• Title/Summary/Keyword: Expected Returns

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Left-tail Risk and Expected Stock Returns in the Korean Stock Market (국내 주식시장에서 주가급락위험이 기대수익률에 미치는 영향)

  • Cheon, Yong-Ho;Ban, Ju-Il
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.11
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    • pp.320-332
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    • 2021
  • This paper investigates the influence of stock-level left-tail risk, which is defined using Value-at-Risk(VaR) estimates of past one-year daily stock returns, in the expected stock returns in the Korean stock market. Our results are summarized as follows: First, monthly-constructed zero-cost portfolios that buy (shortsell) the highest (lowest) left-tail risk decile in the previous month exhibit an average monthly return (called left-tail risk premium) of -2.29%. Second, Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions suggest that left-tail risk in the previous month shows significant and negative explanatory power over return in this month, after controlling for various firm characteristics such as firm size, B/M, market beta, liquidity, maximum daily return, idiosyncratic volatility, and skewness. Third, the stocks with larger recent month loss have lower returns in the next month. Fourth, the magnitude of left-tail risk premium is negatively related with lagged market-level volatility. These results support the hypothesis from a perspective of behavioral finance that the overpricing of stocks with left-tail risk is attributed to the investors' underreaction to it.

Analysis the Determinants of Risk Factor Model for the Jordanian Banking Stocks

  • GHARAIBEH, Omar Khlaif;AL-QUDAH, Ali Mustafa
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.615-626
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of risk factor model for the Jordanian banking stocks from 2006 to 2018. This study employs the Five-factor Fama and French's (2015) methodology and uses the annual returns of all Jordanian banks including 2 Islamic and 13 commercial banks listed on the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) over a period of 13 years. The results show that the factors of value and profitability have an important role in evaluating the expected return in Jordanian banking stocks. Moreover, the value HML and profitability RMW factors provide the highest cumulative returns among these five factors, while the investment CMA and size SMB factors are still around zero cumulative returns. For the market factor, it provides the least negative cumulative returns. The results showed that the largest correlation is between value and investment factors which means that banks with a high book to market value become banks with a conservative investment strategy. The result of the sub-periods confirmed the value and profitability results. The findings of this study suggest that the five-factor Fama and French model is the choice of building an investment portfolio, especially the factors of value and profitability.

A Coordinated Planning Model with Price-Dependent Demand

  • Nagarur, Nagendra N.;Iaprasert, Wipanan
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2009
  • This paper presents a coordinated planning model of price-dependent demand for a single-manufacturer and a single-retailer. The demand is assumed to be normally distributed, with its mean being price dependent. The manufacturer and retailer coordinate with each other to jointly and simultaneously determine the retail selling price and the retailer order quantity to maximize the joint expected total profit. This model is then compared to a 'returns' policy model where manufacturer buys back unsold items from the retailers. It is shown that the optimal total profit is higher for coordinated planning model than that for the returns policy model, in which the retail price is set by the retailer. A compensation or profit sharing scheme is then suggested and it is shown that the coordinated model with profit sharing yields a 'win-win' situation. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the profit patterns for both linear and nonlinear demand functions. The coordinated planning model, in addition, has a lower optimal price than for a returns policy model, which would result in higher sales, thus expanding the markets for the whole supply chain.

Search Frequency in Internet Portal Site and the Expected Stock Returns (포털사이트에서의 피검색빈도와 주식수익률)

  • Ban, Ju-Il;Kim, Myeong-Ae;Cheon, Yong-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.73-83
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    • 2016
  • NAVER provides search frequency data of search terms via its DataLab service (http://datalab.naver.com/). Using this data, this paper examines the relation between the search frequency of firm's name and its future stock returns. Our results show that the search frequency of firm's name is a new investor attention measure, which is different from previously explored attention measures such as extreme returns, turnover, etc. Firms that go through higher search frequency this week tend to have higher returns in the next week. We do not find return reversal in the long run for the firms with higher search frequency. Furthermore, the extent to which search frequency affects stock returns becomes more pronounced following market-wide attention grabbing events. Our results indicate that search frequency incorporates information for future stock returns.

Saddlepoint approximations for the risk measures of linear portfolios based on generalized hyperbolic distributions (일반화 쌍곡분포 기반 선형 포트폴리오 위험측도에 대한 안장점근사)

  • Na, Jonghwa
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.959-967
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    • 2016
  • Distributional assumptions on equity returns play a key role in valuation theories for derivative securities. Elberlein and Keller (1995) investigated the distributional form of compound returns and found that some of standard assumptions can not be justified. Instead, Generalized Hyperbolic (GH) distribution fit the empirical returns with high accuracy. Hu and Kercheval (2007) also show that the normal distribution leads to VaR (Value at Risk) estimate that significantly underestimate the realized empirical values, while the GH distributions do not. We consider saddlepoint approximations to estimate the VaR and the ES (Expected Shortfall) which frequently encountered in finance and insurance as measures of risk management. We supposed GH distributions instead of normal ones, as underlying distribution of linear portfolios. Simulation results show the saddlepoint approximations are very accurate than normal ones.

The Predictive Power of Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Models: Evidence from Pakistani Banks

  • SALIM, Muhammad;HASHMI, Muhammad Arsalan;ABDULLAH, A.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.11
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2021
  • This paper compares the performance of Fama-French three-factor and five-factor models using a dataset of 20 Pakistani commercial banks for the period 2011 to 2020. We focus on an emerging economy as the findings from earlier studies on developed countries cannot be generalized in emerging markets. For empirical analysis, twelve portfolios were developed based on size, market capitalization, investment strategy, and growth. Subsequently, we constructed five Fama-French factors namely, RM, SMB, HML, RMW, and CMA. The OLS regression technique with robust standard errors was applied to compare the predictive power of both the Fama-French models. Further, we also compared the mean-variance efficiency of the Fama-French models through the GRS test. Our empirical analysis provides three unique and interesting findings. First, both asset pricing models have similar predictive power to explain the expected portfolio returns in most cases. Second, our results from the GRS test suggest that there is no noticeable difference in the mean-variance efficiency of one asset pricing model over the other. Third, we find that all factors of both Fama-French models are statistically significant and are important for explaining the volatility of expected commercial bank returns in the context of Pakistan.

The Impact of Industry-level Competition on the Excess Stock Returns due to Changes in Cash Holdings (산업 내 경쟁정도가 보유현금의 변화에 따른 초과수익률에 미치는 영향)

  • Cho, Jung Eun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.163-169
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    • 2019
  • This study examined whether industry-level competition affects excess stock returns because of changes in cash holdings. Competitive inter-company threats increase the possibility of the manager's replacement, and function to induce management to make their best efforts, resulting in the amount and quality of the information provided by the enterprise increasing. Therefore, as competition intensifies, agency problems are reduced and stock returns increase because the company's cash holdings are expected to increase. However, there is a view that firms in industries with severe competition tend to have high information asymmetry because competitors may compete in more favorable positions by using detailed information disclosed by the competing firms. Accordingly, as market competition intensifies, the excess stock returns resulting from increased cash holdings are expected to decline. These results show that excess stock returns because of increases in cash holdings increase as the degree of competition in the industry intensifies, thus supporting the positive effect of market competition. Overall, the results of this study provide an understanding that market competition plays an effective external governance mechanism and that investors positively evaluate the cash held by companies with severe industry competition.

An Study on the Relation of the Management Ownership on Corporate Performance and Stock Returns in China Firms (경영자 지분율과 기업성과 및 주식수익률에 대한 연구 - 중국기업을 대상으로-)

  • Oh, Sang-Hui
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.15-29
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    • 2015
  • This study aims to empirically analyze the relationship between management ownership and corporate performance and stock returns indicates the ownership structure of the company to target the listed companies in China over the past five years from 2010 to 2014. The empirical results are as follows: Management ownership gave an impact on stock returns, especially high-stakes management ownership showed significant positive effect with the stock returns. But management ownership don't have significant positive effect with ROA. The contribution of this study is as follows. Chinese companies have the efficiency of the management through the separation of ownership and management in accordance with the changes realized in capitalism. And this study is reflecting the fact of China using the Chinese data. This study has limitations of that. Management ownership measurement of governance structure don't expand the range, and measurement of governance structure is just one. The following studies are expected to be more sophisticated by comparison of countries.

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Investment Performance of Markowitz's Portfolio Selection Model over the Accuracy of the Input Parameters in the Korean Stock Market (한국 주식시장에서 마코위츠 포트폴리오 선정 모형의 입력 변수의 정확도에 따른 투자 성과 연구)

  • Kim, Hongseon;Jung, Jongbin;Kim, Seongmoon
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.35-52
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    • 2013
  • Markowitz's portfolio selection model is used to construct an optimal portfolio which has minimum variance, while satisfying a minimum required expected return. The model uses estimators based on analysis of historical data to estimate the returns, standard deviations, and correlation coefficients of individual stocks being considered for investment. However, due to the inaccuracies involved in estimations, the true optimality of a portfolio constructed using the model is questionable. To investigate the effect of estimation inaccuracy on actual portfolio performance, we study the changes in a portfolio's realized return and standard deviation as the accuracy of the estimations for each stock's return, standard deviation, and correlation coefficient is increased. Furthermore, we empirically analyze the portfolio's performance by comparing it with the performance of active mutual funds that are being traded in the Korean stock market and the KOSPI benchmark index, in terms of portfolio returns, standard deviations of returns, and Sharpe ratios. Our results suggest that, among the three input parameters, the accuracy of the estimated returns of individual stocks has the largest effect on performance, while the accuracy of the estimates of the standard deviation of each stock's returns and the correlation coefficient between different stocks have smaller effects. In addition, it is shown that even a small increase in the accuracy of the estimated return of individual stocks improves the portfolio's performance substantially, suggesting that Markowitz's model can be more effectively applied in real-life investments with just an incremental effort to increase estimation accuracy.

The Gains To Bidding Firms' Stock Returns From Merger (기업합병의 성과에 영향을 주는 요인에 대한 실증적 연구)

  • Kim, Yong-Kap
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.23
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    • pp.41-74
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    • 2007
  • In Korea, corporate merger activities were activated since 1980, and nowadays(particuarly since 1986) the changes in domestic and international economic circumstances have made corporate managers have strong interests in merger. Korea and America have different business environments and it is easily conceivable that there exists many differences in motives, methods, and effects of mergers between the two countries. According to recent studies on takeover bids in America, takeover bids have information effects, tax implications, and co-insurance effects, and the form of payment(cash versus securities), the relative size of target and bidder, the leverage effect, Tobin's q, number of bidders(single versus multiple bidder), the time period (before 1968, 1968-1980, 1981 and later), and the target firm reaction (hostile versus friendly) are important determinants of the magnitude of takeover gains and their distribution between targets and bidders at the announcement of takeover bids. This study examines the theory of takeover bids, the status quo and problems of merger in Korea, and then investigates how the announcement of merger are reflected in common stock returns of bidding firms, finally explores empirically the factors influencing abnormal returns of bidding firms' stock price. The hypotheses of this study are as follows ; Shareholders of bidding firms benefit from mergers. And common stock returns of bidding firms at the announcement of takeover bids, shows significant differences according to the condition of the ratio of target size relative to bidding firm, whether the target being a member of the conglomerate to which bidding firm belongs, whether the target being a listed company, the time period(before 1986, 1986, and later), the number of bidding firm's stock in exchange for a stock of the target, whether the merger being a horizontal and vertical merger or a conglomerate merger, and the ratios of debt to equity capital of target and bidding firm. The data analyzed in this study were drawn from public announcements of proposals to acquire a target firm by means of merger. The sample contains all bidding firms which were listed in the stock market and also engaged in successful mergers in the period 1980 through 1992 for which there are daily stock returns. A merger bid was considered successful if it resulted in a completed merger and the target firm disappeared as a separate entity. The final sample contains 113 acquiring firms. The research hypotheses examined in this study are tested by applying an event-type methodology similar to that described in Dodd and Warner. The ordinary-least-squares coefficients of the market-model regression were estimated over the period t=-135 to t=-16 relative to the date of the proposal's initial announcement, t=0. Daily abnormal common stock returns were calculated for each firm i over the interval t=-15 to t=+15. A daily average abnormal return(AR) for each day t was computed. Average cumulative abnormal returns($CART_{T_1,T_2}$) were also derived by summing the $AR_t's$ over various intervals. The expected values of $AR_t$ and $CART_{T_1,T_2}$ are zero in the absence of abnormal performance. The test statistics of $AR_t$ and $CAR_{T_1,T_2}$ are based on the average standardized abnormal return($ASAR_t$) and the average standardized cumulative abnormal return ($ASCAR_{T_1,T_2}$), respectively. Assuming that the individual abnormal returns are normal and independent across t and across securities, the statistics $Z_t$ and $Z_{T_1,T_2}$ which follow a unit-normal distribution(Dodd and Warner), are used to test the hypotheses that the average standardized abnormal returns and the average cumulative standardized abnormal returns equal zero.

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