• Title/Summary/Keyword: Fall Prediction

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Numerical Study for Prediction of Rock Falls Around Jointed Limestone Underground Opening due to Blast Vibration (발파진동에 의한 절리암반 지하공동의 낙석발생 예측에 관한 수치해석적 연구)

  • Kim, Hyon-Soo;Kim, Seung-Kon;Cho, Sang-Ho
    • Explosives and Blasting
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.10-16
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    • 2016
  • Recently, transition from open pit to underground mining in limestone mines is an increasing trend in Korea due to environmental issues such as noise, dust and vibrations caused by crushers and equipment. The severe damages in the surrounding rock mass of underground opening caused by explosive blasting may lead to rock fall hazards or casualties. It is well known that variables which mainly affect blast-induced rock falls in underground mining are: blast vibration level, joint orientation and distribution and shape of the cross sections of underground structures. In this study, UDEC program, which is a DEM code, is used to simulate blast vibration-induced rock fall in underground openings. Variation of joint space, joint angle and joint normal stiffness was considered to investigate the effect of joint characteristics on the blast vibration-induced rock fall in underground opening. Finally, jointed rock mass models considering blast-induced damage zone were examined to simulate the critical blast vibration value which may cause rock falls in underground opening.

Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of the timed up and go test as a predictive tool for fall risk in persons with stroke: a retrospective study

  • Lim, Seung-yeop;Lee, Byung-jun;Lee, Wan-hee
    • Physical Therapy Rehabilitation Science
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.54-60
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    • 2018
  • Objective: Persons with chronic stroke fall more often than healthy elderly individuals. The Timed Up and Go test (TUG) is used as a fall prediction tool, but only provides a result for the total measurement time. This study aimed to determine the optimal cut-off values for each of the 6 components of the TUG. Design: Retrospective study. Methods: Thirty persons with chronic stroke participated in the study. TUG evaluation was performed using a wearable miniaturized inertial sensor. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were calculated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis for the measured values in each section. Optimal values for fall risk classification were determined. Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the risk of future falls based on TUG. Results: The cut-off values of the 6 sections of the TUG were determined, as follows: sit-to-stand >2.00 seconds (p<0.05), forward gait >4.68 seconds (p<0.05), mid-turn >3.82 seconds (p<0.05), return gait >4.81 seconds (p<0.05), end-turn >2.95 seconds (p<0.05), and stand-to-sit >2.13 seconds (p<0.05). The risk of falling increased by 2.278 times when the mid-turn value was >3.82 seconds (p<0.05). Conclusions: The risk of falls increased by 2.28 times when the value of the mid-turn interval exceeded 3.82 seconds. Therefore, when interpreting TUG results, the predictive accuracy for falls will be higher when the measurement time for each section is analyzed, together with the total time for TUG.

Validation of Modified Two-Surface Model (수정이중면 모델의 타당성 분석)

  • Kim, Dae-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the KAIS Fall Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.276-278
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    • 2007
  • In this study the modified Two-Surface model was validated by comparing the model prediction with the results of the experiments carefully performed. It was seen that the modified Two-Surface model was capable of more realistically simulating the behaviors of clayey specimens, specially over-consolidated specimens. This is attributed mainly to the smooth transition rule from the elastic to elastoplastic regions.

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A Study on Prediction System For Pedestrian-Head Injury Criteria (보행자 머리 상해치 예측 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Byung-Yoon;Huh, Yong-Jeong
    • Proceedings of the KAIS Fall Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.109-111
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    • 2006
  • 본 논문은 보행자 머리 상해치 예측을 통해 보행자 보호 법규의 만족여부를 판단하는 시스템을 구축 하는데 있다. 차량의 FE DATA와 더미 DATA를 입력하고, MADYMO solver를 이용하여 해석을 수행한다. 이를 통해 나온 결과 HIC(머리상해치)와 보행자 보호 법규에서 제시하는 HIC(머리상해치)와 비교를 통해 만족여부를 판단한다. 강화되는 보행자 보호 법규를 만족시키기 위해 차량시스템을 개선을 유도 하고 이를 통해 차량 대 보행자 사고 시 보행자의 생명을 구하는데 그 궁극적인 목적이 있다.

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A Study on the recently noted models for the geomaterials (지반재료에서 최근 주목받는 구성모델에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Dae-Kyu;Kim, Min-Jeong
    • Proceedings of the KAIS Fall Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.119-121
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    • 2011
  • The proper selection and application of the constitutive model leads to successful prediction of the mechanical behavior for the geomaterials. Three models, which have been recently noted, were chosen and their contents have been briefly and conceptually described in this study.

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A Study of Acoustical Prediction Software (소리 예측 프로그램 연구)

  • Yun, Yoe-Mun
    • Proceedings of the KAIS Fall Conference
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    • 2010.05b
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    • pp.883-885
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    • 2010
  • 다양한 홀에서 물리적으로 운동하는 사운드를 미리 예측한다는 것은 매우 어려운 일이다. 자유롭게 운동하는 사운드를 예측/분석할 수 있는 과학적인 소프트웨어는 사운드 엔지니어에게 많은 도움을 준다. 소리의 물리적 운동 방향(Sound Directivity), 거리에 따른 타임 딜레이(Time Delay), 스피커의 각도와 적정한 SPL(Sound Pressure Level)을 과학적인 근거에 의해서 정확한 값을 산출하여 음향 장비 설치이전에 미리 예측하여 음향 디자인을 완성한다면 시간과 비용을 획기적으로 줄일 수 있다. 본 연구은 현재 개발 과정에 있거나 혹은 사용되어지고 있는 소리 예측 프로그램을 분석하여 보다 진보된 소리예측 프로그램을 개발하고자 함이다.

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Prevention of Traffic Accident using AHP Rules (AHP를 이용한 교통사고 예방)

  • Jin, Hyun-Soo
    • Proceedings of the KAIS Fall Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.157-159
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    • 2008
  • This paper has been studied traffic accident using intelligence prediction algorithm. and wish to prevent accident by guiding in 2 km ahead the accident that occur in fog section and a snow-covered road, sudden roadworks and sharp curve section, etc and removing fog and snow automatically using the ubiquitous and intelligence technique. If we can predict of traffic accident, we can prevent the many traffic accident. In this paper, we present neural network approach for prediction of traffic accident. Computer simulation results prove that reducing the average vehicle waiting time which proposed considering prevention of traffic algorithm for optimal traffic cycle is better than fixed signal method which dose not using prevention of traffic algorithm.

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Evaluation of Daily Precipitation Estimate from Integrated MultisatellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) Data over South Korea and East Asia (동아시아 및 남한 지역에서의 Integrated MultisatellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) 일강수량의 지상관측 검증)

  • Lee, Juwon;Lee, Eun-Hee
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.273-289
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    • 2018
  • This paper evaluates daily precipitation products from Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite (TRMM) Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), and the Climate Prediction Center Morphing Method (CMORPH), validated against gauge observation over South Korea and gauge-based analysis data East Asia during one year from June 2014 to May 2015. It is found that the three products effectively capture the seasonal variation of mean precipitation with relatively good correlation from spring to fall. Among them, IMERG and TMPA show quite similar precipitation characteristics but overall underestimation is found from all precipitation products during winter compared with observation. IMERG shows reliably high performance in precipitation for all seasons, showing the most unbiased and accurate precipitation estimation. However, it is also noticed that IMERG reveals overestimated precipitation for heavier precipitation thresholds. This assessment work suggests the validity of the IMERG product for not only seasonal precipitation but also daily precipitation, which has the potential to be used as reference precipitation data.

Lag Time Estimation and Runoff Prediction Based on the Gemorphologic Parameters (유역(流域)의 지형학적(地形學的) 인자(因子)에 기초한 운체시간(運滯時間)의 산정(算定)과 유출예측(流出豫測))

  • Chon, Min Woo;Cho, Won Chul;Lee, Won Hwan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 1989
  • A runoff model is estabilished for the direct runoff hydrograph at the watershed outlet. The watershed is divided into subareas bounded by watershed lines of stream segment. Different storage elements are used to represent the subareas which simply translate rain-fall excess to runoff and transmit flow from an upstream areas. For transmit, the relationship between flowsection and runoff is expressed by the exponential function to represent the nonlinearity of lag time, and the relationship between flowsection and stream length is expressed by the 1st order equation to represent the effect of the travel length. The parameters of lag time can be obtained by stream magnitude and the effective rain fall is routed through the main stream. Application of the model to the Bochung river basin gives accurate results, especially for the peak runoff and peak time, and is approved to be used for the prediction by stream magnitude of small watershed having no runoff records.

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Comparative assessment of frost event prediction models using logistic regression, random forest, and LSTM networks (로지스틱 회귀, 랜덤포레스트, LSTM 기법을 활용한 서리예측모형 평가)

  • Chun, Jong Ahn;Lee, Hyun-Ju;Im, Seul-Hee;Kim, Daeha;Baek, Sang-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.9
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    • pp.667-680
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    • 2021
  • We investigated changes in frost days and frost-free periods and to comparatively assess frost event prediction models developed using logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. The meteorological variables for the model development were collected from the Suwon, Cheongju, and Gwangju stations for the period of 1973-2019 for spring (March - May) and fall (September - November). The developed models were then evaluated by Precision, Recall, and f-1 score and graphical evaluation methods such as AUC and reliability diagram. The results showed that significant decreases (significance level of 0.01) in the frequencies of frost days were at the three stations in both spring and fall. Overall, the evaluation metrics showed that the performance of RF was highest, while that of LSTM was lowest. Despite higher AUC values (above 0.9) were found at the three stations, reliability diagrams showed inconsistent reliability. A further study is suggested on the improvement of the predictability of both frost events and the first and last frost days by the frost event prediction models and reliability of the models. It would be beneficial to replicate this study at more stations in other regions.