• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.57-77
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• 2008

The aim of this paper is to make projection of the demand for export loaded container throughput originating at Incheon port in Korea over the period in question. Systematic analysis is used as a forecasting method instead of quantitative analysis. First of all, the method explores coincident indicators which may reflect the square measure of neighboring industrial complexes which originate/destinate general cargo in export traffic trends. It is noted that in terms of the export loaded container throughput, per unit production scale is intermediated transforming from square measure of production facilities to freight weight in Korea. Consequently, the future progress of the volume can be anticipated relying on the development schemes for developing square measure out of the total square of the industrial complexes. Thus, moving-into percentage of the industrial complexes, percentage of business categories, percentage of capacity and percentage of passing through via Incheon port are adopted and the future traffic demand is projected taking advantage of them.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.1-14
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• 2009

This study predicted Port trade volume by considering Korea's export to China and import Com China separately using ARIMA model (Multiplicative Seasonal ARIMA Model). We predicted monthly Port trade volumes for 27 months from October 2008 to December 2010 using monthly data from September 2008 to January 2001 using monthly data. As a result of prediction, we found that the export volume decreased in January, February, August and September while the import volume decreased in February, March, August and September. As the decrease period was clearly differentiated, it was possible to predict export and import volumes. Therefore, it is believed that the results of this study will generate useful basic data for policy makers or those working for export and import enterprises when they set up policies and management plans. And to improve competitive power of Port trade, this study suggests privatization of Port, improvement of information capability, improvement of competitive power of Port management companies, support for Port distribution companies, plans for active encouragement of transshipment, and management of added value creation policy.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.111-133
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• 2021

Purpose - Although remittance payment in international trade settlements has played a bigger role in recent years, scant research is being done. This study is to zero in on analyzing determinants of international trade payments focused on remittance by constructing a payment prediction model. Design/methodology - This study categorizes the types of trade payments into advance remittance, post remittance, linked remittance, letter of credit, and mixed payment, and analyzes these after constructing a logit model. For empirical analysis, 147 survey data were collected for export manufacturers in Korea, and binominal logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the type of payment method the exporter chooses for trade transactions. Findings - The likelihood of choosing advance remittance increased as the exporters had non-recovery experiences with payments, and decreased as the market power of importers increased. The possibility of post remittance increased when the export amount was large and the character of the buyer was reliable. In the case of linked remittance, it was highly likely to be selected when payment efficiency was important in trade settlement. In addition, when competition among companies in the global market is intense and market uncertainty is high, the possibility of using a letter of credit decreases. It was also found that the greater the export amount, the greater the possibility of choosing advance remittance, and even if the transaction period was longer, exporters using a letter of credit continued to use it. Originality/value - Despite the high proportion of remittances in international trade settlements, it has been hard to find studies that reflect the practical characteristics of remittances. This study classified the types of remittance into advance remittance, post remittance, and linked remittance, and built a trade payment prediction model by adding a letter of credit and mixed payment. In addition, the originality of this study is recognized in that a logistic model was constructed and meaningful results were derived.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.93-119
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• 2009

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the world rice market through structure and conduct frameworks utilizing annual data from 1970 to 2007. The world rice market has been unstable for much of the period post-World War II, with prices volatile and the availability of supplies uncertain. Therefore, analysis of the structure and conduct of the world rice market can provide information to better formulate the direction of future policies. Also, this paper will describe the effects of total production, export rice price, market concentration, and real exchange rate for exporting countries on total export rice volume. On basis of the expected results, the international rice market possesses market power with respects to static calculation and hypothesis test, and it will be demonstrated that exporting countries' currency crucially affects the exporting quantity and market power of those same exporting countries.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.18 no.11
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• pp.285-297
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to examine the trends of import and export of Korea by each continent and to find ways to increase export to Korea in the future. Each continent selected Asia, Europe, North America, Central and South America, and the Middle East. The analysis period was 220 months from January 2000 to April 2018, and data were collected from the KCS. Regression analysis showed that the coefficient was higher in Asia, Europe, North America, Middle East and Latin America. The markets of each continent moved independently of each other and were statistically significant at t statistic and p-value(${\leq}0.01$). As a result of this study, Asia and North America have been major export markets in Korea. Europe, the Middle East and Central and South America are emerging as new markets in Korea. In order to increase Korea's exports in the future, there is a need for continued interest in Asian markets including China & Southeast Asia.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.3-29
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• 1990

Korean input-output tables for 1975 and 1985 are first deflated into 1975 constant domestic prices(hypothetical terms), and the constant price I-O data are used to decompose the sources of industrial growth and structural change during the 1975-85 period. Using the same methodology, our results for the 1975-85 period are then linked to the results for the earlier period(1955-75) in order to analyze and evaluate the "demand-side" sources of industrialization over the past three decades. The results from the decomposition of the whole economy indicate that over three decades(1955-85) the relative contribution of domestic demand expansion (DDE) to growth and structural change has continuously declined while the contribution of export expansion(EE) has generally continued to rise. The contribution of import-substitution(IS) which had been significantly higher than that of EE during 1955-63 declined substantially, remaining at an insignificantly low level during the period following 1963. Although it is well known that the government's industrial policy in the 1970s emphasized import-substitution in heavy and chemical industries, no significant changes in the export-oriented growth pattern could be observed even for that period, except for a minor decline in the relative contribution of EE. This may be attributed to the substantially larger, backward-linkage effects of EE than that of IS. The sources-of-growth decompositions for major branches of the manufacturing sector generally support the major conclusions derived from the decomposition for the whole economy. The IS contribution which had been significantly high in almost all manufacturing branches during the 1955-63 period declined to low levels in all but two branches, heavy industry and machinery, during the following period. On the other hand, the relative contribution of EE showed a continuous rise in almost all manufacturing branches(except food processing). Finally, the sources of growth for 1975-85 which were decomposed by detailed sub branches, are analyzed by correlating them with changes in relative prices and industrial protection rates by sub-branches for the same period. A major result is that contrary to general expectations, the EE contributions by sub-branch are not negatively correlated with the nominal rates of protection and/or the effective rates of protection for the same sub-branches. It is also found that no statistically significant, positive correlation exists between IS contributions and nominal protection rates or effective protection rates. These unexpected results may be explained by the peculiar nature of the Korean system of industrial incentives for the past period.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.217-240
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• 2015

This paper uses the modified gravity model of international trade to examine the impact of ODA on the export of Korea to 28 aid recipients. In this perspective, the study includes recipient's economic size, trade openness, population, donor's scale of aid and distance between them as key determinants of the export of Korea by using panel data over the period of 2005-2012. To do this task, important econometric methods are fulfilled to test the model adequately, such as panel unit root and panel co-integration test. In addition, the study incorporated the panel OLS, panel GLM and panel EGLS methods. The empirical analysis clearly showed that an increase in Korea's ODA promotes its own exports. The coefficients of recipients's per capita GDP, population and trade openness have a positive impact on Korea's export respectively, while distance between them has a negative impact. Regarding regional dummy variables, aid for the region of Africa and America have a negative impact on Korea's export. Overall, the main implication of this study is that even if it emphasized Korea's economic interests as determinants of ODA disbursements, but it also suggests that an improvement of recipient's economic development, income distribution and educational environment can be an important concern in the future.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.11 no.8
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• pp.31-37
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• 2013

Purpose - This study aims to strengthen the economic cooperation between Korea and Japan by studying the pattern of trade between them and identifying drawbacks. Thus, it aims to enable trade expansion by analyzing the factors that affect trade and identifying ways to improve them. If economic cooperation is improved, transport and communication costs, as well as the transaction cost of economic exchanges, can be minimized. Research design, data, methodology - The trade intensity index developed by the Japanese economist Yamazawa under his trade intensity theory was used to analyze the trade decision factor of Korea and Japan. Trade structure and decision factors were analyzed for the target period of 2000 to 2012, and the period ranging from 2000 to 2005 was compared with the period ranging from 2005 to 2012. This paper is an analysis of the resultant time series. The data were collected from Korea Traders Association, Korea Customs Office, and UN Comtrade (2000, 2005, 2012) and whole table indexes were calculated by the author. Trade related index was used to analyze the comparative advantage based on time-series analysis statistics data (2000. 2005, 2012) through an analysis of the trade intensity index (TII), revealed comparative advantage index (RCA), and trade specialization index (TSI). Results - The trade intensity index of the industries of Japan and Korea is 1.814 in 2000. The export ratio of Japan against China was slightly higher at 2.128. TII is indicated to be 1.600 in both 2005 and 2012, which means export ratio of Japan against China is considerably maintained in 2005; however, export ratio of Japan against China is diminishing gradually as its index is 1.600 in 2012. Second, as per the trade specialization index of the ship industry in Japan and China, TSI is indicated to be -0.818 in 2000, -0.308 in 2005, and -0.847 in 2012. Generally, it is still closer to -1 and especially, we can see it is more closer to -1 in 2012. Third, as per the revealed comparative advantage index of the ship industry in Japan and China, the RCA index in 2012 is 0.007, which is quite far from 1 as compared to the value in 2000 and 2005. Hence, the Japanese ship industry has a significant comparative disadvantage against the Chinese ship industry. Conclusions - Both countries invest most of their capital in the shipping industry. It is the shipping industry that receives the most capital investment in the two countries is invested and governmental policy funds are needed. As both countries have large shipping industries, this research project is very valuable. Japan and China are compared because they are Korea's neighbors. Also, Korea is strategically located in Northeast Asia and has a history of foreign intrusion from several countries. Therefore, the purpose of this research study is to understand the trade structures of both countries and intensify the economic cooperation between Japan and China.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.93-143
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• 2010

This paper estimates the impact of Japan's economic sanction on DPRK trade in the 2000s. It conceptualizes the effects of sanction on DPRK trade, econometrically tests whether such effects exist in case of Japan's sanction using currently available DPRK trade statistics, and measures the size of the effects by correcting and reconfiguring the deficiencies of the currently available DPRK trade statistics. The main findings of the paper are as follows. First, Japan's sanction can have two different effects on DPRK trade: 'Sanction Country Effect' and "Third Country Effect.' The former means that the sanction diminishes DPRK trade with Japan while the latter refers to the effects on DPRK trade with other countries as well. The third country effect can arise not simply because the DPRK changes its trade routes to circumvent the sanction, but because the sanction forces the DPRK to readjust its major trade items and patterns. Second, currently no official DPRK trade statistics are available. Thus, the so-called mirror data referring to DPRK trading partners' statistics should be employed for the analysis of the sanction effects. However, all currently available mirror data suffer from three fundamental problems: 1) they may omit the real trade partners of the DPRK; 2) they may confuse ROK trade with DPRK trade; 3) they cannot distinguish non-commercial trade from commercial trade, whereas only the latter concerns Japan's sanction. Considering those problems, we have to adopt the following method in order to reach a reasonable conclusion about the sanction effect. That is, we should repeat the same analysis using all different mirror data currently available, which include KOTRA, IMF and UN Commodity Trade Statistics, and then discuss only the common results from them. Third, currently available mirror data make the following points. 1) DPRK trade is well explained by the gravity model. 2) Japan's sanction has not only the sanction country effect but also the third country effect on DPRK trade. 3) The third country effect occurs differently on DPRK export and import. In case of export, the mirror statistics reveal positive (+) third country effects on all of the major trade partners of the DPRK, including South Korea, China and Thailand. However, on DPRK import, such third country effects are not statistically significant even for South Korea and China. 4) This suggests that Japan's sanction has greater effects on DPRK import rather than its export. Fourth, as far as DPRK export is concerned, it is possible to resolve the abovementioned fundamental problems of mirror data and thus reconstruct more accurate statistics on DPRK trade. Those reconstructed statistics lead us to following conclusions. 1) Japan's economic sanction diminished DPRK's export to Japan from 2004 to 2006 by 103 million dollars on annual average (Sanction Country Effect). It comprises around 60 percent of DPRK's export to Japan in 2003. 2) However, for the same period, the DPRK diverted its exports to other countries to cope up with Japan's sanction, and as a result its export to other countries increased by 85 million dollars on annual average (Third Country Effect). 3) This means that more than 80 per cent of the sanction country effect was made up for by the third country effect. And the actual size of impact that Japan's sanction made on DPRK export in total was merely 30 million dollars on annual average. 4) The third country effect occurred mostly in inter-Korean trade. In fact, Japan's sanction increased DPRK export to the ROK by 72 million dollars on annual average. In contrast, there was no statistically significant increase in DPRK export to China caused by Japan's sanction. 5) It means that the DPRK confronted Japan's sanction and mitigated its impact primarily by using inter-Korean trade and thus the ROK. Fifth, two things should be noted concerning the fourth results above. 1) The results capture the third country effect caused only by trade transfer. Facing Japan's sanction, the DPRK could transfer its existing trade with Japan to other countries. Also it could change its main export items and increase the export of those new items to other countries as mentioned in the first result. However, the fourth results above reflect only the former, not the latter. 2) Although Japan's sanction did not make a huge impact on DPRK export, it might not be necessarily true for DPRK import. Indeed the currently available mirror statistics suggest that Japan's sanction has greater effects on DPRK import. Hence it would not be wise to argue that Japan's sanction did not have much impact on DPRK trade in general, simply using the fourth result above.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF PACKAGING SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.83-91
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• 2009

It is very difficult to export the fresh agricultural products to long distance countries such as USA and EU without any damage. Fresh products exporting would overcome very severe conditions such as hot and cold weather changes, heavy vibrations with rolling and pitching during the target distribution period, therefore, the packaging needs the immobility of products in the container and the keeping its quality by packaging materials or methods under any surrounding environments, especially. The physical strength of outer box should be designated according to its own characteristics for agricultural product packaging. Packaging dimension which would be fit to standard pallet is also very important factor to reduce the distribution cost. There have been many agricultural products researches for export packaging to the USA so far. However they have never got desirable results which enough to apply it in real. The main purpose of this research is to develop optimum compressive strength and optimum dimension of corrugated fiberboard box which would be used to USA export packaging of fresh melon as well as Japan.