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Performance of Investment Strategy using Investor-specific Transaction Information and Machine Learning (투자자별 거래정보와 머신러닝을 활용한 투자전략의 성과)

  • Kim, Kyung Mock;Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.65-82
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    • 2021
  • Stock market investors are generally split into foreign investors, institutional investors, and individual investors. Compared to individual investor groups, professional investor groups such as foreign investors have an advantage in information and financial power and, as a result, foreign investors are known to show good investment performance among market participants. The purpose of this study is to propose an investment strategy that combines investor-specific transaction information and machine learning, and to analyze the portfolio investment performance of the proposed model using actual stock price and investor-specific transaction data. The Korea Exchange offers daily information on the volume of purchase and sale of each investor to securities firms. We developed a data collection program in C# programming language using an API provided by Daishin Securities Cybosplus, and collected 151 out of 200 KOSPI stocks with daily opening price, closing price and investor-specific net purchase data from January 2, 2007 to July 31, 2017. The self-organizing map model is an artificial neural network that performs clustering by unsupervised learning and has been introduced by Teuvo Kohonen since 1984. We implement competition among intra-surface artificial neurons, and all connections are non-recursive artificial neural networks that go from bottom to top. It can also be expanded to multiple layers, although many fault layers are commonly used. Linear functions are used by active functions of artificial nerve cells, and learning rules use Instar rules as well as general competitive learning. The core of the backpropagation model is the model that performs classification by supervised learning as an artificial neural network. We grouped and transformed investor-specific transaction volume data to learn backpropagation models through the self-organizing map model of artificial neural networks. As a result of the estimation of verification data through training, the portfolios were rebalanced monthly. For performance analysis, a passive portfolio was designated and the KOSPI 200 and KOSPI index returns for proxies on market returns were also obtained. Performance analysis was conducted using the equally-weighted portfolio return, compound interest rate, annual return, Maximum Draw Down, standard deviation, and Sharpe Ratio. Buy and hold returns of the top 10 market capitalization stocks are designated as a benchmark. Buy and hold strategy is the best strategy under the efficient market hypothesis. The prediction rate of learning data using backpropagation model was significantly high at 96.61%, while the prediction rate of verification data was also relatively high in the results of the 57.1% verification data. The performance evaluation of self-organizing map grouping can be determined as a result of a backpropagation model. This is because if the grouping results of the self-organizing map model had been poor, the learning results of the backpropagation model would have been poor. In this way, the performance assessment of machine learning is judged to be better learned than previous studies. Our portfolio doubled the return on the benchmark and performed better than the market returns on the KOSPI and KOSPI 200 indexes. In contrast to the benchmark, the MDD and standard deviation for portfolio risk indicators also showed better results. The Sharpe Ratio performed higher than benchmarks and stock market indexes. Through this, we presented the direction of portfolio composition program using machine learning and investor-specific transaction information and showed that it can be used to develop programs for real stock investment. The return is the result of monthly portfolio composition and asset rebalancing to the same proportion. Better outcomes are predicted when forming a monthly portfolio if the system is enforced by rebalancing the suggested stocks continuously without selling and re-buying it. Therefore, real transactions appear to be relevant.

Korean Ginseng in "The Veritable Records of King Sejong" (『세종실록』을 통해 본 고려인삼)

  • Joo, Seungjae
    • Journal of Ginseng Culture
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    • v.3
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    • pp.11-37
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    • 2021
  • Korean ginseng is the one of the most famous medicinal herbs globally and has long been a representative item of East Asian trade, including across China and Japan. Since Joseon (1392-1910) ginseng trade was entirely controlled by the state, The Veritable Records of the Joseon Dynasty are a valuable resource that can shed light on the history of the ginseng industry at that time. By studying the subsection "The Veritable Records of King Sejong" (世宗實錄), when ginseng was used even more widely, we assess the purpose and scale of its trade in the 15th century, identify its original listing in the geographical appendix, develop a distribution map, and explore similarities to current ginseng cultivation areas. During the reign of King Sejong (1418-1450), ginseng was sent to China as a tribute 101 times, with a combined weight of 7,060 kilograms, with less than one-third of that amount given to Japan and Okinawa. It was used to cover the travel expenses of foreign envoys and servants, but this can be seen to gradually decrease after the regnal mid-term, primarily due to a decrease in the amount of ginseng being collected. At the time, there were 113 areas of naturally growing ginseng as listed in the records' geographical appendix, including 12 recorded in the 'tributes' category: Yeongdeok-gun, Yeongju, and Cheongsong-gun in Gyeongsangbuk-do; Ulju-gun and Ulsan in Gyeongsangnam-do; Jeongeup, Wanju-gun, and Jangsu-gun in Jeollabuk-do; Hwasun-gun in Jeollanam-do; Goksan-gun and Sinpyeong-gun in Hwanghaebuk-do; Jeongju and Taecheon-gun in Pyeonganbuk-do; and Jaseong-gun and Junggang-gun in Jagang-do. A total of 101 places are recorded in the 'medicinal herbs' category, located throughout the mountains of the eight Joseon provinces, except the islands. In comparison with current ginseng cultivation sites, many of these historical areas are either consistent with or adjacent to contemporary locations. The geographical appendix to "The Veritable Records of King Sejong" was compiled in the early days of the king's reign (1432) when there was a lot of wild ginseng. The appendix is a valuable resource that indicates the possibility of growing ginseng on the Korean Peninsula in the future. The apparently natural habitats in the south, where ginseng is not currently cultivated, could be candidates for the future. Moreover, areas in the north where ginseng has not been grown, except Kaesǒng, could be a good alternative under sustainable inter-Korean exchange should cultivation sites move north due to climate warming.

The Effect of Carbon Dioxide Leaked from Geological Storage Site on Soil Fertility: A Study on Artificial Leakage (지중 저장지로부터 누출된 이산화탄소가 토양 비옥도에 미치는 영향: 인위 누출 연구)

  • Baek, Seung Han;Lee, Sang-Woo;Lee, Woo-Chun;Yun, Seong-Taek;Kim, Soon-Oh
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.409-425
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    • 2021
  • Carbon dioxide has been known to be a typical greenhouse gas causing global warming, and a number of efforts have been proposed to reduce its concentration in the atmosphere. Among them, carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) has been taken into great account to accomplish the target reduction of carbon dioxide. In order to commercialize the CCS, its safety should be secured. In particular, if the stored carbon dioxide is leaked in the arable land, serious problems could come up in terms of crop growth. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of carbon dioxide leaked from storage sites on soil fertility. The leakage of carbon dioxide was simulated using the facility of its artificial injection into soils in the laboratory. Several soil chemical properties, such as pH, cation exchange capacity, electrical conductivity, the concentrations of exchangeable cations, nitrogen (N) (total-N, nitrate-N, and ammonia-N), phosphorus (P) (total-P and available-P), sulfur (S) (total-S and available-S), available-boron (B), and the contents of soil organic matter, were monitored as indicators of soil fertility during the period of artificial injection of carbon dioxide. Two kinds of soils, such as non-cultivated and cultivated soils, were compared in the artificial injection tests, and the latter included maize- and soybean-cultivated soils. The non-cultivated soil (NCS) was sandy soil of 42.6% porosity, the maize-cultivated soil (MCS) and soybean-cultivated soil (SCS) were loamy sand having 46.8% and 48.0% of porosities, respectively. The artificial injection facility had six columns: one was for the control without carbon dioxide injection, and the other five columns were used for the injections tests. Total injection periods for NCS and MCS/SCS were 60 and 70 days, respectively, and artificial rainfall events were simulated using one pore volume after the 12-day injection for the NCS and the 14-day injection for the MCS/SCS. After each rainfall event, the soil fertility indicators were measured for soil and leachate solution, and they were compared before and after the injection of carbon dioxide. The results indicate that the residual concentrations of exchangeable cations, total-N, total-P, the content of soil organic matter, and electrical conductivity were not likely to be affected by the injection of carbon dioxide. However, the residual concentrations of nitrate-N, ammonia-N, available-P, available-S, and available-B tended to decrease after the carbon dioxide injection, indicating that soil fertility might be reduced. Meanwhile, soil pH did not seem to be influenced due to the buffering capacity of soils, but it is speculated that a long-term leakage of carbon dioxide might bring about soil acidification.

On Using Near-surface Remote Sensing Observation for Evaluation Gross Primary Productivity and Net Ecosystem CO2 Partitioning (근거리 원격탐사 기법을 이용한 총일차생산량 추정 및 순생태계 CO2 교환량 배분의 정확도 평가에 관하여)

  • Park, Juhan;Kang, Minseok;Cho, Sungsik;Sohn, Seungwon;Kim, Jongho;Kim, Su-Jin;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Kang, Mingu;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.251-267
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    • 2021
  • Remotely sensed vegetation indices (VIs) are empirically related with gross primary productivity (GPP) in various spatio-temporal scales. The uncertainties in GPP-VI relationship increase with temporal resolution. Uncertainty also exists in the eddy covariance (EC)-based estimation of GPP, arising from the partitioning of the measured net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) into GPP and ecosystem respiration (RE). For two forests and two agricultural sites, we correlated the EC-derived GPP in various time scales with three different near-surface remotely sensed VIs: (1) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), (2) enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and (3) near infrared reflectance from vegetation (NIRv) along with NIRvP (i.e., NIRv multiplied by photosynthetically active radiation, PAR). Among the compared VIs, NIRvP showed highest correlation with half-hourly and monthly GPP at all sites. The NIRvP was used to test the reliability of GPP derived by two different NEE partitioning methods: (1) original KoFlux methods (GPPOri) and (2) machine-learning based method (GPPANN). GPPANN showed higher correlation with NIRvP at half-hourly time scale, but there was no difference at daily time scale. The NIRvP-GPP correlation was lower under clear sky conditions due to co-limitation of GPP by other environmental conditions such as air temperature, vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture. However, under cloudy conditions when photosynthesis is mainly limited by radiation, the use of NIRvP was more promising to test the credibility of NEE partitioning methods. Despite the necessity of further analyses, the results suggest that NIRvP can be used as the proxy of GPP at high temporal-scale. However, for the VIs-based GPP estimation with high temporal resolution to be meaningful, complex systems-based analysis methods (related to systems thinking and self-organization that goes beyond the empirical VIs-GPP relationship) should be developed.

The Dynamics of CO2 Budget in Gwangneung Deciduous Old-growth Forest: Lessons from the 15 years of Monitoring (광릉 낙엽활엽수 노령림의 CO2 수지 역학: 15년 관측으로부터의 교훈)

  • Yang, Hyunyoung;Kang, Minseok;Kim, Joon;Ryu, Daun;Kim, Su-Jin;Chun, Jung-Hwa;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Park, Chan Woo;Yun, Soon Jin
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.198-221
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    • 2021
  • After large-scale reforestation in the 1960s and 1970s, forests in Korea have gradually been aging. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange of old-growth forests is theoretically near zero; however, it can be a CO2 sink or source depending on the intervention of disturbance or management. In this study, we report the CO2 budget dynamics of the Gwangneung deciduous old-growth forest (GDK) in Korea and examined the following two questions: (1) is the preserved GDK indeed CO2 neutral as theoretically known? and (2) can we explain the dynamics of CO2 budget by the common mechanisms reported in the literature? To answer, we analyzed the 15-year long CO2 flux data measured by eddy covariance technique along with other biometeorological data at the KoFlux GDK site from 2006 to 2020. The results showed that (1) GDK switched back-and-forth between sink and source of CO2 but averaged to be a week CO2 source (and turning to a moderate CO2 source for the recent five years) and (2) the interannual variability of solar radiation, growing season length, and leaf area index showed a positive correlation with that of gross primary production (GPP) (R2=0.32~0.45); whereas the interannual variability of both air and surface temperature was not significantly correlated with that of ecosystem respiration (RE). Furthermore, the machine learning-based model trained using the dataset of early monitoring period (first 10 years) failed to reproduce the observed interannual variations of GPP and RE for the recent five years. Biomass data analysis suggests that carbon emissions from coarse woody debris may have contributed partly to the conversion to a moderate CO2 source. To properly understand and interpret the long-term CO2 budget dynamics of GDK, new framework of analysis and modeling based on complex systems science is needed. Also, it is important to maintain the flux monitoring and data quality along with the monitoring of coarse woody debris and disturbances.

Comparative Analysis of the Keywords in Taekwondo News Articles by Year: Applying Topic Modeling Method (태권도 뉴스기사의 연도별 주제어 비교분석: 토픽모델링 적용)

  • Jeon, Minsoo;Lim, Hyosung
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.11
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    • pp.575-583
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to analyze Taekwondo trends according to news articles by year by applying topic modeling. In order to examine the Taekwondo trend through media reports, articles including news articles and Taekwondo specialized media articles were collected through Big Kinds of the Korea Press Foundation. The search period was divided into three sections: before 2000, 2001~2010, and 2011~2020. A total of 12,124 items were selected as research data. For topic analysis, pre-processing was performed, and topic analysis was performed using the LDA algorithm. In this case, python 3 was applied for all analysis. First, as a result of analyzing the topics of media articles by year, 'World' was the most common keyword before 2000. 'South and North Korea' was next common and 'Olympic' was the third commonest topic. From 2001 to 2010, 'World' was the most common topic, followed by 'Association' and 'World Taekwondo'. From 2011 to 2020, 'World', 'Demonstration', and 'Kukkiwon' was the most common topic in that order. Second, as a result of analyzing news articles before 2000 by topic modeling, topics were divided into two categories. Specifically, Topic 1 was selected as 'South-North Korea sports exchange' and Topic 2 was selected as 'Adoption of Olympic demonstration events'. Third, as a result of analyzing news articles from 2001 to 2010 by topic modeling, three topics were selected. Topic 1 was selected as 'Taekwondo Demonstration Performance and Corruption', Topic 2 was selected as 'Muju Taekwondo Park Creation', and Topic 3 was selected as 'World Taekwondo Festival'. Fourth, as a result of analyzing news articles from 2011 to 2020 by topic modeling, three topics were selected. Topic 1 was selected as 'Successful Hosting of the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics', Topic 2 was selected as 'North-South Korea Taekwondo Joint Demonstration Performance', and Topic 3 was selected as '2017 Muju World Taekwondo Championships'.

A Study on Environmental Impact Assessment Guidelines for Marine Environments in Harbor Construction Projects (항만건설사업의 해양환경 환경영향평가 가이드라인 개발 연구)

  • Maeng, Junho;Kim, Taeyun;Lee, Haemi
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.141-160
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    • 2022
  • The harbor construction projects can lead to various marine environmental problems including habitat degradation and loss, marine water pollution, change of flow patterns, erosion, scour, sedimentation, and so on. The EIA is a measure to prevent various environmental problems in advance from examining and minimizing the environmental impacts before the proposed developments are implemented. In addition, institutions reviewing EIA reports have made efforts to conduct scientific and standardized EIA by applying EIA guidelines for each project. This study aims to create a EIA guideline focusing on the harbor construction projects. Based on the review comments of the harbor construction EIA reports for the past 13 years (2009-2021) and the EIA guidelines of different types of projects, we identified the marine environmental problems and provided the appropriate guideline. This guideline summarizes and presents the contents which must be reviewed in the baseline condition survey, impact assessment, mitigation, and post-environmental impact investigation in the fields of marine fauna and flora, marine physics, and marine water and sediment quality. In the case of a baseline condition survey of marine fauna and flora, a method for selecting survey points considering the characteristics of sea area and project was presented. When estimating the impact of marine fauna and flora, we presented methods for predicting the impact on them due to the spread of suspended sediments and the damage to benthic habitats due to dredging and reclamation. In consideration of the characteristics of the sea area, we divided the survey items of the marine physics into essential items and supplementary items. In predicting the impact of marine physics, various methods for major issues such as seawater circulation, suspended sediment and bottom sediment transport, water temperature and salinity diffusion, seawater exchange, wave transformation, harbor tranquility, and shoreline change were presented. The research results will contribute to protect the marine environment by inducing more systematic and scientific surveys, impact assessments, and mitigation in the EIA process.

Technical and Economical Assessment of Adsorption and Reverse Osmosis for Removal of Ammonia from Groundwater of Kathmandu, Nepal (네팔 카트만두 지하수에서 암모늄 제거를 위한 이온 교환 및 역삼투의 기술 및 경제 평가)

  • Kunwar, Pallavi;Ahn, Jaewuk;Baek, Youngbin;Yoon, Jeyong
    • Journal of Appropriate Technology
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.174-182
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    • 2020
  • The permissible limit of ammonia concentration in drinking water recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) is 1.5 mg/L. However, in the case of groundwater in Kathmandu, Nepal, the concentration of ammonia fluctuates dramatically from 0 to 120 mg/L at different locations and groundwater depths (Chapagain et al., 2010). Such a high concentration of ammonia causes aesthetic problems in drinking water, such as bad taste and odor; hence, prior treatment is required. In Kathmandu, half of the population utilizes groundwater, which is also employed for drinking water, but owing to a lack of knowledge of household water filters, residents of Kathmandu tend to depend greatly on commercially available jar water than on the installation of a proper household filtration method. Thus, in our study, we employed adsorption and reverse osmosis (RO) as two of the most viable decentralized/household treatment options to address the issue of high contamination of ammonia in drinking water. We evaluated their performances from technical and the economic perspectives using synthetically prepared groundwater at varying ammonia concentrations (50 mg/L and 15 mg/L). Consequently, it was found that adsorption via ion exchange (IE) resin was a comparatively better ammonia removal technology than RO, with 100% ammonia removal even after regeneration; the removal by RO was limited to up to 90%. Furthermore, our study suggests that IE is the most suitable ammonia removal technology for places with lower water consumption (< 50 L/day), whereas RO seemed to be a cost-effective technology for places with higher water consumption, where the daily water demand exceeds 50 L/day. Lastly, these assessments suggest that installing a suitable household treatment system would be more efficient and sustainable from both technical and economic points of view than purchasing commercially bottled water.

African Swine Fever Outbreak in North Korea and Cooperation between South and North Korea (북한지역에서 ASF발병 현황 및 남북수의협력에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Chung Hui
    • Journal of Appropriate Technology
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 2020
  • The ASF, which originated in Africa and threatens the world, landed in Asia in 2018 in China, and became a stern threat to the security of the Korean Peninsula when North Korea officially reported the ASF to the OIE in May 2019. In 1921, Montgomery, a British veterinary pathologist, made headlines by naming the African swine fever "African Swine Fever," or ASF, a disease caused by a high fatality virus that existed in East Africa. The ASF, which was a pandemic of endemic diseases in Africa, landed in Portgal around 1957 and swept through farms in Lisbon, Portugal. The ASF continued to settle in Spain and Portugal, causing 40 years of damage until the end of the 1990s, and is now in progress after landing on the Italian island of Sardinia in 1978. The virus, which landed in Portiport of Georgia on the Black Sea coast of the Black Sea in 2007, spread to Russia and caused massive damage to China in 2018, then rapidly spread to Vietnam, Laos and Myanmar in May 2019 and spread across the country, causing massive damage to the pork industry and is now in progress. Just three months after confirming the outbreak in North Korea, the outbreak at farms in Paju and Yeoncheon was confirmed on Sept. 16, 2019, leaving South Korea with the stigma of ASF-causing countries, and although the ASF's nationwide expansion has been blocked, it is currently underway in wild boars. If the ongoing ASF in the two Koreas becomes indigenous, it would be a major disaster not only for the pork industry but also for the Korean Peninsula economy. Under the current circumstances, it is impossible to focus only on veterinary areas limited to South Korea, ruling out risk factors from the ASF outbreak. Currently, it is difficult to prevent damage to the pork industry due to the ASF outbreak due to the poor water defense reality in North Korea, and as it is adjacent to China, which has a high risk of developing various epidemic diseases, there is a need for the two Koreas to jointly conduct quarantine and quarantine on the border areas. First of all, I think rapid exchange of information and education on ASF and other diseases is necessary before establishing a joint defense system on the Korean Peninsula. It is important to conduct thorough quarantine and disinfection of ASF-generated areas in North Korea, and areas bordering China and Russia, and jointly conduct thorough quarantine and control of livestock and livestock products in circulation. Cooperation by the South and North Korean water defense industries to prevent the protracted ASF on the Korean Peninsula by all means and methods is essential.

Design and Economic Analysis of Low Pressure Liquid Air Production Process using LNG cold energy (LNG 냉열을 활용한 저압 액화 공기 생산 공정 설계 및 경제성 평가)

  • Mun, Haneul;Jung, Geonho;Lee, Inkyu
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.59 no.3
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    • pp.345-358
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    • 2021
  • This study focuses on the development of the liquid air production process that uses LNG (liquefied natural gas) cold energy which usually wasted during the regasification stage. The liquid air can be transported to the LNG exporter, and it can be utilized as the cold source to replace certain amount of refrigerant for the natural gas liquefaction. Therefore, the condition of the liquid air has to satisfy the available pressure of LNG storage tank. To satisfy pressure constraint of the membrane type LNG tank, proposed process is designed to produce liquid air at 1.3bar. In proposed process, the air is precooled by heat exchange with LNG and subcooled by nitrogen refrigeration cycle. When the amount of transported liquid air is as large as the capacity of the LNG carrier, it could be economical in terms of the transportation cost. In addition, larger liquid air can give more cold energy that can be used in natural gas liquefaction plant. To analyze the effect of the liquid air production amount, under the same LNG supply condition, the proposed process is simulated under 3 different air flow rate: 0.50 kg/s, 0.75 kg/s, 1.00 kg/s, correspond to Case1, Case2, and Case3, respectively. Each case was analyzed thermodynamically and economically. It shows a tendency that the more liquid air production, the more energy demanded per same mass of product as Case3 is 0.18kWh higher than Base case. In consequence the production cost per 1 kg liquid air in Case3 was $0.0172 higher. However, as liquid air production increases, the transportation cost per 1 kg liquid air has reduced by $0.0395. In terms of overall cost, Case 3 confirmed that liquid air can be produced and transported with $0.0223 less per kilogram than Base case.