lacking in the ongoing government programs such as midwives and qualified referral physicians. The study is being conducted in three locations, one control area and two study areas. Before introducing trained Nurse/Midewives into the study areas, a baseline prevalence survey was undertaken from 15 July 1981 to 10 August 1981 in selelcted townships of Seosan County. In this sample survey of bath the study and control areas, 2,484 eligible women (97% reponse rate) were interviewed to obtain benchmark data on basic evaluation indicators related to family planning and maternal and child health. The salients results were summarized as follows.: 1. CONTACT RATES WITH HEALTH WORKERS; During the year preceding the survey, 12% of women were visited by government health workers. The primary reason for such visits by health workers was family planning (45% of the visits). About 34% of the women visited the health centers during the year. The primary reason for visiting health centers was immunizations for their children (45% of the visits). 3. FAMILY PLANNING USE RATE; The baseline data showed little difference between women in the study area and the control area on contraceptive use. Approximately 59% were currently using some methods. However, among those current users, almost half were practicing less effective methods of birth control such as rhythm or withdrawal. Among other methods, the tubectomy was the most popular (16%), while use of the IUD, oral pill and condom together reached only 14%. 3. PRENATAL CARE RATE; About 75% of the women reported no prenatal care for their last births (the youngest child of each women), Additionally, among women received prenatal care, over half had only one visit. 4. ATTENDANCE AT DELIVERY; Most of the women surveyed (over 80%) were attended by a non-medical person during their last delivery. These figures are somewhat comparable to the national figure of 84% for remote areas. 5. POSTNATAL CARE; The proportion of women reporting postnatal care was only 4.5%, and postnatal care was not received by the majority of women surveyed. 6. CHILD HEALTH CARE: In contrast to the low rate of maternity care for women themselves, most women reported obtaining immunization care for their children. About 75% of the women obtained Polio and/or DPT, 58% BCG, and 44% Measles vaccine for their children. However, in terms of illness care, while 35% of the women stated that their youngest child had been sick during the month preceding the survey, only 28% of these women took their child to the clinic for treatment. 7. COMPLICATIONS OF PREGNANCY AND DELIVERY AND ABNORMALITIES IN THE NEWBORN; Among all last deliveries, 18% of the women had pregnancy complications and 9% of the women had complications during delivery About 5% of the women reported abnormality in their most recent newborn. 8. REPRODUCTION EFFICIENCY; PERINATAL MORTALITY AND INFANT MORTALITY Based on data from the pregnancy history in this survey, reproduction efficiency was estimated. Out of the 11,154 pregnancies reported by all women surveyed, foetal loss was 21% (almost 16% were induced abortions) and infant deaths before reaching one year old were 3.1%. The reproduction efficiency was, therefore, reduced to 76%. In terms of perinatal and infant mortality rates, the former was 40.2 per 1,000 total births and the latter was 39.3 per 1,000 live births. Both rates described J shaped relationships with age of mothers and parity, and they were also correlated with birth interval and mother's education. In summary, this baseline survey data indicated a need for (1) improving contraceptive practices with more effective methods to prevent unwanted pregnancies and (2) providing better services for maternal and child care to protect wanted pregancies. In the Korean rural setting. the author believes that the latter is more important as the value of each child has increased as a result of the family planning campaign for the past two decades. This calls for more effective integration of Family Planning and MCH programmes to meet the needs of the family in each stage of the child bearing and rearing period with deploying more qualified personnel than the current government program personnel.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
• /
• v.15 no.1
• /
• pp.131-153
• /
• 1984

Fishery resources are still abundant compared with other resources and the possibility of exploitation is probably great. The Korean fishery industry has grown remarkably since 1957, and Korea is ranked as one of the major fishery countries. Its of fishery products reached the 9th in the world and the value of exports was 5th in 1982. But recently a growth rate has slowed down, due to the enlargement of territorial seas by the declaration of the 200 mile, Exclusive Economic Zone, the tendency to develop fishery resources strate-gically in international bargaining, the change in function of the international organizations, the expansion of regulated waters, the illegal arrest of our fishing boats, the rapid rise in oil prices, and the fall in fish prices, the development of fishery resources as a symbol of nationalism, the fishing boats decreptitude, the rise of crew wages, regulations on fishing methods, fish species, fishing season, size of fish, and mesh size, fishing quotas and the demand of excessive fishing royalties. Besides the the obligation of coastal countries, employing crews of their host countries is also an example of the change in the international environment which causes the aggravation of foreign profit of fishing firms. To ameliorate the situation, our Korean fishery firms must prepare efficient plans and study systematically to internationalize themselves because such existing methods as conventional fishing entry and licence fishing entry are likely to be unable to cope with international environmental change. Thus, after the systematic analysis of the problem, some new combined alternatives might be proposed. These are some of the new schemes to support this plan showing the orientation of our national policy: 1. Most of the coastal states, to cope with rapid international environmental change and to survive in the new era of ocean order, have rationalized their higher governmental structure concerning the fishery industries. And the coastal countries which are the objectives of our expecting entry, demand excessive economic and technical aid, limit the number of fishing boats’entry and the use of our foreign fishing bases, and regulate the membership of the international fishery commissions. Especially, most of the coastal or island countries are recently independent states, which are poorer in national budget, depend largely on fishing royalties and licence entry fees as their main resources of national finance. 2. Alternatives to our entry to deep sea fishing, as internationalization strategies, are by direct foreign investment method. About 30 firms have already invested approximately US $ 8 million in 9 coastal countries. Areas of investment comprise the southern part of the Atlantic Ocean, the Moroccan sea and five other sea areas. Trawling, tuna purse seining and five other fields are covered by the investment. Joint-venture is the most prominent method of this direct investment. If we consider the number of entry firms, the host countries, the number of seas available and the size of investment, this method of cooperation is perhaps insufficient so far. Our fishery firms suffer from a weakness in international competitive ability, an insufficiency of information, of short funds, incompetency in the market, the unfriendliness of host coastal countries, the incapability of partners in joint-ventures and the political instability of the host countries. To enlarge our foreign fishing grounds, we are to actively adopt the direct investment entry method and to diversity our collaboraboration with partner countries. Consequently, besides proper fishing, we might utilize forward integration strategies, including the processing fied. a. The enterprise emigration method is likely to be successful in Argentina. It includes the development of Argentinian fishing grounds which are still not exploited in spite of abundant resources. Besides, Arentina could also be developed as a base for the exploitation of the krill resources and for further entries into collaboration with other Latin American countries. b. The co-business contract fishing method works in American territorial seas where American fishermen sell their fishery products to our factory ships at sea. This method contributes greatly to obtaining more fishing quotas and in innovation bottom fishing operation. Therefore we may apply this method to other countres to diffuse our foreign fishing entry. c. The new fishing ground development method was begun in 1957 by tuna long-line experimental fishing in the Indian Ocean. It has five fields, trawling, skipjack pole fishing and shrimp trawling, and so on. Recently, Korean fisheries were successful in the development of the Antarctic Ocean krill and tuna purse seining. 3. The acceleration of the internationalization of deep sea fishing; a. Intense information exchange activities and commission participation are likely to be continues as our contributions to the international fishery organizations. We should try to enter international fishery commissions in which we are not so far participating. And we have to reform adequately to meet the changes of the function of the international commissions. With our partner countries, we ought to conclude bilateral fishery agreements, thus enlarging our collaboration. b. Our government should offer economic and technical aids to host countries to facilitate our firms’fishery entry and activities. c. To accelerate technical innovation, our fishery firms must invest greater amount in technical innovation, at the same time be more discriminatory in importing exogeneous fishery technologies. As for fishing methods; expanded use of multi-purpose fishing boats and introduction of automation should be encuraged to prevent seasonal fluctuations in fishery outputs. d. The government should increases financial and tax aid to Korean firms in order to elevate already weak financial structure of Korean fishery firms. e. Finally, the government ought to revise foreign exchange regulations being applied to deep sea fishery firms. Furthermore, dutes levied on foreign purchaed equipments and supplies used by our deep sea fishing boats thould be reduced or exempted. when the fish caught by Korean partner of joint-venture firms is sold at the home port, pusan, import duty should be exempted.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
• /
• v.8 no.1
• /
• pp.179-197
• /
• 1991

선도환의 가격을 결정하는 접근방법에는 2차자산(derivative assets)이라는 선도계약의 기본특성에 기초한 재정거래(arbitrage)에 의한 방법이 가장 많이 이용되고 있다. 재정거래방식에는 선도환과 현물외환가격간의 상호관련성에 의하여 선도환가격을 이자율평가설(covered interest rate parity : CIRP), 즉 현물가격과 양국간의 이자율차이의 합으로 표시하고 있다. 특히 현물가격과 이자율은 모두 현재시점에서 의사결정자에게 알려져 있기때문에 선도환가격은 확실성하에서 결정되어 미래에 대한 예측이나 투자자의 위험회피도와는 관계없이 결정된다는 것이 특징이다. 이자율평가설에 관한 많은 실증연구는 거래 비용을 고려한 경우 현실적으로 적절하다고 보고 있다(Frenkel and Levich ; 1975, 1977). 다른 방법으로는 선도환의 미래예측기능에만 촛점을 맞추어 가격결정을 하는 투기, 예측접근방법(speculative efficiency approach : 이하에서는 SEA라 함)이 있다. 이 방법 중에서 가장 단순한 형태로 표시된 가설, 즉 '선도환가격은 미래기대현물가격과 같다'는 가설은 대부분의 실증분석에서 기각되고 있다. 이에 따라 SEA에서는 선도환가격이 미래에 대한 기대치뿐만 아니라 위험프리미엄까지 함께 포함하고 있다는 새로운 가설을 설정하고 이에 대한 실증분석을 진행한다. 이 가설은 이론적 모형에서 출발한 것이 아니기 때문에, 특히 기대치와 위험프레미엄 모두가 측정 불가능하다는 점으로 인하여 실증분석상 많은 어려움을 겪게 된다. 이러한 어려움을 피하기 위하여 많은 연구에서는 이자율평가설을 이용하여 선도환가격에 포함된 위험프레미엄에 대해 추론 내지 그 행태를 설명하려고 한다. 이자율평가설을 이용하여 분석모형을 설정하고 실증분석을 하는 것은 몇가지 근본적인 문제점을 내포하고 있다. 먼저, 앞서 지적한 바와 같이 이자율평가설을 가정한다는 것은 SEA에서 주된 관심이 되는 미래예측이나 위험프레미엄과는 관계없이 선도가격이 결정 된다는 것을 의미한다. 따라서 이자율평가설을 가정하여 설정된 분석모형은 선도환시장의 효율성이나 균형가격결정에 대한 시사점을 제공할 수 없다는 것을 의미한다. 즉, 가정한 시장효율성을 실증분석을 통하여 다시 검증하려는 것과 같다. 이러한 개념적 차원에서의 문제점 이외에도 실증분석에서의 추정상의 문제점 또한 존재한다. 대부분의 연구들이 현물자산의 균형가격결정모형에 이자율평가설을 추가로 결합하기 때문에 이러한 방법으로 설정한 분석모형은 그 기초가 되는 현물가격모형과는 달리 자의적 조작이 가능한 형태로 나타나며 이를 이용한 모수의 추정은 불필요한 편기(bias)를 가지게 된다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 실증분석상의 편기에 관한 문제점이 명확하고 구체적으로 나타나는 Mark(1985)의 실증연구를 재분석하고 실증자료를 통하여 위험회피도의 추정치에 편기가 발생하는 근본원인이 이자율평가설을 부적절하게 사용하는데 있다는 것을 확인 하고자 한다. 실증분석결과는 본문의 <표 1>에 제시되어 있으며 그 내용을 간략하게 요약하면 다음과 같다. (A) 실증분석모형 : 본 연구에서는 다기간 자산가격결정모형중에서 대표적인 Lucas (1978)모형을 직접 사용한다. $$1={\beta}\;E_t[\frac{U'(C_{t+1})\;P_t\;s_{t+1}}{U'(C_t)\;P_{t+1}\;s_t}]$$ (2) $U'(c_t)$와 $P_t$는 t시점에서의 소비에 대한 한계효용과 소비재의 가격을, $s_t$와 $f_t$는 외환의 현물과 선도가격을, $E_t$와 ${\beta}$는 조건부 기대치와 시간할인계수를 나타낸다. Mark는 위의 식 (2)를 이자율평가설과 결합한 다음의 모형 (4)를 사용한다. $$0=E_t[\frac{U'(C_{t+1})\;P_t\;(s_{t+1}-f_t)}{U'(C_t)\;P_{t+1}\;s_t}]$$ (4) (B) 실증분석의 결과 위험회피계수 ${\gamma}$의 추정치 : Mark의 경우에는 ${\gamma}$의 추정치의 값이 0에서 50.38까지 매우 큰 폭의 변화를 보이고 있다. 특히 비내구성제품의 소비량과 선도프레미엄을 사용한 경우 ${\gamma}$의 추정치의 값은 17.51로 비정상적으로 높게 나타난다. 반면에 본 연구에서는 추정치가 1.3으로 주식시장자료를 사용한 다른 연구결과와 비슷한 수준이다. ${\gamma}$추정치의 정확도 : Mark에서는 추정치의 표준오차가 최소 15.65에서 최대 42.43으로 매우 높은 반면 본 연구에서는 0.3에서 0.5수준으로 상대적으로 매우 정확한 추정 결과를 보여주고 있다. 모형의 정확도 : 모형 (4)에 대한 적합도 검증은 시용된 도구변수(instrumental variables)의 종류에 따라 크게 차이가 난다. 시차변수(lagged variables)를 사용하지 않고 현재소비와 선도프레미엄만을 사용할 경우 모형 (4)는 2.8% 또는 2.3% 유의수준에서 기각되는 반면 모형 (2)는 5% 유의수준에서 기각되지 않는다. 위와같은 실증분석의 결과는 앞서 논의한 바와 같이 이자율평가설을 사용하여 균형자산가격 결정모형을 변형시킴으로써 불필요한 편기를 발생시킨다는 것을 명확하게 보여주는 것이다.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
• /
• v.14 no.6
• /
• pp.59-76
• /
• 2019

Most technology-based entrepreneurship(TBE) go through an process of decline or disappear without overcoming the valley of death(VoD). The purpose of this study is to identify the growth dimension of TBE and to test the influence of firms activities on firms growth over time. This study identified the two-dimensional growth dimension divided by size and profit through exploratory factor analysis(EFA) of a number of growth indicators. Then, we defined the discrete state of growth firm in four states, divided by size and profit, and five states, including the closure of business. Multi-nomial logit model is used to predict the effect of TBE activities on a discrete state of growth firm(size×profit, closure of business) based on multiple independent variables. The independent variables are based on five representative firms activities: employment, marketing, R&D, financial activities, and general management activities. The growth stage of TBE over time has been categorized into three stages: early stage, middle stage, and late stage of business, taking into account the main periods during which the survival rate of startups sharply decreases. The analytical data of this study was based on the secondary data of the start-up supporting companies of government and public institutions. The subjects of analysis were TBE within 10 years. As a result of the empirical analysis, the employment and marketing activities of TBE show that early and mid-term activities had an effect on the state of firms growth. However, if there is a difference, employment activities have both positive and negative effects, while marketing activities have only a positive effect on size and profit growth. And besides, R&D activities, financial activities, and general management activities throughout the entire process of firms growth were found to be firms activities that have both positive and negative effects on firms growth. In addition, the age of the founder, the firms' industry, and the geographic location of the firms, which are general characteristics of the company, were found to have a distinctive effect on the growth status of the firms according to the growth stage.