• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.181-189
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• 1993

Over the past two decades, forecasting has gained widespread acceptance as an integral part of business planning and decision making. Accurate forecasting is a prerequisite to successful planning. Accordingly, recent advances in forecasting techniques are of exceptional value to corporate planners. But most of forecasting mothods are reveal its limit and problem for precision and reliability duing to each relationship for raw data and possibility of explanation for each variable. Therefore, to construct the Integrated Forecasting Model(IFM) for Information Factor Analysis, it shoud be considered that whether law data has time lag and variables are explained. For this. following several method can be used : Least Square Method, Markov Process, Fibonacci series, Auto-Correlation, Cross-Correlation, Serial Correlation and Random Walk Theory. Thus, the unified property of these several functions scales the safety and growth of the system which may be varied time-to-time.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.63-76
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• 2006

Marine production forecasting in fisheries is a crucial factor for managing and maintaining fishery resources. Thus this paper aims to generate a forecasting model of total marine production. The most generally method of time series model is to generate the most optimal single forecasting model. But the method could induce a different forecasting results when it does not properly infer a model To overcome the defect, I am trying to propose a single forecasting through multiple time series model. In other word, by comparing and integrating the output resulted from ARIMA and VAR model (which are typical method in a forecasting methodology), I tried to draw a forecasting. It is expected to produce more stable and delicate forecasting prospect than a single model. Through this, I generated 3 models on a yearly and monthly data basis and then here I present a forecasting from 2006 to 2010 through comparing and integrating 3 models. In conclusion, marine production is expected to show a decreasing tendency for the coming years.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.59-66
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• 2020

In this study, we consider the problem of forecasting the number of inbound foreigners visiting Korea. Forecasting tourism demand is an essential decision to plan related facilities and staffs, thus many studies have been carried out, mainly focusing on the number of inbound or outbound tourists. In order to forecast tourism demand, we use a seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model, as well as a SARIMAX model which additionally comprises an exogenous variable affecting the dependent variable, i.e., tourism demand. For constructing the forecasting model, we use a search procedure that can be used to determine the values of the orders of the SARIMA and SARIMAX. For the exogenous variable, we introduce factors that could cause the tourism demand reduction, such as the 9/11 attack, the SARS and MERS epidemic, and the deployment of THAAD. In this study, we propose a procedure, called Measuring Impact on Demand (MID), where the impact of each factor on tourism demand is measured and the value of the exogenous variable corresponding to the factor is determined based on the measurement. To show the performance of the proposed forecasting method, an empirical analysis was conducted where the monthly number of foreign visitors in 2019 were forecasted. It was shown that the proposed method can find more accurate forecasts than other benchmarks in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.255-263
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• 2024

GDP represents the total market value of goods and services produced by all economic entities, including households, businesses, and governments in a country, during a specific time period. It is a representative economic indicator that helps identify the size of a country's economy and influences government policies, so various studies are being conducted on it. This paper presents a GDP growth rate forecasting model based on a dynamic factor model using key macroeconomic indicators of G20 countries. The extracted factors are combined with various regression analysis methodologies to compare results. Additionally, traditional time series forecasting methods such as the ARIMA model and forecasting using common components are also evaluated. Considering the significant volatility of indicators following the COVID-19 pandemic, the forecast period is divided into pre-COVID and post-COVID periods. The findings reveal that the dynamic factor model, incorporating ridge regression and lasso regression, demonstrates the best performance both before and after COVID.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1988.11a
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• pp.118-121
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• 1988

Load forecasting is an important issue as for the economic dispatch and there have been many researches which are classfied into two classes, time series method and factor analysis method. But the former is not adaptive for a sudden change of a correlated factor and the latter is not inefficient as the factor estimation is not easy. To make matters worse, both of them are not good for the estimation of special days. It is because the load forecasting is not a problem modeled precisely in mathematics, but a problem requires experience and knowledge those can solve it case by case. In this viewpoint, an expert system is proposed which can use complicated experience of an expert by use of fuzzy decision.

• Journal of Industrial Technology
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• v.15
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• pp.187-193
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• 1995

In this paper, a short-term load forecasting expert system considering the load variation due to the change in temperature is presented. The change in temperature is an important load variation factor that varies the normal load pattern. The conventional load forecasting methods by artificial neural networks have used the technique where the temperature variables were included in the input neurons of artificial neural networks. However, simply adding the input units of temperature data may make the forecasting accuracy worse, since the accuracy of the load forecasting in this method depends on the accuracy of weather forecasting. In this paper, the fuzzy expert system that modifies the forecasted load using fuzzy rules representing the relations of load and temperature is presented and compared with a conventional load forecasting technique. In the test case of 1991, the proposed model provided a more accurate forecast than the conventional technique.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.37 no.3_4
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• pp.48-60
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• 1995

A flood - flow forecasting system model of river basins has been developed in this study. The system model consists of the data management system(the observation and telemetering system, the rainfall forecasting and data-bank system), the flood runoff simulation system, the reservoir operation simulation system, the flood forecasting simulation system, the flood warning system and the user's menu system. The Multivariate Rainfall Forecasting model, Meteorological factor regression model and Zone expected rainfall model for rainfall forecasting and the Streamflow synthesis and reservoir regulation(SSARR) model for flood runoff simulation have been adopted for the development of a new system model for flood - flow forecasting. These models are calibrated to determine the optimal parameters on the basis of observed rainfall, 7 streamfiow and other hydrological data during the past flood periods.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.23 no.9
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• pp.37-46
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• 2023

The main aim of the article is to solve the problem of automating price monitoring using marketing forecasting methods and Excel functionality under martial law. The study used the method of algorithms, trend analysis, correlation and regression analysis, ANOVA, extrapolation, index method, etc. The importance of monitoring consumer price developments in market pricing at the macro and micro levels is proved. The introduction of a Dummy variable to account for the influence of martial law in market pricing is proposed, both in linear multiple regression modelling and in forecasting the components of the Consumer Price Index. Experimentally, the high reliability of forecasting based on a five-factor linear regression model with a Dummy variable was proved in comparison with a linear trend equation and a four-factor linear regression model. Pessimistic, realistic and optimistic scenarios were developed for forecasting the Consumer Price Index for the situation of the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war until the end of 2023 and separately until the end of 2024.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.29 no.7
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• pp.54-61
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• 2015

This paper presents short-term wind farm power forecasting method using multivariate analysis and time series. Based on factor analysis, the proposed method makes new independent variables which newly composed by raw independent variables such as wind speed, ramp rate, wind power. Newly created variables are used in the time series model for forecasting wind farm power. To demonstrate the improved accuracy, the proposed method is compared with persistence model commonly used as reference in wind power forecasting using data from Jeju Island. The results of case studies are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting method.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.45 no.4
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• pp.511-516
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• 1996

In this paper, weekly maximum power demand forecasting method in consideration of temperature estimation using a time series model was presented. The method removing weekly, seasonal variations on the load and irregularities variation due to unknown factor was presented. The forecasting model that represent the relations between load and temperature which get a numeral expected temperature based on the past 30 years(1961~1990) temperature was constructed. Effect of holiday was removed by using a weekday change ratio, and irregularities variation was removed by using an autoregressive model. The results of load forecasting show the ability of the method in forecasting with good accuracy without suffering from the effect of seasons and holidays. Percentage error load forecasting of all seasons except summer was obtained below 2 percentage. (author). refs., figs., tabs.