• Title/Summary/Keyword: Evaluation and decision-making

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Quantitative Assessment of Obstructive Uropathy with Diuretic Renography in Children (소아 폐쇄성 요로질환에서 이뇨 신 신티그라피의 정량적 분석)

  • Kim, Jong-Ho;Lee, Dong-Soo;Kwark, Cheol-Eun;Lee, Kyung-Han;Choi, Chang-Woon;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul;Koh, Chang-Soon;Choi, Yong;Choi, Hwang
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.239-247
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    • 1993
  • Differentiating the various causes of hydronephrosis from that of obstruction can be very difficult. The decision-making process for those instances of urinary tract dilatation that require surgical correction and those that do not is based in part on the findings of diuresis renography. The methodology for performing this test has differed among nuclear medicine practitioners and the surgical findings are occasionally discrepant from the diuretic renogram interpretation. Consequently we made an automatic computer software program that calculates the slope of the response curve. The quantitative indices, such as the injection and response t1/2 by linear-fitting and monoexponential-fitting, were compared with the visual assessment of the diuretic cinerenography and clinical outcome in 50 children (62 kidneys) with ureteropelvic junction obstruction. Pooled diuresis renogram data indicated that: (1) Visual evaluation of the diuretic cinerenography is a sensitive (87%, 54/62) tool to differentiate obstruction in suspected ureteropelvic junction obstruction. (2) The cut-off value (maximum washout t1/2 with non-obstruction) of injection and response t1/2 by linear-fitting were 40 min. (3) The sensitivity and specificity using injection and response t1/2 by linear-fitting for obstruction were 89%(23/26) and 100%(30/30), respectively. (4) Response t1/2 as well as injection t1/2 by monoexponential-fitting do not stratify children with possible ureteropelivic junction obstruction. In conclusion, quantitative assessment of diuretic renography as well as visual assessment of diuretic cinerenography correlate well with surgical and clinical outcome of suspected ureteropelvic junction obstruction.

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A Study on the Determinant Factor Analysis for the Characterization of Saemangeum New Port (새만금신항만 특화에 관한 결정요인 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Nam-Suk;Choe, Do-Won;Jeon, Young-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.263-288
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    • 2012
  • This study aims to define which factors will contribute to vitalization of Saemangeum New Port to secure international competitiveness in order to attract international shipping companies, shippers and forwarders in constructing Saemangeum New Port, and to propose subsequent implications. For research methods of the current study, a factor analysis and a decision making method of analytic hierarchy process(AHP) were used. Through precedent studies, total 11 measuring variables were selected including short entrance and exit channels, main infrastructure development project, tax cut and deregulation, and through a factor analysis, total 3 high rank evaluation factors including 'location and facilities', 'surrounding infrastructure and hydrophile property', and 'local policy and environment'. Analysis results summarizing a test of reliability of measuring variables in this study indicate that as Cronbach alpha coefficient of total 11 measuring variables were turned out to be over 0.8, it is surpassing general average 0.6, which means there is reliability.

A Study on the Calculation of Productive Rate of Return (생산투자수익률 계산방법에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Jin Wook;Kim, Kun-Woo;Kim, Seok Gon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.95-99
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    • 2015
  • The IRR(internal rate of return) is often used by investors for the evaluation of engineering projects. Unfortunately, it has serial flaws: (1) multiple real-valued IRRs may arise; (2) complex-valued IRRs may arise; (3) the IRR is, in special cases, incompatible with the net present value (NPV) in accept/reject decisions. The efforts of management scientists and economists in providing a reliable project rate of return have generated over the decades an immense amount of contributions aiming to solve these shortcomings. Especially, multiple internal rate of returns (IRRs) have a fatal flaw when we decide to accep it or not. To solve it, some researchers came up with external rate of returns (ERRs) such as ARR (Average Rate of Return) or MIRR (MIRR, Modified Internal Rate of Return). ARR or MIRR. will also always yield the same decision for a engineering project consistent with the NPV criterion. The ERRs are to modify the procedure for computing the rate of return by making explicit and consistent assumptions about the interest rate at which intermediate receipts from projects may be invested. This reinvestment could be either in other projects or in the outside market. However, when we use traditional ERRs, a volume of capital investment is still unclear. Alternatively, the productive rate of return (PRR) can settle these problems. Generally, a rate of return is a profit on an investment over a period of time, expressed as a proportion of the original investment. The time period is typically the life of a project. The PRR is based on the full life of the engineering project. but has been annualised to project one year. And the PRR uses the effective investment instead of the original investment. This method requires that the cash flow of an engineering project must be separated into 'investment' and 'loss' to calculate the PRR value. In this paper, we proposed a tabulated form for easy calculation of the PRR by modifing the profit and loss statement, and the cash flow statement.

Developing A Multi-dimensional Spatio-visual Information System (다차원기반 고정밀 공간영상정보 시스템 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Mi-Yun;Yeo, Wook-Hyun;Choi, Jin-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.649-658
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    • 2009
  • The recent emergence of the paradigm of new urban planning for building intelligent urban spaces, such as U-City and U-Eco City, of which the concept of ubiquitous technology is applied, requires high quality three-dimensional spatial information of the urban area. The aim of this study is to build a multi-dimensional spatio-visual information system that includes the solution for visualization, spatial information search, analysis, and evaluation by integrating various types of 3D-modeled spatial information concerning the large urban-size area based on the latest GIS application technology. The range of this study is the integration, visualization, and utilization of spatial information with the goal of building 3D virtual urban environment of high-quality and high-resolution by increasing the utilization of the systematic urban facilities in order to fully reflect the actual user's needs, using the aerial LiDAR data as the plan to overcome the limitations of the existing 3D urban modeling. By reproducing the virtual urban environment the most similar to the actual world through the mash-up of satellite images and aerial photos on the standard format of spatial information constituted of properties and signs, the system will be built with many analysis and utilization functions that support the view and sunlight analysis, various administrative tasks, as well as the decision making process of the city.

Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values of Financial Ratios (재무비율의 극단치에 대한 통계적 분석)

  • Joo, Jihwan
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.247-268
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    • 2021
  • Investors mainly use PER and PBR among financial ratios for valuation and investment decision-making. I conduct an analysis of two basic financial ratios from a statistical perspective. Financial ratios contain key accounting numbers which reflect firm fundamentals and are useful for valuation or risk analysis such as enterprise credit evaluation and default prediction. The distribution of financial data tends to be extremely heavy-tailed, and PER and PBR show exceedingly high level of kurtosis and their extreme cases often contain significant information on financial risk. In this respect, Extreme Value Theory is required to fit its right tail more precisely. I introduce not only GPD but exGPD. GPD is conventionally preferred model in Extreme Value Theory and exGPD is log-transformed distribution of GPD. exGPD has recently proposed as an alternative of GPD(Lee and Kim, 2019). First, I conduct a simulation for comparing performances of the two distributions using the goodness of fit measures and the estimation of 90-99% percentiles. I also conduct an empirical analysis of Information Technology firms in Korea. Finally, exGPD shows better performance especially for PBR, suggesting that exGPD could be an alternative for GPD for the analysis of financial ratios.

Analysis on the Status of Joint Forestry Project in National Forest (국유림 공동산림사업 실태분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dong-Hyeon;Ko, Chi-Ung;Kim, Dong-Geun
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the status of the joint forest project, which is one of the national forest management system, by using stakeholder participation, transparency of decision making, accountability of actors and stakeholders, The questionnaire survey was conducted using the 5 - point scale and the written form. As a result of the questionnaire survey, various stakeholder participation items had the highest opportunity to participate with an average of 3.3 and the lowest score with 2.3 points for establishing conflict and conflict resolution structures. Transparency was analyzed to be 3.4 points for the project disclosure, 2.7 points for information sharing and education promotion activities for local residents, 3.3 points for the detailed role of the project implementer, and 2.7 points for internal and external monitoring and evaluation of the project with various stakeholders. The results of this research, analyzed through the participatory forest management index, are deemed to be used as basic data for the establishment of a plan for the revitalization of national forest participation management.

Evaluation of Malignancy Risk of Ampullary Tumors Detected by Endoscopy Using 2-[18F]FDG PET/CT

  • Pei-Ju Chuang;Hsiu-Po Wang;Yu-Wen Tien;Wei-Shan Chin;Min-Shu Hsieh;Chieh-Chang Chen;Tzu-Chan Hong;Chi-Lun Ko;Yen-Wen Wu;Mei-Fang Cheng
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.243-256
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    • 2024
  • Objective: We aimed to investigate whether 2-[18F]fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (2-[18F]FDG PET/CT) can aid in evaluating the risk of malignancy in ampullary tumors detected by endoscopy. Materials and Methods: This single-center retrospective cohort study analyzed 155 patients (79 male, 76 female; mean age, 65.7 ± 12.7 years) receiving 2-[18F]FDG PET/CT for endoscopy-detected ampullary tumors 5-87 days (median, 7 days) after the diagnostic endoscopy between June 2007 and December 2020. The final diagnosis was made based on histopathological findings. The PET imaging parameters were compared with clinical data and endoscopic features. A model to predict the risk of malignancy, based on PET, endoscopy, and clinical findings, was generated and validated using multivariable logistic regression analysis and an additional bootstrapping method. The final model was compared with standard endoscopy for the diagnosis of ampullary cancer using the DeLong test. Results: The mean tumor size was 17.1 ± 7.7 mm. Sixty-four (41.3%) tumors were benign, and 91 (58.7%) were malignant. Univariable analysis found that ampullary neoplasms with a blood-pool corrected peak standardized uptake value in earlyphase scan (SUVe) ≥ 1.7 were more likely to be malignant (odds ratio [OR], 16.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.13-36.18; P < 0.001). Multivariable analysis identified the presence of jaundice (adjusted OR [aOR], 4.89; 95% CI, 1.80-13.33; P = 0.002), malignant traits in endoscopy (aOR, 6.80; 95% CI, 2.41-19.20; P < 0.001), SUVe ≥ 1.7 in PET (aOR, 5.43; 95% CI, 2.00-14.72; P < 0.001), and PET-detected nodal disease (aOR, 5.03; 95% CI, 1.16-21.86; P = 0.041) as independent predictors of malignancy. The model combining these four factors predicted ampullary cancers better than endoscopic diagnosis alone (area under the curve [AUC] and 95% CI: 0.925 [0.874-0.956] vs. 0.815 [0.732-0.873], P < 0.001). The model demonstrated an AUC of 0.921 (95% CI, 0.816-0.967) in candidates for endoscopic papillectomy. Conclusion: Adding 2-[18F]FDG PET/CT to endoscopy can improve the diagnosis of ampullary cancer and may help refine therapeutic decision-making, particularly when contemplating endoscopic papillectomy.

The Study on the Elaboration of Technology Valuation Model and the Adequacy of Volatility based on Real Options (실물옵션 기반 기술가치 평가모델 정교화와 변동성 유효구간에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Lee, Jongtaik;Kim, Byunghoon;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.732-753
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    • 2017
  • Recently, when evaluating the technology values in the fields of biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and medicine, we have needed more to estimate those values in consideration of the period and cost for the commercialization to be put into in future. The existing discounted cash flow (DCF) method has limitations in that it can not consider consecutive investment or does not reflect the probabilistic property of commercialized input cost of technology-applied products. However, since the value of technology and investment should be considered as opportunity value and the information of decision-making for resource allocation should be taken into account, it is regarded desirable to apply the concept of real options, and in order to reflect the characteristics of business model for the target technology into the concept of volatility in terms of stock price which we usually apply to in evaluation of a firm's value, we need to consider 'the continuity of stock price (relatively minor change)' and 'positive condition'. Thus, as discussed in a lot of literature, it is necessary to investigate the relationship among volatility, underlying asset values, and cost of commercialization in the Black-Scholes model for estimating the technology value based on real options. This study is expected to provide more elaborated real options model, by mathematically deriving whether the ratio of the present value of the underlying asset to the present value of the commercialization cost, which reflects the uncertainty in the option pricing model (OPM), is divided into the "no action taken" (NAT) area under certain threshold conditions or not, and also presenting the estimation logic for option values according to the observation variables (or input values).

Development of a technology valuation method for buyers in technology transfer (기술이전을 위한 기술수요자 중심의 가치평가 방법론 개발)

  • Yun, DooSeob;Park, Inchae;Yoon, Byungun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.11
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    • pp.155-167
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    • 2016
  • Technology valuation is necessary for determining the feasibility of technology commercialization. However, existing methods focus only on technology evaluation, with limitation in sufficiently reflecting buyer viewpoint. In addition, it causes a gap between estimated value and market value. Therefore, this research suggests a new technology valuation method which focuses on the perspectives of buyers. Technology factors, buyer factors and market factors are first determined and their relationships are analyzed. Second, based on the relationships, profit projections are calculated using the discount cash flow method. Finally, profit projections for each year are discounted. The proposed method was applied using the ubiquitous home network system and audio service and illumination control method and results compared with the value of a technology valuation guide distributed by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy. The technology valuation approach used in this research is quantitative and systematic and can be used as a decision making support tool in technology transfer, reflecting various perspectives of stakeholders.

The Current State and Tasks of Citizen Science in Korea (한국 시민과학의 현황과 과제)

  • Park, Jin Hee
    • Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.7-41
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    • 2018
  • The projects of citizen science which is originated from citizen data collecting action driven by governmental institutes and science associations have been implemented with different form of collaboration with scientists. The themes of citizen science has extended from the ecology to astronomy, distributed computing, and particle physics. Citizen science could contribute to the advancement of science through cost-effective science research based on citizen volunteer data collecting. In addition, citizen science enhance the public understanding of science by increasing knowledge of citizen participants. The community-led citizen science projects could raise public awareness of environmental problems and promote the participation in environmental problem-solving. Citizen science projects based on local tacit knowledge can be of benefit to the local environmental policy decision making and implementation of policy. These social values of citizen science make many countries develop promoting policies of citizen science. The korean government also has introduced some citizen science projects. However there are some obstacles, such as low participation of citizen and scientists in projects which the government has to overcome in order to promote citizen science. It is important that scientists could recognize values of citizen science through the successful government driven citizen science projects and the evaluation tool of scientific career could be modified in order to promote scientist's participation. The project management should be well planned to intensify citizen participation. The government should prepare open data policy which could support a data reliability of the community-led monitoring projects. It is also desirable that a citizen science network could be made with the purpose of sharing best practices of citizen science.