• Title/Summary/Keyword: Excess risk

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The Effect of Stochastic Taxes on Asset Prices (세금 불확실성 하의 자산 가격 결정)

  • Kim, Chang-Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.207-219
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    • 1995
  • This paper develops an equilibrium asset pricing model with taxation in the economy. The expected excess rate of return on a risky asset is shown to be an increasing function of the covariance of asset return with aggregate consumption rate changes and the covariance of asset return with the tax rates as well. Thus, the expected execss rate of return can be decomposed as the consumption risk premium and the tax premium. The capital asset pricing model derived in the absence of taxes is shown to understate the expected excess rate of return and to have a misspecification error in the economy with taxation.

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Comparison of Clinical Characteristics and Prognosis by Initial Endoscopic Severity in Caustic Injury (부식제 음독 환자에서 초기 내시경 소견의 중증도에 따른 임상 소견 및 예후 비교)

  • Lee, Sang Min;Choi, Woo Ik;Kim, Sung Jin;Jin, Sang Chan
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Clinical Toxicology
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: We investigated comparison of clinical characteristics and prognosis by initial endoscopic severity in caustic injury and then discussed predisposing factors which can be helpful in predicting the prognosis and determining the treatment. Methods: This study was a retrospective review of medical records from patients over the age of 15, who underwent initial endoscopy for caustic injury from April 2007 through November 2014. Patients were classified according to two groups based on the initial endoscopic finding by Zargar's classification: patients with grade 0, I, IIa at esophagus (low risk group) and patients with grade IIb, IIIa, IIIb at esophagus (high risk group). The two groups were then compared. Results: A total of 55 patients were included (low risk group [n=44] vs. high risk group [n=11]). Old age (p<0.001), large amount of ingestion (p<0.05), oropharyngeal symptoms (p<0.01), high SOFA score (p<0.001), high WBC count (p<0.05), low base excess (p<0.01), and HCO3 (p<0.05) were statistically significant factors in the high risk group. A poor prognosis was observed for hospital stay (p<0.001), ICU admission (p<0.001), mortality (p<0.01), and stricture (p<0.001) in the high risk group. Conclusion: Clinical characteristics including age, amount of ingestion, oropharyngeal symptoms, SOFA score, WBC count, base excess, and $HCO_3$ can be helpful in the decision to undergo initial endoscopy and risk assessment by initial endoscopic severity can be helpful in predicting prognosis and determining the treatment plan.

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A Study on the Management Criteria of Chemiclas Impurities for Drinking Water Treatment by Risk Assessment (건강위해성 평가에 의한 정수용 수처리제의 불순물 관리 기준 설정 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Yong;Beck, Young-seog;Kwon, Dong-sik;Lee, Ki-gong;Kang, Hyeong-seok
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.432-436
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    • 2004
  • The principle and methodology of risk assessment was applied to establish the quality standard of potential impurities of drinking water treatment chemicals. The impurities(arsenic, lead, cadmium, chromium, mercury, etc.) are regulated as the contained quantity of chemicals in Korea while they are regulated as the quality standard with the idea of 10% of the national safety drinking water standard in U.S.A(NSF) and Japan(JWWA). According to risk assessment of the current standard implemented in Korea, the excess cancer risk of arsenic and lead were determined in around $10^{-5}$ and the hazard quotient(HQ) of cadmium and chromium were below $10^{-2}$, respectively. And the standard concentration of the impurities are regulated as much as 2%~6% of the national drinking water quality standard. The values are more enforced rather than the standards in U.S.A(NSF) and Japan(JWWA) regulating the concentration of impurities the 10% of the national drinking water quality standard. We conclude that the impurities standard of drinking water treatment chemicals should be reconsidered comprehensively concerning the national safety drinking water quality standard and risk assessment.

Long Term Impact of Distribution Information Technology Investment on Firm Value (무선인식 유통정보기술 투자가 장기 주가수익률에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Son, Sam-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.69-83
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - This paper investigates the long term impact of RFID investment on firm value in Korea. We wand to find out why the long term performance of some firm's RFID investment is better than others. To understand the dynamics of the long term returns from RFID investment announcements, we divide our events into groups for each of the independent firm characteristic variable such as investment time period, kind of markets, industries, solvency and growth potential. We composed portfolios based on the RFID investment announcement date for each group and evaluate the monthly abnormal excess returns. Research design, data, and methodology - Based on these calendar-time portfolios, we measure the long term returns from 86 RFID investment announcements of 46 firms from 2003 to 2017. We construct the calendar-time portfolio for 3, 6, 9, 12 months of holding periods. Using the weighted least squares method, we regress the raw monthly returns of the portfolios on the Fama-French model and Carhart(1997) model. As a result, we can get the estimated risk adjusted mean monthly abnormal excess return αP for each of the calendar-time portfolio. Results - We found that early adopters, large firms, non-manufacturing firms have very significant excess returns. We also found modestly significant excess returns for financially stable firms and slow growing firms. Put together, top managers of the firms which plan to invest RFID should understand the strategic role of RFID adoption and the generalized business process of distribution information technology investment in Korea. Moreover, the findings of this paper provide useful trading strategies to the managers of large funds who are considering on investing in RFID adopting firms. Conclusions - Put together, the results of this paper give us a new insight into how the RFID and IT technology in general and other characteristic factors' interactions affect the long term performance of firms. Using the unbiased estimates of long term returns of the calendar-time portfolios, this paper extends the understandings on short term impact of RFID adoption of existing studies. This paper also extends the current understandings of firm characteristics that affect the long term performance of RFID adopting firms.

A Research for the Realness of Game Risks based on ANT (ANT를 통한 게임 위험의 실재성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Jangwon;Yoon, Joonsung
    • Journal of Korea Game Society
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.7-22
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    • 2016
  • The risk is subjectively perceived by the subject to judge. In the case of the game, game organizations and watchdog groups also recognized differently occurrence probability and intensity of risk to form a physical relationships of the game with each. Thus, we look only at the risk of their own subjective opinion, the fundamental solution is not possible. In this paper, we conducted a study on the form, occurrence point, and generating processes of risk by analyzing the physical components that make up the network of the game based on ATN in order to confirm definitely the substance and the presence of the game risk. In view of ANT, the game and humans constitute a network through their ability to act as each actor. If the gamer does not clearly recognize the nature of the ability to act of the game, the reverse control and the excess flow occur through remediation properties of the game. Therefore, it requires a more in-depth study in the future with respect to complex structure and relationships of the game-gamer network.

Feasibility assessment of longevity swap for the Korean life annuity market

  • Lee, Changsoo;Hong, Jimin;Kim, Seongmin
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.655-671
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    • 2021
  • This study analyzes the premium risk of insurers in Korea, which is expected to experience the fastest population aging in the world. Based on the Lee-Carter model, we generate 10,000 scenarios for the number of future survivors in the group of the 10,000 policyholders of life annuity. According to the result of simulation study, the probability of insurer's loss for both groups of male and female policyholders is very low. This result indicates that the premium risk of insurers is not as great as the insurer's concern. This study also suggests introduction of the longevity swap as an alternative to manage the premium risk for the insurer which sells life annuity products. The longevity swap allows insurers to hedge premium risk and reduce capital burden due to the premium risk inherent in life annuity. This study also shows through examples that the counterparty of swap deal may have excess profit in exchange for taking premium risk.

Health Risk Assessment for Residents after Exposure to Chemical Accidents: Formaldehyde (화학사고물질 노출에 따른 피해지역 주민 건강위해성평가: 폼알데하이드 사례를 중심으로)

  • Park, Sihyun;Cho, Yong-Sung;Lim, Huibeen;Park, Jihoon;Lee, Cheolmin;Hwang, Seung-Ryul;Lee, Chungsoo
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 2021
  • Objectives: Acute exposure to high concentrations of chemicals can occur when a chemical accident takes place. As such exposure can cause ongoing environmental pollution, such as in the soil and groundwater, there is a need for a tool that can assess health effects in the long term. The purpose of this study was assessing the health risks of residents living near a chemical accident site due to long-term exposure while considering the temporal concentration changes of the toxic chemicals leaked during the accident until their extinction in the environment using a multimedia environmental dynamics model. Methods: A health risk assessment was conducted on three cases of formaldehyde chemical accidents. In this study, health risk assessment was performed using a multimedia environmental dynamics model that considers the behavior of the atmosphere, soil, and water. In addition, the extinction period of formaldehyde in the environment was regarded as extinction in the environment when the concentration in the air and soil fell below the background concentration prior to the accident. The subjects of health risk assessment were classified into four groups according to age: 0-9 years old, 10-18 years old, 19-64 years old, and over 65 years old. Carcinogenic risk assessment by respiratory exposure and non-carcinogenic risk assessment by soil intake were conducted as well. Results: In the assessment of carcinogenic risk due to respiratory exposure, the excess carcinogenic risk did not exceed 1.0×10-6 in all three chemical accidents, so there was no health effect due to the formaldehyde chemical accident. As a result of the evaluation of non-carcinogenic risk due to soil intake, none of the three chemical accidents had a risk index of 1, so there was no health effect. For all three chemical accidents, the excess cancer risk and hazard index were the highest in the age group 0-9. Next, 10-18 years old, 65 years old or older, and 19-64 years old showed the highest risk. Conclusion: This study considers environmental changes after a chemical accident occurs and until the substance disappears from the environment. It also conducts a health risk assessment by reflecting the characteristics of the long-term persistence and concentration change over time. It is thought that it is of significance as a health risk assessment study reflecting the exposure characteristics of the accident substance for an actual chemical accident.

Friable Test and Risk Assessment for Asbestos in Soils using the Releasable Asbestos Sampler (RAS) (석면 비산 장비를 이용한 토양 중 석면 비산 특성 및 위해성 평가)

  • Kim, In Ja;Kim, Jeong-Wook;Ryu, Hyun Sik;Jung, Myung Chae
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.68-74
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    • 2012
  • The objective of this study is to examine a releasable asbestos sampler developed for measuring friable asbestos from soil to air controlled by wind velocity and water contents. Asbestos contaminated soil with 3.75% at the Sinsuk-asbestos mine was sampled, air-dried and sieved to 100 mesh, then homogenized during 24 hours' agitation. Various wind velocities, 1 m/s, 2 m/s, 3 m/s, and 5 m/s, were applied to evaluate releasable characteristics of the releasable asbestos sampler. In addition, soils with 1.0%, 3.4%, 4.4%, 11.0%, 16.2%, and 20.0% of water contents were also examined the amount of friable asbestos by the releasable asbestos sampler. Collected soil and air samples were analyzed by polarized light microscopy (PLM) and phase contrast microscopy (PCM), respectively. Those contents were applied to calculate an excess life cancer risk (ELCR). This study also discussed the relationship with risk assessment by a weeding scenario of activity based sampling (ABS) and field applied releasable asbestos sampler. The result was shown that friability of asbestos in soil increased with wind velocity and decreased with water content. In comparison with ELCR results, over 10E-4 of cancer risk was found in condition on < 5% water content and > 3m/s wind velocity.

The Domestic Research Trend and the Road Map of Health Risk Assessment of the Air Quality in Korea (대기환경부문 건강위해평가의 국내 연구 동향과 발전방향)

  • Shin, Dong Chun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.528-535
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    • 2013
  • Air pollution in large cities is reduced through the environmental health policies, but due to increased population and automobile, some pollutants are still a problem. These air pollutants are known to cause asthma and respiratory diseases. According to an OECD report, the number of premature deaths will increase. Hazardous air pollutants should be managed through a systematic monitoring, risk assessment, and many studies are in progress. In order to manage hazardous air pollutants, transformation of policy for the protection of human health is required. management policy through the calculation of the excess number of deaths that occur from hazardous air pollutants for the public health is necessary. Korea has put a lot of efforts for air quality, but health risk assessment should be more considered.

Analysis of Real Estate Investment Trusts' Performance By Risk Adjustment Model (위험조정모형을 활용한 미국 REITs의 부동산 유형별 성과 분석)

  • Park, Won-Seok
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.665-680
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    • 2009
  • This study aims at analyzing the performance of Real Estate Investment Trusts(REITs) by Risk Adjustment Model. The main results are as follows. Firstly, most property types of REITs gain positive(+) excess overall returns at first and second period. On the contrary, most property types of REITs gain negative(-) excess overall returns and their standard deviations are larger at financial crisis period. Secondly, lodging, regional mall and commercial mortgage show lower risk-lower return, and freestanding, apartment and specialty show higher risk-higher return than average REITs, according to the CAPM results of . Moreover CAPM results of show the characteristics of REITs as investment commodities changes into higher risk-higher return for financial crisis period. Lastly, risk adjusted demanded returns of REITs are affected positively(+) by systemic risks and negatively(-) by unsystemic risks, according to the Risk Adjustment Model results of both and . Comparing risk adjusted demanded returns of REITs with their realized returns, healthcare reveals the largest outperformance.

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