• 대한산업공학회지
• /
• 제33권1호
• /
• pp.52-60
• /
• 2007

Estimating parameters of the lifetime distribution is investigated when field failure data are not completelyreported. To take into account the reality and the accuracy of the estimates in such a case, the failure reportingprobability is incorporated in estimating parameters, Firstly, method of maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) isused to estimate parameters of the lifetime distribution when failure reporting probability is known, Secondly,Expectation and Maximization (EM) algorithm is used to estimate the failure reporting probability and parame-ters of the lifetime distribution simultaneously when failure reporting probability is unknown. For both cases,procedures of estimation are illustrated for single Weibull distribution and mixed Weibull distribution. Simula-tion results show that MLE obtained by the proposed method is more accurate than the conventional MLE.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
• /
• 제10권2호
• /
• pp.63-79
• /
• 2009

A new bivariate linear failure rate distribution is introduced through a shock model. It is proved that the marginal distributions of this new bivariate distribution are linear failure rate distributions. The joint moment generating function of the bivariate distribution is derived. Mixtures of bivariate linear failure rate distributions are also discussed. Application to a real data is given.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
• /
• 제51권5호
• /
• pp.232-237
• /
• 2002

It is increased for methodology to evaluate distribution power system interruption cost in power supply zones under competitive electricity market. This paper presents algorithms to evaluate system interruption cost in distribution power supply zones taking into consideration failure rate of distribution facilities and composite customer interruption cost. In this paper, it is introduced for weighting factor for each customer failure duration and failure rate of distribution facilities to evaluate reasonable system interruption cost in distribution power supply area. Also, this Paper estimates evaluation results of system interruption cost using a sample model system. Finally, evaluation results of system interruption cost based on failure rate of distribution facilities and composite customer interruption cost are shown in detail.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국경영과학회/대한산업공학회 2005년도 춘계공동학술대회 발표논문
• /
• pp.678-685
• /
• 2005

Estimating parameters of the lifetime distribution is investigated when field failure data are not completely reported. To take into account the reality and the accuracy of the estimates in such a case, the failure reporting probability is incorporated in estimating parameters. Firstly, method of maximum likelihood estimate(MLE) is used to estimate parameters of the lifetime distribution when failure reporting probability is known. Secondly, Expectation and Maximization(EM) algorithm is used to estimate the failure reporting probability and parameters of the lifetime distribution simultaneously when failure reporting probability is unknown. For both case, procedures of estimation are illustrated for single Weibull distribution and mixed Weibull distribution. Simulation results show that MLE obtained by the proposed method is more accurate than the conventional MLE.

• 전기학회논문지P
• /
• 제59권2호
• /
• pp.154-157
• /
• 2010

In this paper, the Time-varying Failure Rates(TFR) of power distribution system components are extracted from the recorded failure data of KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation) and the reliability of power distribution system is evaluated using Mean Failure Rate(MFR) and TFR. The TFR is approximated to bathtub curve using the exponential and Weibull distribution function. In addition, Kaplan-Meier estimation is applied to TFR extraction because of incomplete failure data of KEPCO. Also the reliability of the real power distribution system of Korea is evaluated using the MFR and TFR extracted from real failure data, respectively and the results of each case are compared with each other. As a result, it is proved that the reliability evaluation using the TFR is more realistic than MFR. In addition, it is presented that the application method at power distribution system maintenance and repair using the result of TFR.

• 전기학회논문지
• /
• 제66권3호
• /
• pp.500-506
• /
• 2017

In 2014, ISO 55000s has been enacted and the power plant asset management is becoming a hot issue for all over the world. The asset management system is being developed as a combination of CBM(Condition Based Maintenance) and RCM(Reliability Centered Maintenance). Therefore, the research on the calculation of the failure rate which is the most basic index of RCM is actively carried out. The failure rate calculation has been going on for a long time, and the most widely used probability distribution is the Weibull distribution. In the Weibull distribution, the failure rate function is determined in three types according to the value of the shape parameter. However, the Weibull distribution has a limitation that it is difficult to apply it when the trend of failure rate changes-such as bathtub curves. In this paper, the failure rate is calculated using the mixture Weibull distribution which can appropriately express the change of the shape of the failure rate. Based on these results, we propose the necessity and validity of applying mixture Weibull distribution.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
• /
• 제28권4호
• /
• pp.13-20
• /
• 2021

In this paper, I was applied the life distribution following linear failure rate distribution, Lindley distribution and Burr-Hatke exponential distribution extensively used in the arena of software reliability and were associated the reliability possessions of the software using the nonhomogeneous Poisson process with finite failure. Furthermore, the average value functions of the life distribution are non-increasing form. Case of the linear failure rate distribution (exponential distribution) than other models, the smaller the estimated value estimation error in comparison with the true value. In terms of accuracy, since Burr-Hatke exponential distribution and exponential distribution model in the linear failure rate distribution have small mean square error values, Burr-Hatke exponential distribution and exponential distribution models were stared as the well-organized model. Also, the linear failure rate distribution (exponential distribution) and Burr-Hatke exponential distribution model, which can be viewed as an effectual model in terms of goodness-of-fit because the larger assessed value of the coefficient of determination than other models. Through this study, software workers can use the design of mean square error, mean value function as a elementary recommendation for discovering software failures.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• 제21권1호
• /
• pp.173-177
• /
• 2010

It is well known that if the parent distribution has a nonnegative support and has increasing failure rate, then all the order statistics have increasing failure rate (IFR). The result is not necessarily true in the case of bivariate distributions with dependent structures. In this paper we consider a symmetric bivariate exponential distribution and show that, two marginal distributions are IFR and the distributions of the minimum and maximum are constant failure rate and IFR, respectively.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
• /
• 제10권1호
• /
• pp.43-57
• /
• 2009

In this article, we study the reliability equivalence factor of a series system. The failure rates of the system components are functions of time t. we study two cases of non-constat failure rates (i) weibull distribution (ii) linear increasing failure rate distribution. There are two methods are used to improve the given system. Two types of reliability equivalence factors are discussed. Numerical examples are presented to interpret how one can utilize the obtained results.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
• /
• 제54권11호
• /
• pp.548-556
• /
• 2005

Reliability evaluation of power distribution system is very important to both power utilities and customers. It present the probabilistic number and duration of interruption such as failure rate, SATDI, SAIFI, and CAIDI. However, it has a fatal weakness at reliability index because of accuracy of failure rate. In this paper, the Time-varying Failure Rate(TFR) of power distribution system equipment is extracted from the recorded failure data of KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation) in Korea. For TFR extraction, it is used that the fault data accumulated by KEPCO during 10 years. The TFR is approximated to bathtub curve using the exponential(random failure) and Weibull(aging failure) distribution function. In addition, Kaplan-Meier estimation is applied to TFR extraction because of incomplete failure data of KEPCO. Finally, Probability plot and regression analysis is applied. It is presented that the extracted TFR is more effective and useful than Mean Failure Rate(MfR) through the comparison between TFR and MFR