• 품질경영학회지
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.61-84
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• 2001

The problem of trend change in the failure rate is great interest in the reliability and survival analysis. In this paper we develop a test statistic for testing whether or not the failure rate changes its trend based on a complete sample. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to investigate the speed of convergence of the proposed test statistic.

• 한국정보기술응용학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정보기술응용학회 2005년도 6th 2005 International Conference on Computers, Communications and System
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• pp.143-146
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• 2005

The software reliability growth depends on the testing time because the failure rate varies whether it is long or not. On the other hand, it might be difficult to reduce failure rate for most of the cases are not available for debugging during operational phase, hence, there are some literatures to study that the failure rate is uniform throughout the operational time. The failure rate reduces and the reliability grows with time regardless of debugging. As a result, the products reliability varies with the time duration of these products in point of customer view. The reason of this is that it accumulates the products experience, studies the exact operational method, and then finds and takes action against the fault circumstances. I propose the simple model to represent this status in this paper.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제66권3호
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• pp.500-506
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• 2017

In 2014, ISO 55000s has been enacted and the power plant asset management is becoming a hot issue for all over the world. The asset management system is being developed as a combination of CBM(Condition Based Maintenance) and RCM(Reliability Centered Maintenance). Therefore, the research on the calculation of the failure rate which is the most basic index of RCM is actively carried out. The failure rate calculation has been going on for a long time, and the most widely used probability distribution is the Weibull distribution. In the Weibull distribution, the failure rate function is determined in three types according to the value of the shape parameter. However, the Weibull distribution has a limitation that it is difficult to apply it when the trend of failure rate changes-such as bathtub curves. In this paper, the failure rate is calculated using the mixture Weibull distribution which can appropriately express the change of the shape of the failure rate. Based on these results, we propose the necessity and validity of applying mixture Weibull distribution.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.11-19
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• 2009

A number of trend test methods, i.e., Military Handbook test and Laplace test etc., have been applied to investigate recurrent failures trend in repairable systems. Existing methods provide information about only existence of trend in the system. In this paper, we propose a new change-point test based on the Schwarz Information Criterion(SIC). The change-point approach is more informative than other trend test methods in that it provides the number of change-points and the location of change-points if it exists, as well as the existence of change-point for recurrent failures. The change-point test is applied to nine 300MW generating units operated in East China. We confirm that the change-point test has a potential for establishing optimal preventive maintenance policy by detecting change-point of failure rate.

• 보건교육건강증진학회지
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.25-34
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• 2009

Objectives: This study has longitudinally analyzed male smokers in order to find out the trend rate of re-smoking after smoking cessation. Methods: The study was conducted with 800 male smokers who were provided with smoking cessation services for 3 years at public health centers from July 16, 2005 to July 15, 2008. Results: The results can be summarized as follows: First, the success rate of smoking cessation for at least 6 months during 3-year period was 54.4%. The failure rate of smoking cessation at the second year was 47.5% and the third 27.2%, which indicates that the failure rate diminishes as the period of smoking cessation extends. Second, the success rate of smoking cessation at the first trial was 35.0%, the second 24.3%, and the third 16.4%. The success rate diminished as the number of trial increased. Third, the continuation rate of smoking cessation for a year was 18.3%, for 2 years 13.4%. For the success group, the continuation rate of smoking cessation for a year was 52.5%, for 2 years 38.2%. For the failure group, the rate for a year was 21.5%. Fourth, in this longitudinal analysis, the most crucial variables that affect the success rate of smoking cessation are total number of consultation and the past experience of successful smoking cessation. Conclusion: This study shows that success of smoking cessation and the continuance of smoking cessation are both difficult, and that the past experience of smoking cessation plays an important role determining the present success of smoking cessation and continuance of smoking cessation. Thus, it is necessary to divide people into success group and failure group based on the results of the past experience of smoking cessation when they consult at smoking cessation clinics at public health centers. Further, in order to increase the continuation rate of smoking cessation, this study suggests that we need to consider ways to take care of those who successfully abstained from smoking for 6 months.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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• 제53권3호
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• pp.150-154
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• 2013

Objective : To evaluate the effect of electromagnetic (EM) navigation system on ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt failure rate through comparing the result of standard shunt placement. Methods : All patients undergoing VP shunt from October 2007 to September 2010 were included in this retrospective study. The first group received shunt surgery using EM navigation. The second group had catheters inserted using manual method with anatomical landmark. The relationship between proximal catheter position and shunt revision rate was evaluated using postoperative computed tomography by a 3-point scale. 1) Grade I; optimal position free-floating in cerebrospinal fluid, 2) Grade II; touching choroid or ventricular wall, 3) Grade III; tip within parenchyma. Results : A total of 72 patients were participated, 27 with EM navigated shunts and 45 with standard shunts. Grade I was found in 25 patients from group 1 and 32 patients from group 2. Only 2 patients without use of navigation belonged to grade III. Proximal obstruction took place 7% in grade I, 15% in grade II and 100% in grade III. Shunt revision occurred in 11% of group 1 and 31% of group 2. Compared in terms of proximal catheter position, there was growing trend of revision rate according to increase of grade on each group. Although infection rate was similar between both groups, the result had no statistical meaning (p=0.905, chi-square test). Conclusion : The use of EM navigation in routine shunt surgery can eliminate poor shunt placement resulting in a dramatic reduction in failure rates.

• 한국품질경영학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국품질경영학회 1998년도 The 12th Asia Quality Management Symposium* Total Quality Management for Restoring Competitiveness
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• pp.277-286
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• 1998

This paper investigates the problem of determining optimal replacement policies for equipment subject to failures with cyclic rates. In many situations, the system failures depend on the operating environmental conditions that vary on time, usually with periodical manners. We use nonhomogeneous Poisson processes whose rate functions exhibit cyclic behavior as well as a long-term evolutionary trend to model the stochastic process of the failures when the rate of occurrence of the failures varies periodically, for example from day to day or between seasons. In this study, we compare optimal policies under the nonhomogeneous process with/without a cyclic component in the failure rate function. The analytical results for various situations are presented along with numerical examples using simulated data.

• Management Science and Financial Engineering
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.43-53
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• 1999

In many situations, the system failures depend on the operating environmental conditions that vary on time, usually with periodical manners. We use nonhomogeneous Poisson processes whose rate functions exhibit cyclic behavior as well as a long-term evolutionary trend to model the stochastic process of the failures when the rate of occurrence of the failures varies periodically, for example from day to day or between seasons. In this study, we compare optimal policies under the nonho-mogeneous process with/without a cyclic component in the failure rate function. The analytical re-sults for various situations are presented along with numerical examples using simulated data.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.51-59
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• 2006

The purpose of this paper is to present reliability analysis procedures for repairable systems and apply the procedures for assessing the reliabilities of two subsystems of a specific group of military equipment based on field failure data. The mean cumulative function, M(t), the average repair rate, ARR(t), and analytic test methods are used to determine whether a failure process follows a renewal or non-renewal process. For subsystem A, the failure process turns out to follow a homogeneous Poisson process, and subsequently, its mean time between failures, availability, and the necessary number of spares are estimated. For subsystem B, the corresponding M(t) plot shows an increasing trend, indicating that its failure process follows a non-renewal process. Therefore, its M(t) is modeled as a power function of t, and a preventive maintenance policy is proposed based on the annual mean repair cost.

• 융합보안논문지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.145-153
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• 2006

본 논문에서는 기록값 통계량을 이용한 무한 고장 NHPP 모형들이 제안되었다. 이 모형들은 결함당 고장 발생률이 단조 증가하거나 단조 감소하는 패턴을 가진다. 그리고 수명 분포에서는 어랑 분포, 랄리 분포와 굼벨를 이용한 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형을 적용하여 비교연구에 초점을 두었다. 고장 간격 시간 자료를 이용한 무한 고장 NHPP 모형들에 대한 모수 추정법은 최우 추정법을 사용하였고 적용 분포들의 적용을 용이하게 하기 위하여 특수한 형태를 제시하였다. 고장 자료의 분석을 위하여 산술 및 라플라스 추세 검정과 적합도 및 치우침 검정을 실시하여 그 결과를 나열하였다.